billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - may 6, 2023

Oh, what is this? A somewhat reasonable week on the Hot 100 for me to work with? I mean, I’m not gonna complain - even if some of our scant list of new arrivals look pretty damn rough - but hey, the last time I caught a break here was back in March, I’ll take what I can get!

Unfortunately, that means we have to start with the top ten, and that starts with the return of ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen to the #1. Make no mistake, this was a win on his streaming and sales margins… but it’s also not that surprising, unfortunately, as he’s continued to get airplay and SZA’s ‘Kill Bill’ was expected to get a considerable drop-off on sales after the discount faded and her radio peaked. That keeps ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #3, where despite streaming being stable, the radio has clearly peaked as well and I would predict it slipping into a downswing… and that opens a huge door for ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma up to #4 - the streaming and YouTube are ridiculous, and at these volumes, I’m not sure they’re going to need much more here! What I’d put money on perhaps overtaking it is ‘Un x100to’ by Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny breaking into the top 10 at #5 - streaming is up big, especially on YouTube, and Bad Bunny is big enough to break this onto the radio, if very slowly! Speaking of radio, ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez is up to #6 as it works to close the airplay gap as it saw increases in other channels, and that was enough to overtake ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd at #7, which still has radio growth but has thoroughly stalled out elsewhere. Then holding steady we have ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd and Ariana Grande at #8 - it’s now in radio freefall - ‘Boy’s A Liar Pt. 2’ by PinkPantheress and Ice Spice up to #9 on good radio gains but perhaps too late to matter, and ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift creeping back into the top 10 basically on inertia and a good radio week, it happens.

This takes us neatly to our losers and dropouts, where in the latter category… well, the big one is ‘Heart Like A Truck’ by Lainey Wilson clinching its year-end list spot, and then we have a string of songs falling short, with ‘Bzrp Music Sessions, Volume 53’ with Bizarrap and Shakira falling just short, and ‘Special’ by Lizzo and SZA and ‘Love Again’ by Kid LAROI just not getting close - odd, I thought they both had more runway. The losers are a bit more scattered if predictable - the remnants of Morgan Wallen’s album bomb falling away with ‘Everything I Love’ at 74 and ‘Sunrise’ at 94, ‘Princess Diana’ by Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj falling off the debut to 29, and the expected continued downswing for ‘Fight The Feeling’ by Rod Wave at 65, ‘Like Crazy’ by Jimin at 97, and ‘All Of The Girls You Loved Before’ by Taylor Swift at 98. Hell, Taylor didn’t exactly have a great week with ‘Lavender Haze’ sliding to 35 - it’s got its year-end spot in the bag, it’s fine - and then ‘wait in the truck’ by HARDY and Lainey Wilson looks to be on its expected way out too at 44, also having locked up position. What probably wont have it is ‘Never Felt So Alone’ by Labrinth at 85 - again, I don’t really see this being a thing, Labrinth has never really clicked for me and this song is no exception.

So let’s swing over to our returns and gains, and in the former group… it’s hard to complain: ‘Moonlight’ by Kali Uchis at 93, ‘You Didn’t’ by Brett Young at 95, both of these songs are at least good, but I am a bit disappointed by ‘Karma’ by Taylor Swift being pushed as the next single at 75. I’m not surprised by it - it’s probably one of the most memetic on the album, it makes sense for the single, but I personally think it’s one of the weaker cuts on the album, ‘Maroon’ was right there. Now the gains… I’m happy that ‘See You Again’ by Tyler, The Creator is on the upswing from the debut at 52 - it kind of offsets ‘I Need A Favor’ by Jelly Roll getting a boost to 60 especially as the radio is behind it - but again, the story here is regional Mexican music, a lot of it rising off the debut. I already mentioned Bad Bunny and Grupo Frontera, but we also saw ‘Di Que Si’ by Grupo Frontera and Grupo Marca Registrada at 89, ‘Igualito a Mi Apa’ by Fuerza Regida and Peso Pluma at 80, and most depressingly, ‘Chanel’ by Becky G and Peso Pluma at 56 - again, I’m not surprised by this, just disappointed.

But now onto a refreshingly scant list of new arrivals - let’s get it started with…

100. ‘Big Truck’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - …I mean, I called this. It felt like this was the big shot that YoungBoy needed to not just sustain chart relevance, but prove he wasn’t overexposed and that his labels and promotion team knew what they were doing. But following consistent album bombs, the fact we’re only getting one song at the very bottom of the Hot 100, the first song on the album, is very telling to me. But before we get to any finger-pointing, let’s check out the song… and I’ll say this, I like the piano loop that drives the song, even if the grainy snares and hi-hats can’t match a relatively solid bass beat. But this is one of those songs that desperately needed YoungBoy to differentiate his flows or add something to the production to ramp up the hook, because otherwise this runs together fast with the same paranoid gunplay as usual only made somewhat amusing that YoungBoy called himself the ‘big truck’. Look, I’ve heard worse from him - the tune is solid, I’d call this passable - but man, how the mighty have fallen.

