billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - may 27, 2023

This is the sort of week on the Hot 100 that creates a weird, sinking feeling in my gut. Not that it’s a precisely bad week - by many accounts it just feels normal, there’s some real promise in some new songs - but the devil is in the details with this one, in that it reflects a feud that’s re-igniting again and of which I have to be careful speaking on, especially as it appears that someone realized that the feud was what was keeping eyes on his music.

But before we get to all of that, the top 10, where holding the #1 for another week is ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen, and given that it rules streaming and is still picking up a strong airplay presence, you’d need a big swing to take it down and I’m not seeing where that’s coming from. Prime example is our brand new entry at #2: ‘All My Life’ by Lil Durk, featuring J. Cole. I’ll talk about the song itself more later on, but that’s a big swing and it certainly has robust streaming to break through, but any sort of radio catch-up is going to take time, especially when it can’t beat Morgan Wallen on streaming. This puts ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #3 - radio is definitely wavering and with streaming and sales on the downswing, but it has the inertia to take its sweet time on the exit, which is not something I can really say for ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA, which given its airplay losses is in outright freefall down to #4. Then we have ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma at #5, which is finally seeing a bit of radio, but is facing stiffer streaming competition, so it might be a bit late to make a major push, whereas ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez slid to #6 more on loss of position than any activity of the song itself, given relative stability on radio and streaming. Then we have ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd at #7 - it’s basically in radio freefall and that’s the majority of what it has, but a higher peak there means the dropoff will be slower, and it only barely held over ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii at #8, which slipped a bit on streaming but is having a pretty good radio run to compensate. Then we have our next new entry to the top 10 and one that I’m thrilled to see: the cover of ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs at #9 - streaming is strong, sales are strong, and apparently the label was so blindsided by how much this song has taken off that they’ve decided to throw some radio support behind it too where it’s picking up fast! Not the only song with Luke Combs on it that I can see being massive in the coming months, but this one I absolutely called. Finally there’s ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift’ clinging to #10 - this is one of those cases where the radio is really slow to get rid of her, and other songs are just falling off faster around her, it happens.

On that note, our losers and dropouts, and let’s start with the latter category because we had some big ones, albeit expected. ‘Lavender Haze’ by Taylor Swift is gone, along with ‘Escapism’ by RAYE and 070 Shake, handily clinching their year-end list spots, as well as ‘Bebe Dame’ by Fuerza Regida and Grupo Frontera, although ‘Que Vuelvas’ by Carin Leon and Grupo Frontera is likely going to be short. Our losers… I’ll admit I’m a little surprised by them. Sure, off the debut ‘Go Hard’ by Lil Baby skidded to 81, but I thought ‘El Gordo Trae El Mando’ by Chino Pacas had more momentum but it’s down to 72. I guess on better news ‘Sunrise’ by Morgan Wallen is finally fading away at 99, and most pleasingly, ‘Slut Me Out’ by NLE Choppa looks like its novelty is fading, so it’s down to 51.

Unfortunately, when we look at our gains - no returns again this week - it’s a much rougher list. Let’s get the worst out of the way first, ‘Mathematical Disrespect’ by Lil Mabu is up to 47 because he went viral, the song is not worth dignifying any further… but it’s frustrating that more rap debuts from last week I didn’t like also saw traction, like ‘Shake Sumn’ by DaBaby up to 74 and ‘What It Is (Block Boy)’ by Doechii and Kodak Black up to 80. I guess I can take some solace in ‘Area Codes’ getting a nice boost to 33 - I know folks are surprised I like the song, especially in comparison to the original ‘Area Codes’, but I still think it works. Outside of that… ‘Religiously’ by Bailey Zimmerman saw a sharp spike to 40, and ‘Waffle House’ by the Jonas Brothers is up to 57, a song of which I’m not saying is all that good, but I am warming to it more than I expected, it’ll be fascinating if it becomes a hit!

