billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - may 11, 2024

So I’ve mentioned this in passing before, but one of the benefits of Billboard BREAKDOWN and the charts in general dropping a little later compared to the speed of discourse online is that you can observe how things cool or heat up with the benefit of time; everything can be hyped to the moon and back on social media… for about fifteen minutes if you’re lucky, but what actually lands is a larger conversation, including the actions of the industry as a whole. And I want to address a big part of that from the jump right now, because the big story of the Hot 100 is not exactly what charted although believe me, that’s important: it’s that as of May 1, 2024, TikTok and UMG struck a new licensing agreement, which resets the TikTok promo markets back to normal and will likely be a major sea change over the next few weeks as Universal acts try to rebuild their momentum… or get a little boost from the momentum that’s already been developed.

Now this has not taken effect to this chart as of yet, so when we look at our top ten at the moment, I’m not seeing the biggest of impact, and it was predicted that ‘Fortnight’ by Taylor Swift and Post Malone would comfortably hold the #1… but it won’t for long. Which is insane when you consider this is a Taylor Swift song with massive radio backing already, but it’s tumbled off the top on streaming and sales, and given the insanity the past week, I don’t see it reclaiming the spotlight as near as next week! And the reason for that… honestly for me feels like it’s coming out of nowhere, a brand new #2: ‘Million Dollar Baby’ by Tommy Richman. Full disclosure, I have no clue who this guy is and we’ll get more into the song later on, but given that he’s largely independent, he blew up on TikTok and rode good sales and frankly insane streaming to the top, he’ll be in the mix #1 next week! And he won’t be the only one: ‘A Bar Song (Tipsy)’ by Shaboozey has surged into the top 10 at #3 with massive sales momentum and plenty of streaming to boot - I’m thrilled to see this actually have momentum to become a proper hit, let’s see how it rides the waves! But then we have a track that’s only going to benefit from more TikTok crossover support: ‘Espresso’ by Sabrina Carpenter back up to #4, riding a lot of radio and streaming… although curiously sales are running behind, that’s interesting to me. Then we have ‘Beautiful Things’ by Benson Boone unable to get beyond #5, where he has great sales and the radio support is there… but it’s getting shakier near the top and the streaming just isn’t coming back the way it needs to, that’s also telling. Compare this to ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims at #6, which may be reaching its peak on top on the radio and sales are still good, but I’d put money on this going into the downswing very soon. Then we have ‘Too Sweet’ by Hozier, and I’m not sure what to think about a song that actually did hit #1: streaming and sales have rebounded, but it needs to make up a lot of radio traction to remain competitive, and even if you can say he’s already won, I’d like to see this have a more sustained run. But then we have the rebound of ‘Like That’ by Future, Metro Boomin, and Kendrick Lamar back to #8, and let’s make this clear, this song has beaten every expectation when it comes to a diss record including getting real radio promo; the fact that amidst the chaos it has not yet been thrown to the wayside speaks to a cultural penetration that might spell problems to the beef at large down the road, it’ll probably be more of a conversation next week. Finally, we have some fading of the Taylor Swift album bomb, with ‘I Can Do It With A Broken Heart’ and ‘Down Bad’ appearing to be tested as the upcoming singles at #9 and #10.

