billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 7, 2020

I get the feeling that this episode might be more interesting to a completely different demographic than my audience. Because here I was going thinking that there could well be a BTS explosion… only to get hit with a very different album bomb that I nearly forgot about but shows the sort of considerable force that isn’t really getting significant coverage. I’ll be honest, I forgot that project was even released… which might be the most telling sign, and we’ll get into why in a bit.

But first, our top ten, and yes, ‘The Box’ by Roddy Ricch is still at #1 thanks to a stranglehold on streaming - and with the video coming, it’s probably not shifting… except for radio seeming to stall out prematurely. That hasn’t been an issue for ‘Life Is Good’ by Future ft. Drake at #2, which still has traction and is narrowing the margin, especially on YouTube… but it’s not beating ‘The Box’ anywhere just yet. Then we have ‘Circles’ by Post Malone at #3, which is bleeding in all categories, but it’ll take a few weeks before that airplay margin weakens enough for it to truly fall off. But the big story of this week starts with our new #4 and one that will likely not last in the top 10: ‘ON’ by BTS. Yes, it’s dominant on sales and the YouTube is good… but it doesn’t have on-demand streaming weight and it has no radio, so if you’re wondering why BTS songs smash onto the charts for a single week and then evaporate, that’s why - there’s no ‘conspiracy’, stan army, BTS and their management just haven’t cracked the streaming market like they have YouTube. Compare this to Dua Lipa and ‘Don’t Start Now’ at #5, who also doesn’t have huge on-demand streaming, but the song is a radio monster and still gaining, or ‘ROXANNE’ by Arizona Zervas at #6, which has weaker sales but has just been unbelievably consistent in streaming and radio - actually went on a bit of a run this week in airplay. That was probably enough to put it over ‘Dance Monkey’ by Tones and I, which fell to #7 as I predicted based on radio slipping into freefall even despite good sales - shame, as I still like that song, but its run was impressive. More promising are the gains for ‘Blinding Lights’ by The Weeknd to #8, rising thanks to really strong sales, streaming, and a real radio tear - told y’all it was going to be a hit, and it’s getting there. It blew past ‘Memories’ by Maroon 5 at #9, which is hemorrhaging radio even despite a modest sales recovery - thankfully this is on its way out. Unfortunately, ‘Intentions’ by Justin Bieber ft. Quavo stuck around at #10 because streaming got behind it and it’s making a radio run - congrats, Bieber, you’re pushing the worst song from your bad album as a single, that’s smart!

But on the topic of things that should die, we’ve got our losers and dropouts, without much that surprising in the latter category as ‘Bandit’ by Juice WRLD and YoungBoy Never Broke Again finally faded away, along with ‘Truth Hurts’ by Lizzo - kind of amazing how quickly that song’s moment seems to have faded, isn’t it? And most of our losers are just debuts from last week, which translates to album bombs fading. For Bieber that meant ‘Yummy’ falling to 23 and ‘Forever’ with Post Malone and Clever at 74, and for A Boogie wit da Hoodie, ‘Numbers’ with Roddy Ricch, Gunna, and London on da Track at 50 and ‘Me And My Guitar’ at 97. Sadly, that also translates to losses for ‘No Time To Die’ by Billie Eilish at 54 and ‘To Die For’ by Sam Smith at 61, as well as the album boost for ‘I Hope You’re Happy Now’ by Carly Pearce and Lee Brice fading to 75. Beyond that… ‘Suicidal’ by YNW Melly continues to fade at 66, ‘South Of The Border’ by Ed Sheeran, Camila Cabello and Cardi B continues to flop at 86, and ‘Ridin’ Roads’ by Dustin Lynch sputtered down to 96 - good.

