billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - september 30, 2023

I feel like this might be a difficult week to gauge in terms of chart impact, or rather the suspicion that it feels muted but probably isn’t - and yes, I’m saying that about a week with an album bomb and a song debuting at #1 from two of our biggest artists in recent years. Maybe it’s a case of greater mainstream groundswell than I’m seeing - I always find myself a little surprised just how consistently Rod Wave draws numbers with an increasingly entrenched formula, just as true this week - but you’d think there’d be more conversation than there is outside of specific niches or fandom…

Well, maybe it’s two different conversations, and to delineate that, let’s start with our top ten and our new #1: ‘Slime You Out’ by Drake, featuring SZA. I’ll be talking about the song itself later on, but let’s make this clear, it got to #1 on streaming and I don’t have a lot of faith that it’s going to last, mostly because the radio has been slow to get onboard and we have considerable competition coming from the album bomb next week. That takes us neatly to our #2 that’ll likely go back to #1 next week, ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat - radio is surging, it rules sales, and streaming is still strong, it’s most equipped to retake the top spot. This puts ‘Snooze’ by SZA in an interesting position at #3 - streaming is up huge and radio’s been consistently strong all week, it doesn’t have the momentum of other songs but as a sleeper stopgap it could well make a play. What it does do is strand ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs at #4, where it spent the majority of this week wavering at the top on radio and regaining some streaming, although again, its momentum is well spent. This takes us to ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves, which is getting a pop radio push to support its massive streaming - not a country one, which I feel is very revealing, see my comments from last week. It did hold over ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #6, which has absolutely peaked on the radio despite streaming having a good week - I think an album bomb that lands high enough probably knocks this back a lot, and speaking of which, ‘vampire’ by Olivia Rodrigo tumbled back off the top spot to #7 as its album bomb faded and radio is dropping it fast, though it did maintain more streaming than you might expect. Still was enough to hold over ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen at #8 - thank radio losses for that, despite a better week on streaming - and then we have our last two that held position: ‘fukumean’ by Gunna at #9, which had a good week on streaming and the radio, and ‘Dance The Night’ by Dua Lipa at #10, which spent its week declining on the radio but it at least still has a margin.

This takes us neatly to our losers and dropouts, and there’s a decent chunk of the latter category this time beyond a bunch of Zach Bryan songs from the album bomb exiting… hell, ‘Dawns’ with Maggie Rogers even wound up as one of the songs leaving having notched its twenty weeks never getting enough of a breakthrough to make a year end list, alongside ‘K-POP’ by Travis Scott, Bad Bunny and The Weeknd and ‘TQM’ by Fuerza Regida also falling well short. And we had a lot of losers here too, most of which we can chalk up to album bombs and let’s start with whatever Zach Bryan has left: ‘Hey Driver’ with The War And Treaty at 50, ‘Tourniquet’ at 60, ‘Spotless’ with The Lumineers at 70, and ‘East Side Of Sorrow’ at 75. Then we have a lot more from Olivia Rodrigo: ‘get him back!’ at 21, ‘all american bitch’ at 36, ‘the grudge’ at 52, ‘lacy’ at 59, ‘making the bed’ at 62, ‘logical’ at 63, ‘love is embarrassing’ at 65, ‘ballad of a homeschooled girl’ at 66, ‘pretty isn’t pretty’ at 83, and ‘teenage dream’ at 96. And hell, Travis Scott also saw losses for ‘TELEKINESIS’ with Future and SZA at 78 and ‘FE!N’ with Playboi Carti to 94, in case you were curious if they were sticking around. We do have a few continued losers - ‘LALA’ by Myke Towers at 69, ‘Deli’ by Ice Spice at 81, ‘Mi Ex Tenia Razon’ by Karol G at 64, ‘Bury Me In Georgia’ by Kane Brown at 86, and ‘Put It On Da Floor Again’ by Latto and Cardi B at 100, but as for the rest, it’s a mixed bag. ‘Bongos’ by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion lost big off the debut to 31 - so did ‘Bipolar’ by Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nunez, and Junior H at 90 - ‘Everything I Love’ by Morgan Wallen slid to 77, ‘Sabor Fresa’ by Fuerza Regida is still sticking around at 84, ‘In Your Love’ by Tyler Childers took a hit to 85, ‘Oh U Went’ by Young Thug and Drake dropped to 89, ‘Johnny Dang’ by That Mexican OT, Paul Wall and DRODi is just not getting traction at 91, ‘Angels Don’t Always Have Wings’ by Thomas Rhett hit 97, and ‘Where She Goes’ by Bad Bunny looks like it’s getting rotated out at 98.

