billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - july 17, 2021

You know, I normally like to praise weeks coming off of massive album bombs, especially heading into a summer lull which at least for me I’ve felt like I could use… but this is one of those cases where I have concerns about what might be flooding in to replace Tyler, The Creator and Doja Cat, because while there is some promise… well, we’ll get to it.

Let’s start with our top ten - yes, ‘Butter’ by BTS is at #1 thanks to pretty much sales alone, we’ve heard this story - but now we have an interesting conundrum with BTS releasing ‘Permission to Dance’, which might wind up splitting the attention of audiences next week - I don’t foresee a big dropoff, but given that radio and streaming have stalled out, I’d argue it’s more vulnerable than you may think. And ‘good 4 u’ by Olivia Rodrigo is in prime position to take the top spot beyond #2 - sales may be down but streaming and surging radio have her in prime position to capitalize on any weakness. This placing ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby, once again, in an awkward spot: rising back up to #3 even as its radio staggers and sales are down, streaming is up… although with her team now starting to throw promo behind ‘Love Again’, I can imagine its time has passed. And really, its gain was more thanks to ‘Kiss Me More’ slipping back from the album boost to #4, even as its streaming and radio remain strong. Then as predicted, ‘Montero (Call Me By Your Name)’ by Lil Nas X saw a bunch of songs fall past it as its radio and streaming remained stable to push it to #5, but where things get interesting come with ‘Bad Habits’ by Ed Sheeran slipping to #6 despite being strong in all channels… and where Billboard has put forward a new rules change. In short, they changed the tracking week for radio from Monday to Sunday, to Friday to Thursday, to bring it in line with how they track streaming and sales, which doesn’t seem like a huge change… except by doing it like this, when a song gets a prime radio deal it’s captured within the same week of release for Billboard tracking purposes, so for a song like ‘Bad Habits’ where Atlantic is throwing the kitchen sink at the radio for promotion, it would have debuted higher; maybe not challenged for #1, but it would have been closer. What’s important to highlight is who this benefits: established radio acts who can synchronize their sales, streaming, and airplay promotion for a big chart debut - in other words, Republic, Atlantic and my guess especially Interscope saw the sales gimmickry of the past month from Columbia and put pressure on Billboard because they’re sick of having their a-list acts not debut or chart as high as they could - and given that Columbia’s roster aren’t guaranteed immediate radio traction out the gate even for some of their pop acts, let alone crossover because this label can be really slow to work a record on radio, this could be trouble; and you wonder why I don’t take Billboard seriously when they do this shit, I can see the label politics playing out in real time! Anyway, this moved over the last four songs that are mostly in decay or heading out: ‘Leave The Door Open’ by Silk Sonic at #7, especially with its radio in freefall, ‘Peaches’ by Justin Bieber, Daniel Caesar and Giveon at #8 for the same reason just with weaker sales and streaming, ‘Save Your Tears’ by The Weeknd and Ariana Grande at #9 which is actually slowing down in its radio collapse, and ‘deja vu’ by Olivia Rodrigo at #10, which actually isn’t collapsing at all with good streaming but needs to narrow the radio margin to make up for pitiful sales.

Anyway, losers and dropouts… which were pretty much dominated by Tyler and Doja Cat, but hey, they managed to knock out ‘Almost Maybes’ by Jordan Davis short of making a year end list, so I’m not complaining here. And speaking of Tyler and Doja Cat, they pretty much fill up our losers here too: from Tyler we had ‘WUSYANAME’ with YoungBoy Never Broke Again and Ty Dolla $ign at 44 and ‘JUGGERNAUT’ with Lil Uzi Vert and Pharrell at 99, and from Doja Cat we had ‘Ain’t Shit’ at 41 and ‘Need to Know’ at 64… oh and ‘AM’ by Nio Garcia, J Balvin, and Bad Bunny fell off the debut to 57 and ‘Gone’ by Dierks Bentley continues on its way out at 48, which looks to be fading naturally and will likely leave the charts soon.

