billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - may 20, 2023
So as of this week, we’re over halfway through the Billboard year… and I can’t be the only one who is underwhelmed - I’ve been saying that all damn year - but I do get the odd feeling that in the next few weeks we’re going to see some major shakeups, especially from all the major releases that haven’t seemed to have the staying power you’d expect. This week feels pretty straightforward, if a little busier than I expected, but I’ll take normalcy over disaster, if you catch my drift.
And nowhere is that more apparent than in our top ten, where barely anything even moved and that includes our #1, ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen. At this point, I’m honestly not sure what can really beat it: domination on streaming, strong sales, radio still gaining, which is not something I can say for ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA at #2, which might have better radio but is bleeding there fast and is not coming close to the streaming margin. Similar case for ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #3 - more radio inertia, but the streaming margin is much more pronounced. Still was enough to hold over ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma at #4, though - great streaming can only hold up so much when your radio has been excruciatingly slow to get onboard. It does have enough to hold over ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez, though, where it looks like it reached a gentle peak on the radio and streaming, a surge here might be very unlikely. But at least it’s stable compared to ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd at #6, which spent the week bleeding airplay with even less streaming to back it up. Then we have ‘un x100to’ by Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny, and I’m torn on this one - I expected this to make a real run, and on streaming it is, but the radio is really slow to move and even with Bad Bunny’s cosign I’m not sure this is going to have a ton of penetration. But then we have our one new top ten entry: ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii at #8. I’m torn on this one - to me it comes across as the marketable accessible version of what Rod Wave does better, and it’s clear from the airplay gains that radio agrees, but apparently he’s got streaming too so there is more groundswell than I expected… just wish I liked the song more. This was enough to elbow ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd down to #9, but let’s be real, it’s been on the way out for a while, and holding up the rear we have ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift at #10, which had a bizarrely good radio week but that looks to be an anomaly, I expect it’ll be gone soon.
Speaking of which, our losers and dropouts… and in the latter category, the only big one worth mentioning is ‘Bloody Mary’ by Lady Gaga which might just barely make the year-end list, as well as ‘Bzrp Music Sessions Vol 53’ with Bizarrap and Shakira falling off yet again, although shoutout to ‘Dawns’ by Zach Bryan and Maggie Rogers falling well short but doing frankly way better than it had any right to on the Hot 100. As for our losers… well, nobody is taking to ‘Double Fantasy’ by The Weeknd and Future so it’s down to 51, ‘Peaches’ by Jack Black is also continuing to lose at 99, and ‘Wreckage’ by Nate Smith doesn’t look like it’s caught on so it’s at 96 off the debut. The other losers… well, ‘Handle On You’ by Parker McCollum is getting pulled fast after it had its radio peak, so it fell to 47, and ‘Love You Anyway’ by Luke Combs slid to 52, although given that it’s now getting a slight radio push, it could very well rebound in the future.
And now for our returns and gains… and there are no returns, and a pretty limited list of gains all things considered. All relatively easy to explain, too: ‘Karma’ by Taylor Swift continues its single push at 35, ‘Eyes Closed’ by Ed Sheeran saw an album boost to 19, and ‘Tennessee Orange’ by Megan Moroney also saw a nice bump from her album to 30. The one surprise for me came with ‘Wild As Her’ by Corey Kent up to 40, but this week it got a measurable radio push, so I’ll be curious how much that translates to actual traction.
But as minor as the chart movement seems to be, we do have a sizable list of new arrivals, so let’s get this started with…
98. ‘What It Is (Block Boy)’ by Doechii ft. Kodak Black - well, way to leave me in a difficult position right from the jump, because as an up-and-coming artist on TDE, especially off of her EP she/her/black bitch from last year, I’ve been rooting for Doechii. And yet because apparently acts from TDE have given Kodak Black an open pass, it’s his presence that helps this crossover and chart… and yeah, he’s the worst part of this song given how he can barely stay on beat for his verse and is playing up the dominant block boy who wants the girl a half step behind him, which is the last thing I want to hear on a Doechii breakthrough song, but it’s not the only problem. For starters, Doechii is a spitter too, I don’t know why they’re rolling out her push with a ‘thugs need love’ joint that places her in the backseat and samples ‘Some Cut’ by Trillville with that tinny oily synth, cheap sounding snare, staccato piano chords, and a trap groove that should hit harder than it does. Yes, Doechii can croon over this and the hook is good and I like how her backing vocals are layered, but I think this is criminal mismanagement - from TDE, I expected way better than this.
