billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 28, 2020

Okay, let me be very blunt here: we’re getting a pretty massive album bomb from The Weeknd next week, and while we did get a sizable one from Lil Uzi Vert - again - this week, it’s manageable, mostly thanks to being stuck below the top 40. But since most of the new Lil Uzi Vert songs here are just replacing ones from last week, I’m more inclined to direct attention at the weirder undercurrents of the Hot 100, because there are reason why certain songs are surviving or even thriving - and how everyone putting all their money on streaming is missing the bigger picture.

But we’re going to start with the top 10 and ‘The Box’ by Roddy Ricch still on top… but for how much longer? Yes, huge YouTube still with strong on-demand streaming, but its radio is slowly collapsing and as I predicted, a real threat is surging right now: ‘Blinding Lights’ by The Weeknd up to #2. Yeah, the streaming isn’t there yet this week, but it rules sales and it still has consistent radio growth; when you factor in the streaming boost of an album bomb coming, this could well go to #1, and that might blunt ‘The Box’s momentum long-term. And that opens up ‘Don’t Start Now’ by Dua Lipa for a run, as she rules airplay, has good sales, and could well make a run on streaming herself depending on how well Future Nostalgia picks up this Friday - the margins are tougher, but it’s possible. All of this has left ‘Life Is Good’ by Future ft. Drake sliding to #4, which hit a hard cap on the radio and with as much streaming disruption has not exactly seemed stable. What has been stable is ‘Circles’ by Post Malone at #5, which has been wavering on the radio all week even as sales are down. And along that line we have ‘ROXANNE’ by Arizona Zervas at #6, where even as its radio is in freefall, it had a good streaming week and picked up a spot… even though that’s probably more linked to Lil Uzi Vert’s songs falling out of the top ten. Case in point, breaking into the top 10 for the first time: ‘Adore You’ by Harry Styles at #7, mostly because the radio adores it. And I can unfortunately say something similar for ‘Intentions’ by Justin Bieber and Quavo up to #8, except it’s got traction in all channels - wonderful. Hell, we even saw recoveries of ‘Someone You Loved’ by Lewis Capaldi to #9 - still losing radio but it at least has it - and ‘everything i wanted’ by Billie Eilish at #10, for much of the same reason - we’ll come back to why that’s relevant very soon.

This takes us to the losers and dropouts… and there’s honestly not much of a story here, especially considering our only dropout of size is ‘Juicy’ by Doja Cat and Tyga, which’ll likely be just on the cusp of missing the year-end list. But the majority of our losers… well, while Lil Uzi Vert lost a lot of songs, he kept a lot around too, with ‘Baby Pluto’ at 27, ‘P2’ at 37, ‘That Way’ at 41, ‘Lo Mein’ at 42, ‘Silly Watch’ at 52, ‘Homecoming’ at 82, ‘Futsal Shuffle 2020’ at 94, and ‘Prices’ at 95. But he’s not the only one who saw debuts from last week plummet, like ‘I Love Me’ by Demi Lovato at 43 and ‘B.S.’ by Jhene Aiko and H.E.R. at 57, which also translated to ‘Pu$$y Fairy’s slide to 61 and ‘B.I.T.C.H.’ by Megan Thee Stallion skidding back to 79. The rest… a lot of continued losers on their way out, like ‘Si Veo A Tu Mama’, ‘La Dificil’ and ‘Vete’ by Bad Bunny down to 70, 82, and 92 respectively, and then for Lil Baby we saw ‘Heatin Up’ with Gunna at 73 and ‘Emotionally Scarred’ at 85. And while ‘Go Stupid’ by Polo G ft. NLE Choppa and Stunna 4 Vegas also slid to 96, the biggest story might be the total collapse of ‘Yummy’ by Justin Bieber to 78 - it’ll probably wind up with just enough points to make a year-end list, but this is disastrous in a way I’ll admit I did not expect.