Now I wish I could say our gains and returns were as promising… but sadly I’m just seeing a lot of missteps here. Why is Taylor Swift pushing ‘The Man’ as her next single returning at 92? How in the Nine Hells is ‘After Hours’ by The Weeknd moving so well at 20 - you’d think if he was boosting streaming anywhere it’d be on a song with a hook. Then there’s ‘Say So’ by Doja Cat at 33 - a song way too milquetoast to justify the comeback of its producer - and ‘Dior’ by the late Pop Smoke up to 30… predictable, even if the song is lousy. The only good news comes with ‘Dive Bar’ by Garth Brooks and Blake Shelton up to 78 - it’s not great but passable - and ‘Pu$$y Fairy’ by Jhene Aiko making a nice return to 88 before the album - I’m not too optimistic to expect a hit, but it’s still a nice song, I’ll take that? And since we actually did get a legit album bomb from YoungBoy Never Broke Again, the rules are in effect and the songs that did not crack the top 40 or wind up among the best or worst of this week are ‘Bat Man’ at 89, ‘Long RD’ at 85, ‘RIP Lil Phat’ at 80, ‘Knocked Off’ at 60, and ‘Red Eye’ at 47.

Now for our debuts, starting off with…

98. ‘Feel Me’ by Selena Gomez - really, Selena? You’re going with this over ‘Vulnerable’ or ‘A Sweeter Place’, instead picking a song that wasn’t even on the standard version of the album and has been floating around in leaks since 2017? And man, it sounds like a Selena Gomez cut lyrically from 2017, as basically with the same questioning give-and-take that characterized ‘It Ain’t Me’ but swapping out Kygo with a lot of otherwise rote wiry clicking and buzzy tropical rattles that don’t really showcase a lot of melody, at least before the smatter of flutes on the outro. Now for as underproduced as Rare was, I can probably still call this a net improvement, and Selena Gomez can certainly play the increasingly exasperated girl who just wants this guy to commit enough for the hookup when he’s seemingly miserable everywhere else, but am I the only one who can’t help but notice how the vocals feel really warbly and overproduced here, not helped by all the additional adlibs? I dunno, I see this being fine, but I don’t see it sticking around.

93. ‘Shake The Room’ by Pop Smoke ft. Quavo - okay, another cut from the late Pop Smoke, this time the obvious team-up with Quavo for maximizing streaming over faded vocal snippets and a sandy trap shudder - it’s got a smoky Travis Scott vibe and arguably production that’s better than most of what he’s been using recently. Shame that Pop Smoke’s abortive flow relies more on halting adlibs, the leaden beat, and a lot of brand names that don’t really elevate the track, especially with Quavo refocusing on the same sort of gunplay and flexing that Migos always brings - although his opening lines seem to imply that he’s trying to empty it by shooting everything up, which seems counterintuitive to a party flex. I dunno, it’s okay and probably better than ‘Dior’ on production alone, but it’s not a cut I see sticking around, especially posthumously.

87. ‘Filter’ by BTS - so here’s the thing with some of the BTS debuts this week: they’re not really driven by the whole boy band, instead choosing to place way more focus on one member, with this one landing on Jimin for a very plucky, clicking acoustic R&B vibe where I’m actively distracted by how cheap-sounding the percussion, especially given how limited the melody is. There’s no warmth to Jimin’s slick delivery or the guitars, and him trying to frame himself as the ‘filter’ for this girl - referencing Instagram - well, am I the only one who doesn’t quite think it’s as cute as it’s trying to be, that she present herself to the world through the vision and effects he provides, even with the flip that by the end it’s all the more fanservice highlighting how little he’d be without her? I dunno, it just feels frail and undercooked to me, and not one of the better songs from Map of the Soul: 7 - next!

84. ‘My Time’ by BTS - now this was actually one of the BTS solo cuts I liked more, leaning into Jungkook’s richer and deeper vocals off a little more focus on the guitar-accented atmosphere and richer vocal cushion around the hook… which makes it such a shame the percussion sounds so canned and clunky and has a really lumpy verse and prechorus groove. And for the most part I actually do like the lyrical sentiment, trying to go through the formative years of his time with BTS and how that’s left him further disconnected from others with whom he’s trying to build a connect even despite everything being too fast. Hell, I’d have been cool if they actualy took that guitar wailing throughout the outro and moved it a little closer to the front to emphasize an individual virtuoso moment, juxtapose against his sacrifices, but this is still better as it is. Not one of the best on the album, but solid enough.

