billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - november 6, 2021

…so the Billboard year is almost over. And in a bizarre way, despite it feeling very eventful, I’m still not sure how to feel about any of it. I’ll get into more of it when we have year-end lists, but contextualizing everything that happened across 2021 has felt strange and while we get another cooldown week in between album bombs, I think I’m going to need some time to sit with it all. Also, welcome back to everyone who missed last week’s episode - it’s going to remain in text form as I put it together while dealing with the channel hack and termination issues, but was linked on the community tab and is on my website, please go check it out!

Anyway, onto something that is far more stable, the top 10, where to the surprise of nobody ‘Easy On Me’ remains rock solid at #1 - the radio surge in unbelievable, dominance on streaming, and while sales position dipped a bit, that’s more because of a certain forced reactionary grift we’ll deal with later. It did remain comfortably ahead of ‘Stay’ by Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber at #2, though, which lags in every category except radio, and even that is wavering. Then there’s ‘Industry Baby’ by Lil Nas X and Jack Harlow at #3, mostly thanks to streaming and a radio run that just will not give up… which thankfully keeps it ahead of ‘Fancy Like’ by Walker Hayes at #4, which is consistently strong in every channel, although it looks like radio might be finally done with it. Then we have ‘Bad Habits’ by Ed Sheeran at #5, where despite the sales and radio dropping off I expect it to rebound slightly next week courtesy of the album bomb that’s coming, but it still held over ‘Way 2 Sexy’ by Drake ft. Future and Young Thug at #6, which still has a lot of streams even as it seems like the radio might be getting done with it - and that opens things up for ‘Shivers’ by Ed Sheeran at #7, also on the rise and will absolutely get a boost next week. Then we have ‘good 4 u’ by Olivia Rodrigo continuing to slide away at #8, and that brings us to a new arrival in the top ten: ‘Need To Know’ by Doja Cat at #9. This song has been decent enough on streaming for a while, but it’s really gotten a radio push as of recently and seems relatively stable, even if the sales aren’t there. But it was enough to push ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa to #10, which looks to be finally on its way out comfortably over a year into its run; I like the song still, but it’s time for something new here, I can admit that.

Now onto our losers and dropouts, and alongside the Young Thug album bomb, there were some big ones this week: ‘Yonaguni’ by Bad Bunny likely just clinching a spot, along with ‘Leave Before You Love Me’ by Marshmello and the Jonas Brothers, ‘deja vu’ by Olivia Rodrigo, and ‘Late At Night’ by Roddy Ricch absolutely getting in - oh and ‘You Time’ by Scotty McCreery and ‘Champagne Poetry’ by Drake falling well short. But we really didn’t have that many losers here: ‘Bubbly’ by Young Thug ft. Drake and Travis Scott fell off the debut to 45, as did ‘Pissed Me Off’ by Lil Durk at 62, and outside of that we had ‘WFM’ by RealestK hit 78 as whatever minor moment it had fades and ‘My Boy’ by Elvie Shane at 54 as it looks to be rotating out thanks to Nashville radio - also is going to wind up caught between years, kind of a shame.

Granted, in the aftermath of an album bomb we did have a decent number of returns and gains, in the latter category mostly confined to the bottom of the chart with ‘Ain’t Shit’ by Doja Cat at 97, ‘Life Goes On’ by Oliver Tree at 98, ‘Come Through’ by H.E.R. and Chris Brown back again at 99, and ‘Nevada’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again at 100 - with the Ed Sheeran album bomb coming, I wouldn’t expect any of these to last. But when we look to our gains… outside of ‘Better Days’ by NEIKED, Mae Muller and Polo G at 35 off the debut with big thanks to streaming, the rest of our gains are in country filling up the gaps. On the one hand, you got ‘Like A Lady’ by Lady A at 85 and ‘Whiskey And Rain’ by Michael Ray at 67, but on the other you have ‘One Mississippi’ by Kane Brown at 68 and ‘Till You Can’t’ by Cody Johnson riding continued gains to 65. Finally, there’s ‘Sand In My Boots’ by Morgan Wallen creeping up to 64 - again, that comeback is on the horizon and this will probably be a hit in 2022, just wait for it.

