billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 5, 2022

…well, at least the Hot 100 is relatively stable, for now? Not gonna lie, it’s genuinely uncanny to focus on that when there’s so much else going on that might supersede it, but hey, someone has to be a cantankerous critic of a broken system in the desperate hope that something inevitably changes for the better, right?

Well anyway, the top ten, where for another week ‘We Don’t Talk About Bruno’ by the Encanto Cast is squatting on top, but its streaming margin is shrinking and even if sales had an uptick, the radio has never come around… and that means it’s vulnerable to ‘Heat Waves’ by Glass Animals at #2 - this was the week it took radio dominance and with stable streaming, it could well make a play for the top spot. And that means I’m placing my faith in an unlikely source: ‘abcdefu’ by GAYLE up to #3 - better sales overall, and while she lags on streaming and the radio, a lot of this becomes a margins game because she has stronger airplay traction; if there’s a time to make the push, it’s now. And that leaves ‘Easy On Me’ by Adele to slide to #4 - streaming is down, radio is falling off, it looks like folks are getting tired of this one… which unfortunately opens the door for ‘Super Gremlin’ by Kodak Black up to #5, which alongside solid streaming has had a really solid radio run; still lags enough so I don’t see it as a serious contender, but I would prefer we don’t give this any more. It moved over ‘Stay’ by Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber at #6, which actually wound up mostly stable, and that’s followed by ‘Ghost’ by Justin Bieber up to #7 where the radio traction might be slowing, but it still has momentum, certainly enough to get up over ‘Shivers’ by Ed Sheeran at #8, which is slipping into freefall. Now here’s a surprise: ‘Bad Habits’ by Ed Sheeran is actually back in the top 10 at #9… and it’s because the rock remix he made with Bring Me The Horizon went quasi-viral, stabilized radio, and drove a sudden sales revival! Sadly that version didn’t get credited on the Hot 100, but it’s still a way better remix than it has any right to be… maybe a sign you should push more of your rock-leaning songs, Ed Sheeran, ‘Tides’ is right there! Anyway, ‘Cold Heart (PNAU Remix)’ by Elton John and Dua Lipa scraped back into the top 10 because it’s dominant on sales and has enough streaming and radio to prop itself up; god, I’m ready for this song to just go away.

Speaking of that, our losers and dropouts, where in the latter category we saw a range of mid-level songs fall short, like ‘Chosen’ by Blxst, Tyga and Ty Dolla $ign, ‘For Tonight’ by Giveon, and ‘Whiskey And Rain’ by Michael Ray… can’t say I’m complaining about any of those. Meanwhile our losers consist of ‘Still D.R.E.’ by Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg only dropping off a bit to 43, debuts utterly collapsing like ‘The Joker And The Queen’ by Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift at 64, ‘Bussin’ by Nicki Minaj and Lil Baby at 72, and ‘Worst Day’ by Future at 73 - not complaining about these either - and, well, the rest. In the continued losers ‘Don’t Play That’ by King Von and 21 Savage fell to 86, ‘Freedom Was A Highway’ by Jimmie Allen and Brad Paisley hit 84, and ‘Do We Have A Problem?’ by Nicki Minaj and Lil Baby just cannot get any traction at 44, and outside of that… seem like songs that should be doing better, like ‘p power’ by Gunna ft. Drake at 75 and even ‘Oh My God’ by Adele at 45 - I honestly thought that one was locked in for a major radio run that just hasn’t happened, weird.

Now for our returns and gains… only one of the former, being ‘When I’m Gone’ by Alesso and Katy Perry at 90 - can’t say I have a lot of faith that this’ll stick around - but our gains are actually pretty interesting. For starters we had the expected seasonal Nashville radio push, so ‘One Mississippi’ by Kane Brown went to 36, ‘Doin’ This’ by Luke Combs at 49, and ‘Never Say Never’ by Cole Swindell and Lainey Wilson saw a big rebound to 55 - and on that note, ‘Fingers Crossed’ by Lauren Spencer-Smith turned things around at 39, which I think I’ll chalk up to radio here too. But when you dig into the rest… well, ‘Numb Little Bug’ by Em Beihold is catching a little attention at 68 with sales help, and ‘Light Switch’ by Charlie Puth is on a radio run to 29, but why is ‘You Right’ by Doja Cat and The Weeknd getting another run with radio that just hasn’t ended at 33? I thought we were all moving on to ‘Woman’ and ‘Get Into It (Yuh)’, why is anyone still paying attention to this?