71. ‘Moral of the Story’ by Ashe - okay, how to explain this: Ashe is a pop artist who recently got this charting thanks to it featuring in the Netflix movie To All The Boys: P.S. I Love You, which kicked off a Tiktok trend and here we are. And I’ll give her credit immediately for FINNEAS on production opposite the piano line that picks up a fair amount of elegant texture in the strings, which can flatter the more adult songwriting post-divorce where she’s stuck asking some hard questions and reconciling where she’s at now. The conversational writing style and Ashe’s extremely poised delivery has a very ‘musical theater’ style which I’m naturally inclined to like… which makes the leaden groove with the stuttering claps a bit of an odd fit, adding a roughness that makes you think you’re going to get a less refined vocal line, especially given the messy lack of solutions here. As it is… I dunno, it has polish, but it’s also feels fundamentally flawed trying to split organic rawness and theatricality. Not a bad tune, but I really do wish I liked it a lot more.

59. ‘Bad Bad’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - so one thing you’ll notice about this YoungBoy Never Broke Again project, beyond the abundance of watery guitar textures rammed slapdash against the cheap trap beats, is the overstuffed adlibs, and if there’s a song where it gets actively distracting in the worst possible place, it’s here and on the hook no less, which feels alarmingly choppy and messy but with no interesting content to really elevate it. That’s arguably why this song stands out as a dud to me - for all the by-the-numbers drug-addled gunplay on the verses, the hook would be where he’d turn up and deliver… and it doesn’t happen. And while I wouldn’t highlight it as the worst YoungBoy cut I’ve ever heard, it’s certainly album filler on a project that ran together way more than it should. Thankfully, next up we have…

58. ‘Fine By Time’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - so this is YoungBoy on more tropical production opposite the pianos as you can tell he’s trying to work that Young Thug impression that’s all over Still Flexin, Still Steppin - and with a more stable melody on the hook and a pretty sharp flow on the second verse that actually tries to reference the family drama and deaths of his friends that continues to colour his paranoia and angst and how his vices don’t really soothe his pain as he’ll likely wind up back in prison in fighting another case. Hell, even his songs don’t seem to trigger that broader connection with his audience, which a little more introspection might reveal comes with oversaturating the market, but if I’m looking for a standout from the album, it’s probably this - solid tune.

28. ‘Lil Top’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - so this was the highest charting song from the project with an even broader warping twang against the trap beat - at least until the guitar winds up stuck at the back of the mix - where YoungBoy takes more of a Lil Wayne approach to his nasal croak on the hook and proceeds to rant about his inability to be close to friends or family, a lot of drug abuse, and the rare third verse which is all the more gunplay. And at this point, I have to ask the hard question: YoungBoy Never Broke Again has been consistently racking up chart positions for years now, but the subject matter and tropes from him especially here are pretty stale, so if even he’s finding this material disconnected and repetitive - especially when you can tell he gets invigorated and makes better music whenever there’s a challenger or something different or interesting - why doesn’t he take a break to recharge and refine what he’s delivering? Because this song? Kind of catchy, but completely middle of the road and he can deliver better, and I guarantee I’ll wind up forgetting it… which for as many projects as that’s held true for YoungBoy might be the biggest problem of all.

4. ‘ON’ by BTS - so I’ll give this one thing: when you get past a lot of the overcompressed vocals and synth horns that sound painfully thin against all the attempts at synthesizing organ-inflected soul against the marching band snares that stumbles straight into trap in a really clunky way… the hook isn’t bad. Hell, if the vocals were competently layered I think BTS could have some forceful presence with this cut, one of the songs where they try to confront their darker, shadowy unconsciousness with a ‘bring it on’ attitude that they’re at least trying to face with some intensity. The larger problem is that this song isn’t dark or ominous so much as it is garish, overmixed, and trying to do way too much in its production, and that doesn’t flatter any of the individual members who seem to be fighting for air within this. In other words, this would not be the single I’d pull from that album that BTS is pushing - there’s better on the album, this is not it.

So believe it or not, I’m not going to say this week is bad so much as it was aggressively middle-of-the-road… and yeah, ‘ON’ by BTS is getting the worst, pretty much on bad production alone, although ‘Bad Bad’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again lives up to its title for the Dishonourable Mention. The best of the week… well, BTS is going to get that too with ‘My Time’, but it was close thanks to YoungBoy Never Broke Again and ‘Fine By Time’, which is just missing a little more content to put it over the top. Next week… album bomb will likely replace album bomb, because Lil Baby is coming… joy.