82. ‘Fragil’ by Yahritza Su Esencia & Grupo Frontera - so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised Yahritza Su Esencia got back to the charts - last year he saw a pretty high breakthrough as one of the forerunners of this sound to the Hot 100, and now with Grupo Frontera for the added push, he’s back… but I’m not sure why anyone would be looking for this return. To be blunt, the big problem with Yahritza was that he was fifteen and sounded like it, and while the more robust accordion and melody to back up the steady tapping rhythm Grupo Frontera provides is better than what he had before, he still sounds painfully young and unsupported in this mix. The other problem is that while there’s more structure to this song, it has one abortive verse and then the rest is repeating the hook, where he whinges about his fragile heart and how he wishes he was able to shut off his feelings like this girl apparently can. It definitely comes across adolescent, so I guess it makes sense, but why put Grupo Frontera on this song at all, basically repeating the same lines? I think I get what this was trying to do… I’m just way less impressed with it.

58. ‘Haegeum’ by Agust D - another week, another attempted solo push from a member of BTS that racked up sales but little else. In case you don’t know, he also goes by Suga in BTS, Agust D is more tied to his rap mixtapes and an album that recently dropped, this being the single… honestly, it’s pretty decent. The Korean instrument that names the song brings a cool texture behind the sharper trap percussion which he rides with solid intensity, but when we get to the content… well, haegeum becomes synonymous with speaking against something forbidden or transgressive, and while I understand the weight of that sort of transgression in Korea, when translated it feels a bit thin. I’m not going to deny there’s something about highlighting the systems to which we give too much allegiance - although BTS has made an absolute killing manipulating those systems - and for his ultimate conclusion to be ‘it’s all done to divide us with envy and hatred and he’s got this new path’, which just delivering a pretty stock trap banger. I’m not saying this is bad, per se… it just kind of flimsy, doesn’t really stick as strongly as I’d like.

55. ‘Alone’ by Kim Petras ft. Nicki Minaj - yeah, not gonna lie, I had a bad feeling about this one from the jump - I’ve never been a fan of Kim Petras, I don’t like that Dr. Luke is producing this, and Nicki… look I’ve been charitable to her guest verses as of recently but this struck me as the sort of combination that wouldn’t turn out as well as anyone would hope. And when I immediately recognized the Alice Deejay sample from ‘Better Off Alone’, a classic late 90s trance song that’s already been sampled into the ground, I expected this to suck. And yeah, it does - the whirring chalky knock proves that once again Dr. Luke doesn’t know what he’s doing around trap beats, Kim Petras sounds like she was copying off Bebe Rexha’s homework and oversinging to compensate, and the song can’t build any momentum off of it whatsoever. I would stick up for Nicki’s verse, it’s the most distinctive part of the song, but every other line she’s stuttering and between the bargain barrel flexing we get the most telling line ‘main character syndrome, they extras’ - thanks Nicki for confirming exactly why working with you is such a headache. Can we just fast-forward to that Nicki Minaj album already, because this sucks in an increasingly stale and forgettable way, let’s move on.

18. ‘Double Fantasy’ by The Weeknd ft. Future - okay, I’m going to say something controversial: even despite all of the truly noxious buzz around The Idol and everything Sam Levinson, I kind of want to see it before writing it off? I don’t mind some trashy exploitation TV - I mean, come on, I got through multiple seasons of Euphoria and Riverdale, and say what you will about The Weeknd and Sam Levinson, but they’re at least interesting visual stylists and with the right framing and themes, it could make for okay melodrama. And the pedigree behind this song is great too - The Weeknd and Future’s record together is shaky, but adding Mike Dean and Metro Boomin to produce could make this potent… and I dunno, this isn’t bad, but it’s nowhere near what it should be. Don’t get me wrong, I think Future and The Weeknd are doing what they need to, play into the dark seducer / enabler vibes for the melodrama with this girl, play the bad guys, even if I’d argue Future’s verse adds some real context as to what happens after the hookup given the mess that’s likely to erupt when they get bored or the relationship fractures. I think the production might be the problem here - the gauzy analog synthwave keyboards alongside the saxophone sets a mood of nighttime opulence, but it lacks that darker edge you’d get from a producer like Illangelo, especially with those faint backing vocal calls, and the trap percussion feels a bit too prim and polished. This is a song that needed more swing and nastiness and it feels too cleanly mixed to sell it. And when the lyrics kind of play it safe as well… I’m sorry, I’ve heard everyone involved here nail this vibe and I’d call this a misstep. The worst thing this sort of exploitation can be is rote and boring - if this is the theme, I’m not impressed.

And yeah, that makes for a rough week. Best… I guess ‘Haegeum’ by Agust D, although it only barely wins out and I don’t think it’s that good. Worst is ‘Alone’ by Kim Petras and Nicki Minaj, and that’s not close at all. Next week… I’m expecting the Jack Harlow album bomb, the question will be how big it is, so stay tuned for that!