But in the meantime we’re going to stick with country for a bit talking about our new arrivals, starting with…

96. ‘To Be Loved By You’ by Parker McCollum - I guess I shouldn’t be as surprised as I am that Parker McCollum is getting a more accessible mainstream push - part of it is that I still remember his indie material from a while back and thus the new approach just hits an odd note. And that’s kind of the feeling I get with this, which in a strange way feels way more reminiscent of that older sound especially in its production: the guitars are more jagged, the live drums are a little underpowered, McCollum’s more nasal delivery feels harsher in comparison with the boyfriend country they were nudging him towards, and in comparison with the mostly upbeat melody, the content is way more sour. It’s basically McCollum getting pissed with his now-fiancee that she’s not giving him attention or showing love, when on the verses it kind of seems abundantly clear why she might be angry with him. It’s a song that seems to be setting up a twist or a moment on the bridge where they find reconciliation or just fall apart… but it just doesn’t happen, so the entire song feels exasperated without real payoff. I’m not even saying this is bad, it’s just weird and feels a bit incomplete… and hell, if more of this sound gets traction in the mainstream, I’m not going to complain.

90. ‘Money’ by Lisa - alright, round two of YG trying to get Lisa a proper breakthrough in the States with another full English-language cut… and why does this sound like a Fifth Harmony song from six years ago mixed with ‘DDU-DU DDU-DU’? Seriously, the spare horn loop, the clunky piano, the undercooked trap percussion, the pitch-shifting, Lisa’s more brash delivery and the focus on the emptiest of flexing, especially as the synth horns smash after the change-up where the old Blackpink comparisons become even more flagrant? It’s just really clunky and bereft of groove, and what surprises me is that it doesn’t even sound contemporary - is there really an audience that’ll go off for this outside of the Blackpink stans? I dunno, six years ago I would have hated this - and outside of the beat shift, this can get really annoying - but right now I’m just surprised this is the push that YG is putting behind Lisa for the American market, because I’m not sure at all this’ll work, even beyond myself.

89. ‘Half Of My Hometown’ by Kelsea Ballerini ft. Kenny Chesney - I posted my joy online with this song finally being pushed for Kelsea Ballerini, and I was so pleasantly surprised to see so many people in agreement! I’ve long had the impression that Kelsea Ballerini has never gotten the proper pop country push as a better writer than many will give credit, and with this getting released so late, it looks like my suspicion has been confirmed - but hey, it’s finally here, my favourite song from her self-titled album, and it’s a great one. The programmed percussion isn’t obtrusive and generally sounds good behind the lead interweaving acoustic lines, Kenny Chesney is a great support that adds some rootsy backing presence, but the real star of the show is the writing. This is Kelsea Ballerini looking at the divide that comes with small town life between those who fall in love with the culture and those are looking for so much more, and what I like is that she takes a wide angle lens to everyone - I love the references to sports especially in terms of how that brings community together, even as their lives might not have turned out the way they’ve planned, but she also highlights the quarterback that leaves for school and doesn’t come back, or how she herself had to leave to pursue her dreams, and how while there’ll be those who expect her to forget, she knows she won’t, and it leaves a lot of mixed feelings. It’s not defensive or a straight glorification because that’s not what these scenes ever are, where I had to check to see if Lori McKenna had a cowrite but she doesn’t. This is Kelsea Ballerini once again proving that she’s underrated, and this resides among her best songs. I loved this track when I first heard it midway through last year, highly recommended!

88. ‘Big Energy’ by Latto - you know, there was a part of me that cynically thought when Latto changed her name that would end her career - it would stink, given that I thought she had some real flair, but for a newer act breaking out, consumers are fickle. So I was pleasantly surprised to see this get traction seemingly without a real TikTok breakthrough… until I realized that Dr. Luke was replicating the Doja Cat formula with that weedy Tom Tom Club sample and the rollicking groove, relying Latto play the flexing Megan The Stallion role where I’m not sure she’s got the same swagger or charisma just yet, especially with flows that just feel a little sloppier. I guess that’s my frustration with this: it feels more angular and fidgety than most of the pop rap in this lane, leaning on the more staccato touches of 80s R&B and disco where unfortunately Latto isn’t a potent enough singer to make the big dick energy come through effectively. Overall, the groove is good, but this feels like a lesser version of better pop crossovers we’ve already gotten - not really impressed.

