billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - october 17, 2020

So turns out last week the one thing I didn’t predict is probably the most obvious thing to predict: we were going to get an album bomb from 21 Savage and Metro Boomin. Now this is one of those cases where I’m not really about to complain about it - it was a good album, I’m not against the charts getting a solid shakeup before the end of the Billboard year, it could make for something interesting. And yet somehow that story is going to get overshadowed by a #1 that really was just a matter of time, but somehow frustrates me with its circumstance the more I think about it…

Yeah, let’s just get to the top 10, ‘Savage Love’ by Jawsh 685 and Jason Derulo went to #1, courtesy of a remix from BTS. Now there’s a lot of questionable discourse and bad takes around all of this - I’ve seen a lot circulating who is using who to get the #1 which feels skeevy no matter how you slice it - but to me this seems like a collaboration where both sides get what they want, with Jason Derulo’s first #1 since ‘Whatcha Say’ and BTS giving themselves another chart-topping hit. Now again, it’s not going to last - the radio is actively sliding away and this song has long been short on streaming - but that’s not the point so long as they got the initial stat as there’s no dominant #1 right now. But I think I’ve figured out why this #1 chasing via remix irks me and other people, with BTS not being alone but definitely being the most flagrant in recent memory, and I’m going to make a basketball analogy: it’s the equivalent of James Harden baiting for fouls on his step-back 3s. Sure, it works and it fits the letter of the rules and you’ll always have fans who only care about the results, but it’s one-dimensional, cheapens their overall appeal - which in terms of the songs BTS has certainly made better than the hits they’ve gotten this way - and can be really obnoxious to watch especially as I’m not sure this translates long-term - queue the Mike D’Antoni years with Harden. And it’s not like BTS is just doing this with one song, because at #2 we have ‘Dynamite’ and courtesy of its massive sales driven off remixes and finally getting a bit of a radio push, it’s right behind. So then I look at ‘WAP’ by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion at #3, which unfortunately looks like it’s getting pushed out prematurely because it spent the week losing radio hard, even despite it remaining as strong as ever in streams. Then we have ‘Mood’ by 24kGoldn and iann dior up to #4 - again, I’m rooting for this as the radio push is enormous and it survived an album bomb hit to its streaming, so this has momentum to get higher - hell, it even blew past ‘Laugh Now Cry Later’ by Drake and Lil Durk down to #5, which skidded and fell beneath ‘Mood’ in both streaming and radio. Next are two that are stable but on their way out in all channels, ‘Blinding Lights’ by The Weeknd at #6 and ‘ROCKSTAR’ by DaBaby and Roddy Ricch at #7… but then we have ‘I Hope’ by Gabby Barrett and Charlie Puth at #8, which rode a ton of radio this week and mostly stable sales to take its slots. The last two entries are both from our 21 Savage / Metro Boomin album bomb - aka, riding a ton of streaming - which translates to ‘Runnin’ at #9 and ‘Mr. Right Now’ with Drake at #10. Knowing our luck it’s probably going to be the Drake collab that sticks, but I’m hoping ‘Runnin’ is the one with traction, we’ll see.

