billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - november 7, 2020

There’s a part of me that can’t help but think back four years, to a Tuesday where I was struggling to edit Billboard BREAKDOWN while keeping my eye on polls and incoming vote counts and just having a sinking feeling as I’m trying to edit an Meek Mill mixtape album bomb episode for Dreamchasters 4 - seriously. And it was a rough night - I’m hoping this comes out better, and while I’m not superstitious by any means, especially when this week we got such a scattered list of new arrivals that shows no clarity, but if this is late or I appear distracted, that’s why.

Which is frustrating this week had a lot going on, and we have to start with the top 10, specifically a new #1 that I did see coming but I’m still a bit surprised she pulled it off again: ‘positions’ by Ariana Grande. Massive streaming and YouTube breakthrough, already has real steam on the radio, and it would have topped the sales charts… except for the second real surprise in the top 10: ‘Forever After All’ by Luke Combs at #2. I don’t think any of y’all realize how huge that is for a country song to debut in the top 10 like this - for Morgan Wallen and ‘7 Summers’ I think I’ve been vindicated by calling out its Tiktok promo strategy given that it promptly went nowhere after that, and even here I’d probably chalk most of this to Combs getting a minor album bomb courtesy of his album’s rerelease - we’ll get into the details later - but still, without radio and with the on-demand streaming traction this got alone with ruling sales, this is damn near unprecedented. Hell, while you can say that the pop charts in the 90s were genre-segregated from country and that if they were all genre you might have seen something like this from Garth Brooks at his peak, that’s only a hypothetical - Luke Combs made it a reality. All of this alongside ‘Mood’ by 24kGoldn and iann dior topping radio and remaining decently strong in other channels to hold at #3, which is a similar story for ‘Laugh Now Cry Later’ by Drake ft. Lil Durk falling to #4 as it looks like it hit a radio peak and actually lags a bit on streaming. Then we have ‘Blinding Lights’ by The Weeknd holding at #5 - look, it’s going to head out, but it actually got a bit of a streaming boost this week even as its radio starts to decay. What held steady was ‘I Hope’ by Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth at #6 - good radio propping up other categories - and then we have a pretty sharp drop for ‘WAP’ by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion. This doesn’t surprise me - radio has been getting rid of it for a while, sales aren’t great, and on-demand streaming is the first thing to crack during an album bomb, you can expect it to fall further. Hell, it might fall past ‘Savage Love’ by Jawsh 685 and Jason Derulo at #8, which peaked on the radio and is now on its way out, but it’ll be slower. Then we had ‘Lemonade’ by Internet Money, Nav, Don Toliver and Gunna up to #9 - no sales to speak of, but the radio is slowly getting onboard as the streaming remains strong - and at #10 we have ‘Holy’ by Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper. The reason it fell is slight weaknesses on sales and streaming, but it still has some radio momentum - it might stall out early - and either way seems like it’s going to get caught between years, but if it survives Ariana Grande’s album bomb next week, it could still recover, just watch.

It doesn’t seem like it’s going to join our losers and dropouts - at least not beyond next week - but if we’re looking at the latter category, I’d argue it’s a case of delayed impact; the album bomb next week is going to deal the real damage, this is just getting rid of songs on their way out anyway, like ‘Girls In The Hood’ by Megan Thee Stallion falling short, as did ‘Breaking Me’ by Topic & A7S, ‘Smile’ by Juice WRLD and The Weeknd, and ‘Dollaz On My Head’ by Gunna and Young Thug - hell, I’ll throw in the loss for ‘Ice Cream’ by BLACKPINK and Selena Gomez, but we all saw that coming. Now our losers are messier - off the debut we had the expected dropback for ‘Lonely’ by Justin Bieber and Benny Blanco to 27 and ‘You’re Mine Still’ by Yung Bleu ft. Drake to 89, and off the return ‘Whole Lotta Choppas’ by Sada Baby and Nicki Minaj imploded to 88. Then we had the losers continuing their trajectory as expected: ‘Un Dia’ by J Balvin, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny and Tainy to 94, ‘Runnin’ by 21 Savage and Metro Boomin at 61, and ‘Franchise’ by Travis Scott, Young Thug and M.I.A. at 51… but really, if we’re looking at our other losers, they’ve been failing in their own ways for a while. ‘Do It’ by Chloe x Halle at 95, ‘Greece’ by DJ Khaled at Drake at 91, ‘The Bigger Picture’ by Lil Baby at 82, I’d even include ‘Break My Heart’ by Dua Lipa at 44 looking to exit soon. Outside of that - and ‘Dreams’ by Fleetwood Mac which fell to 33 because a good meme is fading naturally - we have ‘Some Girls’ by Jameson Rodgers at 45; from what I can tell its radio hit a sharp peak and it’s getting rotated out fast, which isn’t surprising.

