billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 4, 2023

You know, I said a month or so ago that 2023 appears to be a slower year, at least on the charts, and I got some pushback by pointing at all the new debuts and a bit of a chart shakeup when Miley took over the top spot. But since then, I think my thesis is holding true, because not only does the top 10 feel somewhat stagnant, the upper echelon of the Hot 100 isn’t really moving, the new arrivals aren’t seeing much penetration, and the last album bomb we had was in December! Yes, I know that Morgan Wallen is coming, might as well savor this while we can, and we’re likely to get a new #1 just next week, but if you’ve been picking up that I’ve been underwhelmed by the Hot 100 in 2023 thus far… well, it’s because I am, no way around it.

And I think the top 10 is a major culprit in that, because ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus is still on top. It may be falling back on streaming but when the radio keeps dumping more spins on it to compensate, the margins are on the downswing, but beating it will be a tall order. And I don’t think ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA is the answer at #2 - yes, she’s got better streams and the radio has tangible traction, but she’s not beating that margin and that has to be frustrating. Then we have ‘Boy’s A Liar Pt. 2’ by PinkPantheress and Ice Spice, which yes, rules streaming right now, but this is where slow radio growth is really going to hurt it because I honestly don’t see this song getting the massive industry push to seize the top spot, even if I do think it’s impressive it beat out ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd down to #4 because despite a tangible push on streaming and the radio, the margins might just be too wide. Then we have ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen at #5 - apparently it’s been shipped to pop radio instead of country, so it’ll be interesting to see if that drives traction alongside its massive streams and great sales, but the important story comes with ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd up to #6. This is projected to go to #1 next week, or at the very least be competitive for it with the Ariana Grande remix - I’m a little skeptical given the instabilities on radio and how the streaming has never really been there, but hey, I’d like to be surprised for once here, especially as it rolled past ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras at #7, which is now in full retreat across the board. Then there’s ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift holding at #8 - which has enough margins to lose while not seeing impact on its position, which seems to be a similar case for ‘CUFF IT’ by Beyonce at #9 which wavered all week and ‘I’m Good (Blue)’ by David Guetta and Bebe Rexha at #10 which is bleeding airplay, just not fast enough.

Speaking of which, losers and dropouts, where honestly, there’s not much notable at all - all the Rihanna returns from last week, but really, it indicates how little staying power so many songs have had this year. Granted, our losers are kind of a mess here - off the debut, ‘Love You Anyway’ by Luke Combs took a respectable dip to 38 and ‘Lost’ by Linkin Park fell sharply to 74, and again, Rihanna saw her bounce fade for ‘Lift Me Up’ going to 52. Then we had a bunch of continued losers - ‘X Si Volvemos’ by Karol G and Romeo Santos to 91 - although this might get a bounce next week thanks to her album - ‘Everything I Love’ by Morgan Wallen to 80, and ‘Shut Up My Moms Calling’ by Hotel Ugly continuing to lose its virality at 98. The rest… ‘Blind’ by SZA to 93, ‘La Jumpa’ by Arcangel and Bad Bunny at 97, and ‘OMG’ by NewJeans dipping to 89… outside of ‘Blind’ being an album bomb remnant, all of these seemed to sputter out before getting any traction at all.

So okay, what is breaking through? Well, in our returns ‘Trance’ by Metro Boomin, Travis Scott and Young Thug is back at 76 for some reason - apparently it may be having a TikTok moment - and I just don’t know what to make of our gains. Alright, ‘Next Thing You Know’ by Jordan Davis got a nice bump to 67, and I guess if ‘Painting Pictures’ by Superstar Pride is going viral it makes sense that it rocketed up to 34 off the debut, even if I’m not convinced at its staying power when you go beyond even the basics of polish that it has. But then there’s ‘Dawns’ by Zach Bryan and Maggie Rogers rebounding to 43 - apparently it’s now catching fire on streaming, and it’s about the last thing I could have expected here. Granted, everything with Zach Bryan’s career falls in that territory, but ‘Dawns’ is even strange for him, I’m gonna be very curious how far this goes!

But now onto a pretty healthy list of new arrivals - I have no real faith in any of them lasting, but hey, let’s get it started with…

99. ‘Gold’ by Dierks Bentley - so Dierks Bentley put out an album - it’s his first in five years not counting the stint with Hot Country Knights, and if it’s interesting I’ll probably cover it. And hell, I was happy to see a single cross over even if it was released properly last summer… but I can’t say I’m that impressed with it. Yeah, it sounds warm and organic with the acoustics and crisp live drums, but even well-blended the handclap sounds fake and it’s hard to escape the feeling of Bentley going through the motions with a very obvious commercial cash-in. Yes, he’s certainly made worse versions of this, but he doesn’t sound as engaged and the broad sentiments of learning to cherish where you are… it feels a little basic from him, I know he can write more interesting material. I’m not going to complain if this comes on country radio, but I’m also going to forget this in record time.