This naturally takes us to our losers and dropouts, of which there are a few that feel significant in the latter category, specifically around Nicki Minaj: ‘Everybody’ with Lil Uzi Vert likely clinching its year-end list spot, and ‘FTCU’ possibly just falling short after its boost last week, alongside those that fell well short like ‘Praise Jah In The Moonlight’ by YG Marley, ‘Soak City (Do It)’ by 310babii, and ‘Selfish’ by Justin Timberlake. But our losers are a lot more straightforward: outside of continued losses for ‘Cry’ by Benson Boone to 95 and ‘Let’s Go’ by Key Glock at 100, it’s all Taylor Swift here, so let’s run down from the top: ‘My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys’ at 16, ‘But Daddy I Love Him’ at 18, ‘Florida!!!’ with Florence + The Machine at 20, ‘The Tortured Poets Department’ at 21, ‘Guilty As Sin?’ at 22, ‘The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived’ at 30, ‘Fresh Out The Slammer’ at 35, ‘loml’ at 36, ‘The Alchemy’ at 37, ‘I Can Fix Him (No Really I Can)’ at 40, ‘So High School’ at 47, ‘imgonnagetyouback’ at 49, ‘The Black Dog’ at 51, ‘Clara Bow’ at 52, ‘The Prophecy’ at 56, ‘thanK you aIMee’ at 59, ‘How Did It End?’ at 62, ‘The Albatross’ at 64, ‘I Hate It Here’ at 66, ‘Chloe or Sam or Sophia or Marcus’ at 69, ‘I Look In People’s Windows’ at 71, ‘The Bolter’ at 75, ‘Peter’ at 78, ‘Cassandara’ at 82, ‘and ‘The Manuscript’ at 99.

But now we have a pretty significant set of returns and gains… albeit possibly fewer of the latter than you might expect, given that more of it is just what has the strength to rebound and fill the gaps higher on the charts, especially as the majority of Taylor’s album bomb just stuck around. Now at the bottom of the Hot 100, we did see ‘Dirt Cheap’ by Cody Johnson claw back to 94, ‘We Ride’ by Bryan Martin at 93, and ‘Bandit’ by Don Toliver at 92, but the majority of our gains are in the top half of the Hot 100, with the spare exceptions of ‘Halfway To Hell’ by Jelly Roll, ‘Wild Ones’ by Jessie Murph and Jelly Roll at 57, ‘Wildflowers and Wild Horses’ by Lainey Wilson at 55, ‘Made For Me’ by Muni Long at 54, and ‘act ii: date @ 8’ by 4batz featuring Drake - speaking of the worst possible timing to be tied to Drake right now, yeesh. From there… it’s not exactly consistent in terms of genre or label in the rebounds, so excluding the songs in the top 10 I’ve already mentioned, let’s work from the bottom up: ‘Where It Ends’ by Bailey Zimmerman rising to 50, ‘Good Luck Babe!’ by Chappell Roan nicely rebounding to 48, ‘redrum’ by 21 Savage at 46, ‘Never Lose Me’ by Flo Milli at 45, ‘Gata Only’ by FloyyMenor and Cris Mj at 44, ‘Austin’ by Dasha at 43, ‘Carnival’ by Kanye West, Ty Dolla Sign, Rich The Kid and Playboi Carti at 42, and ‘Whatever She Wants’ by Bryson Tiller at 41. Then there’s ‘End Of Beginning’ by Djo at 39, ‘Yeah Glo!’ and ‘Wanna Be’ with Megan Thee Stallion by GloRilla at 39 and 38 respectively, ‘Agora Hills’ by Doja Cat at 33, ‘Get It Sexyy’ by Sexyy Red at 32, and ‘Type Shit’ by Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott and Playboi Carti at 31. Finally, ‘Feather’ by Sabrina Carpenter at 29, ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at 28, ‘Greedy’ by Tate McRae at 27, ‘I like the way you kiss me’ by Artemas at 26, ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves at 24, ‘Stick Season’ by Noah Kahan at 23, ‘we can’t be friends (wait for your love)’ by Ariana Grande at 19, ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow at 15, and ‘Saturn’ by SZA at 12.