Now our gains were pretty predictable this week - no returns, but ‘Thinkin Bout Me’ by Morgan Wallen saw a small spike to 17 because its radio and streaming are pretty solid - similar case for streaming around ‘Lady Gaga’ by Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros, and Junior H at 37. But the big story here is Rod Wave with the Nostalgia album bomb, as we saw big spikes for ‘Call Your Friends’ at 18, ‘Come See Me’ at 19, and ‘Fight the Feeling’ at 28. And given that we are comfortably in album bomb territory with fifteen new songs from Rod Wave, we’re looking only at those that are among the best or worst or in the top twenty, so with that… ‘Rap Beef’ at 93, ‘Back Lit’ at 80, ‘Love Story / Interlude’ at 79, ‘Pass You By’ at 73, ‘Love For A Thug’ at 56, ‘Checkmate’ at 55, ‘Crazy’ at 45 - cute little Paramore interpolation there - ‘H64’ at 51, ‘Nostalgia’ at 40, ‘Long Journey’ at 39, ‘Great Gatsby’ at 30, and ‘Boyz Don’t Cry’ at 25.

Alright, that makes things considerably more reasonable, so let’s get this going with…

99. ‘Lil Boo Thang’ by Paul Russell - it feels like it’s been a bit since I’ve heard a flagrantly obvious Tiktok bait single, so let’s meet Paul Russell, who actually seems like he had a few projects in the late 2010s but blew up off of this single which got him snatched up by Arista, relying on a very obvious sample of The Emotions where Russell effectively copies over a phenomenal soul groove and far more potent vocals with a pushy, low-rent Bruno Mars impression. I think what annoys me about this is that the production is quite good - I like the horns, I like the groove, it’s a good interpolation… but Paul Russell is a guy who thinks he’s way cooler than he is in a very mid-2010s sort of way, or it needed to be funnier than it is. Shooting your shot like 2K or going a little too hard on the prechorus to entice this girl from her boyfriend or the line ‘you a ten, baby girl, but I’m the one’ - where ‘the’ is putting in a lot of work - I dunno, the production means I don’t hate it, but I also think this isn’t quite in the nostalgia window yet and could be really obnoxious for the wrong audience, just saying.

88. ‘Strangers’ by Kenya Grace - alright, another artist that I’ve never heard before now… and wow, someone heard PinkPantheress and really wants to tap into a more refined version of that sound. Now in all due fairness, Kenya Grace both wrote and produced this song, and it’s her major label debut single at Warner after going viral for another song… and I have to say, I’m very pleasantly surprised by how much I like this! The pulsating synthline behind the drum’n’bass percussion, Kenya Grace’s softspoken delivery, the subtle acoustic touches that begin to build around the second chorus and bridge, and how the writing hits a specific moment of sad melancholy that in the aftermath of a failed relationship, what has followed has felt so disposable, a string of hookups that leave her feeling numb and lonely, and the faster patter evoking the late night drive is really effective in selling it. It reminds me of something that would have crossed over from the UK dance charts in the mid-90s and that’s a compliment, a lot of Everything But The Girl vibes. So yeah, I have no clue if it’s going to stick, but I think this is great, check it out!