Then we have our returns and gains - hell, there’s more returns than gains this week, and I’m not inclined to get all that optimistic about them given what’s coming next week. I’m actually not about to complain about ‘Golden’ by Harry Styles being pushed as the next single to 74 - it’s wistful and has some decent groove, I can see this being a hit in a similar lane to ‘Circles’, and while ‘forget me too’ by Machine Gun Kelly and Halsey is back at 97 thanks to the video, it’ll need radio traction to really get going here, we’ll have to see. The bigger story is the minor Luke Combs album bomb, which got ‘Without You’ with Amanda Shires back on the charts at 78, and into our gains saw the expected considerable boost for ‘Better Together’ at 30. Hell, I’ll take that over ‘Champagne Night’ by Lady A somehow rising off the debut to 90, where in the Nine Hells did that come from?

Unfortunately, switching over to our new arrivals, we’re starting off a pretty big list with one big disappointment out of the gate…

100. ‘Wine, Beer, Whiskey’ by Little Big Town - at this point, Little Big Town should leave Capitol Nashville or fire their management, because this is goddamn inexcusable, and for pretty much all the same reasons as that Lady A song but worse. Moreover it makes no sense - the band is openly middle-aged and made an album catering to that sound with a timbre that is similar to Fleetwood Mac, in an era where old Fleetwood Mac are now charting… and you push this from Nightfall? It doesn’t even make sense when your biggest hit was a tasteful ballad in ‘Girl Crush’ and your last hit was ‘Better Man’, which was midtempo - this doesn’t even match up with what your analytics say you should do, especially when on the new excellent album, you have ‘Forever And A Night’ and ‘Sugar Coat’, and ‘Questions’… hell, even the title track would have worked here, what are you doing?! To me this screams of management woefully out of touch that thinks what Nashville wants is a clunky, badly mixed squonker full of ugly horns, some of the band’s sloppiest vocal harmonies, and the worst sort of drinking song references that think they’re more clever than they are but just give you a headache. Worst song on the album, on the list of the worst songs the band has ever made, the fact they pushed this as a single and have been working it for six months to only chart now… when this fails, Little Big Town should go elsewhere as soon as they can, find management that doesn’t have them making or pushing this.

99. ‘Head & Heart’ by Joel Corry & MNEK - hey, guess I made the right choice in not making this a World Hit, given that it would swing around and chart in the States anyway… which I do find a bit ironic, because I didn’t have much to say about it then and I don’t really now. I’ve always been fond of MNEK’s vocals, even as processed as they sound here, and the gentle house groove is generally likable, if a little formulaic in its burbling patter. But I do think the central conceit of the song feels a little underplayed for what it is - he gets stuck in his head, but his heart is driving him forward, you’d think there’d be a bit more exuberance or have the hook be more than just MNEK using onomatopoeia to mimic a heartbeat. I dunno, should be a bit better than it is, but it’s fine enough - likable, I’ll take it.