But this meant our gains and returns flooded in… not exactly for the better in either category, I should add. Like in the latter category we may have gotten ‘enough for you’ by Olivia Rodrigo at 98 and ‘Outside’ by MO3 and OG Bobby Billions at 92 and ‘My Boy’ by Elvie Shane at 88, but it came with ‘All I Know So Far’ by P!nk at 96, and ‘What’s Next’ by Drake back again at 97, and ‘Tell Em’ by Cochise and $NOT at 100. But we have a lot more gains this week, and let’s start with the recoveries: ‘Tombstone’ by Rod Wave at 85, ‘Come Through’ by H.E.R. and Chris Brown at 79, ‘jealousy jealousy’ by Olivia Rodrigo at 78 along with ‘favorite crime’ at 52, and ‘Things A Man Oughta Know’ by Lainey Wilson at 51. Then there are the songs catching a brief break to fill in the gaps and that’s a mixed bag: ‘Twerkulator’ by City Girls at 80, ‘Follow You’ by Imagine Dragons at 77, ‘You’ by Regard, Troye Sivan and Tate McRae at 60, ‘Arcade’ by Duncan Laurence at 58, and ‘Way Less Sad’ by AJR at 54. Then off the debut we had ‘Beggin’ by Maneskin up to 46 - I’d really prefer this not become a hit, there’s so much better rock music than this - but the big story is Nashville country, and maybe it was just because of the fourth of July or the adjustment that gave radio a little more prioritization in its tracking week or just a lull on the charts, but it was a surge this week. ‘We Didn’t Have Much’ by Justin Moore at 75, ‘Waves’ by Luke Bryan at 74, ‘Country Again’ by Thomas Rhett at 71, ‘Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)’ by Elle King and Miranda Lambert at 63, ‘Chasing After You’ by Ryan Hurd and Maren Morris at 62, ‘Glad You Exist’ by Dan + Shay at 35, and ‘Single Saturday Night’ by Cole Swindell at 26. But what’s truly galling are the two continued gains, and for different reasons: one is ‘Drinkin Beer, Talkin God, Amen’ by Chase Rice and Florida Georgia Line at 40 - it’s bad, but Nashville threw radio traction behind it, my only hope is that it fades as rapidly as it has risen, which is very possible. What scares me is ‘Fancy Like’ by Walker Hayes at #20 - again, this doesn’t have radio yet, the sales are just that strong alongside its streaming, this is becoming a thing, and I’d really like it to stop!

But that’s the thing: there’s a lot of country flooding into our new arrivals this week, and we have to start with…

95. ‘Cold Beer Calling My Name’ by Jameson Rodgers ft. Luke Combs - …so I guess we’re going to keep giving Jameson Rodgers a career? Full disclosure, I remember covering ‘Some Girls’ but I can’t remember the slightest thing about it, so bringing in Luke Combs for backup does make sense on an EP literally called In It For The Money… and honestly, this seems about as generic and forgettable, especially as Luke Combs overshadows Rodgers in terms of vocal texture and presence effortlessly. Honestly, it feels like a Luke Combs song down to the meatier guitars, the more balanced production - although why the handclap is there, I have no idea - and the content is in very relaxed, get a beer and chill territory. I dunno, country has been cranking out songs like this with better tunes and stronger hooks for decades now, and I’m not sure why Luke Combs didn’t just cut this himself - it has the feel of throwing a favour to a newer artist, and said favour may have backfired - let’s move on.