But now we’re getting to the bigger story - not the returns, which outside of ‘Suicidal’ by YNW Melly getting a big remix with the late Juice WRLD to spike to 20, we just got ‘Before You Go’ by Lewis Capaldi at 97, ‘Come Thru’ by Summer Walker and Usher at 99, and ‘Make No Sense’ by Youngboy Never Broke Again at 100 - but the gains, and this is where we have to talk about radio. And it’s almost disgustingly obvious and I’ve been talking about it for two years now: yeah, big streaming debuts can lead to album bombs, but they rarely last, which means songs that have existing radio architecture behind them gain sustainability… and the songs that do are rarely interesting or take much in the way of chances. Yeah, you saw rebounds from losses last week with ‘BOP’ by DaBaby up to 24, ‘High Fashion’ by Roddy Ricch and Mustard to 33, ‘Tusa’ by Karol G and Nicki Minaj at 64, ‘Grace’ by Lil Baby and 42 Dugg at 75, and ‘To Die For’ by Sam Smith at 84, but they’re the exceptions, as is ‘Oprah’s Bank Account’ by Lil Yachty, Drake and DaBaby riding starpower and weirdness to 55. No, I’m looking at the surge of Nashville country songs: ‘I Hope You’re Happy Now’ by Carly Pearce and Lee Brice to 81, ‘I Wish Grandpas Never Die’ by Riley Green to 69, ‘We Back’ by Jason Aldean at 67, ‘Catch’ by Brett Yong at 65, ‘Slow Dance In a Parking Lot’ by Jordan Davis at 59, ‘Chasing You’ by Morgan Wallen at 58, ‘More Hearts Than Mine’ by Ingrid Andress at 56, ‘Nobody But You’ by Blake Shelton and Gwen Stefani at 53, ‘What She Wants Tonight’ by Luke Bryan at 49, ‘I Hope’ by Gabby Barrett at 36, and most bizarrely, ‘Homemade’ by Jake Owen continuing up to 39! And the rest… ‘Falling’ by Trevor Daniel might have just had a good week at 29 and ‘Blueberry Faygo’ by Lil Mosey is going to become a streaming behemoth at 38 - probably can say something similar for ‘WHAT'S POPPPIN’ by Jack Harlow at 48 - but ‘RITMO’ by The Black Eyed Peas and J Balvin is relying on radio, as is ‘Slide’ by H.E.R. and YG at 47, and ‘Heart On Ice’ at 40, and ‘BEST ON EARTH’ by Russ and BIA at 46 - yes, I’m shocked at that one too. I have to assume it’s at least partially responsible for ‘Sunday Best’ by Surfaces rebounding to 74, but you want to see the biggest proof? The fact that ‘No Guidance’ by Chris Brown ft. Drake is still here - and up to 32! But now to the main event that thankfully feels smaller, our Luv vs. The World 2 album bomb, which are the songs that fall below the top 40 and are neither best nor worst: ‘Money Spread’ with Young Nudy at 89, ‘Got The Guap’ with Young Thug at 87, ‘Come This Way’ at 83, ‘No Auto’ with Lil Durk at 76, ‘Leaders’ with NAV at 72, ‘Trap This Way (This Way)’ at 68, ‘I Can Show You’ at 66, ‘Wassup’ with Future at 54, and a special shoutout to ‘Moon Relate’ at 62 for just being absolutely insane.

But now to the rest of our new arrivals, starting with…

98. ‘Savage’ by Megan Thee Stallion - am I the only one who is now thoroughly convinced Megan’s label doesn’t have a clue what they’re doing? You shot the video for ‘Captain Hook’ and you were moving on it… but because this one caught more on TikTok you’re running with this instead to chart? How is this not knowledge you already had going into the album release cycle, or maybe put off shooting the video until you’ve decided on your single choices based on streaming reception? At least she picked one of the better cuts, with Megan’s blunt exasperation and sharper flow against the flat minimalist melody and slivers of percussion off the bass rumble, even if the content is also pretty by the numbers in its flexing - not a good idea to call out your beef as boring, because that attitude can translate to your song. But otherwise… eh, it’s good, I’ll take it.