98. ‘La Toxica’ by Farruko - it’s funny, there’s a discord server I’m a part of that highlighted this might a breakthrough for Farruko, that it could well be the Latin crossover hit in the next year that people go nuts over. And as someone who is normally on the outside looking in at that, I was curious how this would play… and honestly, I kind of hear it? Farruko has a bit more squawking distinctive presence than many reggaeton acts, and while I think the synths feel a bit reserved behind the sharper kick of the percussion - especially after the delicate piano intro - I do like how the song is framed as ‘she just dumped this asshole, she’s going to go out and party and have fun’, and for once Farruko doesn’t center his desire to hook up with her, which lends it a bit more universality. I will say that airhorn-driven breakdown was certainly a choice and I can imagine it might go off a bit better live, but I will say it feels clunky the way it’s integrated into the mix, and not quite as natural or complimentary to the existing groove as they’re trying, especially as it doesn’t build to much outside of it. So… yeah, I don’t mind this either - a bit more memorable than most reggaeton I’ve heard recently, I’ll take it.

86. ‘Practice’ by DaBaby - I wish I understood what DaBaby’s plans are with regards to singles, because it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of logic to push another one from the deluxe reissue unless it’s just because of the video, and even that feels like a slow burn. But fine, here’s another single… and why was this not the main one being pushed? This kind reminds me of ‘TOES’ - bass-heavy, spare beat, just enough melody to move things before the trap snares come in, more about rolling into the groove - and DaBaby kind of nails this! For one that bass shudder feels competently mixed for once for a mix that’s cavernous, and while DaBaby is in his ordinary territory of flexing but still being street, this is one of the songs where he balances out his gleeful energy and his menace, and it’s legit kind of intimidating! Yeah, bragging about Billboard will always read as a little corny to me, for reasons I’ve ranted about for weeks, but DaBaby doesn’t make it sound bad, and for the most part he’s not wrong… and this is kind of great along the way. Nice.

84. ‘Cold As You’ by Luke Combs - so when I say Luke Combs got a minor album bomb off the deluxe reissue, I should stress that it’s small - only three new songs. But when you consider he’s a country act and they don’t get album bombs of any sort, it’s worth noting. So with this being his first new cut… well, first off, it’s not a cover of the Taylor Swift song from her self-titled album, but it operates in similar frustrated and jilted territory, except Luke Combs is going to get drunk and be miserable at a bar he paints with a lot of detail. And outside of that, there’s not a lot to say about it - it’s pretty basic by his standards and plainly going for a stomping country rock vibe with some organ and banjo fleshing out the mix to the point where I wondered if Joey Moi was producing, especially with that overproduced piece right before the final hook. Overall, it’ll work with the right audience, but it’s Luke Combs coasting and it doesn’t do a lot for me - next?

77. ‘So Done’ by Kid LAROI - I don’t know why seeing Kid LAROI on the charts irritates me as much as just seeing a posthumous cut from Juice WRLD, but it’s maybe because he can’t remotely sell any of the sourness that his mentor’s deeper timbre might snag. But I will say this is a pivot I did not expect for Kid LAROI… mostly because it feels like a desaturated cod-reggae tune with the upstroked guitars soaked in reverb where his nasal tone wallow between self-pity and sourness, all surrounded by fragmented chipmunk cooing. And though I don’t like this at all - mostly because his voice sounds like he’s recovering from a bad head cold and is doing the fakest possible reggae affection - I get the feeling this’ll be huge, because the hook is sticky and if this hits the crossover between emo rap, pop trap, and reggae… the most insufferable white boys you know will be blasting this, just watch.

76. ‘Back To The Streets’ by Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko - there’s a part of me that just enjoys how Jhene can step on the song of one of her peers and usually make it better - it happened with Kehlani this year, it’s happening with Saweetie here, and maybe it’ll all make up for ‘Pu$$y Fairy’ probably missing the year-end list, I’m thinking of the bigger picture here. And while ‘Change Your Life’ was playing for a love song, ‘Back To The Streets’ is both of them playing in the loose ‘going through guys’ mold that a lot of male rappers play in rotating through chicks. But it’s way more self-assured and relaxed from these two, with the gentler groove and keys that are slightly off-kilter - it actually allows Saweetie to not be as immediate and brash, which opens up a lane for her that I didn’t expect. Yes, Jhene sounds great here because she can pull this off in her sleep, but the balance and chemistry they have here is great as well, and even if the content won’t be for everyone, I can’t deny that it does what it’s designed to do and it shows acknowledgement of the flip - where they were previously treated as disposable and they can play that game as well, and probably better. So yeah, this is pretty good - it’s not quite a go-to for me, but if it came on, I wouldn’t mind.