91. ‘I Was On A Boat That Day’ by Old Dominion - look, I know there’s an audience that sticks up for Old Dominion - including my little sister, who has seen them live - but there’s always been a weird hollowness to their sound that prevents me from really getting into them, and with this… well, it does have more character, but I’m not sure that’s a good thing. For one, this falls into the territory of ‘I’m getting dumped, but what the hell, let’s go goof off’, which can feel a little callous if it’s not played way, and given how ramshackle and nonchalant the song feels, it’s got some of that dickish energy that’s always permeated Old Dominion’s least likable songs. Thankfully the execution does save this from being worse - the accordion, the choppy but generally warm strumming of the acoustic line, the mostly organic production, the fact that this feels like a wholesale Zac Brown Band ripoff minus the harmonies but if that band isn’t going to be good or interesting anymore we might as well get something… but still, this is just obnoxious enough that I can tell if it stick around, I’m going to turn it really fast. Not bad now, but it likely will get worse.

90. ‘You Should Probably Leave’ by Chris Stapleton - I honestly don’t know how much there is for me to say about this song - when I heard the album this was an obvious highlight and also obvious single, and while it took forever for Nashville radio to start pushing it, I’m really happy it’s here. Dave Cobb’s production and impeccable mastering gives the song terrific smolder between Chris and his wife Morgane’s backing vocals, the lead electric melody hits some legit soul off the touches of organ, but what I really love is how well the bass is balanced - not overbearing, but always that supple foundation. And I like how playful the song is - he’s gently pushing her away, but the flirtatious moments highlight real chemistry as they wind up together that night. And personally for me, I listened to this song a ton when I was first dating my last partner - sets the vibe tremendously., let me tell you. So Mercury Nashville, you have your work cut out for you - you have a legit fantastic hit, make it count.

83. ‘A-O-K’ by Tai Verdes - I’ve been hearing buzz around Tai Verdes for a while - off and on I’ve seen comments saying he’s someone I should really check out his album from this year, and his story is kind of interesting: he’s been struggling to catch a break, so he went on an MTV dating show, wound up winning, took the prize money to cut a record… and then wound up going viral on TikTok last year. So with this new song… well, I’m considerably less impressed, because wow this reminds me of the sort of commercialcore that ate indie pop alive four or five years ago, down to the heavily overdubbed vocals, the chipper acoustic guitar, the sterling clean production, and the relentless upbeat optimism that’s less Andy Grammar and more a desperate attempt to force a smile by the second verse. If anything it kind of reminds of ‘Sunday Best’ by Surfaces from last year but with a slightly more organic vibe, because there’s at least some veneer of forced irony here - and the writing is clunky, down to him calling himself a G and his terrible, horrible, no-good very bad days - but it feels closer to a kid’s song especially with its melody and presentation… except for all the swearing which doesn’t match any vibe and this just kind of sours on me. I don’t know who the audience for this is, but it’s not me - again, this is one of these songs that if overplayed will burn themselves out on me very fast - as of now it’s fine, but potentially not for long.

82. ‘Essence’ by Wizkid ft. Tems - you know, for as often as I see Wizkid trending on social media given his global success, I’ve been a little surprised he hasn’t seen more chart penetration in the states - I mean ‘One Dance’ was in 2016 and I have to hope nobody’s going back to that era of Drake. But here’s a song from his album last year that’s going more straight afrobeat, and… well, this song is as much of a showcase for Tems as it is Wizkid, who I’ll admit I don’t quite like as much with his more nasal singing against the bassy patter of percussion, very spare melody, and echoing shouts and taps across the mix - the song is trying for a dance-ready smolder to compliment the trumpet, and I think Wizkid hits that vibe a little more effectively. But I can’t say I’m wild about this, mostly because of Tems’ hook but also how it just feels stripped back to a fault, so lacking in a stronger tune that it just doesn’t give me much beyond the vocals and some nice percussion. Not bad, but it doesn’t strike as memorable as I’d like it to be, that’s all.