87. ‘Scorpio’ by Moneybagg Yo - and speaking of acts that feel like also-rans, Moneybagg Yo dropped the deluxe edition of that album from earlier this year where I’m still perplexed he had enough of an audience to get an album bomb. But he got two songs, with this being the first riding a very obvious DMX and Faith Evans sample for a slow jam playing in a similar vein as ‘Wockesha’, except this time with a more restrained even old school scratchy beat where it would seem like he could ride it more effectively. I say that even despite the weird pile-up of bars at the end of the first verse, but what’s interesting is the story Moneybagg Yo is trying to tell, focusing on a girl who’s got as much autonomy as he does who goes in and out of her life and he just can’t figure it out. I dunno, she seems like she’s been burned before and she’s not that interested in you, but more importantly, you describe sex as ‘violating’ her, have such fun lines as ‘when it’s soft, she get it rock’, and then instead of maybe asking what she might think or feel, you just write it off as ‘dealing with a Scorpio’. Look, my point of view with horoscopes is that they run on confirmation bias and folks believe what they want to believe, but here it just comes across as obtuse when it doesn’t need to be. Still, compared to most Moneybagg Yo tracks this isn’t bad, especially that sample… I’ll give this a pass.

79. ‘Poke It Out’ by Wale ft. J. Cole - I really shouldn’t get this sinking feeling whenever I see a new Wale song on the Hot 100 - I’ve never actively disliked the guy and he’s had moments that are generally fine, but it’s one of those cases where I’ve never really thought the execution lives up any hype he’s had, especially in certain industry circles which will probably guarantee this a radio run, especially with a J. Cole cosign. And… there’s a certain type of rap songs that are clearly trying to be cool and pick up women but you can tell the framing will go over way more with the bros - Tyga makes a lot of music like this, and both J. Cole and Wale have too many of these types of songs in their catalog, and this is one I just don’t like. For one, it reeks of insecurity - it’s not a good look for Wale to complain that since he’s become a star people don’t love him, especially right before asking women stick and poke their asses out - and his verse has that same sort of weirdly clumsy pickup move where he tries to get the girl to turn it around, in both actually turning around and coming back from getting implants and quarantine! And J. Cole… it’s less of a flex than you think it is to drop the beat and say all your hoes miss you, especially when you crib a pants line from Ludacris ten years ago, compare a girl to a shiny Moncler jacket, and compare yourself to a landmire! The larger issue is that the bassy old school production from Cool & Dre sets up a more playful vibe, but both Wale and Cole come across as more pushy; as someone who isn’t particularly smooth and doesn’t have much game, it shouldn’t immediately make me think ‘nope, this won’t work at all’. So yeah, really don’t care for this one - way to waste great production from Cool & Dre, but no, this isn’t good.

69. ‘Switches & Dracs’ by Moneybagg Yo ft. Lil Durk & EST Gee - I’m not surprised this is the other song we got from the deluxe - Lil Durk is the sort of cosign that guarantees a hit these days - and to their credit, like with last week I think this turns out pretty good. Both Moneybagg Yo and EST Gee actually lock in with their flows for the sort of gunplay that both of them are pretty credible at selling in terms of visceral gangland detail, but this feels more like a Lil Durk song overall, as he has both the opening verse and the hook opposite the creeping synths, piano touches, and more textured trap groove. That said, it feels shorter than it should - not ending with a hook feels like a missed opportunity, and Durk’s verse feels shorter than it should. So… okay, this isn’t bad either, but again, I’m not sure what Moneybagg Yo brings to the table that’s enough for me to really care - not bad, but I probably won’t remember it.

