billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - october 29, 2022
Well, it turns out October wasn’t that busy outside of album releases after all - it just means we have three solid weeks of album bombs in a row to finish out the Billboard year! Yeah, that came faster than I realized, because unless Billboard tacks on a 53rd week, the Billboard year is ending in mid-November. And yes, I know this has happened in decades past, but you’d think they’d think far enough ahead to be on top of this!
Anyway, there are some big stories this week and they start in the top ten, where as I predicted, ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras has taken the #1. And you’d think it’d be set up to hold that spot - it rules sales and streaming, the radio is on the upswing - but we have a record-breaking Taylor Swift album bomb coming next week, and it’s set to do a number on the top 10 and there’s no guarantee this’ll hold that spot. It unseated ‘Bad Habit’ by Steve Lacy to #2, but it honestly might have more stability, as the streaming is still good and the radio is really robust, which is also something I can say for ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles at #3 where it just clung to more radio gains as its streaming can’t compete anymore. Speaking of which, we have our first new top 10 entry: ‘California Breeze’ by Lil Baby at #4. Yes, the album bomb is here and it charted based on streaming and pretty much nothing else, we’ve been down this road before - but hey, it knocked back ‘I Like You (A Happier Song)’ by Post Malone and Doja Cat to #5 as it seems like it’s hit its radio peak and might start on the downswing. It’s sadly not the case for ‘I Ain’t Worried’ by OneRepublic holding at #6, mostly running on a stable radio edge, but that still held over ‘You Proof’ by Morgan Wallen knocked back to #7, mostly because that song took streaming losses and has been starting to waver on the radio. Then we have another Lil Baby song with ‘Forever’ featuring Fridayy at #8 - copy/paste the same reason for the last song - and while ‘Super Freaky Girl’ by Nicki Minaj hangs on at #9 as it looks like her radio is finally there, we have another Lil Baby song with ‘Real Spill’ at #10 to round things out.
And that unsurprisingly leads to our losers and dropouts, where it was a big week across the board. And with album bombs that strike this high, they tend to clear out a lot of songs not going anywhere or that should be exiting anyway, so in the list of songs not making any year end list, ‘With A Woman You Love’ by Justin Moore, ‘Truth About You’ by Mitchell Tenpenny, ‘Neverita’ by Bad Bunny, ‘Dah Dah DahDah’ by Nardo Wick, ‘Hotel Lobby (Unc and Phew)’ by Quavo and Takeoff, and ‘F.N.F. (Let’s Go)’ by Hitkidd and Glorilla. Then we have a few borderline cuts - ‘Last Night Lonely’ by Jon Pardi and ‘Sleazy Flow’ by SleazyWorld Go and Lil Baby, and then the songs that are long-overdue for their exit: ‘Running Up That Hill’ by Kate Bush, ‘Moscow Mule’ by Bad Bunny, ‘Big Energy’ by Latto, and finally ‘Heat Waves’ by Glass Animals - that song broke records for chart longevity and finally it’s gone, thank god!
But now we reach the common problem with massive album bombs - we have twenty four new songs, forty six losers, and to round things out a few gains, two expected from Lil Baby with ‘In A Minute’ at 16 and ‘Heyy’ at 21, one riding a bad meme with ‘Poland’ by Lil Yachty at 40, and ‘Gotta Move On’ by Diddy and Bryson Tiller at 79. And factor out the top ten, it honestly makes more sense to focus on the few songs that didn’t move and might somehow survive this… which is what I’m going to do. So outside of the top ten, we had the expected songs holding on thanks to radio like ‘Sunroof’ by Nicky Youre and dazy at 11, ‘Vegas’ by Doja Cat at 13, ‘Wasted On You’ by Morgan Wallen at 17, ‘Wait For U’ by Future, Tems and Drake at 18, ‘About Damn Time’ by Lizzo at 20, ‘Late Night Talking’ by Harry Styles at 27, ‘She Had Me At Heads Carolina’ by Cole Swindell at 28, and ‘Jimmy Cooks’ by Drake and 21 Savage at 31 - this might rebound with that upcoming album nobody asked for. Then we have songs that have enough virality to hold on, like ‘Something In The Orange’ by Zach Bryan at 12, ‘I’m Good (Blue)’ by David Guetta and Bebe Rexha at 14, ‘Tomorrow 2’ by Glorilla and Cardi B at 24, ‘Under The Influence’ by Chris Brown at 29, ‘Cuff It’ by Beyonce at 33, ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd at 37, and ‘Golden Hour’ by JVKE at 62. Then we have two Bailey Zimmerman songs holding up because of the EP release like ‘Rock And A Hard Place’ at 35 and ‘Fall In Love’ at 36. And then we have two where I just don’t know how they survived: ‘Don’t Come Lookin’ by Jackson Dean at 50 - I think I’ll blame Nashville radio for this - and ‘Forget Me’ by Lewis Capaldi at 99, where it looks like adult-alternative radio is propping it up. Trust me when I say this was faster than me rattling off losers that would encompass nearly half of the goddamn Hot 100, this episode is going to be long enough as it is!
