billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - may 12, 2023
This is the sort of week where it feels like there should have been more going on than there was. Given the short notice and relative lack of promo, I’m not that surprised that we didn’t get a Jack Harlow album bomb, but it’s the relative lack of other activity that has me a bit perturbed, especially given that I don’t really see Ed Sheeran making a greater impact next week. Whatever they may have been trying to bomb the charts… well, going less commercial doesn’t seem like it’s working, even if the music is better.
But hell, I’d argue it’s more than just there, look at our top ten, where ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen once again squats at #1 - while it might not dominate streaming at the very top, its margin there is so good that along with major airplay gains, I’m not sure what can challenge it. Yeah, ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA holds at #2, but it lags on streaming and radio is in freefall, I think it had its moment and now it’s over. I’d say something similar for ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #3 - streaming is slipping and radio peaked, the only question will be how fast it falls off. That opens the door for ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma at #4 - it rules streaming and now has sales traction - I think the lack of radio will prevent it from sealing the top spot, but it’s making moves. Similar case for ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez up to #5, where the radio growth is still strong and streaming seems to be finally shifting into gear - tracking momentum will be key here. And hell, while radio was unstable for ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd at #6, it still has enough of it that it actually picked up a spot. That might also be because ‘un100xto’ by Bad Bunny and Grupo Frontera slid to #7 - to me this is marginal because streaming is solid, but radio is just not moving very quickly, and even with the cosign, I do get why. It was enough to hold over ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd at #8 - definitely on the way out here on radio - ‘Boy’s A Liar, Pt. 2’ by PinkPantheress and Ice Spice at #9 - where the radio momentum is stalling out about as fast as its streaming - and ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift at #10, which had a bizarrely stable week on the radio and didn’t lose that much to impact the margins - go figure.
That takes us neatly to the losers and dropouts, of which the only one really worth mentioning is ‘wait in the truck’ by HARDY and Lainey Wilson which easily clinched its year-end spot; there’s also ‘All The Girls You Loved Before’ by Taylor Swift, but let’s be real, it’s been on the downswing for weeks and was never going to last that long. The losers feel scattered, though - for the natural exit having clinched position we have ‘Escapism’ by RAYE and 070 Shake at 40 along with ‘Lavender Haze’ by Taylor Swift at 45, ‘Peaches’ by Jack Black slid to 82 as the meme finally dies off, ‘Double Fantasy’ by The Weeknd and Future fell off the debut to 35, and ‘Dawns’ by Zach Bryan and Maggie Rogers is just barely hanging on at 100. The one that actually surprised me here is ‘Bloody Mary’ by Lady Gaga at 84 - I’m more shocked that it lasted so long beneath my radar, peaking just below the top 40, and if it gets very lucky might just scrape onto the bottom of the year-end list, that’s wild!
Now the returns and gains are just as scattered… but bizarrely I found a bit more to like? No, I’m not really pleased that ‘Private Landing’ by Don Toliver featuring Justin Bieber and Future is back at 99, but I won’t complain that ‘Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol 53’ by Bizarrap and Shakira is at 98, as in both cases I don’t expect them to really last. But I find the gains much more interesting, where the only one I don’t really like is ‘El Gordo Trae El Mando’ by Chino Pacas at 61. The rest… well, ‘Memory Lane’ by Old Dominion at 75 and ‘It Matters To Her’ by Scotty McCreery at 73 are more forgettable than bad, ‘ICU’ by Coco Jones at least has some promise in R&B at 63, and ‘Human’ by Cody Johnson is finally getting a proper push at 62! But the big stories are ‘Karma’ by Taylor Swift spiking nicely to 52 - the second this gets a video, it’s going to be really big - and the biggest surprise with ‘Cupid’ by Fifty Fifty up to 19! Whatever formula they have to make this work in the American market is working, and it’s one of the few k-pop songs that have charted that I’ve really liked! You can chalk a lot of that up to streaming, but it’s also got a bit of radio, I’m curious how much of a run this can make!
But that takes us to our shockingly limited list of new arrivals, so let’s start off with…
96. ‘Common Ground’ by Jack Harlow - you ever hear a point getting made that’s on the money, probably even cutting, but is coming from absolutely the wrong source? Yeah, that’s this song: it’s an explosive way to open up with the album with a great bassline and a good sample loop and pattering percussion - the production on this track is excellent even if we get it for just over ninety seconds - and it’s not like Jack Harlow is wrong in his portrayal of how white America commodifies hip-hop culture while never having to engage with the harsh reality of Black America, with probably the most cutting lines being about how those in rap media now covering the genre are often overwhelmingly white, middle class, and don’t see the streets. Those are good observations… that stop precisely before examining the reality that Jack Harlow’s career and industry-driven success is driven off of that audience; hell, he’s not from the streets either, at some points he was that audience! So without that added element of introspection that could challenge his own privilege - on a song that can’t even make the two minute mark - the impact is greatly diminished. Eminem made this same song twenty years ago called ‘White America’, and it was way more cutting and real than this - granted, that’s common ground Jack does want to examine, but we’ll get to that. In the mean time… the song is fine, but should be way better.
