billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - july 8, 2023

I don’t want to waste a lot of time with an introduction: we have a pretty meaty episode ahead with two album bombs impacting the charts - neither of which will likely matter at all next week because Lil Uzi Vert is going to drop the motherload thanks to Pink Tape - but I will say this: both of these album bombs are fascinating for different reasons, and while thanks to my rules I won’t have to go through every song of either, if you don’t consider the unique circumstances of both, you’re missing a pretty significant picture of what’s happening with mainstream music in 2023, and doing yourself a disservice.

Unfortunately, none of this really has much impact on the top 10, where for another godforsaken week ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen is sitting at #1. Thankfully it will not be for much longer - I fully expect Olivia Rodrigo and ‘Vampire’ to be the biggest challenger Wallen has faced to date, and I don’t think he’ll win, as while streaming is stable, radio is stagnating and sales are on the downswing. What this means is that the door isn’t really open for ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs at #2 - yeah, it’s stable and rising in all channels, but I don’t think it’s going to close the margin to really have a chance at the top. Then we have ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez at #3 - it’s actually still gaining on the radio, but with sales and streams on the decline, I wouldn’t put a ton into its prospects, although with ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #4 in absolute freefall, it’ll probably be safe. Then we have ‘All My Life’ by Lil Durk ft. J. Cole at #5 - I respect how well this is doing on the radio, but the streaming is starting to slip with more competition - and ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii at #6 - basically a similar story, except the radio is drying up to the point where Lil Durk jumped past him, and the losses in other channels are more pronounced. But now we have our new top 10 debut, that’s not related to either album bomb: ‘Barbie World’ by Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj, featuring Aqua at #7 - big sales and streaming got it here, I’ll talk about the song’s quality later on… the long-term success of this is really going to be contingent on whether that Barbie movie lives up to all the hype. It did land above ‘Karma’ by Taylor Swift and Ice Spice at #8, though - not really surprising because despite good radio, the streaming is dropping like a rock - and ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA at #9 - still losing in all categories - and ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd at #10, which has the same story, but with a bit more radio inertia and no streaming cushion.

That takes us to our losers and dropouts, where you’d think it’d be a bloodbath… and it is, but less so than you might expect, with the majority of our dropouts never really getting any traction and a lot of them being Gunna album bomb leftovers. In that group, the ones worth mentioning are three that have locked up their year-end position - ‘Rock And A Hard Place’ by Bailey Zimmerman, ‘Tennessee Orange’ by Megan Moroney, and ‘Under The Influence’ by Chris Brown - and a swathe that will fall short if they don’t rebound, like ‘It Matters To Her’ by Scotty McCreery, ‘Slut Me Out’ by NLE Choppa, and ‘Chanel’ by Becky G and Peso Pluma - you know it gets weird when album bombs are actively cannibalizing songs you already have on the charts! Speaking of which, when we go to our losers that absolutely happened, with ‘BZRP Music Sessions, Vol. 53’ with Bizarrap sliding to 55 and ‘Por Las Noches’ at 76, but outside of the expected losses for Gunna - ‘back to the moon’ at 64, ‘rodeo dr’ at 83, ‘bread & butter’ at 88 - there’s actually not many losers here. The only other debut that saw losses was ‘Attention’ by Doja Cat at 60, ‘Save Me’ by Jelly Roll and Lainey Wilson lost its gains to 99, and for continued losses we have Noah Kahan’s ‘Dial Drunk’ at 77, along with Metro Boomin album bomb losers like ‘Am I Dreaming’ with A$AP Rocky and Roisee at 91, ‘Annihilate’ with Swae Lee, Lil Wayne, and Offset at 79, although that spilled over into ‘Self Love’ with Coi Leray at 85 and ‘Calling’ with Swae Lee, NAV, and A Boogie wit da Hoodie at 66. Outside of that… well, ‘Stand By Me’ by Lil Durk and Morgan Wallen took a solid hit to 51, but while ‘Search & Rescue’ by Drake fell to 36, it’s gonna make the year-end list… yeah, we weren’t that lucky here.

