billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - october 3, 2020

I’m on the fence about how much this week matters. On the one hand, it’s a reset to equilibrium after the album bomb from YoungBoy Never Broke Again faded as fast as it showed up… but on the other hand, knowing how ridiculous this year is, we could well be getting a Machine Gun Kelly album bomb next week and who knows what the hell that would bring; might even get a smattering of Joji along the way, who knows!

But enough looking to the bizarre future, let’s talk about the current top ten, and I’ll admit I’m kind of surprised that ‘Dynamite’ by BTS surged back to take the #1. Now part of this is because they’re working the sales gimmicks with the remixes as hard as they can… but there was a bit of a streaming recovery to compensate for how radio has completely stalled out, so I’ll give them points for shoring up the weaknesses. But part of this might be just the hype from ‘WAP’ by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion dying down as it slipped to #2 - yes, it rules streaming and YouTube and the radio run is stable, but its sales traction just isn’t winning in the margins to compete, which might hold it back. But now we have a new challenger on the scene, and one that I can dispiritedly predict I saw coming: ‘Holy’ by Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper at #3. Now we’ll get more into the song’s actual quality much later, but we need to prepare for this to be a thing, people: it’s strong in every channel, most alarmingly sales AND streaming simultaneously with radio just catching up - I know some folks are predicting this will fall off, but I think it might wind up having more legs if that traction persists, just warning you. Hell, it blew past ‘Laugh Now, Cry Later’ by Drake ft. Lil Durk at #4, which now has a lot of radio momentum, but is slowing on streaming and has no real sales to speak of behind it, which opens up the door for ‘Mood’ by 24kGoldn and iann dior at #5, which is surging in its own right in all channels - not sure if it’s got the momentum to fully make a move, but I’m frankly happy it’s surged this far. Then we have two songs that are on their way out naturally, ‘ROCKSTAR’ by DaBaby and Roddy Ricch at #6 and ‘Blinding Lights’ by The Weeknd at #7, both propped up by radio but the former riding residual streaming and the latter riding fading sales. And that might as well be the case for ‘Watermelon Sugar’ by Harry Styles at #8, except all it really has is radio at this point, which again, you’d think would open the gate for ‘Savage Love’ by Jawsh 685 and Jason Derulo at #9, but despite the radio traction that will not slow, it’s not making anyway headway at all! Finally, slipping back into the top ten we have ‘I Hope’ by Gabby Barrett - it’s got radio and sales, and the less attention I pay it, the better off we’ll all be.

And onto what I hope will be a prophetic note, losers and dropouts! A quick note that I forgot ‘stuck with u’ by Ariana Grande and Justin Bieber was a dropout last week - my mistake, but with a song that forgettable you can’t be that surprised - but this week all we have is ‘One Margarita’ by Luke Bryan and ‘The Bones’ by Maren Morris making their expected departures, the latter one after being on the charts for a solid year. Our losers unfortunately aren’t much more interesting, most courtesy of the YoungBoy album bomb fading: ‘Drug Addiction’ down to 97, ‘My Window’ with Lil Wayne at 89, and ‘Kacey Talk’ losing all of its gains to 72. Outside of that, ‘OK Not To Be OK’ by Marshmello and Demi Lovato slid to 75 off the debut, ‘Girls In The Hood’ by Megan Thee Stallion slips to 68, ‘Like That’ by Doja Cat and Gucci Mane at 64 on its way out naturally, and ‘Nobody’s Love’ by Maroon 5 continues to just tank at 82 - good.

Now I will say I’m a little perplexed by our gains and returns - why exactly are ‘B.S.’ by Jhene Aiko and H.E.R. and ‘Wolves’ by Big Sean and Post Malone back at 99 and 100 respectively? And some of our returns sliding up to fill the gaps are pretty questionable too, especially as the majority are country or trying to pass for it - ‘Some Girls’ by Jameson Rodgers at 43, ‘Pretty Heart’ by Parker McCollum at 61, ‘I Called Mama’ by Tim McGraw at 67, ‘Love You Like I Used To’ by Russell Dickerson at 77, ‘Everywhere But On’ by Matt Stell at 83, and thankfully ‘Ain’t Always The Cowboy’ by Jon Pardi at 79 and ‘Starting Over’ by Chris Stapleton at 73. Outside of that… well, we had the continued inexplicable pickups for ‘Said Sum’ by Moneybagg Yo at 24 and ‘ily’ by surf mesa ft. Emilee at 37, and a bit of an album boost for ‘Kings & Queens’ by Ava Max up to 38, but the rest… ‘What You Know About Love’ by the late Pop Smoke gets a slight boost to 56 as it appears TikTok has gotten onboard with it, ‘Un Dia’ by J Balvin, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny and Tainy jumped to 71, ‘Martin & Gina’ by Polo G picked up nicely to 74. and most interestingly, ‘my ex’s best friend’ by Machine Gun Kelly and blackbear is up to 58, which I’ll admit has grown on me a bit and it will be intriguing to see how much the album boost will translate to any lasting success next week, even if it’ll likely wind up caught between years even if it blows up.