Now to the surprise of nobody, since we’ve got an album bomb we have a hefty list of losers and dropouts, and in the latter category we had some big ones… and also ‘Nobody’s Love’ by Maroon 5! Nah, to be a bit more serious, ‘Like That’ by Doja Cat and Gucci Mane finished its collapse, as did ‘Smile’ by Juice WRLD and The Weeknd, ‘Dollaz On My Head’ by Gunna and Young Thug also exited, and now for the big entries: ‘We Paid’ by Lil Baby and 42 Dugg, ‘Die From A Broken Heart’ by Maddie & Tae - it made the year-end list, so I’m happy - ‘Chasing You’ by Morgan Wallen, and finally ‘Life Is Good’ by Future ft. Drake. But the bigger story is that nearly a full third of the chart lost traction… so let’s get through it. Off the debut, we had the expected sharp drop for ‘FRANCHISE’ by Travis Scott, Young Thug and M.I.A. to 25 - nice remix with Future to staunch some bleeding - ‘Epidemic’ by Polo G to 93, and then the expected fades for Machine Gun Kelly’s album bomb with ‘bloody valentine’ down to 90 and ‘forget me too’ with Halsey to 96. He also saw all the gains for ‘my ex’s best friend’ with blackbear go to 50, and while we’re here, ‘Everywhere But On’ by Matt Stell also lost its gains to 79 as did ‘Blind’ by DaBaby and Young Thug to 99. Then we had the continued losers: ‘Said Sum’ by Moneybagg Yo at 51, ‘Rain On Me’ by Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande probably on its final week at 65, ‘Cool Again’ by Kane Brown at 70, and ‘Diamonds’ by Sam Smith at 80 - don’t worry, it should rebound soon. Then, to list through the rest here… ‘Caramelo’ by Ozuna at 100, ‘Kacey Talk’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again at 98, ‘Girls In The Hood’ by Megan Thee Stallion, ‘Do It’ by Chloe x Halle at 94, ‘Relacion’ by Sech, ROSALIA, Daddy Yankee, J Balvin & Farruko at 92, ‘The Bigger Picture’ by Lil Baby at 89, ‘Greece’ by DJ Khaled at 88, ‘Hit Different’ by SZA and Ty Dolla $ign at 87, and ‘Martin & Gina’ by Polo G at 86. Then we had ‘Starting Over’ by Chris Stapleton at 81, ‘Breaking Me’ by Topic and A7S at 78, ‘cardigan’ by Taylor Swift at 77 - honestly, surprised it’s held on as long as it has - ‘Wishing Well’ by Juice WRLD at 62, ‘Midnight Sky’ by Miley Cyrus at 55, ‘I Should Probably Go To Bed’ by Dan + Shay at 54, ‘Rags2Riches’ by Rod Wave at 49, ‘Tap In’ by Saweetie at 47, ‘If The World Was Ending’ by JP Saxe and Julia Michaels at 43, ‘The Woo’ by Pop Smoke, 50 Cent and Roddy Ricch at 42, ‘Lovin’ On You’ by Luke Combs at 40, and ‘POPSTAR’ by DJ Khaled and Drake at 34.

Now here’s the thing: there were no new gains this week, but a big return courtesy of it going viral on TikTok - because of course it did - and that is ‘Dreams’ by Fleetwood Mac. A classic song from a classic album that went to #1 in 1977, I’m not going to complain that it came back, but I do question how long it’ll stick around beyond a week or two. The bigger story is the album bomb, and with the rules in effect, here are the songs that fell below the top 40 that didn’t otherwise meet my criteria for best or worst of the week. So of that list from 21 Savage and Metro Boomin, ‘RIP Luv’ at 76, ‘Steppin On’ at 74, ‘No Opp Left Behind’ at 70, ‘Snitches & Rats’ with Young Nudy at 61, ‘Brand New Draco’ at 57, and ‘My Dawg’ and 56.

So with that, here’s our still considerable list of new arrivals…

91. ‘Said N Done’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin - so as per usual with album bomb entries, I want to keep this pretty short, especially as I already reviewed the album at length… and this is probably one of the best songs on it because it shows traces of that maturity and insight that 21 Savage displayed on his last project and actually working on softer production courtesy of the Patti LaBelle sample anchored off the scratchy trap sample. And the content is what you’d expect from 21 in the flexing and gunplay, but there’s a melancholic side in processing the pains of lost and feeling like he’s not breaking free of the heavy debts that weigh on his soul. It’s a prettier moment than I think folks will expect from 21 Savage, but it’s one that’s incredibly well-balanced - highly recommended.

