billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - october 8, 2022

…I mean, I did effectively call this. I knew the big singles that were coming and the discourse that they would inevitably bring, and while the very bottom of the Hot 100 wound up a bit busier thanks to some long-overdue songs getting rotated out, this is another week of relative normalcy before all hell breaks loose with the albums coming. Again, this upcoming October and November look to be some of the busiest months I will have on both channels, stay tuned…

But before we get to all of that, the top ten, where we have a new #1, albeit not a strong one: ‘Bad Habit’ by Steve Lacy - and again, I have to stress that this was a margins game, where it picked up just enough radio and maintained strong streaming to overtake a very close margin against ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles at #2. Granted, that song spent most of the week peaking on the radio, but it was able to put up a tight contest… although now we have some new competition. Debuting at #3, ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras has arrived, and while we’ll get into the song itself much later on, when it tops the streaming and sales charts, the only reason it didn’t break higher is because the radio has been slow to get onboard! This thankfully shoves back ‘I Like You (A Happier Song)’ by Post Malone and Doja Cat to #4 - although its radio peaking certainly helped - and ‘Sunroof’ by Nicky Youre and dazy at #5, where all it has is radio and that’s definitely on the downswing. It also knocked back ‘Super Freaky Girl’ by Nicki Minaj to #6 - this is where not taking streaming losses and more robust airplay could have helped, especially as ‘I Ain’t Worried’ by OneRepublic held steady at #7 basically across the board. The streaming losses also knocked back ‘You Proof’ by Morgan Wallen to #8 despite some okay radio, and then we have our second new top ten entry: ‘Tomorrow 2’ by Glorilla and Cardi B, pretty much also here on sales and streaming and no radio to speak of. This strands ‘About Damn Time’ by Lizzo at #10, but that song is on its way out anyways, I’m not surprised.

Speaking of which, losers and dropouts, and there’s a few big ones in the latter category. The biggest story is probably Justin Bieber, with ‘Ghost’ finally exiting along with ‘Stay’ with the Kid LAROI, but Bad Bunny also took some considerable hits with ‘Party’ with Rauw Alejandro, ‘Ojitos Lindos’ with Bomba Estereo, ‘Tarot’ with Jhay Cortez, and ‘Despues de la Playas’ all exiting thanks to the recurrent rules. Oh, and ‘Hot Shit’ by Cardi B, Kanye West and Lil Durk and ‘Thought You Should Know’ by Morgan Wallen both underperformed enough to fall off as well. But there’s not really much in the way of losers here - off the debut ‘Shut Down’ by BLACKPINK fell to 67 - as did ‘Pink Venom’ off its gains to 87 - and in our continued losers ‘Talk’ by Yeat hit 93 and ‘Detox’ by Lil Baby hit 94… these promo singles don’t seem to be having the traction you’d think they would for that coming release in less than two weeks, just saying. The last losers… ‘BREAK MY SOUL’ by Beyonce is falling off sharply to 39, ‘So Good’ by Halsey hit 76, and it looks like ‘Last Night Lonely’ by Jon Pardi is getting pulled at 56 - had a good run, likely will be on the borderline for the year-end list, and I don’t care that much if it makes it or not.

But then we go to our returns and gains here… and I have to be honest, the returns look like a mess here - ‘Soul’ by Lee Brice back at 85? ‘Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol 52’ by Bizarrap and Quevedo at 86? ‘Good Love’ by City Girls and Usher back at 88, why the hell is that coming back? ‘Mary On A Cross’ by Ghost at 92? It makes a little more sense when we look at our gains, but not by much - are we still trying to make ‘Ghost Story’ by Carrie Underwood to 68 a thing? And while I get ‘Dark Red’ by Steve Lacy getting a complimentary spike to 79 off the debut, and ‘2 Be Loved (Am I Ready)’ by Lizzo rising to 58, but can someone explain why ‘What My World Spins Around’ by Jordan Davis is getting both the radio and streaming push? Seriously?

But alright, let’s get to the main event, which is a decent number of new arrivals, starting with…

100. ‘Down Home’ by Jimmie Allen - It’s not a good sign that I keep thinking that Jimmie Allen has more success than he does - hell, I thought that collaboration he had with Brad Paisley this year had real legs, but no! But alright, here’s a single from him that was released back in March, a pretty sincere commemoration to his late father… and immediately I was reminded of ‘You Should Be Here’ by Cole Swindell, which serves as an unfortunate comparison. Jimmie Allen is a better producer than I expected, giving the guitars some warmth even if the song feels a little filmy, especially in the drums, and there’s a level of lyrical detail that feels lived in. But the weird thing is the mood of the song - it’s not really melancholic, it’s chipper and upbeat and the emotional stakes feel thinner, not exactly helped by Allen’s delivery that doesn’t really bring more weight - I get that he’s in a better place right now, but the song just doesn’t have any impact as a result. I’m not saying it’s bad - it’s pleasant, reasonably well-written and it feels unique to him - but given how I can be a sucker for this kind of song, it should be much better.