Anyway, now getting to that list of new arrivals, album bomb rules are absolutely in effect, so outside of the top 20 and neither the best nor worst from Lil Baby, we have ‘Stop Playin’ with Jeremih at 81, ‘No Fly Zone’ at 80, ‘FR’ at 76, ‘Russian Roulette’ at 70 - the introspection on this one was close to getting it there for me - ‘Danger’ at 69, ‘Back And Forth’ with EST Gee at 68, ‘Top Priority’ at 64, ‘Shiest Talk’ with Pooh Shiesty at 58, ‘Cost To Be Alive’ with Rylo Rodriguez at 57, ‘Double Down’ at 54 - and this one was close, the spare groove clicked pretty well - ‘Everything’ at 52, ‘Waterfall Flow’ at 45, ‘From Now On’ with Future at 42, ‘Perfect Timing’ at 32, and ‘Stand On It’ at 22.
Now onto a still hefty but at least manageable list…
86. ‘Just Wanna Rock’ by Lil Uzi Vert - honestly, I’m not even sure where Lil Uzi Vert goes at this point. They put two albums in 2020, it looks like there’s a new single dropping amidst one of the busiest gauntlets this fall… by diving into the glossy rush of sugary synths and pulsating low-end you normally hear in rage but this is closer to Jersey club. Ironically it doesn’t feel like that far of a jump for Uzi, given they were making material close to this sound for the past five years… but I have to be honest, there’s not much worth noting with this. The song feels like more producer tag and adlib than much beyond its limited hook and extended outro, it feels like it’s missing a snare or hi-hat, it’s borderline unfinished even if Uzi sounds really engaged with it. If this was a full song I might actually endorse this, the synth tones feel more rich and balanced… but that’s about it.
61. ‘Edging’ by Blink-182 - Okay, I’m not so naive as to wonder why we’re getting a new Blink-182 song in 2022, especially with Travis Barker’s run of success as a producer and Tom DeLonge making his return. But that doesn’t mean we have to give this a pass - the cymbals are crushed into a slurry and the guitars are shoved midway back, the handclaps sound fake, and both Hoppus and DeLonge sound painfully overprocessed in the vocal lead - you can tell it was a struggle to get this to sound like they did years ago, and vocally that was never exceptional, and for trying to imitate their bratty early years when they’re in their mid-to-late 40s it feels like a misstep. What’s telling is that for content all about hard reunions and hitting the road again with that brash energy, the verve just isn’t quite there - and hell, with that song title, it seems apt for a track that teases satisfaction but leaves you exasperated with no finish. Yes, I just put that mental image in your head, this isn’t any good, next!
53. ‘Bye Bye’ by Marshmello & Juice WRLD - You can’t be serious. Juice WRLD has nearly been gone for three years, and we’re still mining old leaks for more fragments, this one from early 2019? And given how the song opens with Marshmello cribbing Juice WRLD lines for a tag, it’s all the more disgusting - and for what? Juice WRLD delivers a hook twice dumping some girl that gets annoying in its sub two minute runtime, the verse is mildly poetic in its self-destructive impulses, but outside of that, all Marshmello contributes is a weedling melody and a rickety, overcompressed trap clatter with the bass swamping the edges. In other words, as formless and forgettable as usual and it feels all the more craven for it. If you care to listen to this, stick to the leaks, don’t give anyone involved a cent of your time or money.
26. ‘Not Finished’ by Lil Baby - This is probably the best song on Lil Baby’s new album, and if I’m saying this just because the flows are fast and tight as all hell… yeah, pretty much, the song goes hard and fast against the cycling keys and rougher trap percussion, and Lil Baby matches the energy really effectively. More importantly it fits with the underlying paranoia of the song, the first verse referencing those chasing him down in the streets and a certain woman who was a little too flagrant in their hookup - I’ve heard rumors that was Saweetie, but Lil Baby kept her name out which was a nice touch - while the second verse is more street level flexing protecting his place in the streets but it’s just considerably better executed. That’s what can work with Lil Baby, when he’s spitting fast and focused he tends to be pretty decent, and this is actually pretty damn good, I’ll keep it.
