billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - september 23, 2023

…first off, apologies for this being late - had some personal stuff that took priority yesterday, not going into detail about that, it is what it is. And look, it’s just going to be album bombs for the next few weeks at the very least - not exactly the most interesting time for the Hot 100 in a not particularly interesting year, but what can you do, at least with Olivia Rodrigo we’re starting with one of the better ones, even if she didn’t quite have the courtesy to debut in a position where I could sidestep covering most of the songs - thanks for that!

Anyway, let’s start with our top ten, and again, as predicted, Olivia Rodrigo found the top spot again with ‘vampire’ at #1 - it’s here because of the album bomb for GUTS, although I’d chalk more of its success up to the streaming boost augmenting the existing radio, which might have spent the week bleeding but it was enough of an advantage to get there… even if it won’t last until next week, thank you so very much Drake. This overrides ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat, which has better streaming but just can’t close that radio margin fast enough. And yet, even then it rolls past ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves at #3, which has more streaming than both songs but the radio is still not touching it, and if that’s not proof that any ‘capitalist meritocracy’ is abundantly not a thing on Music Row, who are just ignoring the money and airplay spins in front of them for the easiest cash-in because of petty bullshit from a decade ago, I don’t know what is! What it does mean is that ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs slid down to #4, because even despite an okay streaming week and radio somewhat stable, it just doesn’t have that added juice to get higher. Then there’s ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #5, which also has radio stability but streaming is on the downturn and it looks like momentum has dried up, which is even more pronounced with ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen where despite more streaming stability, the radio is dropping this fast. Then we saw the expected album bomb spike for ‘bad idea, right?’ by Olivia Rodrigo up to #7 - it’s genuinely annoying that it seems to be a non-starter on radio - but it rolled past ‘Snooze’ by SZA at #8 despite its brief radio boost and ‘fukumean’ by Gunna at #9, which also had a decent radio week even as its streaming is tapering off! Finally we have ‘Dance The Night’ by Dua Lipa at #10, where it looks like radio hit its peak and that’s about all it has.

…which takes us neatly to losers and dropouts, of which as you’d expect there’s a lot to peel through. In the latter group, the biggest cut is ‘Cupid’ by Fifty Fifty neatly nabbing its year-end list spot, where ‘Area Codes’ by Kali might have just scraped in while ‘Shake Sumn’ by DaBaby, ‘See You Again’ by Tyler The Creator and Kali Uchis, ‘Stand By Me’ by Lil Durk and Morgan Wallen, and ‘Your Heart Or Mine’ by Jon Pardi handily missing. Now for the losers… ugh, it’s over a third of the Hot 100, again, but I’m going to track them here if only for a level set before we get so many album bombs in rapid succession, so let’s start with a previous one from a few weeks back for Zach Bryan: ‘Hey Driver’ with The War and Treaty at 34, ‘Tourniquet’ at 45, ‘Spotless’ with The Lumineers at 52, ‘East Side Of Sorrow’ at 55, ‘Fear and Friday’s’ at 75, ‘El Dorado’ at 76, ‘Ticking’ at 81, ‘Summertime’s Close’ at 82, ‘Overtime’ at 86, ‘Holy Roller’ with Sierra Ferrell at 90, and ‘Smaller Acts’ at 92. Next let’s go to the Travis Scott album bomb that’s still been sticking around: ‘MELTDOWN’ with Drake at 37, ‘TELEKINESIS’ with SZA and Future at 63, ‘FE!N’ with Playboi Carti at 64, and ‘K-POP’ with Bad Bunny and The Weeknd at 94. Next we have a few Karol G songs with ‘Qiona’ with Peso Pluma at 42 and ‘Mie Ex Tenia Razon’ at 54 - and you know, while we’re talking about Latin music we have ‘LALA’ by Myke Towers at 57 and ‘TQM’ by Fuerza Regida at 99. And hell, let’s run through the other country songs quickly: ‘TRUCK BED’ by HARDY at 73, ‘Bury Me In Georgia’ by Kane Brown at 50, ‘Love You Anyway’ by Luke Combs at 49, ‘Try That In A Small Town’ by Jason Aldean at 43, ‘Need A Favor’ by Jelly Roll at 28, and ‘Rich Men North Of Richmond’ by Oliver Anthony still at 22. Finally, the rest: ‘Sittin On Top of the World’ by Burna Boy at 97, ‘Come See Me’ by Rod Wave at 88 - it’ll rebound big next week - ‘Put It On Da Floor Again’ by Latto ft. Cardi B at 79, ‘Deli’ by Ice Spice at 71, ‘Last Time I Saw You’ by Nicki Minaj losing big off the debut to 62, ‘Dial Drunk’ by Noah Kahan and Post Malone at 38, ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, The Weeknd and 21 Savage at 35, ‘What Was I Made For’ by Billie Eilish at 32, ‘Used To Be Young’ by Miley Cyrus at 26, and finally from Taylor Swift, ‘Karma’ at 36 and ‘Anti-Hero’ at 31.

