billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - january 14, 2023

Weeks like this are fundamentally frustrating, because on some level this would just be a regular Billboard week with a modest number of new arrivals… except that with the mass exodus of holiday music, nearly every song picked up gains, there’s a bunch of returns - several of which you can argue should not be here - and it really just become a bookkeeping reset button because in recent years Billboard has not figured out how to handle holiday music effectively. And it doesn’t really make for an interesting episode for me to just rattle off the new placements of the entire Hot 100, because outside of the top 10, there are literally only three SZA album bomb tracks that skirt the classification of a gain, a return, or a new song on the charts!

This makes the top 10 a little awkward, because as I predicted ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift is back at #1, mostly because she has an entrenched radio margin and good sales and streaming never went away, which is basically why she was able to hold over ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras up to #2, which lags Swift across the board. Then we have ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA up to #3 thanks to huge streaming… but effectively nothing else, and that margin is more fragile compared to ‘I’m Good (Blue)’ by David Guetta and Bebe Rexha up big to #4, even if its radio seems to have peaked. Then there’s ‘Rich Flex’ by Drake and 21 Savage up to #5 in a similar state as SZA, although it’s finally gotten some radio, which is something I can also say about ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd rising to #6 - hell, I can see this pick up even faster, this has pop appeal. Speaking of which, ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles is back at #7, mostly because this week it got a huge boost thanks to year-end radio countdowns that died off pretty fast as the new year kicked into gear on the tracking week, which isn’t something I can say for ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd hitting #8 - a song from 2016 in the top 10 because it went viral months ago and now it’s gotten radio stability, I wish was surprised by this anymore. Then we’ve got ‘Bad Habit’ by Steve Lacy at #9 - mostly this high still because streaming and radio are shockingly stable - and ‘CUFF IT’ by Beyonce at #10 also having radio stability, albeit shockingly weak streams.

This would normally take us to our losers and dropouts… except there are none worth talking about, it’s just the exodus of holiday music en masse, with a mass influx of gains flooding into the gaps. If anything it makes a lot more sense to talk about our returns, and how they basically fall into two categories. On the one hand you have songs that are basically using the newfound space to pick up traction for 2023, which is something I actually really like about the new year - they may have broken late last year but now they can fill in the gaps… or at least they would if not for the second group, which are long-running radio songs that programmers are not rotating out. To Billboard’s credit, they seem to be enforcing their rules somewhat consistently - no songs over 52 weeks returned below the 25, no songs over twenty weeks returned below the top 50 - but it’s maddening as someone who follows the charts because it points to systemic issues; since it takes so much streaming to seriously move the needle without radio, the inertia of nationwide consolidated radio playlists refusing to cycle songs out because taking a chance could compromise callout scores - or more likely rado executives did not get the necessary kickback by the labels to platform new material, at least not in a timely manner around the holidays. So while Billboard feels woefully behind the times and should encourage charts moving more freely, they’re a record keeping service that exposes the flaws and failures of the industry, and it’s just frustrating for me who wants to see new music get a platform. So when you add in year-end countdowns, that’s effectively why ‘I Like You (A Happier Song)’ by Post Malone and Doja Cat is back at 19, or ‘Wasted On You’ and ‘Thought You Should Know’ by Morgan Wallen are at 22 and 33 respectively, or ‘About Damn Time’ by Lizzo is at 26, or ‘Wait For U’ by Future, Tems and Drake is at 28, or ‘Sunroof’ by Nicky Youre and dazy is at 29, or ‘I Ain’t Worried’ by OneRepublic is at 30, or ‘Vegas’ by Doja Cat is at 32, or ‘The Kind Of Love We Make’ by Luke Combs is at 34, or ‘She Had Me At Heads Carolina’ by Cole Swindell at 35, or ‘Unstoppable’ by Sia at 41, or ‘Fall In Love’ by Bailey Zimmerman at 48, or ‘Jimmy Cooks’ by Drake and 21 Savage at 49.