Anyway, we only have a neat half dozen new arrivals this week, so let’s get things started with…

100. ‘Give Heaven Some Hell’ by HARDY - you know, there’s a part of me that’s trying to just live and let live with HARDY as a figure in modern country, predominantly as a writer and producer but these days occasionally showing up on songs of his own. But there is something about him that rubs me the wrong way - maybe it’s how he calls his albums ‘Hixtapes’ or how so much of his career seems built on savvy connections and marketing, or for how many good songs he’s written he’s gotten a bunch more that are outright crap… so him making this heartfelt tribute to an old friend who has passed to ‘go give heaven some hell’ is trying to inspire the same pathos that a song like Cole Swindell’s ‘You Should Be Here’ had six years ago. And… I mean, he’s trying, but something isn’t clicking; the guitars are mostly warm but there’s no real bass presence, the drums sound weird with that really inconsistent cymbal, and then there’s HARDY who just completely struggles to convey any personality, especially as a lot of the lyrics feel like only a slight reinterpretation of the same stock checklist cliches he crams in every other song. I just don’t get that personal connection with this one - it might be okay, but not something that pulls me back.

95. ‘Pray’ by Jessie Murph - okay, we’re doing another round of the Jessie Murph thing… really? I last covered her on Billboard BREAKDOWN back in December with a dated, clunky song that wasn’t all that good, so I had rock bottom expectations for this… which was appropriate, because this is also pretty bad. And it’s kind of startling how many things just don’t seem to work - the production once again feels dated in its ponderous, dour vibe, and the wispy percussion suddenly ramping up the tempo after the piano-driven first verse is a mood shift that doesn’t help the atmosphere, and when your singer once again sounds like the cross between Bebe Rexha and Tones & I and frequently clips the edge of the mix, you need all the help you can get! What’s worse is that the writing once again feels rough, and reminds me that if her sonic comparisons didn’t have unearned confidence I’d probably tolerate them even less, because Jessie Murph’s wallow in angst is a much worse look, starting off on the bad relationship front before it spirals into depression, alcohol abuse, and a strained parental relationship where the faster tempo requires delivery that doesn’t match it well. And if I’m going to nitpick, you’re setting yourself up for undue confusion with the mixed target of ‘you’ on the hook, where it starts universal and then is directed at someone and it makes a messy song even clunkier. So yeah, another swing and a miss, this also isn’t any good - next!

91. ‘Poppin’ by Yeat - I’ve seen some buzz circulating around this guy, an Oregon rapper who dropped his first album in September of last year after a string of mixtapes to then follow with another project in February of this year… and wow, this isn’t good either. For one, why does Yeat sound a fusion of Future and any interchangeable Travis Scott wannabe wallowing in even deeper autotune, and instead of having a strong groove behind him, we’ve got a buzzed out trap clunker where the bass is swallowed in texture, the hi-hat is rickety with no punch, and the gloss of the watery melody can barely claw free. And given that his content is at this point stock drug abuse, shooting people, and flexing with four bars passing for the one verse between the hooks… yeah, somehow I get the impression I’m not missing much from this at all. Speaking of which…

61. ‘Banking On Me’ by Gunna - so let me get this straight: Gunna originally had this song on the deluxe version of his album, pulled it, and then re-released it for Valentine’s Day… and I’m stuck with the question who the hell listens to Gunna for that holiday, but apparently enough people do because this charted. And… you know, I kind of get it, because this is actually alright in cultivating its vibe? The supple bass supporting the muted piano before Metro Boomin brings in the trap beat, Gunna’s lack of more aggressive personality is a surprisingly decent fit for something low key, and even if the entire song is exaggerated luxury porn and graphic sex and Gunna kind of shows his complete limitations as a frontman by the end of the hook when he just kind of trails off, for an audience that is more receptive, I can see them backing this. Granted, it’s hard to ignore how much his vocal timbre just starts resembling Drake on songs like this, and he’s the catalog to do this better, but if it has to be from Gunna, I don’t mind this.