Anyway, we’ve got a pretty stacked list of new arrivals, so let’s start with…

98. ‘I Heard’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - so, uh… YoungBoy dropped another mixtape. Literally a few weeks after his proper album, his new mixtape is doing more on the Hot 100, so someone at the label should be getting fired. But what’s truly jarring are the possible reasons why, linked to the ongoing beef between YoungBoy and Lil Durk which may have been squashed momentarily at the beginning of the month but that appears not to have lasted long. Given the predilections for escalation here given how records are going head-to-head, I’m not commenting on any street agitation - I will say here that YoungBoy sounds even more manic and paranoid than usual, as his bars fly wildly off rhythm as he’s hearing plenty of rumours and looking to respond with violence to all of them, where it doesn’t appear like he’s sleeping or eating well and can’t even trust his mother! I’m not going to deny the song goes hard in the production, even with all the weird filmy layers weaving through the pianos, bells, and percussion in the mix - although putting the death cough at the end of the verse is pushing it - but while YoungBoy sounds more focused, the uneasy reality of his rage and how he might act out makes this tough to like. It’s certainly effective… but I’m not sure I’d go back to it much.

95. ‘Your Heart Or Mine’ by Jon Pardi - hey, what do you know, Jon Pardi is finally pushing my favourite song from his last album months after it dropped! And what I’m amused by is that by his neotraditional standards it’s probably his most ‘over-produced’ song with the jagged synth effects slathered over his guitar, fiddle, and pedal steel to pair with the stomp-clap - hell, it’s even occasionally on his vocals! And the funny thing is that for him, I don’t mind it as much - the song is a little sleazy in its underground hookup, it plays in a minor key which is a good fit for Pardi’s nasal drawl; he’s outside of his usual comfort zone, and the darker swing of the production fits that vibe. I dunno, this feels like the sort of track where the production should kill it for me, but I think the composition is strong and the atmosphere coalesces - I think it works, this is a really good song!

94. ‘Everything She Ain’t’ by Hailey Whitters - well, about time this broke through! I’ve been covering Hailey Whitters since 2020 and many consider her 2022 album her biggest shot to date. Unfortunately, the song being pushed isn’t ‘Boys Back Home’ or ‘College Town’ or ‘Middle Of America’ with American Aquarium, we can’t all be that lucky… and I have to be honest, I’ve never been a big fan of this one, where against a very jaunty handclap, fiddle, sandy percussion, and creaking sound underscoring the chipper vibes, Whitters tries to convince a guy to leave his current girlfriend for her, because Whitters is ‘everything she ain’t’. It’s not as dark as a gender-swapped ‘Treat You Better’, and Whitters seems to get that this is playing for lightweight melodrama… but it still feels cloying and not all that likable, especially given that it’s targeted at men but predominantly marketed for girls who want to be in her shoes. Not for me, I’d skip it.

87. ‘Fuck The Industry Pt. 2’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - this was the song for which I was dreading the discussion, because if YoungBoy was looking to maintain any industry connections, he set them ablaze with this. Let’s start with the big one: YoungBoy isn’t happy that Drake continues to work with Lil Durk, and after getting a facetime call to connect with Drake courtesy of J Prince, YoungBoy fires shots, including dissing J Prince directly; world class intellect here. He also goes at J Cole, where they were apparently set to record in 2021, YoungBoy was eight hours late and didn’t show, and J Cole didn’t want to reschedule… so fuck him too?! And for good measure, he calls Lil Yachty a homophobic slur in between the paranoid threats and flexing… and am I supposed to root for this? There’s a big difference between playing the villain and showcasing a death wish with some of these shots - it’s reckless to a frankly insane degree, and when the bass beat is sloppily mastered against the piano loop and muddy percussion, I have no desire to go back to this. He got the attention he wanted… I just hope this doesn’t end as badly as it very well could.

85. ‘Bury Me In Georgia’ by Kane Brown - I guess I shouldn’t be that surprised it took this long for Kane Brown to push another single - ‘Thank God’ is still doing really well, if you look at his chart performance off of this 2022 album, it’s been remarkably solid, and now with this album opener… and it’s an odd one, I have to say. Basically, he walks through his potential funeral arrangements with a striking amount of detail against a southern rock, bluesy stomper with bells, squealing fiddle, banjo, some guitar with real sizzle, and a lot of fried out vocal filters… and yet bizarrely the bass groove doesn’t have the muscle it should. I dunno, give this to Jay Joyce to produce instead of Dann Huff, this might hit harder, but I think what gets more distracting is that we get no context around this funeral, it’s just a dirge that feels like a really bizarre opener for an album, even if I do get the gospel tradition in which this is rooted. Again, not bad, just a weird choice for a single, that’s all.