Now to be fair, when you get away from the top 50 things get more interesting. Yes, you have album bomb returns like from Drake and 21 Savage with ‘Pussy & Millions’ with Travis Scott back at 92, ‘On BS’ at 95, and ‘Major Distribution’ at 99, or from Taylor Swift with ‘Bejeweled’ at 81 and ‘Midnight Rain’ at 97, or more recently from SZA with ‘Open Arms’ with Travis Scott at 85 and ‘Notice Me’ at 100, or even from Lil Baby with ‘Heyy’ at 84 and ‘California Breeze’ at 89 (as well as ‘Freestyle’ back at 72), although more of SZA’s songs were just on the charts over the holidays and picked up this week. But we also have some country returns I didn’t expect like ‘Tennessee Orange’ by Megan Moroney at 58, or ‘What He Didn’t Do’ by Carly Pearce back big to 67, or ‘Wild As Her’ by Corey Kent at 75, or ‘Half Of Us’ by Thomas Rhett and Riley Green at 73, or ‘Out In the Middle’ by the Zac Brown Band at 93. The rest… ‘Hotel Lobby’ by Quavo and the late Takeoff at 55, ‘Snap’ by Rosa Linn at 71, ‘Billie Eilish’ by Armani White at 78, ‘La Bachata’ by Manuel Turizo at 82, and ‘Niagara Falls (Foot Or 2)’ by Metro Boomin, Travis Scott, and 21 Savage at 86.

Now this would be where I’d go over all of the gains… but I’m not going to - it’s over half the Hot 100, even as a level set it doesn’t make much sense, I’d prefer to focus on individual stories worth examining closer. For example, there were a series of songs just holding on that got massive boosts into the top 20 like ‘Something In The Orange’ by Zach Bryan to 11, ‘Made You Look’ by Meghan Trainor to 12, ‘You Proof’ by Morgan Wallen to 13, ‘Golden Hour’ by JVKE to 15, ‘Just Wanna Rock by Lil Uzi Vert to 16, ‘Thank God’ by Kane and Katelyn Brown to 17, ‘Super Freaky Girl’ by Nicki Minaj to 18, and ‘Rock and a Hard Place’ by Bailey Zimmerman to 20. Or we could look at all of the Grupo Frontera debuts last week picking up big, like ‘Que Vuelvas’ with Carin Leon to 57 and ‘Bebe Dame’ with Fuerza Regida at 50, or the one continued gain for ‘Hold Me Closer’ by Elton John and Britney Spears likely riding some of that year-end countdown traction to 52. And as always, since country is a radio dominant format that keeps consistent traction, they probably saw the biggest gains overall - ‘Going, Going Gone’ by Luke Combs to 31, ‘Son Of A Sinner’ by Jelly Roll to 36, ‘Wait In The Truck’ by HARDY and Lainey Wilson rising to 38 followed by Lainey Wilson’s ‘Heart Like A Truck’ to 39, ‘Whiskey On You’ by Nate Smith at 47, ‘Down Home’ by Jimmie Allen at 61, and ‘Pick Me Up’ by Gabby Barrett at 63. And there’s actually a few pop songs with interesting traction: ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez at 46 and ‘Escapism’ by RAYE and 070 Shake at 43. The rest is mostly album bomb reshuffling from SZA, Taylor Swift, Metro Boomin and Drake, where the most interesting thing was SZA recovering nearly all of her losses

Hell, that effectively covers the majority of what we have - again, weeks like this are the anomaly, sometimes you have to be creative to keep this moving, let’s get to a list of new arrivals starting with…

98. ‘Players’ by Coi Leray - it’s weird as one of the few people who actually will admit Coi Leray has some potential and talent, because even if it felt like her project last year went nowhere, I did have some modest expectations for this, which was dumped in late November last year and couldn’t get any traction until now. thanks to a bit of TikTok virality. Sadly I kind of get why, because with the wiry synth sample liberally pulling from Grandmaster Flash’s ‘The Message’, it places Coi Leray trying to dive into sneering pop rap closer to Latto or Doja Cat, and she just doesn’t have the attitude or vocal flair to really sell it, not helped by some pretty generic flexing. I’m not gonna say it’s precisely bad - it’s well-produced at least - but it’s stiff and very obviously trend-chasing in a lane that doesn’t flatter her. Have to call it mediocre.

96. ‘Shut Up My Moms Calling’ by Hotel Ugly - and speaking of songs going viral on Tiktok, I saw this hitting the charts outside of the states and knew this was only a matter of time. And sure enough, we’ve got this mostly unknown duo out of Houston who caught a bit of attention for a song from 2020… and wow, this blows. Yeah, the vocal interplay is okay if a bit amateurish and I don’t mind the sinuous groove that’s trying to cultivate a spare vibe, but then we get those slightly haunted synths and what sounds like the babbling of a Muppet baby and I just clock out, made all the more obnoxious by the mewling desire to get this increasingly distant girl to come home despite the fact he outright admits he’s a lousy lover. There’s something noxious and almost pathetic about how this song frames itself - it’s somewhere between ripping off Steve Lacy and the wave of simping pop songs that dropped in late 2019 - apparently this one sucked so much we’re only getting the dregs now. But yeah, this is crap, and while we’re here…

88. ‘Here With Me’ by d4vd - yeah, I saw this charting worldwide, I knew this was coming too - frankly I’m more surprised that the virality seems to have some legs despite the astoundingly crap production of ‘Romantic Homicide’, so here’s attempt #2… and you know, credit where it’s due, this is better. The drums are underpowered but they sound at least credible to match the more liquid, beachy guitars where once again I can tell when someone is trying to openly rip off Steve Lacy, where the more interesting guitar meandering unfortunately can’t help a pretty basic vocal line. But the lyrics are fine enough - clumsy in trying to capture that quiet lovestruck moment, but it feels sincere, and there’s a bit of charm to it. I’m not saying this kid d4vd has a lot of potential, but if he gets the right polish he can make tolerable music - no real complaints here, it’s fine.