Now believe it or not, we do have a few gains and returns this week that are disconnected from the album bomb - although I don’t know what ‘Lagunas’ by Peso Pluma and Jasiel Nunez is at 96, ‘Fight The Feeling’ by Rod Wave returning to 93 is just preempting the album bomb, which probably explains ‘Call Your Friends’ also getting a boost to 85 in our gains. The rest… oof, these are not promising, with ‘Peaches & Eggplants’ by Young Nudy and 21 Savage surviving up to 33, ‘Save Me’ by Jelly Roll and Lainey Wilson up to 56, and ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims still having traction at 70. This would normally be where I’d mention the album bomb songs I’d be excluding this week… but all ten new Olivia Rodrigo songs are inside the top 40, so I guess I have to talk about all of them, as if I didn’t already review the album!

But we aren’t actually starting there, so with our new arrivals…

60. ‘Bipolar’ by Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nunez & Junior H - huh, I guess that’s why ‘Lagunas’ came back this week. Anyway, this was a regional Mexican track that initially surprised me starting with a piano line before going into the usual painfully brittle clicking acoustics - at least there was a little more melody to support beyond the vocal lines - but then you realize there’s still not much in the way of a hook and despite his nasal braying, Peso Pluma probably has the most charisma and presence on the track. But then I translated the lyrics, which I’d normally not mind as your usual ‘not over it’ post-breakup relapse… except Peso Pluma describes this as being ‘bipolar’, because he’s just so crazy that this woman’s love left him, which leads to all manner of mess in its wake. Now I’m not saying that these guys have to be reliable narrators or anything, this song is clearly not set up like that - what I am saying is that it’s stupid and nobody here has the charisma to make this remotely interesting, and the production can’t sell that melodrama. So no, I don’t think this is good - next!

51. ‘Slow Dancing’ by V - have to be honest, I’m a little surprised how these songs from V are just drip-feeding onto the Hot 100 - never to last that long because the sales momentum doesn’t stick around, but he’s one of the more interesting BTS-affiliated acts and I was curious about this. And I actually like this a decent bit: it leans into a supple sandy R&B groove where the watery textures fit the bassline really well, V sells the give-and-take of the relationship really well, especially the gut punch on the final verse where he reveals this is a reconnection, and then we get one of the better flute solos that I’ve heard in a while! It’s the sort of textured slow-burn R&B that both V and RM have proved damn good working within, and I’d be fine hearing more of it - this is a nice surprise, give it a shot!

39. ‘teenage dream’ by Olivia Rodrigo - so we have a lot of Olivia Rodrigo songs to get through, I can’t promise I’m going to have a ton to say about all of them, but let’s start off with the album closer and a pretty good song, even if nothing is going to unseat the Katy Perry track with that same title for me. But again, I like this, a self-referential piano ballad with gentle touches of strings that absolutely owes a debt to Billie Eilish especially in how the drums and guitars crash into the outro, but some of the observations are solid, well-formed context in a lot of the projection placed on her for being young and precocious, but also how that youth and beauty is fleeting, a mirage that she knows isn’t built to last, and the open question of what comes next is scary. I have mixed feelings on the choice to include baby noises on the outro from her producer - as a symbol of coming adult obligations, that’s making more of a statement than I think she’s intending - but outside of that choice, this is a nice song, compared to…

30. ‘pretty isn’t pretty’ by Olivia Rodrigo - the big criticism I had of GUTS was that when it tried to make bigger societal critique it felt a little over its skis, and this is one of two examples, where Olivia Rodrigo rips into the fashion industry and self-image and the weaponized insecurity it can all trigger, especially when it can feel omnipresent and overpowering - and as a celebrity it’s probably even worse for her. It almost feels like an anti-self-esteem anthem, and while it’s smarter than most I think the defeatism rubs me the wrong way, even if that can feel very relatable, and while we’re here, I don’t think the production does it many favours either. The desaturated jangling groove, drums that are on the cusp of clipping, while the waves of hazy guitar remind me a lot of late 90s pop rock, I feel like there’s a spark missing here, especially with how the vocals feel pressed back. Not bad, it’s fine… but not one of my favourites by any margin.

