billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - february 25, 2023

It’s rare when Billboard BREAKDOWN gives me a short week exactly when I might need it, but it looks like we got just that here, and right after I came back from vacation with a massive backlog, and most of the songs appear to be pretty good - hey, sometimes things fall out right once in a while!

So alright, let’s keep this on pace, top 10, where once again ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus has a grip on #1, and while it seems like it’s slipping a bit in losing the top spot on streaming, she still dominates YouTube, sales and now sits at the very top on the radio. Hate to say it, but ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA doesn’t really have enough to get there as of yet at #2 - streaming is incredibly solid, but she just can’t close the margin on airplay and sales fast enough. There’s still a tangible lead over ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, The Weeknd and 21 Savage up to #3, though, which spent the week battling Miley for radio supremacy despite the fact its streaming is slipping… which is not something I would say about our new top 10 entry, and one that does kind of surprise me: ‘Boy’s A Liar, Pt. 2’ by PinkPantheress and Ice Spice at #4, pretty much just on streaming! This was not a breakthrough I saw coming, but when your YouTube is robust and you have TikTok virality, you can make it work. It smashed past ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen down to #5 - it held on sales but streaming took a dip, and this is what happens when the radio is just not there to support your momentum. Compare to ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras sliding to #6, where it’s on the downswing everywhere but radio is actually taking its sweet time getting rid of it, much to my shock given how much controversy it continues to stir up among religious conservatives - good lord, even when the Satanism is done badly they’re throwing a hissy fit! This leads to ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd, which seems to be on the downswing on the radio, but apparently The Weeknd has now thrown up his hands and just embraced the old song as a single so apparently there may be a remix coming with Ariana Grande. Ideally the time to have rolled out that remix would have been a few weeks ago, but I think The Weeknd is still bitter Dawn FM didn’t do more, and I can’t really blame him. Then we have ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift down at #8 - definitely on the decline everywhere, it’s just the margins keeping the falloff slow for now - followed by a dip for ‘CUFF IT’ by Beyonce to #9 as the sales margin evaporated and the radio is sliding, and ‘I’m Good (Blue)’ by David Guetta and Bebe Rexha at #10, which the radio seems to be dumping as fast as possible.

Speaking of which, losers and dropouts! Not much at all in the latter category - really just ‘Whiskey On You’ by Nate Smith falling well short of any year-end list - but if you look at the declines, this is the week that tested Morgan Wallen’s staying power because he saw big losses: ‘I Wrote The Book’ at 56, ‘One Thing At A Time’ at 59, ‘Everything I Love’ at 67, and ‘Tennessee Fan’ down to 100. Hell, it’s hard to complain about the majority of our losers here: ‘The Color Violet’ by Tory Lanez at 77, ‘Shut Up My Moms Calling’ by Hotel Ugly at 83, ‘Forget Me’ by Lewis Capaldi at 93, the only ones I’m warmer to here are ‘Love Language’ by SZA at 91, ‘X Si Volvemos’ by Karol G and Romeo Santos dipping off the debut to 79, ‘Growin’ Up And Gettin’ Old’ by Luke Combs at 74, and ‘Dawns’ by Zach Bryan and Maggie Rogers slipping to 61 - and let’s face it, it’s a miracle the song is lasting this high anyways!

Now for returns and gains, where in the former category we did see ‘Dancin’ In The Country’ by Tyler Hubbard at 92 and ‘Forever’ by Lil Baby ft. Fridayy at 86, but the big story here is Rihanna, courtesy of her Super Bowl performance. From that, ‘Umbrella’ with Jay-Z came back to 37, ‘Diamonds hit 44, and ‘We Found Love’ with Calvin Harris hit 48, with ‘Lift Me Up’ in our gains boosting to 41. But I don’t expect it to last, and in our gains the bigger story might be Ice Spice! I already mentioned ‘Boy’s A Liar’, but ‘In Ha Mood’ also saw a spike off the debut to 70… she might be sticking around more than some think or wanted… I just personally wish her music was more interesting, that’s all.

But now onto a thankfully limited list of new arrivals, starting with…

99. ‘Painting Pictures’ by Superstar Pride - have to be honest, when I saw this song debut, I didn’t really know what to make of it. Superstar Pride is a southern rapper who went viral with this song that dropped last year on an EP, apparently he has management connections to YoungBoy Never Broke Again, and this… well, the first thing that jumps out is the Faith Evans sample that flips across keys against the sharper, heavier trap percussion that’s actually pretty well-produced, and Superstar Pride’s vocal tone reminds me a little of when DaBaby tried to be serious, except with a more sober, mature focus. Well, I say that off the hook where he’s talking about avoiding violence with no handouts, eventually giving back to his family, but the verse says he didn’t have a dad which openly contradicts his hook and there’s also a much more sour angle to his ‘that’s not my son’ vibe that for an unknown rapper out the gate feels sketch; that’s normally a bar you get when you’re famous, not right now. Honestly I hear potential, but it’s unrefined - if he gets some solid artistic development, he’ll probably do alright.