Now funnily enough, it all leads to a shockingly light week of new arrivals for once - might as well savor it for a moment before next week - so let’s start with…

87. ‘Belong Together’ by Mark Ambor - Alright look, if there’s one thing that the TikTok/UMG feud proved, it’s not how easy it is for new independent acts to find fluky crossover success on TikTok with diminished competition, but the mass of mediocre at best white boy singer-songwriters that a more saturated market would elbow them out. Hence at least for this week we have Mark Ambor - NYC singer-songwriter, signed to an independent, has released two EPs that didn’t do much of anything, went viral on TikTok with this new song… and oh boy, we have a guy who sounds like a slightly older Shawn Mendes making stomp-clap pop folk and a lightweight love song that’ll be shipped to a commercial post-haste, surely we needed more of this! Now if that sounds dismissive… it is, but mostly because this is a very sanitized, lightweight song that has been dime a dozen for a decade now, and while the chirpy guitars are a nicer touch, I don’t get much unique personality or flair to it. It’s not terrible by any means, but I can’t see it having enough character to stick around, that’s all.

73. ‘Okay’ by JT - You know for as much cultural presence as it feels like the City Girls have, they actually haven’t charted as much as you might think, with this being JT’s first solo charting single, her only other one was with Summer Walker three years ago. But the City Girls formula has had longevity amongst some women in rap, this could be promising… and I dunno, I get the suspicion that this song should be better than it is. I actually think the production has some flair with the synth horns and trap percussion that’s a bit flimsy but is at least competently mastered to drive the melody, but JT’s dead-eyed flexing sounds perpetually disinterested and I can’t say her rapping is all that impressive between the stock self-aggrandizing and a passing shot at Cardi B that reminds me of a rapper I’d much rather listen to and enjoy. Again, I’m not calling this bad - in the right environment, I can imagine this working… but I also can imagine it living up to its title, and no further.

63. ‘Adivino’ by Myke Towers & Bad Bunny - I’ve been trying to keep an eye on what crossover traction Bad Bunny has had the past year or so, because while he did get an album bomb late last year, I’m not sure he’s enjoyed the stability he saw earlier in the 2020s, so maybe a team-up with Myke Towers for that next project makes sense for his next project, which when translated is ‘the Black Panther’. But don’t expect any politics with this, where the two men spend the song scolding one of their exes for potentially coming back into their lives with a ‘stay in your lane’, where she belongs to the streets, not their hearts. It’s absolutely sleazy, and Bad Bunny can at least commit to the sour angst of it all, where it’s implied she dumped him and now wants another shot that he knows is a bad idea, but Myke Towers… seems perfectly fine fucking again, and it creates a weird dissonance at the core of the song… which might as well be the feel with the creaking, badly tuned synths that open up the song before the bass swamps everything and we get a number of admittedly textured percussion change ups that don’t just stick to stock reggaeton or Latin trap. I dunno, I’m not sure there’s enough here that really sticks and it feels discordant in itself, perhaps not even intentionally. But do you want to hear a song that was clearly well-constructed to do a lot…