25. ‘love is embarrassing’ by Olivia Rodrigo - I’ve often cited Olivia Rodrigo’s greatest strength coming in her relatability, and if there’s a song that seems perfectly primed to nail Gen Z’s frustrated blur of ironic deflection and overly raw emotionality, it’s this one: the shallow hookup that Rodrigo got way too invested in too early, the pulsating bassline that’s probably the bounciest groove on the entire album where the guitar spikes around the cymbals, and where you can palpably hear the embarrassment she’s trying to oversell to try and shield how much this actually stings. It’s definitely an album cut - maybe the hook needed to swing a little bigger to put this in her top tier - but I still had a lot of fun with this; great song, check it out!

24. ‘ballad of a homeschool girl’ by Olivia Rodrigo - I’ve been on the fence about this song - on the one hand, the bassline is good and the gnarlier guitar spikes off Rodrigo’s belting pretty well… even if it’s buried behind the distorted filter they always slap over these vocals that hits the nasal whine of the guitar on the hook for a tone I don’t really like. And then there’s the writing, where I’m sure we can relate to the anxious personal replay the morning after going to a party and wondering just how many ways you fucked up, with the modern touch of realizing the guy she might have been interested in is gay. That said… it feels like it’s searching for a stronger punchline, especially as the whole ‘homeschooled’ conceit is left in subtext beyond just if she’s homeschooled, what social suicide is going to manifest here, at least not on the same scale as if she went to that school. But then again, the entire joke is overthinking this, which I just did - cute conceit, decent song, doesn’t quite stick for me.

23. ‘lacy’ by Olivia Rodrigo - so almost immediately this song got some raised eyebrows, and not just for a sudden momentum slowdown early on the album, where it sounds like she’s writing her version of ‘Jolene’ but gets a little carried away in describing the beauty of the other woman - or rather, like Little Big Town’s ‘Girl Crush’ where the bait-and-switch is much hazier. And when you pair that with a gentle acoustic palette more reminiscent of boygenius, along with whispered cooing vocals - outside of that bridge that builds a bit of a groove and feels a bit oversaturated and heavy, it doesn’t merge well with the rest of the song - it feels very queer and that’s a feature, not a bug. But rather than any speculation, I think where I’m cooler on this are the lyrics - more that they tip into melodrama and feel more clunky than they should. Definitely a cute song, I think it’s good… I’m just not sure it pulled off just what it was intending.

20. ‘logical’ by Olivia Rodrigo - I view this as the sister song to ‘vampire’ - anchored in the piano line with the slightest touches of acoustics swelling up really well, but where that one went pure theatre, this goes for something more spare and wiry for its punchline on the bridge, where she’s the victim of gaslighting and it’s made all the more frustrating because she does indeed love this person despite it all; it’s a lot harder to end things when your own mind makes the excuses for you, and if you’ve been at all close to that situation, I absolutely get it. I do think it’s a little oversold, but I know some folks have gotten irked with the songwriting on the hook in the logical contradictions and I didn’t mind that, mostly because she gets more specific and those words cut. Not among my favourites on this album, but it’s close - really good song!

19. ‘making the bed’ by Olivia Rodrigo - Not gonna lie, this is the sort of song I expected from Olivia Rodrigo, especially following the wake of Billie Eilish, but also the sort of song that’s very easy to screw up: not quite ‘more money, more problems’, but in how the meteoric rise to fame isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. But what I really like about this song is that Rodrigo is self-aware about what her image is - the ‘wiser beyond her years’ teen pop star, the easy victim, alienated from both friends and fans who think they know her better than they do… but this is her choice, this is the path she’s chosen, and with the consequences comes that tragedy. Now I don’t love the production - the warbling guitars, the heavy percussion, the bass carrying the melody, the tempo that never quite builds fully from the verses into the hook especially with that buzzy distortion over the end of the hook - but it does have enough roaring cinematic bombast and command of dynamics to tip into greatness, at least for me. Not her best, but still something special.