Anyway, we’ve got a healthy slate of new arrivals, so let’s start with…

95. ‘Blind’ by DaBaby ft. Young Thug - anyone else feel that the BLAME IT ON BABY deluxe edition kind of came and went without much in the way of impact? I don’t want to make a judgement on what that reflects because I think it’s very premature to say folks are getting sick of DaBaby already… but I am saying I could have gone without knowing that DaBaby and Young Thug are now on a song together produced by abusive asshole and mediocre label executive Dr. Luke, which is very telling in a disappointing way. So with that fun fact in mind, is the song any good? Honestly, I’m not all that impressed - I get that DaBaby is open to the pop pivot and the hook isn’t bad, but the pretty basic and weirdly sedate electric guitar loop behind the trap percussion seems like the most sterile way to approach it, even if the blending quality is higher than normal. But my bigger issue comes in the content - the ‘blindness’ DaBaby and Thugger reference is to the things in their lives that matter, the latter seeming like his family and the former surrounding DaBaby’s newfound knowledge of the industry. But even then, nothing here is framed in delivery nor style like a big revelation - it’s just kind of resigned, and DaBaby making a ‘bathing ape’ reference reminds me way too much of the Kanye remix of Katy Perry’s ‘E.T.’ - which was also produced and cowritten by Dr. Luke, so it’s just obvious he’s recycling! At the end of the day… it’s catchy enough to get traction, but it sure as hell isn’t good - next!

93. ‘Whole Lotta Choppas’ by Sada Baby - I’ve had some friends pretty excited that this song broke through from Sada Baby, an artist of whom I’ll confess I wasn’t really familiar. So going into this track… well, it’s different, I’ll give it that, but for me this hits in a different way than the younger audience who probably heard this blow up off TikTok. And yes, the ‘Whoop (There It Is)’ sample driving that pulsating hi-hat skitter is the main factor, because you’re now stuck comparing this to one of the best hype anthems of the early 90s and this isn’t that, mostly because Sada Baby is going for this hushed, raspy delivery that barely bothers to contribute slightly offbeat melody on the hook. And while the flow is certainly good, I’m not going to say the content is all that impressive - a lot of sex references which Sada Baby’s vocal timbre somehow makes sound even skeevier, and some pretty basic flexing that I really wish had some energy behind it. Again, this’ll probably click a lot more for the kids who weren’t alive for the original hype anthem, but despite being catchy and a little more unique in its production… not really feeling much of this, sorry.

92. ‘Wet. (She Got That…)’ by YFN Lucci - see, this is the consequence of Cardi B’s ‘WAP’ that we probably should have anticipated - a bunch of guys who are already horny and don’t know any better thinking it’s a good idea to push out their own sex songs that aren’t nearly as creative or fun, with it now being YFN Lucci’s turn with a song he dropped over six months ago charting now thanks to a Mulatto remix. Unfortunately that’s not what’s credited here, so we’re stuck with the original which features YFN Lucci doing his best mingled impression of Quavo and Young Thug opposite production that I mostly like - the blend of keys and swells of synth opposite the trap groove gives the song a slightly more mature-feeling trap/R&B vibe that I can definitely appreciate - a definite shame that YFN Lucci has no unique personality to fit opposite it. Brand names, some pretty rote sex references that aren’t conveyed with much enthusiasm or any sort of cleverness… in an ironic twist, it just winds up feeling pretty dry and forgettable. She might have it, but I’m not convinced YFN Lucci does - next!

