billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - november 26, 2022

This sort of week always amuses me - right after a massive album bomb… and there’s very little to replace it, not even big singles to crash through. Following what will probably be one of the biggest weeks of this new Billboard year we’ve got one that feels like it’ll be one of the slowest - I’m not complaining, but it is interesting to note how positions fall out.

And nowhere is that more apparent than in our top ten, where for another week ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift held the #1, and it’s interesting to identify the source of the staying power: sales were still good but the margin was thinner, she rebounded on streaming, and she’s got solid, cross-format radio support. Compare this to the main challenger ‘Rich Flex’ by Drake and 21 Savage - it’s winning on streaming, but radio has been extremely slow to pick it up, and heading into the holiday season it’s going to be a tougher sell to build momentum. Compare this to ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras rebounding to #3, mostly because it has picked up massive radio and a shocking amount of streaming and sales as well - it’s going to remain a contender, for at least the next few weeks. Similar case for ‘Bad Habit’ by Steve Lacy, where it might have hit a radio peak but it’s got enough streaming inertia to at least stick around, which is analogous to ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles but with radio seeming to fade much faster. Then we have another Drake and 21 Savage song with ‘Major Distribution’ at #6 thanks to streaming, we have a song I did not want to see break the top 10: ‘I’m Good (Blue)’ by David Guetta and Bebe Rexha. And I hate to say it, but it’s got traction in all channels, as much as it’s a shallow, empty cut appropriating a dated meme, the name recognition and that hook is going to get it moving. Speaking of name recognition, rebounding to #8 is ‘Lift Me Up’ by Rihanna, which has the benefit of radio and sales getting behind her even if streaming seems to be somewhat lukewarm, which is kind of interesting. Finally bringing up the rear we have two more songs from 21 Savage and Drake, ‘Spin Bout U’ at #9 and ‘On BS’ at #10 - if there’s one benefit to the coming onslaught of Christmas music, it’ll be getting rid of this.

But before we get to some of that, losers and dropouts, and there’s a few in the latter category, with ‘5 Foot 9’ by Tyler Hubbard making its expected exit along with ‘Staying Alive’ by DJ Khaled, Drake and Lil Baby and ‘2 Be Loved (Am I Ready)’ by Lizzo both seeming to underperform. But that’s not a ton of losses, so when we cut to the losers, the majority are from album bombs that have just stuck around. So starting with Drake and 21 Savage: ‘Privileged Rappers’ at 22, ‘BackOutsideBoyz’ at 26, ‘Broke Boys’ at 34, ‘Hours In Silence’ at 37, ‘Jumbotron Shit Poppin’ at 52, ‘Treacherous Twins’ at 58, ‘Middle of the Ocean’ at 67, ‘More M’s’ at 69, ‘I Guess It’s Fuck Me’ at 81, and ‘3AM On Glenwood’ at 95. Then from Taylor Swift we have ‘Vigilante Shit’ at 62 and ‘Bigger Than The Whole Sky’ at 100 - her stuff has had a remarkable amount of staying power here - and outside of those, ‘Die For You’ by Joji fell off the debut at 72, and ‘Wishful Drinking’ by Ingrid Andress and Sam Hunt slid to 88, it’s on its way out.