19. ‘Never Hating’ by Lil Baby & Young Thug - The reason this charted so high was the Young Thug feature - one of perhaps too few on an album this long - and I’ll admit I’m not sure I like the production with Wheezy’s percussion feeling a little too heavy against the hazy of shuddering orchestral stings, even if Lil Baby plays off of them well. And Young Thug is in brand name mode so no much to say with that, but Lil Baby does drop a tighter verse that I like, half because of the switch-up on the final third and but also how you can tell he’s got no use for rap beef - he’s trying to make money, praying that his friends are equipped when he pulls them into business meetings, and for everyone copying his style or flow, it’s not worth his time to fight them; he’s secure in himself, he’d rather cheer them on so they win. So… yeah, ultimately this is one of the better songs, I’ll keep it.
15. ‘Pop Out’ by Lil Baby & Nardo Wick - You know, I was somewhat onboard with this one: the orchestral bombast and choral vocals laid some ominous groundwork for Lil Baby’s verse, where alongside the flexing he’s at least trying to focus on stacking for his family and community and will push himself to the brink for that… and then the beat switches and we get Nardo Wick on a darker trap groove where you can tell the majority of his focus is stacking cash and laying the pipe right, he’s her new plumber. Sadly Lil Baby isn’t particularly good after the switch either - a lot more flexing, buying cars, taking your girl… wait, on ‘Stand On It’, one song previous on the tracklist, he said he wasn’t even interested, so what gives? I get the song is playing to a darker vibe, but without a hook I think this would have been better off expanding on the first beat, there was at least potential there. Not bad, but it should be better.
10. ‘Real Spill’ by Lil Baby - Okay, album opener, and this is the sort of Lil Baby song where I feel like I should feel more than I do. The very spare, melancholic sample, the bassy tap and stock trap percussion, and Lil Baby talking about leveling up his life and focusing less on street level violence and more about hustling and stacking money to provide for his family. And you can tell that neverending struggle to get to the top is still weighing heavily on him, but I feel like we’re still getting held slightly at arm’s length when the flexing and name dropping takes priority. I mean, it’s not bad, but it’s also not that interesting, and with a limited tune, I’d probably forget it quickly.
8. ‘Forever’ by Lil Baby ft. Fridayy - I’ll give Lil Baby this, he does seem to realize that getting the more complicated ‘romantic’ record will sustain his career beyond all the hustle - in many ways, this is a Drake record - and this song with Fridayy’s more autotuned soul is a good step, especially opposite the mournful keys and the slight swells as he tells the story of this girl who has a man where they have to keep it on the low but he wants more. And there’s enough nuance to highlight the dejected mess of it, but between the line about threatening to beat her ass and how he’s willing to go low and highlight how much she ‘owes’ him, there’s not quite enough in the moral ambiguity that makes me want to root for this. And part of the problem is that Lil Baby is still not really expressive as a vocalist. He can make a song like this decent, and I think this is close… but it’s not better, so we might be seeing a ceiling, just saying.
4. ‘California Breeze’ by Lil Baby - what is it about this album that seems to treat any greater tune with disinterest? Outside of the distant guitar that fades into the mix, the vocal sample, and some very subtle background touches, the most actual melody probably comes from Lil Baby’s vocals opposite admittedly some really crisp, well-balanced percussion. The problem is that the relationship melodrama described just feels a little empty to me - both of them are kind of faking it, going through the motions, where there’s some very obvious passive-aggressive conflict that may have caused it to fall apart… and yet by the second verse Lil Baby is still talking about other women as he tries to get her back! It’s frustrating because I feel like there could be something here - this sort of messy relationship song is what Drake can deliver routinely - but the influx of filler bars and a hook that doesn’t quite allow more vulnerability just leaves me a little cold on this one. Probably one of the better cuts, but I’m not sure there’s much to sustain it.
And that’s our week - a bit odd all things considered, but Lil Baby at least manages to clinch both of the best with the top spot to ‘Not Finished’ and the Honourable Mention to ‘Never Hating’ with Young Thug - hell, Lil Baby could have taken that one by himself. The interesting thing is that he’s not getting any of the worst slots, because that’s going to ‘Bye Bye’ by Marshmello and the late Juice WRLD with Dishonourable Mention to ‘Edging’ by Blink-182 - fans, I don’t want to hear it, against any of their best this is painful and glorified fanservice that they can’t pull off well, they don’t get an automatic pass from me. Anyway, next week is a whole lot of Taylor Swift, and it’s likely going to overtake the entire top 10… so yeah, stay tuned for that!