Now as expected, our returns and gains are pretty sparse this week - in the former group, ‘Pound Town 2’ by Sexyy Red, Tay Keith, and Nicki Minaj returned to 94, and with our gains we continue to see the viral success of ‘Peaches & Eggplants’ by Young Nudy and 21 Savage to 61 and Nashville propping up the radio for ‘Memory Lane’ by Old Dominion up to 27 and especially ‘Bury Me In Georgia’ by Kane Brown getting a big boost to 44. But again, the big story here are our album bombs, and both qualify under our my rules with Peso Pluma getting seven songs and Young Thug getting ten. Both of these artists are very guest-dependent in their success here, but let’s deal with Peso Pluma first, where it seems that despite many of his songs having the same farty horns and shallow flexing, I’m more sympathetic because you can tell he’s using his newfound platform to put on as many acts in his scene as he can, so for his album bomb, we have ‘Rosa Pastel’ and ‘Lagunas’ both with Jasiel Nunez at 93 and 90 respectively - the latter is actually a really nice slow-burn yearning song - ‘Nueva Vida’ at 86, and ‘Rubicon’ at 63. Now for Young Thug - where you can tell this was cobbled together from throwaways to pounce on hype and stacked with the biggest names it could get - we have ‘Abracadabra’ with Travis Scott at 97, ‘Uncle M’ at 81, ‘Hellcat Kenny’ with Lil Uzi Vert at 70, ‘Wit Da Racks’ with Travis Scott, 21 Savage and Yak Gotti at 56, and ‘Cars Bring Me Out’ with Future at 52 - this is one of the best on the album, though I’d argue it’s not as good as it’s been advertised.

Now for a slightly more reasonable list of new arrivals…

100. ‘Gucci Grocery Bag’ by Young Thug - this is one of those songs where its shittiness isn’t exactly obvious on first listen - yeah, the bass feels crushing against the rattling trap percussion and that piano loop, but if it’s just going to play to repeating the phrase ‘Gucci Grocery Bag’ and run up brand name porn… it’s Young Thug at his least interesting, I’m more surprised it’s nearly three minutes long. But then came multiple homophobic slurs on the verses to refer to the rainbow and the colour of his diamonds as just more throwaway lines around him not paying his taxes or that his girl’s watch matches her panties and she’s righteous because she does everything he tells her to do, and it just highlighted how idiotic and empty all of this is, made all the more stark because I’ve heard Young Thug do this for damn near ten years and it’s not interesting! In other words, this blows - where’s Gudda Gudda when you need him?

89. ‘Watermelon Moonshine’ by Lainey Wilson - so fun story, I saw a Rolling Stone article that called this one of the best country songs of 2023 thus far right before listening to it for the first time. That kind of shocked me, but Rolling Stone has a slightly above average reputation when discussing country songs and I’ve mostly liked Lainey Wilson thus far, and… I have to be honest, I’m not wowed by this one. I get the nostalgic sentiment of her first drink and young love under the stars, and I appreciate that she’s not exactly regretful of the experience that went nowhere - it’s a good memory - but I’m not wild about the woozy, faux-psychedelic drippy guitar tones and synths that flesh out the background that feel like Wilson is cribbing notes from Kacey Musgraves from five years ago. But I also know that if you’re familiar with dream country from the past five years like I am, this sound will feel a lot less novel… look, it’s not bad, but for all of the push Lainey Wilson is getting, I wish the songs stuck a little stronger, and this is no exception.

78. ‘Money On The Dresser’ by Young Thug - man, this Young Thug album got out to an awful start, I get why Metro Boomin wanted to re-order the tracks and bury this among the deep cuts, especially with the lumbering bass, sandy hi-hats, basic as hell organ line, and a bunch of hideous squeaking synth spurts stolen from Arca. I guess I appreciated the UGK shoutout on the hook, but Thug trying to flex in his lower register is a really awkward look, especially when the brand name porn piles up again and Thug compares this Amazonian girl to ‘Matilda’. I’m going to be charitable and say he was referencing Trunchbull here, because otherwise he’s talking about fucking a child and turning her mouth into a ‘babysitter’. Should not be surprising then that this song also fucking blows, let’s move on!

