billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - september 16, 2023

This is always the week I find interesting post-album bomb… when it doesn’t really fade at all. In fact, while I wouldn’t precisely call this week a slowdown - much as I would have appreciated that in the middle of one of my most insane months of this year - it is a bit of a breather, especially with Olivia Rodrigo likely to crash through next week with an album bomb of her own! So consider this week a bit of a holdover where I wouldn’t place much faith in anything new lasting long… we’ll have to see.

In the meantime, our top 10, where as I predicted last week, we have a new #1: ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat. Let’s make this clear, it’s winning on radio margins, because while the streaming and sales are really good, the aggressive airplay push is what got it the edge for at least this week, especially over ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves pushed back to #2, which has precisely zero radio and is here on massive streaming and just enough sales to keep up - imagine if Music Row bothered to give Zach Bryan or Kacey Musgraves the slightest time of day, they could really have something here! Anyway, none of this is good timing for ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs stranded at #3 - streaming is still remarkably good and it’s at the very top on the radio, but it has also clearly peaked and I don’t expect it to make any desperate run unless the label throws a discount, not for next week but for next, and even that’s a roll of the dice. What might have a slightly better chance is ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift up to #4, who is also nearly out of radio momentum but might just have a bit of gas left in the tank thanks to streaming and the Swiftie fanbase, it’s possible. All of this overrides ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen at #5, which is only not losing more because it had a good streaming week, the radio is dumping this quick, but that opens a door for ‘Dance The Night’ by Dua Lipa up to #6, which still has a very tangible radio push even as streaming feels slower to get onboard. This isn’t really the case for ‘Snooze’ by SZA at #7, which hit a very sharp radio peak this week but the streaming backed it up just enough to hold over ‘fukumean’ by Gunna at #8, which is finally getting radio traction to hold around streaming that’s frankly having more longevity than I expected. The big story here, though, is ‘vampire’ by Olivia Rodrigo at #9 - with the album coming, there’s a chance this jumps to #1, although I’d argue it’ll be played on the streaming margins; she’s already got robust radio in place, it could very easily happen. Finally, ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez at #10 - all it really has is radio, and that’s falling away, I don’t have high expectations here.

This takes us neatly to the losers and dropouts, where to my shock in the latter category we have some big ones, all having clinched their year-end list spots: ‘Un x100to’ by Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny, ‘Chemical’ by Post Malone, and ‘Princess Diana’ by Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj. As for the losers… well, as expected the majority are from Zach Bryan and we’ll get to those, but I’m also interested in how ‘Single Soon’ by Selena Gomez just toppled off the debut to 39, or how quickly the losses for ‘Call Your Friends’ by Rod Wave piled up to 97, or ‘Your Heart Of Mine’ by Jon Pardi getting yanked from Nashville radio to 98, or ‘S91’ by Karol G at 100. But yes, the Zach Bryan drops are as follows: ‘Spotless’ with The Lumineers at 35, ‘East Side Of Sorrow’ at 40, ‘Fear & Friday’s’ at 48, ‘El Dorado’ at 49, ‘Ticking’ at 52, ‘Summertime’s Close’ at 53, ‘Overtime’ at 55, ‘Smaller Acts’ at 63, ‘Holy Roller’ with Sierra Ferrell at 69, ‘Jake’s Piano - Long Island’ at 78, ‘Tradesman’ at 82, and ‘Oklahoman Son’ at 88.

Now for the returns and gains, of which there are less of both than you might think. In the former group, ‘El Amor de Su Vida’ by Grupo Frontera and Grupo Firme clawed back to 93, but the bigger story is the sad return of ‘Margaritaville’ by the late Jimmy Buffett to 38, for one last posthumous run; rarely has there been an artist to find so much iconic pathos in vacation. Now for the gains… of which there’s not really a pattern that I can distinguish, this is very much all over the place, outside of how they’re concentrated in the midsection of the Hot 100. The one song that didn’t really lose that saw a boost was ‘LALA’ by Myke Towers, but in terms of Latin music ‘Qiona’ by Karol G and Peso Pluma saw a nice jump to 31. Country and folk looked a bit mmore promising with ‘Dial Drunk’ by Noah Kahan and Post Malone at 28, ‘Watermelon Moonshine’ by Lainey Wilson at 33, and even ‘In Your Love’ by Tyler Childers up to 65, but that also came with ‘Bury Me In Georgia’ by Kane Brown at 36, and ‘Thinkin’ Bout Me’ by Morgan Wallen at 19, and ‘Try That In A Small Town’ at 30. Then we have the rest that I can’t really explain… well, okay, ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift at 20, it’s just a behemoth that’s lasted the whole year, and ‘I KNOW?’ by Travis Scott hit the crossover streaming market at 34, and I guess ‘Daylight’ by David Kushner at 42 and ‘What It Is (Block Boy)’ by Doechii and Kodak Black hit 41 because of just enough radio… kind of underwhelming excuses, but what can you do, right?