96. ‘Slut Me Out’ by NLE Choppa - when the folks I know who tolerate NLE Choppa were saying this was really bad, I had concerns - hell, with that title I had concerns, this could go any number of disastrous ways, especially given this song first dropped nearly a year ago… and wow, this thing is bad in a way we don’t get very often! I’ll give the production some credit for being better balanced than you’d expect with the weird whir behind the flimsy hi-hat and snare and bubbling bass, but that’s ruined by NLE Choppa’s painfully clunky flow and a string of sex references where it sounds like he needs sex explained to him! What’s so bizarre is that it has the feel of someone who wants to come across as dominant in the bedroom, but has no context how to sell it well: putting aside how the hook is literally ‘slut me out’ - which might be the worst possible way to describe someone going above and beyond in the bedroom, because it sounds like you’re getting pimped - he tells the girl to bring a friend because she’s not ‘enoughie’. He tells her to hush it like some kidney beans, and to ‘suck my balls, come chickpea me’ - apparently he’s gone vegan and really wants to make a thing because he also has the line that his ‘nut taste like sugar gravy’. And then we get the lines about putting her ass in his face until he gets pinkeye, and that he doesn’t come quick because he controls his bladder - glad to know NLE Choppa doesn’t understand biology either - and I start thinking this is a joke, but he doesn’t have the delivery or flair to make this like ‘WAP’. Honestly, it makes way too much sense when you realize that he first leaked this song back in 2021… on a stream with Adin Ross - this is hilariously bad, for everyone’s sake let’s move on.

94. ‘TRUSTFALL’ by P!nk - I heard the P!nk album last week… there is absolutely no point in me reviewing it. And that’s heartbreaking, because I really wanted to say she went back towards pop rock or had something interesting or memorable to offer, but with the title track here… it’s endemic of the entire album, even if I think the song is one of the better ones. Yeah, P!nk’s a great singer and she’s going to commit, but she’s not a singer with the sleek tightness to compliment that razor tight pulsating low synth from Fred again - she’s more soulful with a warmer tone, and it sounds like she’s fighting through effects to drive into a hook I could hear myself liking with the right singer, probably because it was cowritten by one of the guys from Snow Patrol! And the sentiment isn’t bad - hoping to take the leap with a partner, place that trust in each other - but with so much tension in the synth line I feel like we’re missing a proper go-for-broke explosion; a guitar with some actual swell and crunch tends to help with that! It’s frustrating because again, I don’t think this is a bad composition or idea, but it doesn’t flatter P!nk the way it should, and whoever at RCA keeps telling her that this Maroon 5-ification of her career is a good idea needs to be fired into the sun - next!

83. ‘Lottery’ by Latto ft. LU KALA - Is this the second song where Latto is leaning on casino elements in her music - it was all over ‘Big Energy’ and felt weird there, so I guess she’s making it explicit this time; guess when Dr. Luke finds an idea he sticks to it, in this case a pretty brazen riff on Doja Cat’s ‘Say So’. And thus it’s awkward when I say that despite the painfully gimmicky nature of the song - Latto projects a shocking lack of strength and personality when it comes to the showgirl vibe going on here, down to using her own name as a pun that’s already been done before - this might an improvement. Canadian-Congolese singer LU KALA’s delivery on the hook is strident, and minus the obnoxious stiffness of ‘Big Energy’, the light nu-disco groove here is considerably better, even if you can tell that if Dr. Luke could have gotten Dua Lipa for the hook, he would have. It feels like a better quality of ripoff, but it feels antiseptic and hollow because Latto can’t sell any sexiness in the same way Doja Cat or Megan or even Dua Lipa can. Not a total dud - I have a strange feeling it’s going to be a radio smash - but I don’t exactly think that’s a good thing.

75. ‘ceilings’ by Lizzy McAlpine - whereas this was the sort of welcome surprise I was all about - I was expecting a breakthrough for Lizzy McAlpine after getting into her last year and noticing her remarkably solid connections, but this was not the track I was expecting for a crossover… and I have to admit, is not one of my favourites from the album. Yeah, the gentle acoustics, strings, and subtle backing vocals work for this sort of yearning where she daydreams a homespun romantic connection where by the outro she knows none of it is real and it’s pretty damn sad, especially with the firmer groove to support it, but I feel like it’s missing a proper bridge to really put it over the top; this is no ‘doomsday’ or ‘all my ghosts’, and there’s a part of me suspicious that she is being pitched as a more accessible Phoebe Bridgers. And I know that’s not fair - McAlpine has great, sincere pop instincts and a knack for theatricality that creates her own lane, and ‘ceilings’ is a really good song… but if there’s anything you take from this, please go check out her album from last year, there’s so much better there.

69. ‘No Time Wasted’ by Polo G & Future - I was saying not too long ago that I was hoping Polo G would deliver some quality in 2023 - he made my favourite hit of 2021, I was worried about oversaturation, but he’s had his pop crossover moments and has some serious momentum, and even if I didn’t expect anything from Future, I hoped this would be good. And… yeah, I actually think this is really solid - I like how Polo G makes a pretty explicit parallel between football and gang culture amidst the gunplay and reassuring his audience that the album with Southside is coming; I could wish for a little more detail, make it a bit more inflammatory, but it’s a start. And while I wish Future was more on topic, he sounded more engaged with his flow than I expected - he sounded like he cared! If I have more complaints, they might come in the production - the faded strings behind the trap percussion is good, but I think the tempo could afford to be a little faster, or maybe just one more verse from Polo G to really drive it home, take it to that next level. As it is… yeah, I can get behind this, good song.