97. ‘Curtains’ by Ed Sheeran - I’m not surprised that this is the one song from Subtract that seems to be catching more attention on the charts - it’s the most upbeat song on the album, it’s got a very sunny, optimistic vibe, the percussion groove is more developed and busy but ramps effectively into a song with a bit more rock presence in the guitars where there’s even some fuzz! Yes, the vocals are overcompressed for my taste - it’s a niggling issue across the entire album - and I think it could have used a proper bridge to drive it home but Sheeran knows how to sell this with the right intensity, depicting a conversation between two people trying to find the right words to say to step out of the shadows and climb free of depression and sadness however they can, if only for a brief snapshot. I think the song is great, and while it’s not my favourite from the album - especially in the wake of that ‘Life Goes On’ remix with Luke Combs that could be pushed as a single any day now - I’d be just fine with this getting some traction, check it out!
92. ‘Shake Sumn’ by DaBaby - hey look, DaBaby’s charting again… by hopping on a Jersey Club instrumental that’s barely two minutes long that went viral on TikTok, I can smell the desperation from here. Now with all of that in mind, I actually like the instrumental here: the bombastic synth horns build well against the pulsating groove, and while like most Jersey club it feels a bit incomplete without more percussion in the mix, it fits the loud, sweaty vibe that DaBaby is trying to create. Or at least I thought it would work, but there’s something about DaBaby here that feels weirdly flat - he doesn’t have the flair or vigor he used to flaunt so easily, and the bars sound like they were written in fifteen minutes, lacking any of the humour he used to have. He almost sounds bored, and that’s the wrong attitude for this - there’s a part of me that would be curious if he could pull out of his downward slide, and this had potential… but again, not as good as it should be.
90. ‘Mathematical Disrespect’ by Lil Mabu - …okay, what the fuck is this? For those of you who don’t know, Lil Mabu is a spoiled rich white kid for NYC who runs a promotional venture (I’m assuming with daddy’s money) who likes to cosplay as a street kid making drill in the most shameless way possible, the sort of shit Jake and Logan Paul used to make in 2017 with full knowledge that the teenage white boys who comprise his audience don’t remotely care if you’re not legit if your beat goes hard enough, where every bad line becomes memetic because it’s designed to be. So the lines about ‘making money while he pees’, dissing other drill rappers by saying the only deals they take are pleas, then him immediately copping a plea to the NYPD by saying that he’s a complete liar and didn’t even write anything, and then goes into a bunch of truly cringe-worthy sex references that include trigonometry, stopping the song midway through explain a bad colour reference, and in what I find most notable, ‘Call her Virgil / ‘cause the way she be blowin’ shit got me dead’. That’s a line that will ensure this sniveling troll remains unsigned and probably sees at least one ass-whupping in the near future - in the mean time, this is barely ninety seconds of a stock drill beat with no hook; like 6ix9ine, this guy wants the reaction, but in reality this is a witless, also-ran approach to provocation on a truly atrocious song. Should be gone by next week and we don’t need to acknowledge this mewling dweeb any further, next!
88. ‘You, Me & Whiskey’ by Justin Moore & Priscilla Block - okay, now onto something has to be marginally better than that… alright, how about Justin Moore following up on a single from 2021 for a project this year with this duet from six months ago with an artist who never really seemed to get her career going properly? And while I actually think these two have decent chemistry - Priscilla Block has some tangible presence here and for a smoky reconciliation song with whiskey where a lot of history hangs in the background - the first thing that came to mind immediately was… ‘man, this reminds me of an underpowered ‘Never Say Never’ by Cole Swindell and Lainey Wilson’. Same awkwardly programmed percussion that isn’t needed, same back-and-forth interplay on the verses, same weirdly filmy but oversold production… but I liked ‘Never Say Never’, whereas I’m not sure the atmosphere ever comes together with this; there’s less conflict, why not at least try for subtlety? I dunno, there was a time where I had way more anger for Justin Moore, but this is too forgettable to hate, let’s move on.