16. ‘the grudge’ by Olivia Rodrigo - I’m not sure why this is one of the deep cuts that took off so much, outside of the rumors that this is more tied to Taylor Swift drama that I frankly don’t think is there… and I have to be honest, outside of a few good lyrical turns of phrase, this is not one of my favourites. The piano line is fine but it’s a little too soft to match Rodrigo’s belting, and the emotional drama in the wake of the relationship feels messier, mostly because you can tell she hasn’t fully processed all of it. And while I appreciated the self-awareness and how she might not be strong enough to forgive just yet… I dunno, it feels like it should connect more deeply beyond a few lines than it does. Not bad, per se, but it’s definitely a deep cut I wouldn’t revisit much.

14. ‘Bongos’ by Cardi B & Megan Thee Stallion - alright, I’m not surprised that Megan and Cardi teamed up again - ‘WAP’ was one of those songs that felt like a genuine moment in 2020, I think it’s aged surprisingly well and it’s still really funny, but it was also the track that left me thinking that a Cardi B album was coming… and that didn’t happen, and it’s now three years later, and this screams of Atlantic trying to get the magic to strike twice. So let’s get this out of the way now: this is not better than ‘WAP’ - it’s not as funny, it’s not as immediately memetic in its production or lyrical choices, and with the minimalist vocal sample and spare percussion, it’s going to draw an immediate comparison with more of this song being about flexing on haters than pure provocation. That being said, I think there’s room for both here - Meg and Cardi still have terrific chemistry and that’s only amplified with the tighter tradeoff of bars, and I’d argue Cardi stepped her wordplay to match with Megan’s intensity; it’s got a ton of swagger and they both absolutely can sell it, and with the faster groove I can see it having more staying dance floor staying power. So while I think the comparison puts this at a disadvantage, I still had more fun with this than I expected - really damn good song, I like this a lot!

13. ‘all american bitch’ by Olivia Rodrigo - okay, the album opener… and man, I don’t really care for this at all. I said this with ‘pretty isn’t pretty’, but a lot of the larger societal critique just didn’t land for me from Olivia Rodrigo, where I’m not sure if the songs have the gravitas to sell their iconography, or it’s an intentional pisstake and it just doesn’t feel as edgy as she thinks it does. I get wanting to rip into all of the stupid contradictions sold to American girls and women, and the juxtaposition of the prettier acoustics with the rock guitar is directly drilling into that, but I can also tell this is a song that absolutely embraces some of its ‘all-American’ elements unironically, and it doesn’t really strike a heavier chord. I guess if I didn’t have the most obvious comparison point with Ethel Cain’s ‘American Teenager’ that aims way bigger and understands this same dichotomy way more effectively, I might be more charitable, but I’ve also seen Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey play multiple versions of the ‘all-American’ juxtaposition and deconstruction, and this doesn’t their teeth or insight. It’s fine, I guess, but for me it’s absolutely the weakest song on the album, it happens.

11. ‘get him back!’ by Olivia Rodrigo - I know some fans are annoyed that this is being pushed as the very obvious third single - the spoken verses against the noisy drums and scuzzy, warped guitar that reminds me of ‘Loser’ by Beck or more likely ‘Pepper’ by the Butthole Surfers, given that they feel more sour and sardonic than outright surreal, paired with the huge sing-a-long hook that almost feels too obvious. Now I could see some objecting to just how petty the lyrics are - this is a bad relationship where Olivia wants to ‘get him back’ for a lot of bad reasons, mostly to cause him misery… but like with ‘bad idea right’, there’s also a tangible hormonal attraction that gives the melodrama a warped amount of sense, where the huge hook can’t sidestep how much all of this is going to blow up in her face. In other words, it actually reminds me more of ‘Mood’ by 24kGoldn and iann dior for its adolescent trashiness, and that’s a compliment - it certainly doesn’t take itself that seriously, and it’s great fun as a result!

And that’s our week… and no surprise, Olivia Rodrigo is getting the best for ‘get him back!’, with ‘love is embarrassing’ tied for Honourable Mention… with ‘Bongos’ by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion - what can I say, it’s not as funny or provocative, but I can respect the refinement. Worst… yeah, easy pick for ‘Bipolar’ by Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nunez and Junior H, but Dishonourable Mention is going to ‘all-american bitch’ by Olivia Rodrigo - I’ll say it again, I don’t think it works. Next week… yeah, the Rod Wave album bomb will probably be interesting, but we also have Drake likely going back to #1… stay tuned for that…