84. ‘Years Go By’ by Bryson Tiller - this will not be fair, but at least for me it’s true: I haven’t followed Bryson Tiller at all and I was only barely aware that he was putting out something new, let alone the fact that he got three songs on the Hot 100 this week. And that’s a mistake on my part - I remember his last album doing better on the Hot 100 than I had suspected, so let’s go through what we’ve got here. And as someone who is not a Bryson Tiller fan, I think this is okay - very much in his trap/R&B mold with the hi-hats and his crooning and a lot of the content, trying to keep his girl alongside him as he chases success, but the song feels brighter than usual, with a little more momentum; the tempo is a little quicker and the washed out sample still preserves some sparkle. I’m not going to say it’s great - nothing here really rises above average and it’s not all that tuneful or striking without a real hook - but it’s fine enough, I don’t mind it.

83. ‘Always Forever’ by Bryson Tiller - second Bryson Tiller cut… and it looks like Tiller’s going to hone in on a formula of watery, washed out samples behind skitters at the front of the mix and an abundance of autotune, so why is it so much less likable this time? Well, part of it is because the pitch correction seems to strip the depth out of Tiller’s voice to make him appear more watery, but I’d put more of it on the content, where it’s clear her affection has run dry after a few years and Tiller’s trying to split the difference between demanding she end it, accusing her of cheating, and still wanting her attention. I get having mixed and complicated emotions in cases like this, but Tiller’s delivery just makes him come across reedy and not particularly mature here, which is fair bit less attractive than I think he’s trying to sell it. So yeah, not nearly as much of a fan of this - next!

73. ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby - I mean, ‘Love Again’ was right goddamn there if you weren’t going to try and get ‘Physical’ to really stick, you don’t have to go with the DaBaby remix of your song here, especially as I’d argue his ‘guarantee-a-hit’ for guest features is pretty overexposed at this point! Now that being said, ‘Levitating’ is still a pretty solid nu-disco song with a pretty slick groove off that echoing sample and in terms of balanced production it is better than what DaBaby usually has had the past year… and even though I think his verse is the definition of pop disposability, he doesn’t really embarrass himself either. It reminds me a lot of the pop guest verses Ludacris would drop ten years ago - in that it’s fine but also very much a quick paycheque and an easy pop crossover. As it is… the song is still good, so if this is what it takes for traction, I’m not going to complain.

59. ‘Lovesick Girls’ by BLACKPINK - man, BLACKPINK is really trying to get that lasting traction leading up to their new album, aren’t they? Granted, coming off of ‘Ice Cream’ you have to think that anything else they put out will be a step up. And here’s the thing: of BLACKPINK songs I’ve heard thus far, I actually think this is pretty likable… but that’s also because it’s a flagrant retread of early 2010s, club-boom adjacent pop with the big sing-a-long chorus, acoustic lead-in, and slightly washed out tones that pick up more texture as the verse develops. Hell, the only real difference is that the synths aren’t as obnoxious - surprising coming from BLACKPINK - and that there are slight elements of a trap cadence in the lyrics, which are lovelorn and a little oversold when you dig into the content but feel generally hopeful. But this is one of those cases like BTS’ ‘Dynamite’ where you can tell BLACKPINK are pushing aside of their established identity to make something more accessible… and yet I think BLACKPINK’s flagrant throwback might have worked even more, because I think this is pretty damn good. So yeah, a nice surprise here - check it out.

48. ‘Outta Time’ by Bryson Tiller ft. Drake - the biggest of our Bryson Tiller debuts and of course it’s the one with Drake, shocker… and here’s a question, why did you chipmunk a sample of Snoh Aalegra with even more creaking and clunky percussion before suffocating Bryson Tiller in even more autotune so it doesn’t match with Drake’s opening verse and hook at all? This has been a pet peeve of mine for a while - if you have a song where your guest should be on equal footing with you, maybe keep the vocal production roughly the same, especially if you’re both playing the same lane of content? Because it’ll lead to a case where Drake of all people comes out looking more mature and balanced in why this relationship didn’t work out, where Tiller is once again playing the blame game and not sounding like he can back it up. Overall… yeah, this is probably the worst of Tiller’s debuts - not a fan, at all.