87. ‘Another One Of Me’ by Diddy, French Montana & The Weeknd ft. 21 Savage - you know, I was talking to my trainer last week about the new Diddy album and how he was mostly behind it because he grew up with that brand of R&B in the mid-to-late 90s, especially with the big obvious samples. Now I’m not as burned out on it as you might think, but for me it comes down to being able to do something newer with them, not just an obvious appropriation of a classic because you have no other ideas. This kind of hits a weird middle ground - apparently The Weeknd wrote the original draft of this back in 2012 for Kiss Land and the song has bounced around in some form for a decade, and there’s no way to ignore Phil Collins’ drums from ‘In The Air Tonight’ ending every verse, but that’s not as distracting on how we have verses from French Montana and 21 Savage that feel incredibly clunky, especially given how much ego is in the flex. Nobody wants to hear French reference NFTs in 2023, where his threats are incredibly flimsy, and while 21 and The Weeknd can play into darker ‘bad boy’ impulses - pardon the pun - this is also a song where 21 Savage compares himself to a hockey puck and it also doesn’t match with Diddy’s prosperity gospel verse at the end of the song! I’ll give the song credit for doing a bit more with the sample than just obviously ripping off the drums - though it doesn’t blend with the trap percussion on the hook at all - and it at least sounds expensive… but dig even a bit deeper and this is a mess, I can’t recommend it.

71. ‘Keep It G’ by Rod Wave - so this is probably tied for my favourite song on the album, and it’s a little tough to pin down precisely why. Yeah, the heavily autotuned and pitch-corrected female vocals crooning as an opener against the ragged guitar, what sounds a little like pedal steel, and the brittle trap whir did manage to hook me, but then Rod Wave steps up with two surprisingly aggressive verses that build really well - hey look, he discovered structure, and with the sampled interlude, it allows the song to breathe effectively. Moreover, it creates a surprising amount of palpable menace and tragedy - it starts with chasing flexes that don’t satisfy, but then the song gets shockingly violent in its threats, especially on the second verse where he hears an old man talk about a home invasion where Rod Wave’s palpable disgust at striking at civilians comes through; he's at the point where he could just be way more efficient, which is dark as hell especially against this production and how exhausted he sounds. I think I just appreciate the knife’s edge tonal balance as a really impressive song, and while we’re here…

61. ‘2018’ by Rod Wave & Sadie Jean - the album closer, and I’ll admit I was more impressed by Sadie Jean carrying the hook and first two verses in a very liberal interpolation of her single ‘WYD Now?’ from 2021, which is a pretty spare drippy piano ballad that definitely is glancing at Phoebe Bridgers and Olivia Rodrigo and in my opinion gets a lot more interesting suffocated in murky autotune here as the distant figure that crosses the haunted nostalgia of this album, the other one who got out and is trying to move on and yet can’t help but keep looking back and wondering what if. Rod Wave plays himself here and his verse is not stellar - a lot of themes repeating themselves from the album, especially in his come-up story and being dissatisfied with success, unable to find more to write about, but with the other voice in the picture there’s dimensionality to the song that feels more unique - this many albums in hitting so many of the same notes, having more voices to contrast with Rod Wave helps flesh out his story, and I think this is a really strong album closer. Overall… yeah, I really like this too, check it out!

33. ‘Greedy’ by Tate McRae - full disclosure, it’s not that I dislike Tate McRae so much as I don’t find her that interesting - I wasn’t impressed by that identity crisis of an album last year, ‘10:35’ is a good song but I chalk that up more to Tiesto than her, and I had no expectations for this cribbing the title of one of Ariana Grande’s most beloved deep-cuts. And… am I the only one reminded of a mid-2000s Timbaland beat with this clanking, more developed percussion against the filmy synths that frankly give this song way more swagger than it deserves? It certainly seems to be trying for a coy, playful vibe to push away this guy who’s trying to ask some probing questions about why she’s not opening up, telling him not to get greedy as it takes her way more to actually open up… all of which is severely handicapped by Tate McRae as a singer. I’m sorry, but this is not ‘Promiscuous’ and Tate McRae is not Nelly Furtado - her husky, increasingly shrill delivery especially on the hook doesn’t convey strength or sensuality or even righteous deflection, she sounds like she’s scared and that doesn’t match the vibe of the lyrics at all. Coupled with all the stuttered lyrics… you know, the production is so good that I almost want to give it a pass, but this needed someone who could sell it, just saying.