91. ‘Me Gusta’ by Anitta ft. Cardi B & Myke Towers - believe it or not, I’m actually very much okay with Cardi B hopping on reggaeton tracks - I think she’s got the personality and enough command of Spanish to do well, and even when she mashes both languages together, it feels authentic, and pairing her with Anitta who’ll work a similar approach with more singing could be a nice compliment. And here’s the thing: I think this works pretty well - I think some of the quasi-beatboxing blended into the percussion is kind of blown out but against the scratchy acoustic line and more organic groove, the song has that rough texture to stand out. And then there’s the content, which has both Anitta and Cardi B talking about making out with girls and being openly bisexual - I was surprised to hear that from Cardi, but there’s evidence going back a few years where she’s said that beyond this song, and she does sell it well here. But I’ll admit it can still feel like they’re commodifying things when they have Myke Towers leering over it, which feels like a concession to the straight and bi guys that no, they can still be into you too. And this leaves me with a quandary, because you can absolutely argue this is trying to have it both ways - pun intended - but on the other hand I’ll make the same argument that I do with ‘Cool For The Summer’, in which it’s a good song that can feel authentic to the women’s experience, and I’m not going to contribute to bi erasure. So yeah, really good stuff, hope this does well.

90. ‘When You Down’ by Lil Tecca ft. Polo G & Lil Durk - I’ll be honest, I’m shocked Lil Tecca managed to get any songs on the Hot 100 at all off of that album release that I’m shocked anyone cared about - and it’s very telling that both of the songs have guest features, the first from Lil Durk and Polo G. And it’s telling how Lil Tecca hopped from being an obvious A Boogie clone to flagrantly trying to rip off Rod Wave here with the melancholic pianos and guitar blending off the trap groove. The problem is that to pull off a song like this, you need to have some angst that’s credibly sold, and while Lil Durk is talking about violent running of drugs through the streets and Polo G’s verse shows the sad consequences with dead family members and folks in prison, Lil Tecca is talking about a girl who didn’t mess with him before but does now that he has money and success, which is all the proof in the world he’s not built for something more serious! Which is kind of a shame, as I think both guest verses are fine, but they’re anchored to a lead artist who is way too lightweight to sell any of this so… call it mixed as best, let’s move on.

80. ‘Dolly’ by Lil Tecca ft. Lil Uzi Vert - Okay, now this makes more sense - someone whose content is just as vacant as Tecca’s, this should work if we’re just going for lightweight trap, right? Well, there’s actually a bit of controversy around this song, given that this is apparently a new version of a leaked cut from Lil Uzi Vert from back in 2018… which might explain why his vocals are cleaner and he’s actually someone competent in riding the beat, because Lil Tecca spends most of the song going as scattered and offbeat as Blueface, and that’s not a compliment, especially with as much autotune as he has! And it’s not one of those beats that’s difficult to ride either - blubbery synth and bass, spare keyboards and percussion - Lil Tecca is just off in a really unflattering way, and considering the song is once again disposable luxury porn and screwing your girl in some of the most basic ways possible. For god’s sake, he references Fortnite on the hook, which to me is such a transparent ploy for traffic that says way more than he does. So yeah, even with Uzi’s verse being disposable but fine, this isn’t good - next.

70. ‘Without You’ by Luke Combs ft. Amanda Shires - I mean, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that Luke Combs is releasing a deluxe edition of his album from last year - that’s how he got so much runway out of singles off his debut - but I will say I was very pleasantly surprised to see fiddle player and indie country star in her own right Amanda Shires show up. Yeah, all she gives is fiddle and not any vocals and of course it sounds great opposite the softer acoustics and pedal steel slipping in, but it’s such a welcome presence anyway that’s well deserving of the credit, which I’m thrilled she got! And Luke Combs is really damn good on this too - it’s a pretty sincere and detailed tribute to his parents having to sacrifice when he was growing up, his girl who has had to give up their time together so Combs can chase dreams, and then to the audience who come out to support him. And what I appreciate is that Combs’ humility is genuinely convincing and it doesn’t feel like pandering, specifically because it highlights sacrifice and not in a way that feels oversold. So yeah, this is just great across the board - really happy and impressed that Luke Combs is not just maturing and bringing more organic flavour to his sound, but giving a leg up to very deserving acts along the way. That kicks ass - great stuff!