91. ‘Beer Can’t Fix’ by Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - I literally forgot that this song existed when I covered Center Point Road last year, even though it picked up Jon Pardi for a more neotraditional touch with the touches of pedal steel… shame that it’s only playing into a breezy drinking/hookup song where Jon Pardi just sounds kind of awkward opposite the tropical drums, drum machine, whistle, and even a splash of horns. And it’s not like Rhett or Pardi have a ton of chemistry or interplay on this either - it’s a weirdly flat and lethargic song, undoubtedly timed to get big in the summer but right now… Yeah, if only beer could fix this, beyond the song just being forgettable.

90. ‘Cardigan’ by Don Toliver - I’ve heard interesting things about that new Don Toliver album that dropped, but given ‘No Idea’ didn’t really win me over I wasn’t expecting a lot of out of this… which might have been the right idea, given that it’s really a few extended hooks without much of a verse at all against a swampy groove with piano that can never coalesce into a stable tune. And even if I might be able to appreciate the atmosphere, Don Toliver’s warble doesn’t really flatter the by-the-numbers brand name flexing, gunplay, and an utterly incoherent narrative, where apparently someone is on his back and yet he’s chasing a friend of theirs, and he’s trying to let that someone down easy. It’s messy in a way that’s not even interesting, because it’s not like Don Toliver is a force of unique personality besides being more nasal, and while I can’t really call it terrible because it has a hook, it’s certainly mediocre - next!

88. ‘Supalonely’ by BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - okay, credit to good timing for a song with this title - although more because it blew up thanks to TikTok given the song dropped in November of last year - but the uncanny thing is that it’s not really a sad song. No, it’s the jaunty thing with some really ugly grainy percussion and limp attempts at funk in the bass with BENEE and Gus Dapperton slurring through Autotune taking the piss out of sadness with some degree of deflective irony. And yet while I’d agree that some of the super-serious sad-pop anthems are kind of garish and ridiculous and the self-awareness can help, songs like this are just as performative as those sadder moments, and there doesn’t seem to be a core to the affectation. There doesn’t seem to be a core of sincerity here or anything revealing about the performers, which just leads to this weird feeling of cheapness throughout the song - a parody, but one that’s not hitting. So yeah, I don’t like this - maybe it’s a generational thing and I’m missing the catharsis somewhere, but yeah, this ain’t it.

86. ‘Does To Me’ by Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - well, I was wondering when this would finally start charting, arguably one of the best songs from Luke Combs last album and the sort of collaboration that honestly makes way too much sense, where both men play into the hyper-detailed sadsack vibe where they can highlight the few places they do excel and even if nobody else cares, it matters to them, Luke Combs the middle-of-the-road journeyman and Eric Church the rugged vinyl nerd. And I like that on the second verse, Combs highlights one of those areas is integrity and camaraderie - it’s a small detail, but a good one. I do wish the lead guitar tone was a little warmer in its melody; it’s ever so slightly wonky and that kind of throws me off a bit, but when you have an otherwise pretty solid neotraditional tone, this is really damn good - happy it’s here, let’s hope it actually survive and stick around.

71. ‘death bed’ by Powfu ft. beabaddoobee - again, a bit of a fortuitous title in a bleak time that also went viral on Tiktok, but it has a slightly weirder story. It caught fire on Soundcloud last year, but since Powfu didn’t clear the beabaddoobee sample from 2017 immediately, it took about a year to hit streaming sites proper. And I have to wonder if that was worth it, because the sample is just chipmunked from the original acoustic version off a watery ramshackle beat where Powfu walks through what could be just a breakup… or him dying in that bed, especially going off the first verse. And… I see how this could work, but the melodrama feels kind of mawkish and weirdly flat - it reminds me of those puppy compilations you see on YouTube where the postscript is, ‘oh, we had to put her down’, it’s a jarring tonal mix that doesn’t quite coalesce. Again, I appreciate the sincerity here, but Powfu’s delivery and content doesn’t really sell it that well, especially with the implication it all could be about far less… so yeah, I’m not quite on-board here either.