59. ‘Want Me Dead’ by Young Thug ft. 21 Savage - alright, I’ll say it: I think this is the best song on the album that charted this week, and while I like the eerie understated trap groove off the distorted chipmunked sample from Metro Boomin, and I think Young Thug’s singing over the hook conveys the feel of being hunted and under fire pretty well, he’s not the reason I like this, mostly because on his verse he complains about his bunions from wearing foreign shoes, calls an ex of someone’s ‘Pocahontas’, and while his flow is nice he still says he puts the dick in this girl like ‘crunches’. No, it’s 21 Savage whose menace just runs away with this song - the second flow he uses is great, it leads to probably my favourite verse on the album even if it’s just 21 doing what he does. More importantly, it feels like this is a song that correlates with what Young Thug is going through right now, and that gives it some emotional weight beyond the rest of the brand name flexing - it’s a good song, I’ll take it!

58. ‘Doomsday.’ by Lyrical Lemonade, Juice WRLD & Cordae - I’m actually a little surprised we didn’t get something like this sooner - and by that I mean the upcoming Lyrical Lemonade compilation, given how Cole Bennett has had a frankly ridiculous run in terms of music video collaborations. What I was a lot less thrilled to see was yet another posthumous Juice WRLD feature, this time paired with a very recognizable Eminem sample of ‘Role Model’, but this looks to be much closer to an extended freestyle with Cordae and Juice WRLD trading connecting bars with really good chemistry. Honestly, even if I wish the track came together a bit more, it reminds me a lot of old Eminem in both the creativity of punchlines and the tighter lyrical structure, with Cordae as being a little more focused while Juice WRLD can run a little wilder - it doesn’t have the edge of Eminem at his best, but very few did, and I honestly like this a lot. Probably the most I’ve liked a posthumous Juice WRLD song since 2020 - that says a lot!

54. ‘VVS’ by Peso Pluma, Los Dareyes De La Sierra & Edgardo Nunez - I think to anyone who heard this album that this is my favourite cut that debuted this week is not surprising: because what do you know, the factor that helps me like regional Mexican music is slap bass that sounds great even if the horns are as jittery and farty as ever! But with the slap bass paired with richer accordions there’s less of those horns, and while I’m not familiar with Peso Pluma’s guests here, Los Dareyes De La Sierra in particular has a rougher, more powerful vocal timbre that I like a lot and really fits this style! I’m not going to say the content is that special - it’s basically a strident middle finger at anyone who doubts them or their lifestyles especially as they do give back to friends and family - but there’s an energy and flair to this that feels distinct, and I had fun with it; check it out!

39. ‘Parade On Cleveland’ by Young Thug ft. Drake - not gonna lie, the first time I heard this song, I knew in my gut the Young Thug album wasn’t going to measure up to any expectations - because you get Drake on this watery intro where he’s the first person you hear on the album, and he’s off-beat immediately in his crooning. And while he eventually locked in - although of course the corny bars are here, ‘slime on your head, Nickelodeon time’ - we get a prison call interlude and a complete beat switch into a creaky trap flip that has a decent sample nestled in there as Thug talks about turning one of the women white like Michael Jackson in moving her to Beverly Hills… wow, I don’t even want to unpack that even if it’s intended metaphorically. The reality is that this song is more about starting with the biggest name possible to draw attention - nobody will care about this track on its own, you can bank on it.

35. ‘Lady Gaga’ by Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros & Junior H - I’m a little shocked how much this worked for me, in that that there’s an actual melodic hook that materializes between the jittery acoustics and bassline that has some pretty good interplay before the choppy gallop clicks in, and the horns feel better balanced to not overpower the mix. As for the content… it’s a flex that relies on a reference to Lady Gaga’s Don Perignon collaboration and flexing that they now have outside of social media - including a lot of cocaine - so I’m not wowed by the content, but there’s more of a melodic hook… I can defend this, it’s decent.

