billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - november 25, 2023
…I think this is the closest thing to an ordinary week we’ve had for the Hot 100 in some time… and probably will be for the next month or more, because while it was a relatively stable week in terms of new arrivals and gains, the holiday music is already encroaching and will be overwhelming any new release… joy to the world, or something.
Anyway, our top ten for now, where even in late November ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift has a grip on #1… albeit a shaky one, pretty much just sustained on the collapsing radio margin and just enough streaming, and given the charts are near their weakest point right now, that’s a bad sign for any longevity… which might explain that coming in for #2 we have ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow with frankly ridiculous streaming and already a radio push. Now I’m frankly shocked that society at large decided to give Jack Harlow another shot - do folks remember that he put out a rap album this year that dominated discourse for about a week before sinking completely - but again, we’ll get into this later on. It was enough to leapfrog ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat at #3, where she also had a rough week on the radio and lost streaming so she couldn’t make up the gap. Then there’s ‘Snooze’ by SZA at #4 - also very much on the radio decline but streaming actually propped up the losses, which allowed her to hold over ‘Is It Over Now?’ by Taylor Swift at #5, which still has a lot of streams and is getting a radio run of its own, which for a vault track really caught me offguard! Then we have ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves very stable at #6 - again, the radio isn’t touching this, the streaming is just that good, you’d think the stubborn idiots doing programming would capitalize on a good thing here, but I guess they’re still occupied with ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs at #7, which is now very much on the decline. This opens up a hole for another new top ten entry: ‘Greedy’ by Tate McRae at #8, and I’ll give her credit that the radio and streaming seems to be behind this…. at the worst possible time to try and make a run in the holiday season with dubious starpower! I’ll at least take her bad Nelly Furtado impression over the last two, which is Morgan Wallen switching places with himself with ‘Last Night’ at #9 - consistent streaming will do that - and ‘Thinkin Bout Me’ at #10 which is now firmly on the downswing.
This takes us neatly to our losers and dropouts and we actually have a few notable ones this week, with ‘Watermelon Moonshine’ by Lainey Wilson and ‘Lady Gaga’ by Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H - I believe both of these clinch year-end spots for 2023, but since Billboard decided to ditch a sane tracking week for the benefit of their event planners for the Billboard Music Awards, which again, nobody cares about, the predictions are a little muddy at this time. Anyway, the losers are predominantly from Taylor Swift again: ‘Now That We Don’t Talk’ at 33, ‘Slut!’ at 49, ‘Say Don’t Go’ at 53, ‘Style’ at 69, ‘Bad Blood’ at 80, ‘Out Of The Woods’ at 85, ‘Wildest Dreams’ at 86, ‘Suburban Legends’ at 92, and ‘Blank Space’ at 93. Then we have some other residual album impact fading, like for Jungkook with ‘Standing Next To You’ at 50 off the debut, ‘3D’ with Jack Harlow at 84, and ‘Seven’ with Latto at 91. Then we had Olivia Rodrigo have a rough week with ‘bad idea, right?’ at 54 - looks like this is going to get caught between years, thanks Billboard - and ‘Can’t Catch Me Now’ falling off the debut 81. Finally… ‘Cobra’ by Megan Thee Stallion took a steep hit to 63 off the debut, ‘Perro Negro’ by Bad Bunny and Feid hit 67, ‘Single Soon’ by Selena Gomez has just never caught on at 77, and ‘Now And Then’ by The Beatles crashed to 76 - I’m surprised I did not get that much backlash to my dislike of the song, but hey, no drama, can’t complain here!
Meanwhile, in our returns and gains we have two stories, the first being in returns with the holiday music back in earnest: ‘A Holly Jolly Christmas’ by Burl Ives at 44, ‘Jingle Bell Rock’ by Bobby Helms at 38, ‘Last Christmas’ by Wham! at 32, and ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’ by Mariah Carey back yet again at 17. The flipside to this story is what will have any chance of competing, and outside of ‘Too Much’ by Kid LAROI, Jungkook, and Central Cee getting something close to a radio push at 66, the story will be country music here. Unfortunately, that’s largely bad news: when ‘Everything I Love’ by Morgan Wallen is one of the better ones at 59, it’s a bad sign as we have ‘TRUCK BED’ by HARDY at 64, ‘Standing Room Only’ by Tim McGraw at 60, and ‘Can’t Have Mine’ by Dylan Scott at 57. Thank god ‘White Horse’ by Chris Stapleton surged to 12 off the album boost - thank god it’s at least going to have a shot at 2024’s year-end list, but it also looks to be caught between years thanks to Billboard being stupid, thanks again for that!