37. ‘Fallin’ by Why Don’t We - okay, for those of you who think this came out of nowhere, I need to provide some context surrounding who these guys are. Why Don’t We is an American boy band that started around 2016, put out an album I vaguely remember getting a bit of hype in 2018, and for this song in particular, they primed their fanbase for a massive direct sales buy with signed CDs…it has no radio, no streaming, the YouTube seems well-timed but without a ton of streaming traction, so I don’t expect this to last. And wow, that might be the most flagrant sample of the ‘Black Skinhead’ drums I’ve heard in a while… which kind of irks me because this song is instead opting for more willowy voiced crooning to try and blunt the aggression without much in the way of vocal interplay - maybe I’m just old here, but I came from a generation where pop groups at least tried to harmonize with an interesting arrangement, or had members with more immediately distinctive voices. More to the point, once you pick up that this song is just trying to be a redux of ‘Youngblood’ but with less originality or flair, I can’t even really get into the content, which tries to create panic at newfound love and just doesn’t stick. But really, while this isn’t precisely bad, I do think they should try a lot harder than this - next!

33. ‘Many Men’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin - …maybe it’s just me, but if there’s already been a hit that samples what you’re interpolating this year, and not only is it better but the artist who died so died tragically, maybe you could have held back releasing this one? That’s not saying this is bad - the strings and twinkles are ominous and borderline gothic behind the trap snares, and 21’s flow is on-point… even as he’s bragging about stealing and fucking your girl while she’s on coke and the mingled blend of sex and shooting people that doesn’t always stick for 21’s best. It nails more of his dangerous side… but I’ll admit even in the points where I’ve liked this in the past week, it’s cooled on me.

32. ‘Slidin’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin - okay, this is better - darker, hollow melodies, sharp trap hi-hats, even more spare with a great low key hook augmented by the piano and 21 goes through all the ways he’s going to shoot people… although him saying his glock has a dildo attachment has me asking way too many questions! Either way… yes, it’s a single minded track, but it’s impressively ominous, and it does work in what it sets out to do - I’m fine with this one.

30. ‘Don’t Stop’ by Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug - so here’s a question: what is Megan Thee Stallion’s label doing with these scattered singles? I get trying to keep up popular momentum, but ‘WAP’ is still in the top five and unless you’re announcing an album or project some time soon to back this up, the scattered singles approach feels really haphazard. It reminds me of when Cardi was pushing a bunch of singles that went nowhere last year, and it didn’t work for her either, but at least is this good? Well, it’s different… but also not, and to explain that you have to realize that Megan’s on her ‘flexing / steal and discard your man’ vibes and while her bars feel sharper, I’m not sure they can overcome Young Thug here saying he’ll ‘cream that pussy like mayos’ - charming. No, what threw me a lot more was the grainy, abrasive synth and eerie twinkles blended in for the hook behind the trap percussion - it sounds like something that would have come from a more sedate Death Grips or clipping. instrumental if they ever tried going mainstream, and while Megan sounds fine over it, Young Thug has nothing to work with and it doesn’t flatter his tone or delivery at all. So in a way, it actually makes sense this feels like a throwaway single - a quick experiment… shame it only works halfway.

26. ‘Rich Nigga Shit’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Young Thug - I really don’t get why 21 Savage keeps going for the luxury rap flexing, because even as he rattles through brand names as Young Thug talks about his cars, it’s just not something that sounds natural for him, even if I will say the sex references here are more toned down and that’s absolutely a good thing. If anything, I think I like the production on this more than the actual content - outside of the wonky clanks that occasionally pop up in the percussion, the spare trap percussion, firmer bass, and muted keys splashing off the ragged string hits that precise balance between glossy glamour and danger that’s a good fit for 21 at least. I still think Thugger needs more melody to fully maximize his potential, but this is better than I would normally expect given what it’s trying to do - not great, but definitely good.