30. ‘Luna’ by Peso Pluma & Junior H - one thing that caught me offguard with this Peso Pluma album is that the ballads were better than what I expected - ‘Luna’ is not better than, say, ‘Lagunas’, but it’s not bad. Junior H and Peso Pluma know enough to underplay his yearning for this ex who they’re clearly not over, and Junior H in particular can sell this sort of quiet heartbreak reasonably well. Unfortunately this was lost on the instrumental, where the staccato horns and rattling acoustics might play a bit slower but still have a lot of overstated brightness that don’t match a moonlit scene at all. I dunno, the potential was there with this one, but as it is it’s just okay.

26. ‘Sabor Fresa’ by Fuerza Regida - okay, you know what, it does bug me a little that Fuerza Regida just happened to have the biggest regional Mexican debut in the week Peso Pluma had his album bomb - I get that a rising tide lifts all ships, but I don’t love the timing, especially when Peso Pluma’s album was frankly much better than I expected, even if it wasn’t my thing! And it’s not helped by the song being pretty rough - the whooshing effects and reverb don’t get around the farty horns and clicking acoustics and Fuerza Regida trying to bring more volume without much texture of personality. It also doesn’t help that when the lyrics are translated there’s this smug, leering vibe to how he sees women, and that’s not getting into the passing reference to another Peso Pluma song in reference to drug running; I’m probably missing something in the translation, but it seems like where Peso Pluma is a little hesitant to shoot first, Fuerza Regida does not have that problem, he doesn’t think about it - this is a song that runs on raw bluster more than anything else, and I don’t really care for that. So no, not a fan of this - next!

19. ‘Oh U Went’ by Young Thug ft. Drake - I’m not surprised this is the biggest debut from Young Thug - again, a Drake feature will do that - but it’s worth noting that this didn’t beat Gunna’s top debut in ‘Fukumean’, which only picked up position - I hope that it wasn’t intended to do so and they still have a relationship, because otherwise someone fucked up here. Otherwise, this is fine - Thug is not particularly interesting here in his flex across his verse and extended hook against the flipped sample, acoustics, and breezy trap percussion, but Drake’s faster flow and tighter punchlines save the track, even though the line ‘I’m the definition like the dictionary’ prove Drake can still be as corny as ever; kind of a shame because otherwise he’d have the standout verse on the album! But still… I don’t know if this is special enough to stick - not bad, but not exceptional from either man, and while I know better than to expect that, it doesn’t mean it’s not a problem, just saying…

7. ‘Barbie World’ by Ice Spice & Nicki Minaj ft. Aqua - you know, the more songs I hear from this Barbie soundtrack the more I get this sinking feeling, and it’s made worse by the fact that I’m happy Aqua is getting the credit here; they were a fun eclectic group from the late 90s that deserves to be known for more than just ‘Barbie Girl’, goddamn it. No, it’s the combination of Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj that isn’t helping, because I’m starting to think Nicki is here less because she’s got some great chemistry with Ice Spice and more that she has absolutely no risk of being overshadowed lyrically. What I’m saying is that while I don’t hate this the way some folks do, I think it’s not making the most of its material - the drill flip of ‘Barbie Girl’ is actually really good and I didn’t mind Nicki and Ice Spice trading bars on the hook, but Nicki has no energy on her verse and the flex feels very lazy from her - honestly, I think Ice Spice’s verse is a little sharper! But the song isn’t even two minutes long, and the fact that we don’t get a bridge or a third verse is very telling just how much effort was put in. Again, this is running on residual good will for Aqua, a rare good sample flip, and Ice Spice’s verse surprising me - that’s it.

So that was a long week, and where the best and worst fall out pretty fast. In the latter category, Young thug is getting them both, with Worst of the Week to ‘Money On The Dresser’ and Dishonourable Mention to ‘Gucci Grocery Bag’… but he’s also tying for the Honourable Mention with ‘Want Me Dead’ with 21 Savage, who really should be getting all of the credit. This is a tie, though, so let’s also highlight ‘VVS’ by Peso Pluma, Los Dareyes De La Sierra and Edgardo Nunez, with the best of the week actually going to Lyrical Lemonade, the late Juice WRLD, and Cordae for ‘Doomsday.’ - I’m shocked it worked at all, but between the interplay and some really good rapping, I know what I like. And besides, next week Lil Uzi Vert and Olivia Rodrigo are rolling over all of this, so stay tuned for that!