billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - september 9, 2023

…you know, it would be just my luck to get sick coming out of a long weekend into what could easily be my biggest month of the year in my IRL job, my channels, and my personal life, so please excuse me if this episode is a little rough around the edges. Which is kind of a shame because this week is indicative of the paradigm shift I’ve been referencing the past few weeks, and perhaps the most blazing example of what could be a very real trend, especially this year.

So let’s get right to it in the top 10, and the new #1 that was surprisingly easy to predict: ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan, featuring Kacey Musgraves. And this feels historic, not just in how I’m a fan of both acts and have been for years, and to see this happen feels damn near unprecedented, but also in the context of what this represents: two acts representing a sound in country music that Nashville has been very slow to support or in the case of Musgraves outright rejected, getting the crossover success in a way both have richly deserved for years if not a decade; for context, ‘Follow Your Arrow’ peaked at #60 ten years ago, and now the two together debut at #1. I feel obligated to mention this will not stay at #1 - it only has big sales thanks to well-timed discounts and monumental streaming, it will fall back. And sadly ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs is not going to be what replaces it - it’s got strength in every channel especially on radio, but you can argue it has peaked and is out of momentum. And that means what’s likely to hit #1 next week is at #3 right now, ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat: streaming is ridiculously strong, sales are up, and radio supports it; it’ll be on the margins, but I think she has the edge. This leaves ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen clearly on the way out at #4 - getting beaten on streams and dropped fast on the radio will do that - and ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #5 - radio is stable but the streaming margin isn’t there. All of this places ‘Rich Men North Of Richmond’ by Oliver Anthony down off the top to #6, and that doesn’t surprise me - he still has streaming and sales, it’s just taken a backseat because radio isn’t really moving on it, and the novelty is fading. But then we have another new arrival to the top 10: ‘Snooze’ by SZA at #7, pretty much on the basis of strong radio and streaming starting to get a little more traction, albeit not yet near its old peak. And then we have another new entry at #8: ‘Used To Be Young’ by Miley Cyrus at #8. We’ll get into the track more later on, but this is set up to be a hit, especially with traction in every channel to start including radio. This leaves ‘Dance The Night’ by Dua Lipa at #9 - thank consistent radio stability for this one - and ‘fukumean’ by Gunna sliding to #10, mostly because radio gains cannot compensate fast enough for streaming losses.

Speaking of which, our losers and dropouts, and we have some big ones in the latter category, as to be expected when an album bomb of Zach Bryan’s size deals this much damage. For the songs that clinched the year end list, ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii, ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma, ‘Next Thing You Know’ by Jordan Davis, ‘Search & Rescue’ by Drake, ‘La Bebe’ by Yng Lvcas and Peso Pluma, and then all the songs knocked off well short, like ‘Baby Don’t Hurt Me’ by David Guetta, Anne-Marie and Coi Leray, ‘I Can See You’ by Taylor Swift, ‘You, Me & Whiskey’ by Justin Moore and Priscilla Block, and ‘Fight The Feeling’ by Rod Wave. And for losers… it’s one of those weeks where it encompasses nearly half of the goddamn charts, so outside of the top ten, let’s instead look at the songs that didn’t shift that much: still a lot but not insurmountable. For starters, the songs with radio stability near the top, like ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez at 11, ‘vampire’ by Olivia Rodrigo at 12, ‘Barbie World’ by Ice Spice, Nicki Minaj and Aqua at 13, ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at 15, ‘All My Life’ by Lil Durk and J. Cole at 16, ‘Religiously’ by Bailey Zimmerman at 21 - I’m still shocked this got this high - and ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA at 27. Then we have the country songs with more stability, like ‘Standing Room Only’ by Tim McGraw off the debut to 62, ‘White Horse’ by Chris Stapleton at 63, ‘Angels Don’t Always Have Wings’ by Thomas Rhett at 77, and ‘Girl In Mine’ by Parmalee at 99 - I’m separating these from the Zach Bryan songs that held stability, which is telling because they weren’t cannibalized by the album bomb, and that shows ‘Dawns’ with Maggie Rogers at 76 and ‘Oklahoma Smokeshow’ at 88. Then we have a few Latin songs that held their own and are a little tougher to gauge with stability, like ‘LALA’ by Myke Towers at 54, ‘Lady Gaga’ by Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H at 56, ‘Un x100to’ by Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny at 57, and ‘Amargura’ by Karol G at 90. Then there’s the rest… ‘Seven’ by Jungkook and Latto up to 28, ‘Popular’ by The Weeknd, Playboi Carti and Madonna at 71, ‘Oh U Went’ by Young Thug and Drake at 81, ‘See You Again’ by Tyler The Creator and Kali Uchis at 87, and depressingly, ‘Summer Too Hot’ by Chris Brown at 96 off the debut.