84. ‘Fix’n To Break’ by Bailey Zimmerman - I’ll be honest, I’m stunned we’re getting new Bailey Zimmerman songs - I figured once the industry finally threw all the weight back behind Morgan Wallen any traction he’d have would evaporate, but this might be tied to an upcoming album and they’re giving him more runway. And good thing too, because this song is quite good - it appears Zimmerman finally has more of a production budget to give his warmer organic rollick and pedal steel some presence and multi-tracking his backing vocals gives his rasp more presence - I’d almost place them closer to indie folk territory and that’s a nice touch. And I like the lyrics too, the sort of confrontation when they’re both stretched to the limit with the metaphor of a house they’re building and the question of whether it’s all worth pushing forward, and while he’s confident in his feelings, he’s placing the decision up to her. It’s honestly more mature than what I expected from Zimmerman, but I’d argue he sells it well - no idea if it’s going to see any sustained traction, but I like this, check it out!

52. ‘Special’ by Lizzo ft. SZA - oh look, Lizzo picks one of the worst songs on her new album to push as a single, albeit with a big remix from SZA to get it over the hump. And you know, there’s parts of this song that I think are okay - the splashy horns are nice, there’s not much of a groove but the production doesn’t feel as plastic and I’ll give Max Martin credit for that. And SZA absolutely makes this song better both through sheer vocal presence but also how it changes the content, mostly because she admits some tangible vulnerability opening up the track, calling out those who lack empathy even as she’s trying to move forward - she sounds like someone who could use the self-esteem anthem that Lizzo can respond with, that’s a nice touch. The problem is that this otherwise feels really basic and clunky in execution, especially with that hook, and Lizzo bringing up getting canceled for ‘wanting to change’, which is a more complicated mess than this song is equipped to approach. At least now there’s some emotional dynamics being recognized, it makes this tolerable… but I’m still not a big fan, have to admit it.

38. ‘Lost’ by Linkin Park - I’m honestly surprised we didn’t get songs like this sooner. For those who don’t know, Linkin Park back in the early 2000s were notorious for making dozens of songs that would never make the album because the pop hooks were not strong enough. This song, for instance, was part of the reportedly more limited Meteora sessions in 2002, repackaged for the 20th anniversary of the album… which fine, I’m more tolerant of this than the posthumous graverobbery that happens for so many rappers, the band did finish these decades ago, which is why snippets of this track have been leaking since the 2000s. And it certainly does feel like something from that era with a bit of modern gloss polishing up some fine details - the glassy percussion around the rumbling riffs, scratches, and chilly synths, Chester splitting the difference between singing and howling, and the lyrics circling stifling depression and painful memories - it really does sound like something that could be a b-side to ‘Numb’, for instance. But that’s kind of the problem - Meteora is my favourite Linkin Park album and I’d call this a weaker, borderline throwaway song from it - it’s only essential now because we haven’t gotten new music from the band since Chester’s death. It’s not bad, but I wouldn’t call it all that special - not going to complain about quality Linkin Park, but this doesn’t hit greatness, at least for me.

15. ‘Love You Anyway’ by Luke Combs - well, Luke Combs is full on going for that sister album, and I was hearing really positive things about this song going in… and when nearly the first thing I hear is that fiddle impeccably micced opposite rich neotraditional instrumentation and the subtlest of harmonies on the hook, I knew I was a sucker for this immediately, especially for the sort of love song where Combs almost seems to know that the relationship might not work and the breakup will hurt him way more, but he’s going to do it anyway. I especially like how in the second verse how he highlights the tangible risk that in writing the song he could hit a sour note, especially as the words might not match the gravity of how he feels - it reminds me a bit of the sentiment Elton John had the chorus of ‘Your Song’, and if I’m making that comparison, you’ve got something special! If I’m nitpicking, I’d say the melody feels a little conventional, and I’m not sure how much it’ll stick… but man, I can recognize a hot streak when I hear it, this is great!

And yeah, he gets the best of the week, although Bailey Zimmerman really did keep it close. Worst of the week… I was tempted to give it to ‘Special’, but SZA just saves it enough, so ‘Painting Pictures’ by Superstar Pride is probably the most flawed right now. Still, this was a good week - I’m expecting very little to last, but we’ll have to see.