billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - february 19, 2022

The weeks I think won’t wind up that busy, I swear… but no, what appears to be the ‘back to routine’ is a healthy slate of new songs, and I’m shorter on time to get through them than I would like to be, go figure. The funny thing is that outside of that list, the chart seems to have stabilized completely, so maybe it’s just a case of songs not catching traction?

Well anyway, we’re going into our top ten, where sitting at the top is ‘We Don’t Talk About Bruno’ by the Encanto Cast, where between unbreakable streaming - mostly courtesy of insane YouTube - great sales, and even fledging radio growth, I’m not seeing what force is going to break this… but make no mistake, our big new debut definitely tried, as Nicki Minaj and Lil Baby hit #2 with ‘Do We Have A Problem’, backed up by better sales… but weaker streaming and no real radio either, so it lost on the margins. All of this was enough to push back ‘Easy On Me’ by Adele to #3, which seems to be on its way out at this point: sales and streaming are falling back, but it still has a thick radio margin so it’s going to take time to drop off. It’s certainly stronger than ‘Heat Waves’ by Glass Animals at #4, which might have better streaming but weaker sales and it lags enough on the radio, where it’s starting to lose too. Granted, so is ‘Stay’ by Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber at #5, which is also falling off on streaming and the radio… which takes us to ‘Super Gremlin’ by Kodak Black at #6, where the streaming remains as solid as ever, but is the limited radio growth going to push it enough in time? I’d still put smarter money on ‘abcdefu’ by GAYLE at #7, because while the streaming is weaker, the sales are actually there and the radio is starting to surge properly, so this will be a numbers game in the next week or so. And that comfortably places it over ‘Shivers’ by Ed Sheeran at #8 - very much in the middle of its own collapse - and that takes us to a new top ten entry and one I did not see coming: ‘Ghost’ by Justin Bieber at #9. This has had a long and slow radio run, and while I think as a late single it’s not going to do much more without sales or streaming, it was just enough to claw over ‘Surface Pressure’ by Jessica Darrow, which is squatting on a ridiculous amount of streaming but isn’t going much further.

And on that matter, losers and dropouts! The majority of the latter category are mostly the debuts from last week, but we did see ‘No Love’ by Summer Walker and SZA, ‘Take My Breath’ by The Weeknd, and ‘If I Didn’t Love You’ by Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood make their exits. And the losers don’t seem to have much for them either: off the debut ‘High’ by The Chainsmokers crashed to 82 and ‘Rumors’ by Gucci Mane and Lil Durk hit 63, and we saw continued losses for ‘Too Easy’ by Gunna and Future at 92 and ‘Cold December’ by Rod Wave at 76. The only other two losers are both country that overperformed expectations, where ‘Buy Dirt’ by Jordan Davis and Luke Bryan will probably net a year-end list spot while ‘Whiskey And Rain’ by Michael Ray falls short - good.

What I find interesting here is that there were barely any gains or returns this week - if that’s not a sign that chart has stabilized, I don’t know what is, but the only comeback was ‘Moth To A Flame’ by Swedish House Mafia and The Weeknd at the very bottom with 100, and the one gain was ‘Enemy’ by Imagine Dragons and JID up to 31 - what shocks me with this one is that the radio is not really behind it, it’s streaming… which means there are people who willingly endorse it. I’m assuming the majority of which is crossover from Arcane, but it’s not like we made the original Pokemon Theme a hit in my day, and it’s eons better than this - although fun fact, it actually charted in the top 5 on the dance singles charts in the year 2000, which I feel only raises more questions!

But moving away from all that, we’ve got a solid ten new arrivals, starting with…

97. ‘When I’m Gone’ by Alesso & Katy Perry - this is going to sound harsh, but here it goes: I don’t think there’s going to be a Katy Perry revival. Not saying that she’s going to stop releasing music or that it’s guaranteed to suck if she does, but outside of her diehard fanbase and stan circles onlinse, I’m not sure she’s got the cult of personality to ride consistent mainstream crossover like some of her peers, so to hear her working with Swedish producer-DJ Alesso isn’t surprising. And I have to be honest, even if I was going for a comeback, I’m not sure I would have done it with going straight for the sort of minor-key, piano-driven, pulsating, pitched-down house where it becomes abundantly clear just how much Perry’s rough edges vocally are compensated for by pressing through layers of synthetic effects and compression. Honestly, I’d argue that her vocals are outright overproduced here, sapping away the personality she does have and that doesn’t work well for a song where she’s playing the ‘you’ll miss me when I’m gone’ card… which I’m not sure is true. Yes, the melody on the hook is sticky, but what bugs me is that there’s nothing about this song that convinces me only Katy Perry could make this… it’s not going to be hard to let this one go..