99. ‘No Se Ve’ by Grupo Frontera - I really wish I got the appeal of a lot of these regional Mexican acts that chart for a week before dropping off rather quickly. And in this case, we have a cover of a 2018 song from a Colombian band called Morat with a very acoustic, pleading love song for this girl to stick around and not become a memory he can’t escape - for what it’s worth, the original is decent if a little overpolished in the vocal lines, which is not something you need to worry about with this version which adds accordion and places the vocals midway back with way sloppier harmonies; I’m not even sure the frontman can stay on key! And at this point I’m wondering why this version went viral instead of the original - it’s considerably sloppier and sounds more amateurish, which might work on TikTok but doesn’t anywhere else. I might have given Morat’s version a pass… no, I can’t with this.

98. ‘Oklahoma Smoke Show’ by Zach Bryan - well, about damn time this got through - this song has been sitting on the Bubbling Under charts for weeks now, a cut from Zach Bryan’s Summertime Blues and while not my favourite song from that project, it’s a standout that shows he’s got some credible staying power! And let’s make this clear, even if Zach Bryan is once again in his comfort zone with raw, slightly slapdash mixing in the guitars and vocals as he describes the sort of dreaming girl who wants to get out of Oklahoma and chase bigger dreams until she met a guy and lost those dreams to be with him back in that small town… he’s really good at capturing the ragged melancholy of that scene, especially as he was one of them who did get out. But I have to be honest, that keening fiddle was the ticket for me, providing a distinctive melodic foundation that provides a balance to the sawing guitar, just nailing the balance between a mix big enough to capture the dreams but claustrophobic enough to nail the despair. Absolutely great song, glad it’s finally here, let’s make it a hit!

97. ‘World’s Smallest Violin’ by AJR - I can’t get angry at AJR anymore - the passion’s gone, it was probably oversold to begin with, and once ‘Bang!’ became a hit that they’ve struggled to follow, there’s just not much to care about. That said, of the songs I tolerated on OK Orchestra a year and a half ago, this wasn’t one of them - the vocal mixing is muddy and doesn’t flatter Jack Met’s voice, the bending of the violin into other instruments sounds synthetic and cheap in a way this sort of orchestra shouldn’t, and the shuffling stomp clap over the majority of the song makes me think those who hated that sound in the early 2010s had a point. But really, the problems with this song get a lot simpler when you realize this is a Golden Age of Broadway knockoff - especially in the tempo switchups for the big finale that ends abruptly - that has the production of off-Broadway and the writing of the most insufferable millennial theatre kid. Here’s the thing: I absolutely get the angst of feeling sad when you look at people who have actual problems and then feel guilty about venting about them, but at least in a show like RENT that blinkered privilege had the pretensions to aim higher; this is a trauma dump without much in the way of trauma so it becomes cloying and annoying in record time. No, it’s not their worst or most annoying song, even from that album, but in 2022 if this is the apex of your angst, it’s hard not to want to hear from someone who has real problems, and who writes better music.

96. ‘Blow’ by Moneybagg Yo - I feel like I keep trying to like Moneybagg Yo but he’s never clicked as strongly as I’d like - a decent number of songs and verses I tolerate, but nothing I’d seek out. So now with this single… ehh, this isn’t getting there either. The weedy skitters of melody behind the admittedly well-balanced trap percussion have this oily texture I don’t care for, and while Moneybagg Yo’s flow has gotten better, he still drops a lot of filler bars onto his first verse and there’s not enough good wordplay to get around ‘I gotta keep in they face like acne’ or how he’s ‘everywhere like an iCloud’; that’s old Big Sean levels of corny, but I think it gets missed because who really cares that much about anything Moneybagg Yo says beyond bog-standard flexing and a stale hook. As a one off single… who cares, but if this is intended as a lead for that next album… well, who cares, but it’s a bigger problem.

95. ‘Out In The Middle’ by Zac Brown Band - Everyone who is handling the Zac Brown Band’s promo should be fired, preferably into the sun - I get skipping on ‘Any Day Now’ as a late single because it’s melancholic and heavy and that’s a tough sell for the radio, but you have ‘The Comeback’ as one of your best songs in recent memory and sets up a great narrative for your band after the disaster at the end of the 2010s. So naturally, you go to this, which might not be the worst song on the album by any means, but it’s also the most safe and pointless, a clinking, minor-key southern rock stomper about living out in the sticks with no strong groove that isn’t as sharp as ‘Homegrown’, as heavy as ‘Heavy Is the Head’, or as catchy as ‘Chicken Fried’. What’s worse is that for as much posturing as there is on the song, it’s here because slightly rough edges in mainstream country is becoming more of a thing in the vague hopes of a song getting shipped to soundtrack Yellowstone, and that feels cynical as all hell. Yes, the song is fine - the harmonies are decent, it’s reasonably well-balanced and produced, it’s not bad at what it’s trying to do, but there are far better songs that could be pushed, and that’s what annoys me.