60. ‘Strawberry Peels’ by Lil Uzi Vert ft. Young Thug & Gunna - okay, first off putting Young Thug and Gunna as guests on the same song is redundant - Gunna adds nothing to this beyond saying this girl is going to suck his dick until snot comes out her nose; that’s disgusting. But it’s not like Thugger’s doing better in saying he’s fucking girls straight off the boat from Isreal, and then repeating ‘strawberry peels’ until your skull cracks… and then we have Uzi saying his girl is spoiled like old milk, that he’s putting his dick in her gut ‘for the guilt’, and that this girl is giving him brain, ‘that’s that Urkel and chill’. All of that combined with a song that’s not even two minutes long and one that doesn’t have anything close to a melody in its squonking flatness… it’s not the worst Uzi song I’ve heard these past two weeks, but it’s close. And on that topic…

45. ‘Lotus’ by Lil Uzi Vert - see, everything I described about the last song is more obviously bad, but ‘Lotus’ touches a different nerve for me: mostly because his nasal, mumbling braying that’s not even on beat is just insufferable, especially when he’s backing up the same brand name porn and shallow flexing that doesn’t really work well when it feels this sour. Again, I said this last week, Uzi songs work when they’re ridiculous, over-the-top, and fun - when you have that flat synth tone and cheap drum machine here, this is none of the above. Next!

26. ‘Yessirskiii’ by Lil Uzi Vert & 21 Savage - look, I’d like to stick up for 21 Savage here - his flat ruthlesness can at least be distinctive at points and his flex can be intimidating… even if by the third verse here he’s fucking your girl and comparing himself to the Taliban. But luxury rap in any form is not his strong suit and that becomes true very quickly here, especially opposite Uzi stealing your fiancee, pimping your girl, and then shooting people as he drives around. The most I can stick up for here is the faded loop behind the cheap drum machine, but that doesn’t even save much, especially when Uzi can barely stay on that beat to save his life. Thoroughly mediocre at best, next!

19. ‘Bean (Kobe)’ by Lil Uzi Vert ft. Chief Keef - you know this is Chief Keef’s biggest charting hit? Yeah, he had his moments with ‘I Don’t Like’ and ‘Love Sosa’ in 2012 - that was eight years ago - but now Uzi’s recruited him for a collaboration and I genuinely hope they didn’t just tack on Kobe’s name for additional search results and a single reference to more flexing. Because that’s really what the majority of this song is - brand name flexing, an incredibly monotonous repeated hook, fucking your girl, and Chief Keef not really having much more to say beyond tacking on his intro to the end of his verse. It’s actually kind of a shame how limited the song is, especially when you have more flat synths and cheap-sounding drum machines that only get kind of scratchy at the end - he had to know this is where he could really show out, right? Ehh, again, mediocre - not a fan.

13. ‘Myron’ by Lil Uzi Vert - you know, I’ll say this: of the Lil Uzi Vert songs I have to talk about, this is arguably the best of them? Yeah, he’s still fucking your girl, your mom, and your auntie and bragging about wearing Supreme and saying he’s got a banana clip but won’t slip on the peel… but the watery and spacey synths have some swell when they sharpen for the hook and the beat’s a little heavier… but we’re stuck with Uzi describing getting head like a migraine… and really, if we’re at that level, do I even need to say more to dignify this?

So yeah, Uzi’s getting the worst of the week with ‘Lotus’ as Dishonourable Mention and ‘Strawberry Peels’ with Thugger and Gunna as the worst overall. Best… I wanted to say Uzi could get in here, but ‘Savage’ by Megan Thee Stallion is the Honourable Mention and ‘Does For Me’ by Luke Combs and Eric Church is the clear standout; it’s not particularly close either. Next week, let’s see if any of this survives The Weeknd album bomb…