Anyway, we only have six new arrivals this week, and we’re going to start with a bit of a curveball…

84. ‘Keep Going Up!’ by Timbaland, Nelly Furtado & Justin Timberlake - you know, after I did my video essay on Justin Timberlake, I was actually really excited to hear about this reunion collab - all three of them made some impressive music in the mid-2000s, maybe some nostalgia would stick around… and then it wasn’t just that the buzz was underwhelmed or negative, it evaporated before I even got a chance to hear the song! And now having heard it… yeah, I get why, and it’s pretty easy to categorize: this is a song that is trying to coast on laurels, tell us rather than show us they still have it. The ego is still here, but Timberlake and Furtado just don’t have any edge or swagger here - this is going to sound weird coming from me, but they sound way too earnest to sell any cool - and the production does them no favours: the synths are painfully weedy especially around the hook, squeaky across a mix where even the percussion is more developed, and outside of a few scattered adlibs, Timbaland is a non-presence. Again, this is running on name recognition over any actual potency, and as someone who wanted to root for it… yeah, I’m gonna call it, big disappointment here.

67. ‘SkeeYee’ by Sexyy Red - it feels like Sexyy Red has wound up in a lot of discourse for everything except her music - yeah, her stuff is filthy and horny, why is any self-regarding ‘fan of hip-hop’ pearl-clutching here, you’re embarrassing yourself! No, if I have issues with Sexyy Red, it’s because I don’t think she’s a good rapper - she only barely stays on beat, her flow is clunky and often has the feel where she’s trying to shove in too many words to finish a punchline, and the flexing content isn’t clever or funny; hell, with this song I don’t even think it’s that provocative outside of wanting to get fucked in the ass. I guess if I’m going to anyone credit it’s Tay Keith for a really good beat here with the piano line and sharper percussion and bells - and yeah, shouting ‘skeeyee’ over the song is modestly catchy - but outside of that, compared to Doechii or Flo Milli or GloRilla or even Ice Spice with her dead-eyed drill flows, I don’t hear what makes Sexyy Red that special on a mic. The beat saves this, but even then… not saying much.

61. ‘Que Onda’ by Calle 24, Chino Pacas & Fuerza Regida - look, I’ve gotten behind some regional Mexican music in the past year, but when I saw the lineup behind this song I had rock-bottom expectations… and turns out that was smart, because wow, just on a sonic level I don’t like this. What is with the bass clicking being so accentuated in the mix that it overpowers all the painfully weedy acoustics and farty horns - and this is a song that appears to have a production budget given how much they slapped reverb onto the vocals, there’s no excuse for this! Couple that with how the song is trying to go into explicit detail talking this girl into cheating on her partner - and none of these guys have much in the way of charisma - and the fact that there’s no tangible hook to speak of… yeah, this isn’t good at all; I don’t know why I’m even disappointed.

56. ‘Come See Me’ by Rod Wave - you know, I don’t know why I even expect Rod Wave to develop song structure beyond an extended verse and hook - I wish he would, I think he has the melodic instincts to do so well, but it’s left so many of even his best work feeling fragmented and it’s just frustrating. And I don’t think it helps this one, which leans more on watery pianos and vocal samples as Rod Wave goes off about an old love where he’s got ‘not over it’ written all over the song and it’s dragging him into some very dark places; it’s not quite a guilt trip towards this girl, and I get going on a bender post-breakup, but there’s a sourness that pushes it close to guilt-trip territory, I’ll say that, and it makes the song a lot harder to like. So yeah, can’t say I’m a fan of this either.

46. ‘Demons’ by Doja Cat - I know I’m not the only one who hasn’t really bought into Doja Cat’s provocation in his album cycle, although for me it has way less to do with any visuals and more with how the music has just not been able to match that same intensity. So when I see a song called ‘Demons’… shit, I learned this lesson with Imagine Dragons a decade ago, that’s no guarantee this’ll have an edge. So I’ll give her this: the ascending melody against the really filthy beat that almost seems to remind me of rage production, it has more bite than a lot of the instrumentals she’s used, but like a lot of rage for me, it’s not menacing - sloppy mixing where said beat clips the mix and her vocals doesn’t scare me, and neither do all the defensive threats where once again Doja Cat tries to flex on social media haters and it feels neither creative nor interesting, especially given how disinterested she sounds on the verses. So sure, call it a step in the right direction, but I have no desire to revisit this.

23. ‘Last Time I Saw You’ by Nicki Minaj - man, I wish I wasn’t relying on Nicki Minaj in 2023 to have a strong enough song to carry this week, but that’s where we are, because even if I’ve found more to like from her in the past few years, she’s also been wildly uneven in the service of this mysterious album rollout for Pink Friday 2! So let me say this: it’s not a great song by any means, but it’s at least workable. The electric guitar loop behind the sharper percussion and more developed bassline, Nicki crooning over the hook and bridge with only one full rap verse, where she describes a relationship where she didn’t pay it enough attention and was a little neglectful, and now she’s wistful about what she lost, where she didn’t put in the effort, and what might have been. Honestly, I’ve never fully bought into Nicki Minaj’s more emotive side - it feels a little too guarded for its own good on many occasions - but honestly, while the detail feels scant there’s still enough here to make this work, even if the song as a whole doesn’t feel that special. It’s decent for sure, probably will work best for Nicki Minaj fans who are invested in her emotional journey, but if not… ehh, take it or leave it.

That being said, I’m giving it the Best of the Week - Nicki’s a better rapper than Sexyy Red, she has more to say, and the production holds up. The worst is easily going to ‘Que Onda’ by Calle 24, Chino Pacas, and Fuerza Regida - another regional Mexican track which seems to press every button on what I don’t like within this genre. Thankfully things will get more interesting with Olivia Rodrigo coming next week, stay tuned for that!