32. ‘Star Walkin (League of Legends World Anthem)’ by Lil Nas X - am I the only one who isn’t really onboard with the brand integrations that some acts choose to pass as singles these days? It’s like the Pokemon and Ed Sheeran / Post Malone / Katy Perry songs, at least for as garbage as ‘Enemy’ by Imagine Dragons was, it was at least an integrated theme song instead of a glorified commercial. But speaking of League Of Legends, here we have Lil Nas X writing a theme song for an eSports tournament, and it charted. Well, that’s not quite accurate: it appears to be some sort of brand integration and doesn’t have any explicit reference to the game or e-sports, with the song more about Lil Nas X surging on newfound success and being grateful his dad didn’t wear a condom - way to compromise the mood and bombast, dude - as the synths build up some coursing gallop around more brittle, trap inflected verses. And while I actually think the synthpop hook is pretty solid if a little underpowered, there’s something here that also feels cynical - maybe it’s the minor key melody that highlights just how flimsy this sort of aspiration song can be, especially with the benefit of context. Again, I don’t want to call this precisely bad… but I don’t have a lot of use for it.

9. ‘Tomorrow 2’ by Glorilla & Cardi B - I genuinely like that Cardi B is making an active effort to try and platform and elevate other women in rap - she’s been pretty consistent at it, and even if I’m still left with questions where the hell her album is, it’s nice to see her throw some support behind Glorilla, who seems to at least have momentum even if I’m not really a fan. And this song kind of highlights why: beyond the barebones piano around the trap whirs and some decent synth sizzle on the back half of the verses, Glorilla is operating more on street attitude than wordplay or decent flows, especially dissing her competition who don’t have that edge. I think what bugs me is that she’s not really expressive, clever, or particularly imposing - there’s a bluntness to her approach that honestly reminds me of Moneybagg Yo in coming across a little flat; I get the appeal, but I’m not really impressed. Thankfully Cardi’s verse is solid as hell - she’s got that same street edge but is also more vocally expressive and funny and sexually provocative, and her verse helps an otherwise underwhelming song have more character. I wouldn’t call it great or anything - and I also know to a target audience predominantly of women it’ll go harder - but the most I’ll call it is pretty good, not great.

3. ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith & Kim Petras - I’ve been dreading the discussion about this song since it first dropped and looked like it would be successful. Part of this is because I genuinely want Sam Smith to succeed and it feels like their career has been criminally mismanaged since at least their second album - ‘Diamonds’ should have been way bigger in the States, goddamn it - and part of it is the Kim Petras conversation, who I don’t think I’ve ever talked about at length. Let me leave it here: Kim Petras’ music and artistic persona has never been interesting enough to justify her enablement of Dr. Luke to re-emerge as a pop producer and her material ranges from okay if disposable to absolute junk… and speaking of which, this song is terrible. Let’s start with the primary problem: Sam Smith and Kim Petras not only have no chemistry, it seems like this song comes from two completely different galaxies of pop music - Sam Smith is trying for this gospel-inflected melodramatic bombast, where the content is all about someone cheating on their wife with a vapid prostitute, especially with the faux-operatic backing vocals. Already a bad start as Sam Smith’s best sexually charged material comes from something with a groove and faster tempo, which sure as hell isn’t coming from this wiry bass synth and leaden trap clank and near absence of melody, but it’s all more about the transgression than anything than something erotic. Enter Kim Petras, in full barbiecore flex material that Slayyyter already does better and her shallow capriciousness doesn’t match the energy of the song at all; Madonna’s ‘Justify My Love’ understood the mood better than this! But what might be worst of all is the writing, because the structure and word choice and cadence is very Kim Petras, not Sam Smith - it’s Californicated slang that sounds goddamn goofy coming out of Smith and obnoxious from Petras, and that’s not saying this can’t work: ‘Take Me to Church’ by Hozier, ‘Sacrilege’ by The Yeah Yeah Yeahs, hell I’d take Lana Del Rey or The Weeknd or any number of decadent, gothic trap songs you’d get in 2013. But with no groove and such a baffling clash of atmosphere and content, this is closer to Riverdale-core at its worst - and it sucks because I really hope certain conservatives don’t use the sexually provocative content and queerness of the artists as an excuse to further target trans and nonbinary people because the song sucks. Then I remembered that those people don’t need an excuse to marginalize trans and nonbinary people, we don’t have to justify their logic in giving them that argument, and that we can still say the song is still terrible without it being an indictment on queer music!

And yeah, by far the worst of this week, with Dishonourable Mention going to ‘World’s Smallest Violin’ by AJR because even if I’m not as angry with that band, I’m no less annoyed. Best of the week… not a lot of options, but ‘Oklahoma Smoke Show’ by Zach Bryan runs away with it followed by ‘Tomorrow 2’ by Glorilla and Cardi B - not a great song, but I’ll take what I can get. Next week… I mean, I can pray for Freddie Gibbs to break through, but I’m more expecting the fallout, so stay tuned for that…