Now here’s where things get a bit interesting: we have no returns this week, but we did see two gains: ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims to 82, and ‘Good Good’ by Usher, Summer Walker and 21 Savage up to 65 - apparently the radio is really behind the latter one, even if the streaming isn’t there, which honestly surprises me more than it should. But the big news here is, of course, Zach Bryan’s album bomb, where all sixteen songs hit the Hot 100 and that places us in major album bomb territory, in other words the top 20 and the best or worst. And with that… ‘Oklahoman Son’ at 47, ‘Tradesman’ at 44, ‘Jake’s Piano - Long Island’ at 41, ‘Fear and Friday’s (Poem)’ at 39 - the full song hit 24 - ‘Smaller Acts’ at 38, ‘El Dorado’ at 31, ‘Ticking’ at 29, ‘Summertime’s Close’ at 23, and ‘Overtime’ at 22.

Alright, still have a hefty list here, let’s get it started with something I didn’t quite expect…

98. ‘On My Mama’ by Victoria Monet - I’ll admit I’m a little surprised to see Victoria Monet chart here. It’s not the first time she’s hit the Hot 100 - there was a song with Ariana Grande back in 2019 that I thought was really forgettable - but in certain R&B circles she’s made quite a few waves, first in 2020 with Jaguar and now this year with the sequel. And with this song… it’s a little tough to gauge, because there’s a lot of 2000s throwback touches with the horns and Chalie Boy sample and spare percussion, especially with the self-love sexy swaggering affirmations that remind me a lot of Ciara, but the bassline is way more sinuous than the majority of R&B from that era, and it does give the song some tangible groove, even if there’s a part of me that finds it a little slow. The larger problem is that Victoria Monet still doesn’t really impress me as a singer - yes, she can sell this without coming across like she’s trying too hard, but I feel like there should be more magnetism or texture to carry a song that’s trying to sell so much ego. I get how and why this works, it’s fine enough… but I feel like I should like it a lot more.

97. ‘Primera Cita’ by Carin Leon - so I’m a bit surprised it took this long for Carin Leon to notch more music on the Hot 100 after his collab with Grupo Frontera that won me over on him; he’s got a good voice and seemed to carry a bit more maturity in his content, I was genuinely intrigued to hear this and you wouldn’t catch me saying that about a lot of regional Mexican acts. And… yeah, I really like this - it’s a much slower Latin country track that has a more soulful timbre in the horns and organs that if I didn’t know better may have cribbed a few notes from Chris Stapleton; and unlike a lot of peers in this lane, the mix is warm and burnished and really professionally balanced, the song sounds great even before we get to the trading of brief solos! And when I translated the lyrics, I found more to like - it’s a thoughtful reflection on a first date where the forbidden chemistry feels palpable but where it went awry along the way, and the old-fashioned romance balances its swagger really well. So yeah, this is really damn good and I’d love to hear more like it on the charts - the more regional Mexican music that goes in this direction, I’d call that a win.

94. ‘There I Go’ by Gucci Mane, J. Cole & Mike Will Made It - I heard about the buzz and backlash behind this song even before I heard it, and I’m not surprised by that: J. Cole is a weird pairing with Gucci Mane, even with the latter getting in on his elder statesman territory which is a lane that still feels bizarre that we’ve just accepted. And the song… I’m going to come out and say it, this reminds way too much of when Logic tried to join Juicy J and French Montana on that strip club song ‘Twisted’ back in late 2019, the energy just feels wrong and J. Cole sounds so out of place, although in this case less for trying too hard and more for not trying at all. I’m not saying that Gucci sounds that good either - it’s pretty flimsy luxury rap and flexing against a basic tinkling beat that doesn’t do anything interesting from Mike Will Made It - but at least he sounds like he fits in this environment than J. Cole trying to sound relaxed and instead has this odd sanctimonious energy, the guy who wants to condescend to how other people party but really doesn’t have the moral high ground - and apparently is wearing his shirt inside out, according to the hook, so he doesn’t look better. I’ve been suspicious that J. Cole’s ‘streak’ of hot verses has fallen off for a while, and this confirms it - utterly disposable at best, pretty rough at worst.