83. ‘Mejor Que Yo’ by Anuel AA, Mambo Kingz & DJ Luian - okay, so according to my sources the big reason this is charting at all is tied to into breakup drama from two years ago; Anuel AA dedicated this new song to her even despite the fact that Karol G is now dated Feid - for what it’s worth, I think she upgraded across the board - and now he’s got this reggaeton attempt to win her back. For what it’s worth, I think the percussion here has more texture and presence than your stock reggaeton beat against the faded woodwinds, but the big problem with Anuel AA is that he has very little in the way of distinctive vocal personality in the scene. On this song, though, he tries to make up for it by over-explaining all the ways of how Karol G is still into him and Feid can’t satisfy her in the same way where the level of detail and pettiness is on naked display even off a translation! It just comes across as really whiny, and I don’t care enough about this dated drama to want to humour it further - at least the beat is good, next!
66. ‘Religiously’ by Bailey Zimmerman - I honestly don’t have a lot to say about this one - I just reviewed Bailey Zimmerman’s new album, and while I’ve liked the majority of his singles, this title track is one I can take or leave any given day. It’s certainly twangier with the banjos against the touches of heavier percussion and pedal steel, and Zimmerman can sell regret reasonably well given how it was his fault it all fell apart, but it feels really clunky to lean so hard on the word ‘religiously’, both in terms of lyrical construction and the sentiment - of course he wants to focus on the one girl who loved him ‘religiously’, it’s melodramatic framing to crank up the stakes and he can’t quite sell it yet. I don’t think this is bad either, but it’s easily his weakest single - I’d pass on it.
59. ‘Go Hard’ by Lil Baby - so apparently Lil Baby is coming with another album at some point this year - feels likely, given how his last project didn’t seem to leave much of an impact compared to older songs of his that went viral, and that gave me a worried feel about this, which was leaked on Instagram back in May of 2020. But hey, go back to the well, see what works, the sound hasn’t precisely moved on yet… and to his credit, it’s probably one of Lil Baby’s most memorable cuts in recent memory. He sounds more engaged against the hazy pianos, and while the percussion, bass and vocal mixing clips the mix, there’s an intensity to Lil Baby’s tighter flexing and threats that feels credible. Granted, he’s doing while criticizing his opps’ ‘feminine ways’ and talking about how on his drive-bys he wants somebody dead, and the rest of the flexing lacks the inspirational framing that helped him be more interesting, but if this ‘back-to-basics’ approach is what he needs… it’s not the worst thing, especially as it feels like a properly complete composition. Not especially good, but I won’t call this bad either.
54. ‘Area Codes’ by Kali - okay, here’s a bit of context: the original ‘Area Codes’ with Ludacris and the late Nate Dogg is a ridiculously fun braggadocious song about having groupies all over the world - the guitar groove is phenomenal, Nate Dogg sounds amazing, and Ludacris remains one of the best out of the south to ever do it; I especially liked how he said to stop the violence to go have sex, that’s just good praxis. But Word Of Mouf came out over twenty years ago, and I’m not against a gender-flipped version, especially as Kali is an up-and-comer with roots in both California and Georgia. Now I don’t think this remotely lives up to the original, mostly on production - it’s extremely minimalistic, there’s no tune to this beyond the bass beat and the occasional subtle effect, so all of the groove is gone - but Kali at least gets the casual, lightly humourous vibe for fleecing tricks for all they’re worth, and there’s a tightness and control to her flow that can sell it. Her delivery reminds me of a more refined and focused Latto, but the flow is much better, and I can see this working in a spare, mid-2000s throwback vein.
And honestly, considering how rough this week otherwise is with new arrivals… fuck it, she gets the Honourable Mention with ‘Curtains’ by Ed Sheeran as the best. Worst of the week is obviously ‘Mathematical Disrespect’ by Lil Mabu - let’s try to give this guy precisely zero attention after this week, he’s not worth it - but Dishonourable Mention… I like Doechii, but ‘What It Is (Block Boy)’ is such a misstep in production and bringing in Kodak that despite her good performance, I never want to hear it again. Next week… I guess we’ll see the fallout because I don’t see the major release disrupting that much, we’ll have to see.