81. ‘Cry No More’ by G Herbo ft. Polo G & Lil Tjay - well, this was just a matter of time: given the increasingly rise of trap and drill and the rougher Chicago scene that it would just be a matter of time before G Herbo got the full push to rival his peers from the city like Lil Durk and Polo G, the latter of whom is on this song. I’ll admit I’m surprised it’s taken this long - I remember G Herbo having hype back in the mid-2010s before he got signed to a major - but with this as not even a single he’s pushing from the new album, I was curious how well it might click… and this is pretty decent, but I get why it might be getting more attention for its guest stars than G Herbo, given that he only has one verse and he almost seems like less of a presence than Polo G handling the hook and Lil Tjay’s verse and adlibs. Granted, I don’t think it’s helped by his writing not being all that distinctive in comparison with his peers - a little shakier in how he constructs his bars, and the blur of gunplay and angst does need a little more to really grip me here. Especially with the pianos and the stiff trap clicks, as much as I don’t mind this sound I find myself looking for that extra bit to put it over the top, and I’m not hearing it here. Not a bad tune… but I’m not sure it’s a memorable one, have to say.

73. ‘Renegade’ by Big Red Machine ft. Taylor Swift - so one thing I was kind of worried about with Taylor Swift’s folk pivot last year was that she brought in veterans from the indie scene to help make her albums, but that would be as far as it went; which happens a lot for a-list artists who take what they need to make more hits and leave a trail of frustrated artists who thought they had their break on the outside looking in - look at Drake’s career, there’s a lot of them. So I’ll admit I was legit shocked when Taylor Swift threw her support behind Big Red Machine, a collaboration project between Aaron Dessner of The National and Justin Vernon of Bon Iver. They actually put out an album in 2018 that I remember getting zero hype or attention, but it looks like their sophomore album set to release in August doesn’t just have multiple Taylor Swift credits, but also Ben Howard and Sharon Van Etten and Fleet Foxes on it, a much more involved affair - hell, they got a charting single this time, and I heard it was legit good and… yeah, it absolutely is! It plays to a faster, brighter, and more lush tempo than what Swift’s albums were, but in terms of its instrumental palette it’s in the same territory - liquid guitars, mellotron, a sputtering drum machine playing off the synth bass, Swift’s huskier vocals playing against Vernon’s lower register, and an emotional complexity that I like from the both of them! It hits the tough point of those in relationships who like to tough it out and go it alone, and trying to untangle whether the flailing distance is a defense mechanism brought by trauma or real antipathy, and how much any of that matters to a partner who is losing patience despite their best efforts to provide affection, especially when they’re getting hurt too. I like how angular and jagged the song feels, where nobody is precisely likable, but there’s a reality to the scene has a lot of layers. That said, I’m not quite over the moon about it - it doesn’t have the climax of a song like ‘exile’ and once the groove locks in, the swell of strings doesn’t quite do enough to make this hit harder. Don’t get me wrong, this is really good and has me curious to check out whatever the hell Big Red Machine turns out to be… but even then it feels a little more like Swift’s song than theirs, and as such it’s good, but it could have been great.

49. ‘Wasting Time’ by Brent Faiyaz ft. Drake - I’m not sure where to start with this one. Is it the long-overdue Brent Faiyaz push with the Drake cosign and The Neptunes on production, or do we highlight that outside of Drake rapping over the remix of ‘Lemon’ he’s never really worked with The Neptunes all that much, which could make for an interesting experiment? And… well, I hate to say it sounds exactly like what you think it would, but it kind of does - the elegant strings work off of Pharrell’s more distinctive snares and chalky hi-hats and lumpy bass, Brent Faiyaz dropping into a delicately layered few verses and gentle hook as he tries to coax this girl to waste her time with him instead of the other guys around her, including giving her all the space she needs… and then Drake shows up to step over all the lines when it comes to how much space this girl really has - why are you spying on her ex-roommate and meandering through your usual state of paranoia when midway through your verse you’re trying to call out her passive aggression and how she feels she’s being attacked, which according to you in between bragging about the cars you put her in, is just part of being in a relationship with you? Way to kill the vibe, Drake, I’m beginning to think that the cars and added social media attention aren’t worth your baggage - shame, because the rest of the song with Brent Faiyaz is really good, and if they choose to remix this… honestly, my mind immediately goes to 6LACK sounding great on it, but believe it or not I think Big Sean would sound good on this too, especially if he brought Jhene along… or hell, if just Jhene showed up that’d be fine too.