70. ‘Damage’ by H.E.R. - another person for whom I wish I had some clue surrounding her rollout plan, because H.E.R. is tremendously talented and she’s scoring real hits now… so we’re going to capitalize on this momentum at some point, right? Especially she’s now sampling a 1987 R&B tune from Herb Alpert that had Janet Jackson and Lisa Keith on it - which was sampled fairly often in the 90s and especially with some of the keyboards flourishes you can tell H.E.R. is leaning into that vibe, as well as the processed trumpet and the distant, smoky feeling of the track, which fits the questioning risk of opening oneself to new love and hoping there’s something real there so that she doesn’t take damage. I do wish they had leaned a little less on the vocal production for H.E.R - there’s a pitched down backing vocal layered very closely and it doesn’t flatter her at all on the hook, especially as she already sounds fine in that register… but the song does have the feel of being a little overmixed, so I guess I’ll take it? Eh, I dunno - it’s good, it should be great.

69. ‘The Other Guy’ by Luke Combs - second Luke Combs song this week, and… yeah, okay, this is way more like it! Again, I have to highlight how Luke Combs’ two more underappreciated skills in country are his knack for slightly more detailed framing in his songs balanced by a sense of humble empathy, and both really come to the forefront here, where he meets an old flame at a bar and she’s flirting and he might even still have a spark for her… but his life is on the road and on a very different path, and the guy she’s left behind is still yearning for her, and he’s going to try to encourage a reconciliation. And I’ll admit that’s a different sort of dynamic, but it adds some complexity to the scene in a way like 'Marry Me’ by Thomas Rhett did, showing more maturity along the way. Now I will say it’s not as good as ‘Marry Me’, and I mostly put that up to the production - it’s the same template you normally hear from Luke Combs in terms of the rougher grooves and mainstream country rock elements, thankfully well-produced to balance out everything, but it doesn’t do anything more beyond a solo that’s basically perfunctory. Granted, you don’t go to a Luke Combs song for a big surprise, but this took a stretch in the writing I wish the production could back up a bit more. Very good song, likely even great as I can see this growing on me… I’m just not sure it’s there yet.

53. ‘Spicy’ by Ty Dolla $ign ft. Post Malone - anyone besides me paying attention to how much success Post Malone has built as a crossover guest artist, that for that Ty Dolla $ign album that really seemed to come and go, the only song that charted was with him on it? Just something to note, but okay, here it is… and it’s a bad sign that the song they want to remind us of in the verses is ‘Psycho’, one of his most underwhelming hits in his canon. Honestly, I was kind of done with this when we got the line ‘she my spicy lil mama, she let me bust her pinata’ against all the washed out guitars from Watt… but I’ll be honest, this feels like a leftover cut from 2018 and not a good one. In both cases, it seems like this girl leaves them hanging even despite them buying her stuff, but they play it like a depressing reality, which it may be but sure as hell isn’t attractive, especially as both men don’t sell it with much energy. I could also add the warped guitar sound really canned and the clicking trap beat sounds cheap as hell, and adds to the quiet industry theory that this Ty Dolla $ign album was a commercial concession that may not be the work of genius that’s been passed around label offices in recent memory - telling. Anyway, this ain’t good - next!