Now when we cut to our returns and gains… I have to be honest, there’s not a lot of clarity in terms of what’s getting traction right now. Outside of the top ten entries I’ve already talked about, we’ve got some jumps off losses for ‘Super Freaky Girl’ by Nicki Minaj to 11, ‘You Proof’ and ‘Wasted On You’ by Morgan Wallen to 13 and 23 respectively, Vegas’ by Doja Cat to 18, ‘Tomorrow 2’ by Glorilla and Cardi B to 29, ‘Wait For U’ by Future, Tems and Drake to 30, ‘She Had Me At Heads Carolina’ by Cole Swindell at 31, ‘Titi Me Pregunto’ by Bad Bunny at 32, and ‘About Damn Time’ by Lizzo at 38, but the majority of these already had palpable mainstream traction; the one exception seems to be ‘Golden Hour’ by JVKE, but he’s now picking up radio and I get the impression this’ll survive the Christmas glut. What I’m more interested in are the songs that didn’t drop but are now picking up traction: ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd in particular spiked to 12, as did ‘Under The Influence’ by Chris Brown to 17, ‘CUFF IT’ by Beyonce to 20, ‘Country On’ by Luke Bryan rose to 85, and ‘Wait In the Truck’ by HARDY and Lainey Wilson spiked to 51. But I have to say, I’m a little shocked ‘Made You Look’ by Meghan Trainor is holding steady up to 40, especially as her sales are really strong along with streaming. But the real coming story is in our returns, because outside of ‘Forget Me’ by Lewis Capaldi sliding back at 98, the holiday season is coming and that means some expected returns: ‘Holly Jolly Christmas’ by Bobby Helms at 50, ‘Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree’ by Brenda Lee at 41, and ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’ by Mariah Carey at 25. It feels like it’s starting earlier every year, we’ve been through this many times, let’s just weather the storm.

But this week, we only have three new songs. This would normally be where I’d tack on a world hit or something from the Canadian charts, but given that I’m in something of a time crunch with main channel work, let’s keep this relatively short and start with…

99. ‘Going, Going, Gone’ by Luke Combs - one thing I’m confident giving Luke Combs credit for is having shockingly good impulses when it comes to picking late album singles, mostly because he goes for some of the better written, melancholic deep cuts that the fans know and might love. So I was thrilled to see him push this, a pretty spare organic acoustic cut with a bit of shuffling percussion where he’s musing on a relationship that was never built to last and she’s on the winds - nice little Garth Brooks reference there on the second verse. And I like how ramshackle and small-stakes it feels - there’s no bitterness or anger here, just a wistful resignation - yeah, the list-driven songwriting can feel cliche, but Combs’ details feel more pointed to the scene, so it doesn’t bother me as much here. So yeah, simple formula, but man, he nails it - great song that’s been on my personal playlists all year, check it out!

91. ‘Break My Heart’ by Rod Wave - am I the only one a little surprised that Rod Wave’s seemingly surprise EP isn’t getting the same level of attention? I mean, even though I’ve had my criticisms of him this year, I still checked this out and might just review it, and with this song… I wouldn’t call it my favourite from the project, but it’s definitely one of the better singles he’s put out this year. The bass and whirring percussion is better balanced against the gentle guitars and very liberal use of the Sam Smith sample, and while the song still feels a little lacking in structure, I do think the conceit behind it is better, focusing on the betrayals that really get under his skin from both women and men, especially other artists who are faking the pain for traffic or to slip into his lane. And he’s not even angry so much as sad and exhausted at dealing with it, and Rod Wave sells that well. So yeah, this is damn good too!

86. ‘Heart Like A Truck’ by Lainey Wilson - And speaking of songs from recent projects, Lainey Wilson’s newest album seems to be slipping under the radar of folks - I’ve heard it, I may cover it if I have time, it was generally fine, and this is one of the singles that was pushed back last May. And… no, it’s not bad, but it does feel clunkier than it should be. The guitars, organ, and drums create a nice sense of warmth, even bringing in some strings, but between the electric guitar squealing and how much Wilson’s belting feels nestled midway back into the back where she’s competing with it all especially on the chorus, it leaves me thinking Jay Joyce didn’t really position her properly - she’s got a voice like Reba, place it properly! But then there’s that central simile… it’s not bad per se, in that she’s been through it and pursues romance with a full throttle and even though she’s taken a beating it’s worth giving her a chance if you can handle it, but the central line ‘I’ve got a heart like a truck’ feels so blocky and leaden, it doesn’t flow well within the poetry, it kind of drives all over a good idea! Again, I don’t think this is bad, but it feels a little overmanaged, a good idea fleshed out but probably needed a fine-tuning at its core to really get going.

And unfortunately, it is the worst song of this week - the vast majority of weeks that would not be the case, but here it is. Best of the week is ‘Going, Going, Gone’ by Luke Combs - pretty obvious pick there for me, it’s excellent. Next week… I’m not seeing the major disruptor beyond more holiday music, so stay tuned for that…