billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - july 3, 2021

…so let’s be real, I’m under no illusions that the slowdown this week is going to last. We’re between album bombs - and I would put money on Tyler, The Creator getting an album bomb next week - and any modest resets we’re seeing with chart position are not guaranteed to last under any circumstance. In short, for as much as Billboard doesn’t matter as usual, this week I really would not put much stock in things.

And that starts right at the top ten, especially with ‘Butter’ by BTS at #1. And at this point, we all know it’s not the radio or streaming that’s propping up this song, it’s sales, specifically now a run of singles sales that’s giving this arguably its most secure lead on top to date. Here’s where things get dicey: during the tracking week Columbia issued an alternative cover art version of the single for more online sales.. but they did it with a different ISRC code, which means they can circumvent Billboard’s bulk buy rules… because again, the army is organized in buying multiple copies, which for the extent any of this is considered “organic”, this is about the furthest thing when radio has stalled out and streaming is dropping off. Putting aside the question that this could be fraudulent - I looked up ISRC code rules and a new code is only to be reissued upon a remix, a significant change in the recording’s length, a historical restoration or a compilation release, although the question of if or how the music industry enforces this is up to debate - and how we’re now at the point where to prop up a band’s popularity the label has convinced stans to buy multiple copies of the exact same song… I dunno, to me it’s just starting to seem a little sad and Billboard should be way more embarrassed of this than they are - historically, this won’t look good. If anything it reminds me of when you have someone who is into min-maxing his character in a tabletop roleplaying game to an absurd, overpowered degree by cheesing the rules - sure, you might win, and what you’re doing is ‘technically legal’, but it’ll always come up when you talk about that character, and nobody likes you. It’s not even that I feel bad for Olivia Rodrigo that she’s stranded at #2 with ‘good 4 u’ - up in every category, the streaming is strong, radio is surging, and with this momentum - or if Billboard fixes their rules - this could still go to #1, mark my words. Kind of a shame the rest of the top 10 isn’t that interesting - ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby actually got the top spot on the radio at #3, even if it definitely peaked and looks to be slipping already, ‘Kiss Me More’ by Doja Cat & SZA looks to be primed for their album boost next week at #4 as streaming is up and they try to narrow the airplay margin, and that strands ‘Peaches’ by Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar and Giveon at #5, mostly here on radio inertia that’s rapidly dropping away. The problem is that it’s also happening for ‘Leave The Door Open’ by Silk Sonic even faster at #6, and for ‘Save Your Tears’ by The Weeknd and Ariana Grande at #7. I’m not sure it’s enough for ‘Montero (Call Me By Your Name)’ by Lil Nas X to make a run beyond #8, though - yeah, airplay and streaming are up, but I’m not sure that’s enough to do more than slip past ‘deja vu’ by Olivia Rodrigo at #9, where it seems like they’re letting her radio momentum peter out naturally, especially as she still has streaming momentum. Finally we have ‘Astronaut In The Ocean’ by Masked Wolf at #10 - even if the sales are still there, radio took a nosedive this week, so its window might be closed here; just as well, the meme has gotten tired.

On that note, our losers and dropouts… and in the latter category we didn’t really have any beyond remnants of the past few album bombs, which is true with our losers too! From Migos we saw ‘Straightenin’ slip back to 45, ‘Having Our Way’ with Drake at 49, and ‘Avalanche’ at 86, and from Polo G we had ‘No Return’ with Kid LAROI and Lil Durk at 72 and ‘Gang Gang’ with Lil Wayne at 80 - also for Lil Durk we had ‘How It Feels’ with Lil Baby at 98. Outside of that… ‘Lost Cause’ just tanked at 92, ‘Need to Know’ by Doja Cat fell off the debut to 66 - it’ll rebound next week - and ‘Nobody’ by Dylan Scott fell to 69, because it looks like Nashville is pulling it after its run didn’t really do much.