61. ‘Not In The Mood’ by Lil Tjay, Fivio Foreign & Kay Flock - full disclosure, I had no idea what to expect with this - I was on the fence with Lil Tjay all year, I’ve yet to be properly blown away by Fivio Foreign and I include that verse with Kanye, and Kay Flock I didn’t recognize… so colour me shocked just how well this went off! For one the drill production is great here - the bells and piano build the stuttering menace effectively into Lil Tjay’s striking hook that explodes with the touches of flutes off the bass rumble, and while I’d say the vocals are mixed a little low outside of the hook, nobody embarrassed themselves here, with Fivio Foreign sounding on-point, Kay Flock feeling a bit sloppier but pretty visceral, and Lil Tjay… outside of that line that he’s got people sucking on him like they’re gay, his knack for melody keeps this distinctive, if a little basic and not quite having the detail to elevate it. But honestly, on production alone I like this a lot, and for someone who has been on the fence with a lot of drill, this was a great surprise.

(not posting the video mirrors I’ve found for obvious reasons)

28. ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ by Bryson Gray ft. Tyson James & Chandler Crump - I’m legit happy that the last episode was just kept to text… because the less I have to acknowledge this stupid saying passing itself off as protest, the better. Like last time I looked up all of these guys, and to their credit they come across as more established in this niche of reactionary rap music than Lozo Alexander did for his grift - both Bryson Gray and Tyson James are established in the Christian rap scene across the past few years which unsurprisingly opens the door for conservative-leaning content, whereas Chandler Crump comes across as a shitposter with a lot less credits hopping onboard. It actually set off some real controversy because the video got taken down for anti-vax propaganda and saying the pandemic isn’t real while framing it as ‘just asking questions’ or being euphemistic - that’s why I’m not actually not going to play or show any of it, my channels have been compromised enough and these guys seem like the sort to be disingenuous, especially citing Kyrie Irving and Nicki Minaj as your sources and along the way spouting off QAnon talking points about Biden as a pedo and talking about taking someone out back to play ‘smear the queer’. The one point they try to make stick is the Taliban retaking Afghanistan, but somehow I feel the complexities of that situation are lost on this trio… as are a lot of things, like production that doesn’t feel so canned and sterile, or flows that can maintain any type of momentum. That’s the odd thing, both Gray and James simplify their flows for the verses and it comes across so amateurish especially off a hook that has a little more punch, whereas Crump actually has a flow but it doesn’t feel like it adds to much more. I dunno, there’s a weird, conspiratorial petulance to this where I’m actually thinking they might have bought in fully, especially given how many years they’ve sunk into it - but I also don’t think any of them are distinctive or interesting enough as a presence to make it outside of this lane of bad propaganda. I can laugh at Tom McDonald, but this is just tasteless and shitty in the least interesting way possible - next!

27. ‘Moth To A Flame’ by Swedish House Mafia & The Weeknd - I mean, I’ve known for years that The Weeknd has a fondness for electronic music, so him hopping onto one of the singles for Swedish House Mafia’s big comeback push makes all the sense in the world. But what often goes overlooked is how mixed the results have been - I’ve seen some folks compare this to ‘Lost In The Fire’ with Gesaffelstein, and sadly that’s pretty apt with the reverbed keys, muted strumming, pulsating padded house beat, and the odd feeling that it’s a little more compressed around the vocal leads than it should be. More distracting is how it doesn’t really seem to build to the sort of dramatic crescendo that made the best Swedish House Mafia songs even as they try to ramp up the keys, mostly because The Weeknd never ramps up any bombast in his delivery to match it. I guess the simmer is part of the point, given that The Weeknd is trying to play the seducer role to lure this girl away from the guy she’s currently with, but the atmosphere never quite nails the menace or sense of potential danger. The groove is okay, but this doesn’t strike me as having much in the way of legs, especially in comparison with some of the darker and more interesting house tracks we did get in 2021 - not bad, per se, but not good either.

But that was our week, and the best and worst fall out remarkably fast! For the worst… yeah, ‘Let’s Go Brandon’, it’s bad propaganda that gives me no incentive to really care to listen to it again, with Dishonourable Mention going to Wale and J. Cole for ‘Poke It Out’ - there’s just a vibe with that song I just do not like, and watch it become a hit. Now the best of the week is actually competitive beyond ‘half of my hometown’ by Kelsea Ballerini and Kenny Chesney getting the top spot… and I think I’m going to go with ‘Not In The Mood’ by Lil Tjay, Fivio Foreign and Kay Flock, pretty much on production and a hook I’m shocked I like this much! Next week, though… last week of the Billboard year, and the end of this season of Billboard BREAKDOWN, so stay tuned!