34. ‘Tyler Herro’ by Jack Harlow - okay, for the cross-section of my audience who are not NBA fans like me, some backstory: in the Eastern Conference the Miami Heat made a run to the finals buoyed on phenomenal coaching and the unquestionable dogged intensity of star player Jimmy Butler, but he had a solid supporting cast who knew their role and took LeBron James’ Lakers to six games… one of those being rookie player Tyler Herro, who is in his first year in the NBA, and who had one hell of a statement year. He also had some memetic moments so following in the tradition of Sheck Wes’ ‘Mo Bamba’, here we have Jack Harlow naming a song after Herro. And… here’s the thing, I didn’t mind ‘WHATS POPPIN’ before the remix, and I honestly think this might be better! It’s more a flex song for Harlow to describe his comeup, his newfound success, shout out his homies back home, and talk about future plans, where Tyler Herro might give Harlow a hand fixing his jumpshot. Again, there’s a smoothness and sense of detail to Harlow’s rapping that makes him more quotable and interesting than a lot of his peers - even if I think about him bringing five white boys to the party, but they’re not N’Sync is a pretty stupid brag, along with ‘these boys pussy and they PMSing’… but if anything it feels like a throwaway brag track with a single verse to capitalize on Tyler Herro’s name that has better production than most courtesy of a good groove and all those flutes. It’s hard to tell if this’ll stay a hit because Harlow’s biggest weakness is a lack of vocal personality, but for a moment, I don’t mind it’s here, that’s all.

2. ‘Forever After All’ by Luke Combs - and here we get the big one, the big love song that Luke Combs wrote his wife after they bought a house together - honestly, not at all surprised this sort of song was pushed, especially in the era of boyfriend country it’s an easy sell. But am I the only one who feels that focusing on assorted scattered details that don’t last rather than his own story kind of weakens the focus a bit? Either that or the beyond basic composition and melody - I could swear I’ve heard it so often in mainstream country and yes, even Luke Combs who built his on generalities can do better than this, especially with the production softening every edge. Now with that being said, I don’t think this is bad - Luke Combs has a formula and I can see this having enough homespun detail to work, that middle-of-the-road approach universalism is key to his appeal, especially here. Just for me… not really that interesting, that’s all.

1. ‘positions’ by Ariana Grande - I’m going to get into this more when I review positions in On The Pulse on my main channel, but there’s almost an alarmingly even-keeled nature to Ariana Grande’s new album - if it wasn’t generally good, I would call it coasting on good performance and slightly better production courtesy of the warmer acoustics splashing off the more prominent strings - I still think the percussion sounds kind of clipped and thin to blend all that well, but it wouldn’t be an Ariana Grande project without questionable production these days. I guess my larger question circles around her trying to flip into a more ‘submissive’ role on the song, where she’s trying to switch up positions and be more flexible to accommodate a partner… I mean, if it’s what she wants and she’s clearly enjoying it especially as her cooing has never sounded better, I’m not going to begrudge her that, and juxtaposed with the video is a nice balanced touch… but I’d struggle to say this is an Ariana Grande song that has a lot of distinctive character, especially as a lead-off single. Even if I didn’t like her singles - and on thank u, next there were a lot I didn’t like - they were at least distinctive and gave me something to talk about, whereas this feels effortless. And that will work for a lot of folks, but I said this a while back that I like the pop stars that seem like they’re trying a little too hard, or trying when they don’t have to, and this is pretty much not trying when she doesn’t have to… it’s still going to be good on an increased baseline of quality, but I wouldn’t call it great.

And that means we have an episode of Billboard BREAKDOWN that actually feels pretty solid across the board. Well, not entirely: ‘Wine, Beer, Whiskey’ by Little Big Town is running away with the worst of the week by a country mile, and I think Dishonourable Mention will go to ‘Spicy’ by Ty Dolla $ign and Post Malone… although if that Kid LAROI song gets bigger and more annoying, I can see it souring on me even further in record time, it’s just not there yet. But for the best of the week we have a real competition here… and screw it, I’m giving out a tie here: ‘Practice’ by DaBaby with ‘The Other Guy’ by Luke Combs, both are great songs for different reasons and it also allows me to sneak ‘Back To The Streets’ by Saweetie and Jhene Aiko as the Honourable Mention because that song is a vibe and a half. Next week… look, I’ll just see y’all on the other side, it’s going to be wild.