88. ‘Hate Our Love’ by Queen Naija & Big Sean - I’ll be honest, I’m surprised folks are still trying to make Queen Naija a thing; the minor success she had was in 2018, and it certainly wasn’t that memorable for me, so colour me surprised that not only did she put out an album in 2020, she actually got decent reviews and it sold remarkably well, with several songs placing on the R&B charts but not quite crossing over. So okay, team up with Big Sean - and leave me wondering why Jhene Aiko isn’t the pairing here, outside of maybe Sean throwing a favour to another Detroit artist… and it’s okay, I guess? The watery flip of the Bobby Glenn sample is actually really nice, and both artists play pretty well to a love song that’s mostly about flipping off everyone who hates that they’re together, given that they think they’re built for the long haul. I actually like Big Sean’s bridge a solid bit here, where he does highlight the places where there was tension and they did the work to fix things - although the verse seems very built for a duet with Jhene instead, and as good as Queen Naija sounds here, I don’t think I’d complain if she was replaced. I think my bigger frustration is that she doesn’t bring much that’s interesting in terms of vocal timbre or style; there’s a lot of R&B songs that sound just like this, and while it’s fine, I just don’t think it’s that distinct, that’s all.

87. ‘Doja’ by $NOT & A$AP Rocky - you know, if I was in a relationship with Rihanna, I’m not sure what my impetus would be to release music at all, especially a duet with $NOT of all people who got a modicum of traction off that guest verse from last year but not much else. And… well, I can see this working to the point - the heavy bass backing up the chalky snares and that operatic vocal sample, pushing this into pretty dark and menacing territory - but then you have to deal with both MCs on the song and it doesn’t quite work. Doja Cat herself already clapped back at $NOT for his hook and he had to backpedal - mostly because I’d argue she’s a better rapper than him and certainly more famous - but he’s also obviously playing a villain all about stealing your girl and being a dick to her, and I think my bigger problem is that he’s not interesting or creative at it beyond the standard gunplay and drugs. And then there’s Rocky… I’m not a prude when it comes to certain bars by any means, but Rocky seems to have interpreted his bad guy assignment by going to straight to the sort of swear that’s just lazy… and saying that he fucked his first MILF at ten years old. And I get that I might be asking too much to expect more here - A$AP Rocky has spent his entire career coasting on style over substance - but this is bluntly lazy and just isn’t all that impressive. I’d skip it.

78. ‘Black Summer’ by Red Hot Chili Peppers - you know, there is a part of me that’s still kind of impressed that the Red Hot Chili Peppers of all rock bands can still nab actual charting presence with new singles, especially given that John Frusciante has rejoined the band. So I was kind of excited to see if this would be at least as good as ‘Dark Necessities’, which was great enough that it irks me to this day 2016 couldn’t give it a proper chart run… and unfortunately this is no ‘Dark Necessities’. That’s not saying there isn’t a decent amount to praise - Rick Rubin’s production gives the song an immediacy it kind of needs and immediately places you in mind of their glory years, and while the less-funky ballad side of Red Hot Chili Peppers isn’t quite my thing, I did appreciate Frusciante’s solo and the bassline simmers well. I guess my frustration with this is for as much as the band is obviously trying to revive memories of their best, choosing to go for such a melancholic single about the fires in Australia and environmental collapse feels kind of clunky, especially how they reference Greta Thunberg and censorship and then point fingers at China as a primary culprit, which… come on, their industry is just as dependent on the American market of excess and consumption, this feels shallow. Yes, overall it’s got a good sound and I can appreciate the Chilis getting back into their groove, but my favourite era from this band was their wilder 80s streak, and I’m not sure this plays to the best of their strengths. Not a bad track, but I was hoping for more.

77. ‘emo girl’ by Machine Gun Kelly & WILLOW - I saw so many people get so angry about this collaboration, as if it wasn’t the most obvious team-up in recent memory. Granted, I was coming at this as someone who’s appreciated MGK’s pop punk pivot more than WILLOW’s, but hey, they both have a personality and Travis Barker was still producing and…. wow, this is generic as all hell. On the one hand, it’s definitely the right choice for MGK to mostly play second fiddle to WILLOW here, and it’s a good balance for how they both want emo girls, but on the other hand it kind of feels like it’s just running through emo cliches cribbed from Tumblr and there’s just not much to hook me with it, especially as I’m fairly certain this melody was stolen from Blink-182’s garbage can - and by that, I mean even more than usual. More than anything it’s giving me the sense that Tickets To My Downfall was a fluke at best, and while I predicted that myself… I’m still kind of disappointed that this isn’t more interesting. Coasting more on personality than anything, and while that’s enough to get it in the door for me, I don’t think I’m going to go back to this much.