87. ‘The Color Violet’ by Tory Lanez - look, I know everyone is just expecting me to dump on Tory Lanez right now - after the conclusion of his trial in 2022, it would be extremely easy. But his consequences are tangible beyond what I can say - I know how this can end careers, and I have far harsher words for the figures in hip-hp and “journalism” who would prefer to make Megan Thee Stallion’s life a living hell rather acknowledge the sad reality of this case, where many of them will throw Tory Lanez aside like the manosphere does with so many of their martyrs. It’s frustrating for me because I also don’t like his music for different reasons - I’ve never been a fan in the years I’ve covered him, I’ve found him derivative and lyrically sketchy, so now going to this song from late 2021… god this is such an obvious ripoff of The Weeknd. And it’s just obvious - the drums sound ripped from 80s synthpop with all the power ripped out, the vocal inflections are lifted straight from After Hours as well as the runny synths, except the mix quality is just cruddier with messy blending, and then there’s the writing. It’s clearly trying to evoke George Michael with the sax and the obvious ‘Careless Whisper’ references, but the glamour or mystique never materializes - the first half wants to create that moody bad boy, the second wants to show him heartbreak on the road, but the song never builds the intensity or momentum to pay it off, it’s trying to be too cool and it doesn’t work. Again, it’s the same problem I’ve always had with Tory Lanez - honestly not a bad song, just painfully mediocre, derivative and underwhelming, I’m not returning to it.

69. ‘Handle On You’ by Parker McCollum - you know, Parker McCollum’s mainstream pivot hasn’t had the sort of legs I’ve hoped for just yet - mostly on account of the music not reaching the tier of his indie material when I was covering him years ago - but the industry appears to still be trying to make him a thing, so I was curious about this song… and yeah, it’s decent. The cymbals feel a bit loud and unbalanced compared to the snares and kick and more liquid guitars - you’d think a drinking commiseration song pulling on neotraditional tones with that pedal steel would try to have a bit more flow - but that’s nitpicking as McCollum talks about drinking himself under the table to get over this girl, where there’s a frankly distressing focus on how much he’s drinking to ‘get a handle’ on his emotions that’s not quite as clever as it thinks it is. It also feels a little short without a proper bridge even if the instrumental after the second chorus was nice… I’m just irked because while this is fine, I know he’s capable of better.

68. ‘Bloody Mary’ by Lady Gaga - …okay, why not, album cut from a Lady Gaga album from twelve years ago going viral, I guess if Lady Gaga’s going to get hits, why not this way - I personally would have preferred ‘Hair’ or ‘Americano’ from Born This Way given that my favourite songs ‘You And I’, ‘Edge Of Glory’ and ‘Judas’ were already decent hits, but trust someone who was around for this album, it could have been far worse - the electroclash moments where the techno grooves and synths throw up over each other have aged really haphazardly. But alright, ‘Bloody Mary’ - I liked this back in 2011 and I think I still like it now with the hollowed gothic vocal inflections around the plucked strings and Catholic operatic flair that Gaga commands well, even as she slightly subverts it with touches of punk subversion in playing the role Mary Magdalene in this love story with a few screams. It’s very Madonna for both good and bad - a rock solid hook, commitment to atmosphere, transgressive Catholic angst, but… I mean, it’s not that edgy, I’ve heard this before and I wish this went way harder, not helped by this era of electropop having frankly terrible bass and underpowered percussion. Let’s be real, this is going viral for the exact same reasons ‘Unholy’ went viral, and while this is better, it almost feels a little built for TikTok in how the ideas completely run out by the bridge, In other words, it’s an album cut that is going viral more on aesthetic than anything else - if the kids are now suddenly into “transgressive” neo-Catholic goth music, I’ve just heard better than this.

Still, it’s easily the best song this week, with the worst… ‘Shut Up My Moms Calling’ by Hotel Ugly, and I’m really hoping this winds up a minor hit and no further. Next week, maybe a shred of normalcy as we move out of the holidays proper, we’ll have to see.