84. ‘Acrostico’ by Shakira - I’m so happy that Shakira is back in the swing of releasing music fairly regularly, and it’s so nice that there’s an audience she still has to stick around and get charting success. Now all we need is the music to be good. And… yeah, this is a nice tune - a spare piano ballad with some echoing percussion where her children actually feature on the hooks for a really sweet mother-children ballad, trying to support them as time goes on in the wake of Shakira’s divorce. I’m sure that because I don’t speak Spanish, some of the poetry is lost on me, but it feels mature and well-presented, and I’m happy Shakira’s ex isn’t getting legal involved for featuring the kids on the song or in the video. It’s not something I’d probably revisit much, but there’s an intimate sweetness here that I appreciate - good stuff. And on that note…

66. ‘Life Goes On’ by Ed Sheeran ft. Luke Combs - maybe it’s just me being optimistic here, or riding on the high of predicting just how well the cover of ‘Fast Car’ would do… but I think with this remix featuring Luke Combs, if promoted properly Ed Sheeran has a bonafide smash with this song, I can see it dominating radio and maybe even breaking the top 10. You’d need to get streaming onboard to make it work, but Sheeran is on Atlantic, that can happen, and if you want one last grand slam to end his hitmaking tenure, there’s poetry with letting it be this. The acoustics are amazingly well balanced with the slight piano twinkles and subtle strings, and while Ed Sheeran’s voice can sound raw and shredded as he’s trying to process tangible grief at a friend who passed away and the necessity of moving on when he’s not quite ready, Luke Combs’ warmer timbre comes in and the two have great interplay, the sort of communal processing of pain that thematically works for this sort of cut. No joke, for me this remix is the best thing that Ed Sheeran has done since ‘Castle On The Hill’, and even if melodically the composition is pretty standard, this is a prime example of doing the basics extraordinarily well - so let’s make it a hit.

62. ‘Bitch Let’s Do It’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - … seriously, we have to go back to this now, the first song on the album? And… I mean, I like the piano flourish even the whirring trap percussion is shoddily mastered against the synth horn and YoungBoy’s drawling, off-beat shouts, flubbing rhymes and just leaving leaving in the mix where he drops off beat and has to try and hop back on it. And from there… flexing, threats, paranoid ranting, threatening to stab a woman in the private parts for giving him attitude… again, I understand that the appeal is how lurid and shocking all of this is, but when you pair with how sloppy of a MC that YoungBoy can be alongside the sheer amount of material that hits exactly the same notes, the shock value wears off in record time. So no, I don’t like this either.

2. ‘All My Life’ by Lil Durk ft. J. Cole - so the big publicity behind this song is that on its own, it beat the majority of what YoungBoy was shoveling out in terms of streaming metrics. I wouldn’t chalk all of this up to Lil Durk - the majority of his commercial success has been tied to featuring with bigger acts, but at least he can maintain a stable relationship with someone… unfortunately that also includes Dr. Luke who produced this with probably the easiest paycheque he ever cashed with the brittle trap percussion and very muted piano to support a goddamn children’s choir for the hook. And while I’m normally reticent on children’s choirs, it kind of fits for the aspirational vibes that Durk and J. Cole want to pursue - I think Durk’s verse is solid talking about the systemic changes that need to happen as he works to better himself, and I liked how he pushed back against mocking the stimulus cheques; he was right that for the folks who got it, it really helped push back against debt, helped change lives. J. Cole’s verse… it’s also pretty good, especially coming off the intro where he claps back against the cops, but it feels more self-focused on what he wants to pursue in terms of his rap career, but I do appreciate how he highlights so many up-and-coming rappers becoming known for their deaths rather than their music popping off, and I like that he takes shots at rap media who capitalize on that death; he wants them to get paid and grow old, and I can’t deny that’s a good focus. I dunno, the potential was there for this to really be a great pop crossover, but I think it’s missing that third gear to really ramp up off of J. Cole’s verse for the final hook, so call it good, not great.

Granted, it’s better than anything from YoungBoy Never Broke Again, who is getting both of the bottom spots this week with ‘Fuck The Industry Pt. 2’ as the worst and ‘Bitch Let’s Do It’ as the Dishonourable Mention. Now for the best… yeah, ‘Life Goes On’ by Ed Sheeran and Luke Combs kind of runs away with this, but I’m giving Honourable Mention to Jon Pardi for ‘Your Heart Or Mine’ - it’s a weird pivot for him especially, but I really like it! Next week… I mean, I don’t expect anything from Kesha’s new album even if that would be cool - same for Kaytramine, if I’m being honest - but we do have a Summer Walker EP and a big Beyonce remix with Kendrick Lamar, so stay tuned for that…