91. ‘People’ by Libianca - so this song has been blowing up worldwide, especially in the UK - I wasn’t familiar with Libianca, but she was originally born in Minneapolis, her parents relocated to Cameroon, when she was young, she was on The Voice in 2021, and while getting eliminated early she still got signed and this is her breakout song. And it’s a pretty good cut, taking a very gentle afrobeat groove with subtle reverbed R&B melodies that do a lot to center Libianca’s singing and her layered vocals - perhaps a bit overprocessed for what this needs to be, but it works in the content, where she explores her cyclothymia, a mood disorder that can leave her in deep wells of depression that’s she’s been masking, where folks mistake her reddened eyes for smoking weed and not crying, made all the sadder by the fact that she questions God why she has to put up this facade of strength. So it’s a very understated, very sad song… but the hook really works, and I think this is a very promising breakthrough - sad that it had to be this, but it works; great stuff.
88. ‘Waffle House’ by Jonas Brothers - look, I know I was done with the Jonas Brothers comeback earlier than most - they were never part of my nostalgia, and a lot of Happiness Begins really sucked, the sort of half-formed commercial cash grab that worked like gangbusters. The problem is following that on a new album, apparently executive produced by Jon Bellion - dude, you don’t have to keep doing this, please make that next solo album already - and this song was getting a reputation for being crap very quickly. And… look, it’s not as bad as I was expecting - Jon Bellion can write a terrific hook, the retro-80s sheen has a bit more body off a solid bassline and actual harmonies, the sentiment of a frustrated couple finding a moment of respite in the little things even if Nick Jonas should absolutely have taken the lead for the entire track… but I’m sorry, this sounds like a sanitized chintzy Waffle House commercial for daytime TV that would have dropped in the mid-90s, and you know they wouldn’t have named it ‘waffle house’ if they weren’t counting on that endorsement check. Now just because it can be an obscenely catchy commercial doesn’t necessarily make it bad - this is considerably better than the atrocity that is ‘Fancy Like’ - and it’s not like the Jonas Brothers have ever been overflowing with artistic dignity or integrity, but Jon Bellion is certainly better than this, and that’s what triggers the feeling of embarrassment with this. Not the worst thing I’ve heard - hell, I’d say on hook alone the Jonas Brothers pushed plenty of worse singles in recent years - but I know exactly why so many folks hate this already, and if it catches on… oof, this could get rough.
69. ‘Wreckage’ by Nate Smith - not gonna lie, I found out mostly by accident that Nate Smith was releasing his debut album at the end of April - I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that he was going to get an album rollout or a second single, but what did surprise me is that the album was twenty songs and ran for over an hour - and that’s not including the deluxe edition, which is precisely the wrong lesson Nashville should be taking from Morgan Wallen! But hey, I found ‘Whiskey On You’ utterly forgettable, so maybe the second single could be better… and my god, it really is. Not gonna lie, just on the basis of this I now have a reason to be interested in Nate Smith, because the writing here is excellent, tracing the emotional journey of learning to love again post bad or abusive relationship, down to a lot of emotionally honest details like getting stuck in one’s own head or relearning how to trust, or just being so emotional in the realization that she actually loves enough to see all the wreckage and stay. And playing in the piano ballad structure with the touches of organ with just how raw Smith’s vocals are is a good juxtaposition, even if there are points that feel a bit oversold and borderline clingy - it’s really important the healing journey is part of this story. Not gonna lie, there was some real personal emotional resonance here for me on this one, and while I’m not sure how well it’ll stick, especially given how limited any guitars or groove feel on the song, it’s still really damn good. Not enough to get me to check out an album that bloated, but I’ll take what I can get here.
54. ‘They Don’t Love It’ by Jack Harlow - so can we just have a moratorium on white rappers putting themselves alongside Eminem? Forget however uneven his catalog is these days, it’s just so goddamn corny especially in the belaboured way that Jack Harlow tries to get around saying his name. Also, let’s make this abundantly fucking clear, in the ranks of white rappers I have a top ten that doesn’t include Jack Harlow, and the assertion that they didn’t ‘make it’ because they don’t love the art in the same he does - once again conveniently ignoring his backing from DJ Drama and major industry push for a second chance that the majority of rappers never get - is myopic and galling. And with all the braggadocious flexing at trying to sidestep his ‘cool’ in order to get something that’s meaningful and more traditionally masculine… yeah, no, cool and chill is at the roots of Jack Harlow’s underlying appeal, and while I can see the J. Cole formula maybe working with this swerve, it’s a tougher sell when I don’t buy the content - hell, the majority of time I don’t buy it from Cole! And yes, while I get that chipmunk soul works for a whole swathe of my generation, it rarely does for me, and while the percussion groove has a good bounce off the pianos and horns, the second the vocals slip in, I groan and roll my eyes. So no, I really don’t love it.
In fact, on a short week, it’s simple, this is easily the worst for me - yes, it beats out ‘Waffle House’, although that one could get annoying as hell in record time. Best of the week… I’m giving a tie here, both very pleasant surprises for different reasons, ‘People’ by Libianca as the breakthrough and ‘Wreckage’ by Nate Smith as the second single that really struck for me. Next week… I don’t expect an Ed Sheeran album bomb given his label issues, but I’ve been surprised before, who knows what we get.