80. ‘Sittin’ On Top Of The World’ by Burna Boy - okay, so the more I’ve listened to Burna Boy, the more I’ve found stuff I like… but I’ve struggled to get into a full album outside of isolated singles. Granted, ‘Last Last’ was one of my favourite hits of last year and I was at least curious about this… and this is a curveball, because it has less afrobeat texture in the percussion and more a throwback R&B vibe with the scratching, the bassline, some of the synths, and especially the chipmunked Brandy sample. I don’t dislike that vibe - in fact I’d argue the groove is really good - but Burna Boy’s very relaxed delivery doesn’t really do a ton with it, the sort of hangout song where being chill is the point but it almost tilts to having no real energy at all, where it completely slips into the background and leaves me wondering if I like this more due to nostalgia than anything more substantial. It’s okay, I guess, but I generally like my hangout songs to have a bit more energy - not bad, not great though.

37. ‘Holy Roller’ by Zach Bryan ft. Sierra Ferrell - I think some folks who saw my review of Zach Bryan’s self-titled album might be a bit surprised that I’m covering this one, mostly because while I consider it a great song, it’s the sort of track that could have been incredible if Sierra Ferrell was actually given more to do - I’ve never fully gotten into her sound, but she’s a really good singer and just having her provide background vocals for Zach Bryan feels like a misstep. That being said, this song is still excellent - the hazy guitars echoing over a more expansive mix with the touches of pedal steel pouring over the acoustics on the bridge, the more traditional structure that works so well with the ragged textures that works for this sort of half-drunk, down-on-their-luck travellers falling in love, where if God’s being found, it’s in those little moments. Just a really damn great indie country sound - and yeah, I’m a sucker for it, but damn, this is excellent.

20. ‘Tourniquet’ by Zach Bryan - a lot of folks have highlighted this as a big highlight on the album, and I’ll be honest, it really wasn’t for me. It’s a good song - the piano builds to a nice bassy stomp and the drums have more ragged propulsive punch than you might expect, I dig the fuzz of the guitar on the second verse, and the content leaning on the metaphor of the tourniquet to try and help salve the bleeding of a fellow performer who is spiraling out of control works effectively. I guess if I have complaints it’s twofold: firstly that it reminds me way too much of songs that Jason Isbell has done better just this year, and second that this song doesn’t really explode the way it’s set up to go off, it feels like it runs out of gas a little early. Again, it’s good… but there’s better on the album.

19. ‘Single Soon’ by Selena Gomez - so I like ‘Calm Down’ a lot, it’s been a bright spot in 2023 on the Hot 100 for a really striking vibe… and yet while Selena Gomez is the artist that’s probably most responsible for the American crossover, I don’t really consider it her song compared to Rema, and it’s not a single that really strikes a lot of attention. So I’ll admit I was worried to see this get pushed, especially as it’s not really tied to an album, more a throwaway that was supposed to be on Rare but was discarded and then reworked for a release. And… why does this feel like an attempt to recreate a more understated Taylor Swift synthpop song in the vocal flourishes but with the production completely mishandled? All of those glassy synths around the chalky percussion that grind against the front of the mix do nothing to flatter the sharper groove, and while the multitracking is doing some work to make this a bit more anthemic, Gomez is not the force of personality to sell this, especially with the somewhat capricious vibe in the lyrics, where she knows they both had fun but it’s now time to be single soon. I’ve said before that Selena Gomez needs production she can fit within rather than be asked to control, and this is asking for all of the wrong answers - I like her more than most… I think this is pretty bad, next!

18. ‘East Side Of Sorrow’ by Zach Bryan - now this is more like it - the first song on the album I’d argue really takes off with Zach Bryan thinking back on his time in the service and the loss of his mother and what it’s all really for in the end, a question to God where the answer is ‘well, you have to keep going’, even as Bryan gets self-referential and interrogates whether it’s truly healthy to live like this or chronicle so much of his pain in art that he has to keep performing. And while I love the horns that fit with the military callback and how the percussion ramps effectively into a good crescendo with the ragged choppy guitars, what I think I like most is the final line on the third verse referencing the Turnpike Troubadours getting back together to record an album that actually against all odds dropped on the same day Bryan did, proof that if they can keep the flame going in a very similar lane, he can too. Yes, I know part of the reason I like this is the indie country texture and reference, but when it works this well, I can’t complain - another excellent song!