Anyway, we have a reasonable list of new arrivals here, so let’s start off with…
100. ‘Soak City (Do It)’ by 310babii - …okay, I got nothing. This is an artist I’ve never heard of before - he’s based in L.A. and somehow got on a Mustard beat with a big remix featuring Tyga and Blueface - ugh - while having an album I saw zero buzz around back from last June, but apparently this went viral on TikTok. And… okay, imagine someone with DaBaby’s vocal tone but having less energy and talent that can barely stay on beat alongside a piano line desperately trying to make up for how clumsy the bass and percussion mixing is and all the clunky shifts trying to compensate for bad rapping. It almost makes up for how 310babii describes sex with him like a waterpark in perhaps the least interesting way possible, it’s actually a little startling how his non-charisma cuts through here because he doesn’t remotely make his crude sex bars appealing or even funny. So yeah, this just sucks in a not particularly interesting way, next!
99. ‘Better Than Ever’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again & Rod Wave - it’s probably bad that the first thing I thought with this song title for these artists was ‘yeah, don’t believe that for a second’, but hey, it’s a collaboration that makes sense for the newest YoungBoy project that’s not getting the same attention. So it already starts on a weird note that Rod Wave is only contributing a verse and not the hook, which YoungBoy is attempting to croon over - this is poor use of Rod Wave out of the gate - and when the song finally gets to his verse, he’s just a much better fit with the hazy vocals and pianos around the trap groove, he’s just got a better command of that soulful presence. As for the content… a lot of formless complaining about women despite all the success that comes with flexing and doing drugs and finally being a bit more stable, which feels a bit more credible from Rod Wave but is hard to buy with YoungBoy. Honestly, while the paranoia and angst has been trimmed back, this is very much to the formula for both acts, and it’s not special - not bad, not great either.
97. ‘Different Round Here’ by Riley Green ft. Luke Combs - god, I wish when I saw song titles like this it wouldn’t raise my suspicions - thanks a lot, Jason Aldean - but Riley Green and Luke Combs both have good instincts on a straightforward ode to small towns… albeit it’s distinctly weird that we’re getting it from this remix of a song from 2019 that dropped six months ago! And the original song is… fine, I guess - broadly sketched, leaning on a lot of military sloganeering, the production is pretty organic outside of some tinkling elements that feel louder than they should in the mix, so it caught me offguard how the remix feels rougher to amplify more of that twang but the guitar tones and drums wind up muddier as a result, and somehow that piercing tinkling tone still cuts through! Outside of that… Luke Combs is a better singer than Riley Green and he brings a warmer presence to the song, but with the production taking a step back, I can’t call this all that interesting or good, and I expected more of both here.
95. ‘Smurk Carter’ by Lil Durk - so a little context with this: this is a cut from Lil Durk’s posse Only The Family’s collab tape that dropped recently, and since he’s the bigger name, this is the crossover single similar to how ‘Hellcats & Trackhawks’ broke through in 2021, where from the album art to some of the production it’s trying to be an homage to Lil Wayne - that has to be the only reason why those painfully underweight synths that belong left in 2008 wound up here behind an otherwise pretty solid trap groove and liquid organ. Shame because there is something to this content - the song opens with a codefendant of Lil Durk’s father who got sent to jail for decades and was only somewhat recently released as sentencing laws changed, and Durk is reflecting on how easy it would have been to fall into the same trap chasing that money and selling drugs, especially now making music about that life. I think the song kind of loses its way in the second verse where he talks about sex - he’s not good at it - and ditching the girl who was literally paying his rent, but outside of that… again, I’ve heard Lil Durk in this territory a lot before and while the gunplay has been turned down, I think I might have preferred if he went even further on the Lil Wayne homage with more bars - as it is, it’s just okay.
90. ‘LALALALA’ by Stray Kids - well, this was only a matter of time. For those of you who don’t know, Stray Kids are one of the other larger k-pop acts that have been looking to crossover to the US market and fill the gap that BTS left for the time, with their Korean and Japanese albums and EPs moving units the past few years but their album 5-Star this year being their proper stateside breakthrough through a deal with Republic. This translates to their newest EP Rock-Star which spawned this song. And what you’ll notice is that this is a group that leans on a more bombastic, forceful tone with the bombastic percussion jumping between trap and rap rock, and the harsher vocals even including their singers, who have a gruffer, louder presence. Honestly, in attitude they remind me more of BLACKPINK - sharper and more grating synth choices, a bit of a compressed genre pileup when it comes to their hip-hop elements trying to ramp up for a big hook, and lyrics that feel kind of underwhelming outside of just giving into the “rock” bombast that could really afford to let those electric guitars erupt or have any texture. That’s probably my biggest issue, for as many ideas as they’re cramming in, there’s a lack of crescendo and bombast that can pay it off, which leads to the song feeling high energy and loud but lacking impact - they’ve got charisma and I like the presence, but… ehh, I’m not sold, at least not yet.