42. ‘Ahhh Ha’ by Lil Durk - so I genuinely don’t want to talk about the Lil Durk and YoungBoy Never Broke Again beef anymore - it’s gotten people killed, more closer to Lil Durk for whom I get the impression he’d rather be doing anything else than touching this as it’s dragging him back to the street level violence he’s trying to escape, despite an audience of teenage white boys who are living vicariously through this entertainment with little comprehension of the real human toll it’s taking… which is likely why this charted in the first place, and YoungBoy has already fired back. And you know it’s a bad situation when Durk starts the song trying to create as much plausible deniability as possible before he snaps back not just calling YoungBoy’s bluff in his attacks as Durk can make it very real and the hangers-on who are trying to flex with their violent tendencies on Instagram, but also calling out the trolls and stans who keep throwing the late King Von’s name into all of this, because they’re corny-ass, perpetually online dipshits who have never been checked in their lives before; and yes, Akademiks belongs in that pile as well. That said, this is also one of those cases where bringing more attention to it only agitates the problem, and Durk outright admits he’s going against the advice of his peers like NLE Choppa by engaging, and then he references YoungBoy’s baby mom, who was in a relationship with King Von at one point and now has an OnlyFans based off that notoriety; I’ve said before there’s no rules in beef, and it’s not like YoungBoy hasn’t gone further here, but people are already dead in the wake of this beef, and I get the feeling that Lil Durk will have to be the bigger man and walk away because YoungBoy’s paranoid ass has nothing else and he’s on a ‘take everyone with me’ downward spiral, especially as the police will not hesitate to get involved. This helps nobody, and even if the gothic touches in the piano and Chicago drill and trap percussion goes pretty hard, sometimes you need to see the bigger picture. Both of these rappers have more potential than wasting it in this, and while that’ll leave money on the table as fans egg this on, I’m not endorsing this.

18. ‘Nail Tech’ by Jack Harlow - there’s a part of me that’s legit pleased that I was relatively on board with Jack Harlow earlier than most; to me he’s a rapper with a high floor and a low ceiling, but hey, solid technical competence with swagger and decent taste will get you somewhere, so to see him debut this high was interesting to me… and you know, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that Harlow delivered pretty much exactly what I was expecting, but here we have a good track, but not exactly a great one. The horn loop that gradually fleshes out with hints of strings and keys, but what’ll throw people will probably be some of the squishy effects around the percussion which comes in with hints of drill, with the heavier bass coming in on later beats that does give the song a different rhythm. And that translates to the content too, where you’d think it’d just be a flex or a ‘more money, more problems’ song, but I like the details where Jack Harlow shoves it off-script, flexing health and sobriety and trying to stay down to earth, and noticing folks are flashing money they don’t actually have, a lane he wants to avoid. It’s still braggadocious to a fault - that line about not cumming from head but daring her to try, I go back on the fence on whether that was idiotic or inspired - and he’ll blow off those who are trying to hop on his bandwagon now, but I dig the sly provocations that generally feel more clever than he probably has to be; maybe not quite humble but definitely canny and self-aware. So yeah, I wound up liking this a solid bit…

And after this week, it’s pretty much running away with the best here - worst is going to ‘Pray’ by Jessie Murph, but I’m tempted to give it to Lil Durk on principle; if the production was a little worse, I would have. Next week… again, things might be a bit more slow or reasonable, but maybe Avril Lavigne might get ‘Bite Me’ to chart? We can hope…