But given that so much album bomb material slipped away for a quiet week without much in new releases, we actually have a lot of returns where I don’t trust their stability at all: ‘Outside’ by MO3 and OG Bobby Billions at 100, ‘Twerkulator’ by City Girls at 96, ‘Tell Em’ by Cochise and $NOT at 95, ‘4 Da Gang’ by 42 Dugg and Roddy Ricch at 89, ‘Pick Up Your Feelings’ by Jazmine Sullivan at 84, ‘Tombstone’ by Rod Wave at 83, and ‘Chasing After You’ by Maren Morris and Ryan Hurd at 78. The three interesting exceptions here are ‘Come Through’ by H.E.R. featuring Chris Brown at 70 - I’m curious how her album impact will boost this next week - and then ‘What’s Next’ by Drake at 91 and ‘We’re Good’ by Dua Lipa at 87, where there’s a chance they both got just enough points to clinch year-end positions at the very bottom with this week, although that could wind marginal. But where things get weird are our gains, a lot of which are in country rushing to fill the gaps and for the most part that’s not good: Sure, I don’t mind ‘Blame It On You’ by Jason Aldean at 34 or ‘Things A Man Oughta Know’ by Lainey Wilson at 58, or even ‘Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)’ by Elle King and Miranda Lambert rebounding yet again to 73, but if the cost is ‘Country Again’ by Thomas Rhett at 75, ‘Drinkin Beer, Talkin God, Amen’ by Chase Rice and Florida Georgia Line at 64, ‘Single Saturday Night’ by Cole Swindell at 50, ‘Almost Maybes’ by Jordan Davis at 43, and ‘Lil Bit’ by Nelly and Florida Georgia Line surging to 24 on their sales, we may have a problem! Outside of that… well, recovering from its losses ‘Miss The Rage’ by Trippie Redd and Playboi Carti hit 82, ‘Follow You’ by Imagine Dragons rose to 81, ‘Quicksand’ by Morray recovered to 79, and off the debut we saw ‘You’ by Regard, Troye Sivan and Tate McRae rise to 71, ‘Fiel’ by Los Legendarios, Wisin, and Jhay Cortez at 62, and ‘transparentsoul’ by Willow and Travis Barker at 76. But then we also got ‘Arcade’ by Duncan Laurence continuing up to 61 - looks like adult contemporary finally picked it up, lovely - ‘Ski’ by Young Thug and Gunna pulling up at 56, ‘Build A Bitch’ by Bella Poarch holding steady at 57, and on its continued radio rise, ‘Leave Before You Love Me’ by Marshmello and the Jonas Brothers at 37 - again, the way this is going, it’s gonna be a hit, mark my words.

But all of this leads to a pretty short - and odd - week of new arrivals, starting off with…

99. ‘My Boy’ by Elvie Shane - not gonna lie, the first thoughts I had when seeing this name was ‘that’s not a real name’ and 'what’s the odds this guy is another utterly forgettable Nashville act for which we’re going to forget exists in record time’? Well, it turns this guy actually does have some claim to fame - he was briefly on American Idol in 2016 - but this is his first charting single off an EP from this year even though the song is just over a year yet… and to my surprise, I actually think this is a pretty damn good song. The production is surprisingly well-balanced with some textured acoustics and a developed low-end, Shane has a rougher, twangier tone than a lot of his modern peers and there’s little overproduction to clean it up, and most importantly, this is a song that feels unique in country, specifically from the place of being a stepfather and seeing his impact on the kid growing up. And there’s a lot of gruff but genuine sweetness to the song that feels lived-in and organic in the right way - maybe a little low-key as a whole, but as a first impression this is excellent. Okay, you have my attention - let’s see if this catches on.

94. ‘Working’ by Tate McRae & Khalid - am I the only one who thought this was obvious, especially given the recurrent traffic that ‘lovely’ by Billie Eilish and Khalid still picks up, so why not pair him with her ripoff? But alright, Billie has been underwhelming me a bit recently and Tate McRae these days sounds more like Bebe Rexha anyway, so maybe this’ll hold up or be interesting, especially as Khalid has had decent luck with duets… and you know, if you want to get a song that’s as awkwardly constructed as telling someone that your relationship isn’t working, it might be this one. Once again Tate McRae finds herself completely overshadowed by her costar in terms of charisma and vocal presence, but the larger problem is one of tone: between the chipper upbeat tempo, all the ‘da-da-das’ in the vocal line, the slightly off-kilter melody against the weirdly stiff snap, it seems like it’s trying to be breezy or cute but it doesn’t match the scene unless the relationship is utterly disposable, which is not an emotion being sold here! Again, it gives me the feeling of a pop song built to push Tate McRae rather than stand alone… and as such I have no interest to go back to it - next!

93. ‘Lumberjack’ by Tyler, The Creator - so yes, I’ve heard the new Tyler, The Creator album, I need a little more time to fully digest it, I’ll be covering it some form on my main channel after my midyear list, just keep that in mind. But this is the song that he rolled out for promo and… I mean it’s good, but I’m not sure how much I can say about it without the album as a whole, because it feels a little more like an interlude than a song that stands alone. Part of that is the structure of the album with DJ Drama shouting over everything to give it that 2000s mixtape vibe, only reinforced by the rougher production and the Gravediggaz sample, but when you pair it with Tyler at his most monotone, it means the song doesn’t really punch harder for me, especially when more of it feels like a tangled, uncomfortable flex. Yeah, it’s clever - the many references to IGOR winning at the Grammys, but it not feeling as satisfactory as he was hoping, a comeuppance to an audience that he doesn’t seem to like anyway, and even discomfort with California as a whole - and it’s a potent flex, but it seems to consistently undercut itself, and thus without the larger context of the project, I’m not sure I’m into it as much as I want to be. Still good, though - it’ll be nice to talk about more.

90. ‘Waves’ by Luke Bryan - okay, is Luke Bryan just looking to take over for Kenny Chesney now? He’s at that age where he can’t make Spring Break mixtapes anymore, and ‘One Margarita’ did well last year, so now from the deluxe reissue of his last album we got this tacked on, which seems to have the feel of a slightly misty, organ-saturated hookup with some odd synth textures in the background that can’t quite obscure how synthetic it all feels. Honestly, it reminds me of sounds that Jake Owen was doing better two years ago, especially as Luke Bryan tries to sell a more sensual vibe - which is odd because the song isn’t really subtle or restrained - so I’m left wondering who this is really for outside of his diehard female fanbase who’ll jump all over this. For what it’s worth, there’s less overproduction this time, the mix balance isn’t as bad as it’s been the past… but beyond that, it just gives very little to say.