11. ‘euphoria’ by Kendrick Lamar - …so the weird thing about coming to ‘euphoria’ today is that I have the context of everything else that happened that week between this and now - I know where the beef goes, I know the ugly swerves it has taken, and I’m very aware of the fact that this has already hit the streets in a way that demands responsibility; beyond the fact that I live in Toronto and have my ear to the ground enough to know more than I will reveal, a whole lot of people have gotten real irresponsible with how they’ve contextualized the entertainment of the battle. And it’s hard to blame them for that - most people are only hearing the songs, they don’t know what’s only implied behind the scenes, which once again highlights just how many people are ill-equipped to cover beef in any variety and on some level I include myself. All of that being established… ‘euphoria’ dropped while I was writing Billboard BREAKDOWN last week, and more time has only confirmed that this is one of the best diss records of this year, a dizzying tour de force of flips in production and flow and wordplay that may not be saying much all that new about Drake, but when presented with this much expressive flair and layers, it highlights just how many people were salivating for rap with layers and double entendres and not dumbing it down, it’s going to challenge for the #1 next week and very possibly get it! I love how Kendrick slow-walks the opening with the gentle keys and guitars to set up how much he’s choreographed the beef in his head, seemingly predicting how Drake will respond before he even does - made all the more potent because Drake did fall into the traps of misreading Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers, which we’ll likely get to next week - with the warning set up as the horns blare up and Kendrick continues to goad Drake into response. I actually don’t love how long it takes for Kendrick to get to his sharper barbs, but once he gets going it’s impressive - the YNW Melly line, drawing the continuity to Pusha T, the explicit DMX callback which becomes a fantastic hook, and highlighting he likes Drake in the R&B mold, he doesn’t like nor buy Drake acting tough; I’ve come around to the line ‘we hate the bitches you fuck ‘cause they confuse themselves with real women’ - both sides of this beef have a distressingly bad habit of treating women like pawns in this rap beef and it’s gross when I still think Megan also has one of the best diss records of this year with ‘Hiss’ and beat Kendrick to the punch with many of these implications - but for as much as Kendrick is trying to elbow Drake out of the culture and even if I might somewhat agree, Drake has albums you can argue as classics, that’s a weaker jab. But then the beat switches up again for something bassy and even more intense and it’s probably the most cutting material here - I like that Kendrick reestablishes the West Coast affiliation and TDE stuck behind him, a wedge I thought Drake would be able to press but Kendrick flips in order to attack Drake’s industry affiliations including the C&D for ‘Like That’, I like how Kendrick tries to revoke Drake’s n-word pass in the most exasperated tone possible, and the Sexyy Red lines are fucking hilarious, I stand by that. Now the line about raising a son… again, Drake, this is what happens when you mention family in your disses, it’s a low blow but it’s inbounds now - honestly, the Toronto-accented ‘crodie’ bars referring to certain city-level gang activity around Chinatown is much messier - and for what it’s worth I do think Kendrick made a mistake mixing up Joel Osteen with Haley Joel Osment, even if the bar was funny as hell as well as any jabs at using AI which thankfully feels far removed from this beef. I could go further - there’s a lot of layered double-meanings to the song - but what ‘Euphoria’ does is actually much simpler: it’s a diss record only Kendrick could make, endlessly quotable, well-produced, frequently hilarious, and proving that he was well-prepared to engage on a historic level. Even with the context of everything that is to come, if this sticks around, I’d be thrilled - fantastic song!

2. ‘Million Dollar Baby’ by Tommy Richman - And now to end this off… with a song and artist I had never heard of before this week. So for those who don’t know, Tommy Richman is from Virginia, he’s been active releasing singles and EPs since the late 2010s, he had an album in 2022, and he’s signed underneath Brent Faiyaz; not exactly a great sign in my books, but I’ve heard his sound described as a blur of southern rap, R&B, and Mac DeMarco influence, so that’s at least interesting. And here… I’m not sure I hear Mac DeMarco so much as the rubbery synths playing off the sandy knock of the groove that feels a little ramshackle and reminding me of Nourished by Time… just with way less kooky atmosphere and a weaker hook and vocals that stick in more of a breathy 80s falsetto. Where I think the comparison makes more sense is the writing: Tommy Richman is trying to pick up this girl and flex that he could make it and win her over in this city, but has no tangible success and seem to be stewing in his own frustrated missteps, with the implication they may have had something before but I’m not sure how much that matters, it’s about that homegrown swagger and vibe even if it’s not connecting. In a way it reminds me of Steve Lacy a bit in timbre and attitude and why it’s gone viral, but even with my issues with that song, given the abbreviated length I’m just not sure there’s enough here to stick more deeply. Not precisely bad but… look, if Kendrick thoroughly beats him next week, I’m not gonna complain.

So that was our week… yeah, best and worst fall out fast here, and it shouldn’t be a surprise: ‘euphoria’ by Kendrick Lamar got the best, ‘Adivino’ by Myke Towers and Bad Bunny with the worst. Next week… it’s gonna get messy, folks, stay tuned…