14. ‘Am I The Only One’ by Aaron Lewis - I feel I need to preface this with something I’ve said before: I didn’t have an angry white boy phase, by extension I jumped right past mainstream rock radio into metal, I missed the entire wave in the early-to-mid 2000s that didn’t get pop crossover, and as such, I only came back to hear those acts later and with no nostalgia. So I get some of the defenses of Staind… but this band sucked, especially when they started getting rock radio play, and I don’t think even those defenders are coming around for their frontman Aaron Lewis doing his milquetoast “outlaw” country schtick, which has attracted very mixed reviews from the country fans who have given him a chance on record and even worse for his live show, notorious for being lazy, hectoring, and increasingly loaded with self-aggrandizing jingoism. Now I want to stress that I haven’t had to care about any of this: Staind hasn’t put out an album in a decade, I don’t seek out his music, and since it doesn’t chart, I was content to leave it moldering among his dwindling relevance… and this this happened. For context, it’s charting on simply massive sales, a bit of streaming, and nothing else - like most charting songs from the right I don’t expect it to have lasting presence, although it is interesting to see the difference between Tom MacDonald doing it on his own with no label versus this having the might of Big Machine and Valory behind it - and the song itself… well, of course it’s bad, but in a different way. With Tom MacDonald you can at least laugh at how much he tries to frame his reactionary nonsense with something in the vague area code of logic and deeper thought, but with Lewis it’s just sad and pathetic - there’s literally lines about him turning into his dad and shouting at his TV, all against a mostly acoustic backdrop that doesn’t match all of his cursing at all! Honestly, when it start circling around very broad, jingoistic statements about bleeding for the flag and then cussing out his kids tearing down what his generation built, all circling around feelings that it’s disrespecting the troops, and it feels like an inarticulate shout of FOX News-fueled rage that he can’t contextualize or explain, which makes the details very telling. The statues coming down were those erected commemorating the Confederacy, built badly decades later to reinforce Jim Crow, so if you’re screaming about disrespecting the flag, shouldn’t you be happy the traitors lose their idols? And then there’s the line on the bridge, where he quits singing along whenever he hears a Springsteen song - and it’s not even because he finally grasped the satire of ‘Born In The USA’, this apparently was because he heard about Bruce Springsteen on Obama’s podcast - kind of shocking you didn’t know the blue collar kid from New Jersey who’s been writing these themes his entire career wasn’t a Republican. But more importantly, on the one hand you have celebrated heartland rock icon Bruce Springsteen, on the other you have the former frontman of Staind - Lewis, if you’re asking me to make a choice, you lose. What saddens and scares me a bit is that to a lot of people who only get their news from one source and never bother to check for more, Lewis’ rage is familiar; unfocused, reactionary, attempting macho bravodo, and deeply misinformed, but there’s a lot of white folks for which this might be their monologue. Ideally, this goes no further - the kids will make sure of that.

So obviously, Aaron Lewis gets the worst of the week, but I think I’m gonna give Dishonourable Mention to ‘A-O-K’ by Tai Verdes - there’s something cloying about the presentation that really rubs me the wrong way, I really hope it doesn’t pick up steam. But the best of the week overshadows all of this easy, with the Honourable Mention going to ‘Renegade’ by Big Red Machine ft. Taylor Swift, and the best to ‘You Should Probably Leave’ by Chris Stapleton - just an awesome song, really hope it sticks around. Next week… well, odds are there’ll be another BTS track, but it looks like we’re slowing down for a bit. Stay tuned to see if I wind up wrong…