37. ‘Northern Attitude’ by Noah Kahan & Hozier - I don’t want to go off on my conspiracy theory again that ever since I gave a middling at best review to Stick Season that Noah Kahan has been using his expected starpower to force himself into my good graces - it’s more likely he’s just collaborating with a lot of folks we both happen to like, my taste is not that unique here. But after touring with Ruston Kelly and having collabs with Post Malone, Zach Bryan, Lizzy McAlpine, and Kacey Musgraves, he’s now got a remix with Hozier of ‘Northern Attitude’, a song I originally neither liked nor disliked enough to mention at the time. Kind of a shame because the anthemic acoustics ramping into that hook are impressive, and Hozier stepping in to sing the second verse and provide background for the hook is a natural step - he basically blows Noah Kahan out of the water here, to the surprise of nobody. But it’s always the content that has irked me about this one - he runs into a past lover who is a little more settled in their life, seems to be making a pass at her but then deflects from it because it’s his ‘northern attitude, he was raised on little light’ - dude, you’re from Vermont, speaking as a Canadian who grew up in the midwest, get over yourself, and now that you have someone from Ireland on the song it’s fucking laughable. And the second verse always annoyed me too, because he’s either talking to her and remarking on how her life is stale and will inevitably collapse and end, or more likely he’s being self-deprecating to a frankly ridiculous degree, and thank God Hozier is here and has at least some of the gravitas to pull that off. Easily the weakest remix thus far, and while I appreciate Noah Kahan lending his platform to far better artists, his choice of material is starting to get thin, all I’m saying.
11. ‘Houdini’ by Dua Lipa - I dunno about you, but when I started hearing that Dua Lipa was starting a fresh album cycle, I was legit excited - I don’t even love her albums that much since I’ve covered her in the mid-2010s, but given how shaky mainstream pop has been, I had expectations she’d at least nab some strong hits… and thank god, it’s legit! Granted, the names that are important to recognize here are Kevin Parker of Tame Impala fame and Danny L Harle most known for his association with PC Music, which is probably how they got that filthy bassline around the ramping percussion and tight 80s analog synth gloss before we get the flattened snarl of the guitar on the outro; sure, it’s a deliberate throwback to 80s pop, but we’ve slipped away from nu disco to something with a bit more of an edge, a very welcome shift! And of course Dua Lipa can command this - if anything she’s grown steadily into a subtly more expressive vocalist especially with the whispery backing vocals here, where some of the inflections almost remind me a bit of Blondie - and I love that she’s leaning into the effortless tease and flirtatious nature of the song. And while I might need another dozen listens to see if I can put this among my absolute favourites from her - I’m not sure it’s got the intensity of a ‘Physical’ or spellbinding hook of ‘Love Again’ - this is probably one of her best produced songs to date and it kicks a lot of ass. Great track, for the love of god make this a hit!
2. ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow - I should not be surprised that Jack Harlow is getting another shot with a major industry push, said industry spent way too much money on making him a thing to let him flame out, ergo we have this which is set up to compete with Taylor Swift next week for the top spot. And… okay, I know I was in the minority among critics who liked ‘First Class’ despite its flaws, I thought it was smooth and the sample flip worked better than it should have. Whereas this song seems to be very obviously trying to play the same formula as ‘First Class’ and I think it’s a lot worse: I actually don’t mind the original Cadillac Dale song ‘Whatever (Bass Soliloquy)’, a pretty solid R&B cut from the mid-90s, which they’ve sped up and really overused throughout the whole song to drive the sharper bass groove and clattering old-school percussion, but man, any sense of cool around Jack Harlow has evaporated with this: openly bragging about being vanilla in bed is something that happens in country songs, not here! And who decided ‘spelling things’ should be his gimmick for both of his verses, the first being a flagrant riff on Drake’s slang - which reminds me of ‘Churchill Downs’ where Drake washed his ass - and the second having him trying to be player alongside a Shrek reference; even done ironically for the meme he’s woefully out of date! It’s honestly trying too hard to pick up the formula from ‘First Class’, and the flopsweat is the worst possible contrast to how much of a cool player Jack Harlow is trying to be; it’s so much worse than feeling phony, it’s manufactured. And yes, I know a lot of folks probably saw all of this with his 2022 album and I’m just catching up, but even with the obvious industry machinations there was just enough to keep up the veneer, and that’s gone now. Yes, the groove is decent… but man, I had an aggressively negative reaction to this, and it really sucks.
So yeah, I’m a little shocked to do this, as I think it’s more obviously competent, but coming out of our week ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow is going to get the worst of the week over the Dishonourable Mention ‘Soak City (Do It)’ by 310babii - I’ve always said disappointment will make this worse, and my god, he should fire whoever told him this was a good idea into the fucking sun. Best of the week… not a great week here so ‘Houdini’ by Dua Lipa is running away with it, and I guess ‘Northern Attitude’ by Noah Kahan and Hozier is getting the Honourable Mention on Hozier’s performance alone! Next week… I’m not looking forward to ‘Lovin On Me’ becoming a hit, this could be bad, so stay tuned….