19. ‘Glock In My Lap’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin - okay, this is the 21 Savage I can really like - the deep pianos off the shuddering rumble as the trap snares slide up, with the horror movie strings and ragged subtle grinds across the hook, and 21 single-mindedly leaning into murderous, gangland impulses, where even as a full-time rapper he’s got the capacity to kill you in plenty of different ways with a sobriety that might be more unsettling. I’m not the hugest fan of how he ends the track with sex references, but for a song with atmosphere this impressively thick, I’m comfortable saying this is really damn potent. One of the best on the album, recommended.

18. ‘Wonder’ by Shawn Mendes - well this is… honestly a bit later than I was expecting, but again, since Shawn Mendes pulled out of his tailspin in 2018 with that self-titled album, it looks like he’s building into something promising for this upcoming fourth project - I’m still kind of shocked he’s on album four already but that’s a different conversation. But okay, ‘Wonder’… well, it’s not what I expected from Shawn Mendes, because if you’re looking for a guitar rollick or any sense of groove at all, this isn’t that - it feels like he’s following the same trail of shirt-rending blasts of anxiety that are his usual lead-off singles, but this one takes all the texture and pushes it into an orchestral haze with touches of horns and slightly louder drums… not normally what I’d expect from Mendes. Now I don’t mind the moments that are trying to be more reflective and pensive on hoping his friends see his affection and a desire to be vulnerable, but I think the hook hits an odd mark with its word choice: ‘wonder’ implies uncertainty, that you might not have it, and yet if this song is actually about his relationship with Camila Cabello, it feels awfully insecure, desperate but without any sense of urgency. I dunno folks, I appreciate the bombast, but this feels like an odd misfire of a song… and honestly one I don’t really like, so I’m going to pass here.

10. ‘Mr. Right Now’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake - let me start by saying this song wouldn’t have been all that good even if Drake wasn’t here: the glassy warble trying to back up 21’s autotuned crooning is not flattering and he doesn’t have the range or presence to make this a convincing sex jam in the pretty underwritten verse he has. But then Drake shows up, who might sound more comfortable but chooses to complain about haters online and how he dated SZA back in ‘08… when she was 17. I get SZA trying to cover with excuses of ‘poetic license’ but to me this screams of Drake telling on himself on a song that’s pretty mediocre to begin with. So no pass for this, and even though it’s probably going to stick around, it really shouldn’t.

9. ‘Runnin’ by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin - I’m at least happy of the songs that debuted this week from 21 that this wound up the biggest, because it’s a stronger opener after the intro and a pretty damn good song to boot, as it opens with a nice Diana Ross sample that 21 flips into a much darker, piano accented hollow darkness. Now again, 21 defaulting to the references of all the plastic surgery he’s bought his women is a weird flex, but eventually it gets back to his comfort zone of killing people even despite his success, and it’s a better fit… although I will say if this is 21’s most flashy writing on this collab, I do think there are more steps he could take to fully match the power of Metro Boomin’s production, of which he falls a little short.

Still, this wasn’t a bad week - worst is going to ‘Outta Time’ by Bryson Tiller with Dishonourable Mention going to ‘Mr. Right Now’ by 21 Savage and Metro Boomin - both songs have Drake involved, and they don’t wind up better for it, although I will mention the latter only just beat out ‘Wonder’ by Shawn Mendes, which I’d argue falls completely flat. Best of the week… 21 Savage and Metro Boomin obviously get both of these, with ‘Said N Done’ narrowly beating ‘Glock In My Lap’ for the Best. Next week… well, I’m not seeing the album bomb coming from out of nowhere to take over, so it might just be fallout - stay tuned!