24. ‘Turks & Caicos’ by Rod Wave ft. 21 Savage - you know, I was actually looking forward to this one, as I think Rod Wave could do with more guest stars and 21 Savage has been on a hot streak… so it’s just our luck that this is easily the worst song on the entire album. For starters, I can’t stand the production of this - the bleeping whirs and jittery piano chords and glassy percussion that clashes with the strings hits and bells, it’s a mess of ideas and textures that don’t flow together at all. What’s worse is that this shows Rod Wave’s stark limitations in trying to play for a hookup track where he sounds checked out and uncomfortable - this is not his lane, and him trying to flex to her and her friends’ general disinterest makes me feel faintly embarrassed for everyone involved. I would say 21 Savage picked up the slack, but this reminds me of 2017-21 Savage where his flow is clunkier and his attempt to play the lady’s man is even more undercooked, you cannot tell me he spent significant time on these eight bars. I get why outside of the bigger singles this charted the highest on name alone… but it’s not good at all, next!

1. ‘Slime You Out’ by Drake ft. SZA - …oh look, Drake got another #1 on the basis of name and SZA affiliation and some single-cover controversy with Halle Berry that looks a lot more like negging than anything else, and already I’m tired of this new album cycle and it’s barely even started. After the atrocity that was Her Loss and the complete dud of ‘Search & Rescue’, I had zero expectations this was going to be any good… and I’ll say this, it’s not great, but it’s not as bad as I was expecting. Yes, it’s true, SZA basically runs away with the song and she’s basically the only person that makes it tolerable with her clapback at the guy who is trying to talk a big game to humiliate her and she hits back harder - shame it’s not actually Drake taking the punch and he still gets the last word, but hey, at least SZA stuck the landing. But Drake is firmly in his asshole era, starting with complaints that women want him to micromanage them - given his history of concern-trolling, I don’t buy this, not helped by crooning that he ‘whipped and chained her like American slaves’, which even if it’s a kinky double entendre it’s all kinds of uncomfortable - and not only does he threaten to put them on payment plans to repay everything he’s bought them, but then for the final verse runs through a ‘year in the life’ of one of his side girls that is excruciatingly condescending and includes the line ‘All I really know is W’s and M’s, life lookin’ like a bathroom’ - I get the wordplay, mostly because this song is him flushing both down the toilet. But at least his final verse is on beat - I could swear the first two sung verses are distractingly offbeat against the hazy sample and limited percussion; it’s not as badly mixed or mastered as previous songs, but this is not special and also not much of a single, it’s no surprise this is going to lose the top spot and fast. As a whole… no, I don’t hate it, but it sure as hell isn’t good.

That takes us to the end of this week, and… honestly, I’m a little surprised by what we have here, because Rod Wave is not getting the best of the week, as that’s going to ‘Strangers’ by Kenya Grace - he is getting a tie for Honourable Mention with ‘Keep It G’ and ‘2018’ with Sadie Jean. Worst of the week… well, ‘Turks & Caicos’ with 21 Savage is getting Rod Wave that dubious honour, but Dishonourable Mention… I have to give it to ‘Another One Of Me’ by Diddy, French Montana, 21 Savage and The Weeknd, if only for being a slightly greater mess than Drake embarrassing himself and SZA saving his ass. Next week… well, we’ve got that Doja Cat album bomb coming, but Zach Bryan also has an EP that could do even better numbers, so stay tuned for that!