63. ‘Heaven’ by Niall Horan - I think a lot of people are expecting me to be really excited about this - Niall Horan’s Heartbreak Weather was one of my favourite albums of 2020, I think the promotion of that album stateside was outright criminal even if he got screwed over by pandemic timing, but hey, it looks like they’re pulling out all the stops for him now, and I really wanted to like this. And… look, there’s parts of this I dig - the rattling bass groove and heavier percussion sounds great against the cushion of organ and richer backing vocals, and Niall can sell a love song like this in his sleep, where the dramatic imagery does match how big this song is swinging. But let’s be real, this is a Harry Styles song - a pretty good Harry Styles song with the sort of glam and bombast I wanted on Harry’s House, but that’s not Niall’s lane - he’s cooler, he’s a little more sophisticated and slick, his relationship songs are a lot messier and more interesting. I’m hoping this is a one-off - it’s not like ‘Nice To Meet Ya’ was emblematic of Heartbreak Weather, his singles choice has always been messy, which reflects questionable management - but as it is… it’s fine, but I know he can do better.

62. ‘Watch This (ARIZONATEARS Pluggnb Remix)’ by Lil Uzi Vert - I know there are folks excited for a new Lil Uzi Vert album, but I remember the Eternal Atake hype cycle that lasted over the course of years - I’m not the biggest fan of them anyway, and their camp has a really bad habit of leaking unfinished or unpolished material. Hence we have this cut, which is a Soundcloud remix based off of a leak that happened almost a year ago… and yep, it certainly sounds like it, when the bass is so oppressively loud over the hook that it completely drowns the vocals, which doesn’t fit with the glossier piano, synths and warbling. What’s exasperating is that if this was mixed properly, I’d probably be okay with it - Lil Uzi Vert is doing a Migos impression with their flow, and the content is utterly disposable, but the flow is tight and I think the hook is actually okay. But thanks to ‘XO Tour Llif3’ going viral six years ago - you feel old now - someone in Uzi’s camp probably thinks this will work… which is deeply depressing, because there’s a version of this that has the potential to be decent.

51. ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii - one of the weird things about the XXL Freshmen list is that when they pick up-and-comers who don’t already have traction in certain spheres they can slip out of view very quickly. So I’ll admit I didn’t recognize Toosii - born in New York, moved to North Carolina, dropped his debut album in 2020, made the freshman list in 2021 and got signed to Capitol, and now it looks like he’s got a major label push… and wow, someone wants the clean and ‘accessible’ version of Rod Wave really badly. It feels obvious - the chipmunked crooning to open things up, the piano and gentle guitars, the overweight percussion, just with more reverb and compression around Toosii’s vocals as he’s trying to croon to some girl and sing her ‘favourite song’. He’s clearly trying to be more romantic and move away from hypermasculine posturing, which isn’t a bad thing… but I’m not sure there’s enough detail or flavour here to differentiate him from artists like Rod Wave that have way more soul and power. I’m just kind of underwhelmed by this - not bad, not really great either.

49. ‘Hope’ by NF - …I mean, I thought we were past the NF experience years ago - I’ve called him the Christian version of Logic, I’ve been generally underwhelmed by all the bombast with so many filler bars to back it up, but he’s charting more than Logic is these days, with this being his first new song since 2021. And… oh boy, for a song that’s all about hope and turning your back on depression and darker thoughts, especially given that he and his wife had a baby, I’m struggling to buy into this. I don’t deny that NF and his producers are trying to make this feel huge and amp up that quest with huge cinematic, wildly overcompressed production and his fast flows - and there’s still a weird, theatrical vibe to touches of his production especially in the pianos and NF’s weak singing that is so out of place - but it’s the same problem, for all of his inspirational posturing none of it feels that personal, especially lacking in a lot of distinctive detail; I appreciate wanting to be a better father than his parents, but I’d like to get a little more than that! But honestly the better comparison might be Eminem’s Recovery, where rage is trying to fill in for inspirational fervour… but at least Eminem structured songs like jock jams. I don’t think this is anything close to NF’s worst, but for a song trying to land so much impact… I’m sorry, this doesn’t work.

And that was our week… man, all over the damn place here, although I think I’m more positive than some folks might expect. Worst is obvious: ‘Slut Me Out’ by NLE Choppa… and I don’t really have an appropriate Dishonourable Mention, so let’s go with the best of the week - ‘ceilings’ by Lizzy McAlpine - and two Honourable Mentions, ‘Heaven’ by Niall Horan and ‘No Time Wasted’ by Polo G and Future - yeah, I’m going there. Next week… we’ll probably see some impact from Don Toliver, Karol G, and Yeat, so suffice to say expectations are mixed, stay tuned!