17. ‘Spotless’ by Zach Bryan ft. The Lumineers - You know I’ve seen The Lumineers live multiple times, and have never been all that impressed with them? To me they fall into a brand of pop folk that lives and dies on hooks over writing or production or texture, and The Lumineers can get very boring very fast if they don’t have those hooks, even if their readymade accessibility has allowed them to be a very easy booking. But while ‘Spotless’ was fine, it’s also easily my least favourite song on the album mostly because it feels like Bryan playing into The Lumineers’ formula than the other way around - Bryan underplays in the harmonies with Wesley Schultz, the production feels sterile and more clunky than it should in trying to balance the acoustics, I really don’t like that weedy guitar flourish across the hook, and the writing of this messy relationship where nobody is perfect feels both weirdly overwritten and sour, a first draft that hasn’t nailed the tone well. This is the sort of crossover material I was dreading Warner would have Zach Bryan make, but given he’s co-headlined shows with The Lumineers, this has the feel of a one-off favour - let’s keep it that way.

14. ‘Hey Driver’ by Zach Bryan ft. The War and Treaty - whereas this is a collaboration I like a lot! I haven’t really had a chance to get into The War And Treaty the way I’d like - they dropped an album this year that got some pretty damn solid reviews on the indie country circuit for their blend of country and gospel, and the fact that Zach Bryan pulled them onboard for a pretty ramshackle piano-and-acoustic ballad is an interesting showcase where Mike Trotter can simply belt his heart out. And while I wish Tanya Trotter was given more lead space to sing beyond backing vocals, there’s so much to like about the shaggy conversational lyrics with a driver who probably has the patience of a saint to be dealing with the half-drunken pretensions and mess that’s being showcased, and I just love that little piano touch on the final verse. And I’ll say it: Zach Bryan using his newfound platform to elevate really damn talented Black voices in country is a huge win - this is how a scene can grow and mature, and the song is great to boot. I feel like I really need to get around to that War and Treaty album at some point, I think I’d like it.

8. ‘Used to Be Young’ by Miley Cyrus - I’ve said before that outside of ‘Flowers’, it really felt like Endless Summer Vacation left little to no impact on this year, especially with ‘Jaded’ feeling like a very belated and underpowered radio single. This is from the album’s reissue and I’ll admit I was intrigued to see that it was produced by Shawn Everett and was touching on many of the events of Miley’s eventful 2013… and I’ll admit I’m a little torn on it. In terms of content, I think it’s got some weight in Miley’s pensive reflections on her messy party years and how this song isn’t really looking down on them; she’s just moved on, they were good times, but she’s just not in that place right now, and that’s fine. What I don’t like is the production on this, which feels like three ideas are colliding with each other, from the way too close and compressed vocals against the muffled pianos and acoustics that try to open into a more bombastic power ballad, but then we get more flattened tinkles to pair with pealing electric guitar that bizarrely has no body or sizzle, along with some gooey synths drizzled over everything that seem to be another attempt to slather psychedelia over a song that really doesn’t need it. I guess it would make sense for a song that is grappling with messy emotions, but by the time fireworks are going off over the utter lack of groove or potent percussion, I’m completely underwhelmed. I get what it’s doing, and I understand this is where Miley is right now… shame the music’s not that good.

1. ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves - I think folks will consider this an obvious cliche that of course this is what I think is the best song from the album - I’ve been cheerleading for Kacey Musgraves for ten years, and to see her finally get to this point, even in a duet, especially as often as MCA Nashville and Music Row screwed her over, it feels like something has been finally made right. Because let’s be real: even though the production is probably the most polished and refined of any song on the album with its spare acoustics opening into a more spacious, strings-touched mix with that deeper percussion, Zach Bryan himself does not sound great on this song; yes, it’s intentional almost how slurred over and messy his delivery sounds, but it’s no guarantee that can work especially juxtaposed with this cleaner production. Granted, the writing is excellent - painting the messy picture of a relationship where it’s clear she awoke something in him that he wasn’t prepared to deal with, and then the liquor got in the way for both of them - but it’s Kacey who saves this song with her endlessly expressive delivery where she doesn’t hold herself as blameless for falling in love with this person, memories she’ll never forget - and if you know anything about Kacey Musgraves and her first husband Ruston Kelly, even if this is not directly referencing him, there are certain points of reference on her verse that feel rooted in that experience if you heard his album this year. In short… yeah, this song is incredible, it’s a miracle it went to #1, I just hope it sticks around.

And yeah, obviously it’s the best of the week, but there is a tie for Honourable Mention: ‘Holy Roller’ with Sierra Ferrell, and ‘Primera Cita’ by Carin Leon - what can I say, it really impressed me! Now for the worst… I was going to give it to Gucci Mane, J. Cole, and Mike Will Made It for ‘There I Go’, but it’s only getting dishonourable mention because it’s more exasperating than outright crap, which goes to ‘Single Soon’ by Selena Gomez for some truly awful production. Next week… I have no clue what the fallout from this will look like, it’s going to be a weird one!