62. ‘One Too Many’ by Keith Urban & P!nk - I honestly wish there was a part of me that could be surprised by this, but I’m not - when P!nk teamed up with Kenny Chesney for ‘Set The World On Fire’ four years ago, it felt less obvious than this collaboration, which is a cut neither of them wrote from Keith Urban’s newest album for which I received precisely zero requests to cover. And you’d think this would work - middle-of-the-road, generally agreeable pop with P!nk who is still a legit great singer even if so much of her material is sanitized these days. But the problem is that the song that we’re getting is an overcompressed, weirdly canned-sounding pop soul cut that can’t even pretend to be country and yet has none of the organic swell or firepower you’d hope from a good soul song, especially for as how tinny all the backing vocals and acoustics sound! For the life of me I have no idea why Keith Urban thought this was a good song to hop onboard, given how ‘soulful’ has not been a tool in his arsenal, and you’d think that vocal warmth and texture would be ideal for a song where a couple is trying to fight and the guy goes off to get drunk and they realize they need each other in the end. This has the chintzy feel of a sitcom arc, and a pretty dated one at that, and with the production as limp as it is… yeah, you’re not missing anything. It’s not good, next!

51. ‘Diamonds’ by Sam Smith - So apparently Sam Smith has their release schedule somewhat organized for that upcoming album, given that all those singles they were prepping for the past few years have been shoved to the back for bonus content and to boost the streaming presence. Which is good, I’m curious to talk about them, and with this single… okay, wow, I’m impressed. For one, this is a kiss-off in the vein of ‘How Do You Sleep’, but the glassy keys drop into a much more satisfying bassline that reminds me of Charlie Puth’s ‘Attention’, but it’s actually somehow a bit more bitter when you drill into it. Yeah, there’s still feelings on the table, but you get the impression this ex is looking to take a lot more from Smith than just their heart, and that tempers some of the venom. But the groove really helps - I tend to agree that when Smith stays near their lower register and gets something a bit more propulsive you’ll get success, and this might be one of their best ever examples. Again, with Sam Smith it’s been a bit of a crapshoot how well their singles have landed, but I think this could be one of their best since ‘Dancing With A Stranger’, pretty much on groove and emotional balance. In other words… yeah, if this came out of the reboot, I’m on-board - great song!

3. ‘Holy’ by Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper - …see, I remember seeing folks kind of shocked that Justin Bieber made a quasi-religious pivot in his music, but I wasn’t - he’s been pretty openly religious outside of his music for a while, where it’s actually spread into some of his fashion, and it’s been a convenient deflector for some of the fuckboi shit he’s been caught in. But now that he’s here and he’s got Chance for the obvious Christian music cred, is the song at least okay? Well, do any of you remember that Florida Georgia Line piano ballad of the same name that was also an acronym for ‘high on loving you’? Yeah, this is Bieber’s version of that - the way you hold me makes me feel holy - although with significantly less charisma because Bieber is a vacant presence with nothing close to soul in his delivery. And I’m not kidding about the double meaning, ‘partially about his wife, partially about Jesus’ thing going on, because it’s clear both Bieber and Chance are working that double entendre and it rapidly becomes a bit excruciating - ‘running to the altar like a track star’, ‘I’m a believer, my heart is fleshy / life is short with a temper like Joe Pesci’… actually, scratch that, all of Chance’s verse is bad, reminiscent of the cornball rhymes that stuffed The Big Day but minus the narrative, texture, or any sense of insight that saved the better moments. And on the topic of texture, Jon Bellion cowrote and produced this and while I can hear his cadence creeping through the structure, he’s delivered far more than limp keys and a pretty weak attempt at gospel. And let’s be real - if this was played on Christian radio and by any artist on that format, we’d laugh this out of the room, so I’m not about to give Bieber and Chance a pass, even though at this point I don’t think either of them know better.

Now this is not the worst of the week - that goes to ‘Dolly’ by Lil Tecca and Lil Uzi Vert because Lil Tecca’s flagrant incompetence is way more distracting - but it is getting the Dishonourable Mention and I can hear this souring even further on me if it stick around. Fortunately, outside of that there were some really good songs this week, where picking the best actually was a bit tough… and I think I’m gonna go for ‘Diamonds’ by Sam Smith just edging out with ‘Without You’ by Luke Combs and Amanda Shires… absolutely close, but Sam Smith surprised and impressed me a bit more. Next week… well, we’ll see what of this lasts, so stay tuned!