85. ‘We Didn’t Have Much’ by Justin Moore - Okay, I’m kind of stunned we’re still getting singles charting from Justin Moore - for those who haven’t been paying attention, his career has been on the downswing the past few years, to the point where he put out a project in April and I’m not sure anyone cared that much, especially as his label tends to be surprisingly decent at promoting him. But I heard this was him going more neotraditional, which to me seemed to make sense given the songs of his I can tolerate, and… well, it’s closer to that territory, at least on the hook with the pedal steel where it seems like he’s really trying to remake parts of ‘Meanwhile Back At Mama’s’ by Tim McGraw, but it does clash a bit with how the verse feel a bit more modern in their production. And the content… I mean, not bad, the sort of nostalgic reflection on growing up without much money that tends to work for me, but the writing feels very list-driven and more formulaic than it should, and while I buy this more from Moore than someone like Thomas Rhett, the composition feeling so by the numbers doesn’t help it stand out for me. I’ll say this, Justin Moore making something that passable is a step-up for him - really, he could go off the rails in so many ways - but I’m not really going to care about it. I will say it’s better than…

51. ‘Fancy Like’ by Walker Hayes - let’s establish this quickly: the reason this blew up the way it did was thanks to TikTok, not because Walker Hayes makes anything close to decent music, and Caitlyn Smith is on the exact same label, Shane McAnally, and you can’t give her a shred of the marketing you just know will be thrown behind this now to capitalize on any moment of virality? And this legit pisses me off, because it’s not just that she’s made some of the best pop country of the past few years with no charting traction, it’s that label resources are being thrown behind this instead and it’s going to be framed as more bullshit examples of Nashville ‘meritocracy’ rather than perpetuating a broken status quo - you know, just like MCA Nashville and how they treated Kacey Musgraves in comparison with fucking Sam Hunt. And that’s telling, because Walker Hayes sounds like the poor, poor man’s Sam Hunt with his limp, adlib-inflected faux rap with a leaden bass, formless percussion, and guitars that I really wish had anything close to tone or presence so we don’t get Hayes mugging over how they don’t need things ‘fancy like’. And I kept waiting for the joke - I remember when Weird Al did his parody of ‘Whatever You Like’ by T.I., but I don’t think there’s a joke here, all about his girl being all low-maintenance and liking Wendy’s and Applebee’s and I can smell the slimy brand integration from here, but this is not a song trying to be nostalgic about the simple life like Justin Moore was, or to reference someone on his own label, it’s got none of the romance of Caitlyn Smith’s ‘Cheap Date’! Instead it’s got this mugging air that completely turns my stomach, and it’s just not funny, even when we get lines like ‘bougie like Natty in the styrofoam’, or how he describes his girl as ‘double wide’, talking about getting some ‘Alabama-jamma’. I get this is supposed to be homespun and cute which is why there’s a fucking TikTok dance for it, but he can’t sell that vibe so it comes across sleazy in the most incompetent way possible - and given that it’s got some virality, we can only hope that it fizzles before this crap gets a radio push, because apparently Monument can’t recognize obvious talent on their own roster from a crack in their ass. So yeah, this is absolutely one of the worst songs I’ve heard this year - knowing my luck, it could wind up a hit.

39. ‘Ball If I Want To’ by DaBaby - I’m getting the suspicion that DaBaby might be heading into a commercial downswing. Because while he managed to salvage things from BLAME IT ON BABY courtesy of ‘ROCKSTAR’ becoming massive, between the mediocre music and him taking the side of Tory Lanez over Megan Thee Stallion - which is just so unbelievably stupid to do so publicly when she has ‘Thot Shit’ and the Jay-Z connection you want, and Tory Lanez has managed to become irrelevant trash in record time - all of this screams bad judgement or a really bad promo team, and now we have to get to the new music! And this song… it’s ‘BOP’ part two, except not as good because the percussion sounds cheap as hell, DaBaby’s rambling flow is getting stale, the faint melodic sample doesn’t contribute to the groove, and I have zero interest listening to DaBaby talking about the rough sex he’s having. What’s abundantly clear is that once you get past one or two distinctive lines, the song becomes such rote filler, where it doesn’t even sound like he cares - he put more effort into his guest appearance on Polo G’’s album than this, and it feels undercooked and lazy. I mean, throw this on the pile with the rest of the forgettable DaBaby songs - and that pile is starting to get pretty big, just saying.

Anyway, this week wound up weird - I did not expect the best of the week to go to Elvie Shane for ‘My Boy’, but it’s probably the best thing here, especially as that Tyler track works better in the context of the album than on its own. Whereas nothing about ‘Fancy Like’ by Walker Hayes works at all - in a just world, Tyler and Doja Cat compete with album bombs and this is blown off the charts by next week, even America deserves better than this.