73. ‘Scared Money’ by YG ft. J. Cole & Moneybagg Yo - and here I was hoping for the old NxWorries song to chart off of TikTok… but no, we got this instead, and wow, this is rough. You know it’s a really bad sign when Moneybagg Yo has the most competent verse on the song in terms of structuring his flow, even if J. Cole probably has the most naturalistic charisma and everyone is slipping off the beat here. Frankly, I’m shocked how sloppy YG sounds opposite this lumpy beat and piano line - he can’t even structure his cadence so the line ‘scared money don’t make no money’ fits on the beat on the hook, and that’s after a verse where he talks about when he gets the drop on the opp, he’s going to ‘dora explore it’ and have the line ‘walk in best dressed but I’m no Kid Cudi’… I don’t think anyone was expecting that out of you, YG. But outside of that, bog standard flex with guns without even much in the way of brand names, so you’re stuck focusing on how none of these guys are rapping all that well here, and it’s jarring as hell. So yeah, maybe J. Cole is just playing down to his peers, but this sucks - next!

52. ‘she’s all i want to be’ by Tate McRae - So I have no clue what Tate McRae is doing. Her label wants Billie Eilish, which is what they got on ‘you broke me first’ and to the lesser extent ‘Feel Like Shit’ which honestly reminded me a lot more of Alessia Cara and Camila Cabello, but her collaboration cuts - and we’ve gotten a decent number of them charting in Canada - haven’t really played for that territory, and now with this one getting TikTok traction… and I’m not at all sure about how I feel about this one. On the one hand, about half of the guitar timbres Greg Kurstin provides gives this a bouncy pop rock vibe - yeah, there’s way more synth slathered all over this and the groove isn’t as potent as it should be - and I don’t really mind the lyrics. Yes, obvious cribbing from Olivia Rodrigo in its longing, especially if this guy led her on, but there’s a place for a song that has someone feeling like a wannabe compared to the girl she wants to be… but that also exposes the huge problem that she really sounds like one. This is the big risk that comes with chasing the husky voiced pop acts of the past six to eight years, that when the song demands belting or more presence they sound hopelessly outclassed by the singers who have the pipes and energy - even if Billie doesn’t like it, she can do it, whereas Tate McRae projects a lot more weakness than you’d like. In other words, give this song to a pop star who has more range, this could be great… as it is, it’s okay at best.

43. ‘Cigarettes’ by Juice WRLD - did we really need an extended version of Juice WRLD’s second posthumous album, was the craven exploitation not bad enough the first time? Anyway, this is a cut that first leaked in October of 2018 but has picked up a bit of a reputation as a fan favourite for those in the know… and funnily enough, I kind of get it with this? Yeah, it’s not far removed from Juice WRLD’s other love songs with the languid guitars not exactly blending well with the trap beat, and the heavy reliance on undercooked repetition can make it feel a little indistinct, but there’s a yearning melancholy to it and I like the central metaphor of smoking with regards to literal heartache - I remember Logic doing something similar way back in 2014, and it worked there too. So… I’m not going to say this is great or all that special, but I get why this works, fine enough song.

40. ‘Don’t Play That’ by King Von & 21 Savage - and in the second of our posthumous entries here, and one I didn’t really expect - yeah, King Von had a following, but he was only just breaking out, and you’d think they’d have made a move to push a track sooner than well over a year after he was killed. And when the buzz was suggesting this was pretty bad, I braced myself here… and yeah, this is pretty damn bad, mostly because it plays to none of what King Von’s strengths were. This guy was a storyteller who had some pretty visceral instincts, so naturally what you want to do is put him with a stock triplet flow on production with one of the most grating synths in recent memory even before they start pitching it up, and that’s not even getting into the weirdly airy percussion that has no impact. But I think the bigger problem is that it’s trying vaguely to be a sex jam with the most notable references being to girls playing with their guns and 21 stealing one of his opps’ girls - I’ve said it many times, but 21 should not make sex jams, it’s been years and it’s not in his wheelhouse whatsoever. So I’m left with why they thought this was even a good idea - a basic, not especially likable song that doesn’t flatter anyone on it, dead or alive, distributed by EMPIRE who likes to flagrantly violate fair use provisions and who’ll file copyright takedowns en masse, so if this video disappears, it’ll be because of this; doesn’t make it any less crap.

2. ‘Do We Have A Problem?’ by Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Baby - you know, at least for Nicki this is a step up? Granted, it’s a step over 6ix9ine, but in a way it makes sense for Lil Baby to work with Nicki Minaj, in that they’re both largely focused on their own ascendency and have been wildly uneven in realizing it. So when I say this is way better than I thought it would be, I mean it - the cascading melody off the percussion that’s trying to split between trap and new york drill is really good for setting up the hook, where of course NIcki is going to sing on it where that might not have been necessary, but she doesn’t go overboard and helps add contrast to a sharper, more violent verse where it might feel more basic than what she usually delivers, but she’s got more than enough personality to nail it effectively. I don’t know why she chose to simplify her flow for the final verse, but this is a song that plays into aggressive attitude and NIcki can be really good at that… and thus it’s kind of a shame Lil Baby doesn’t do more. Oh, the flex is fine and he’s sharp enough to keep up, but he doesn’t have the ease or naturalistic charisma to sit opposite Nicki and she kind of runs away with the song, even if it feels lower stakes by her standards. And while I could nitpick and say the percussion sounds cheaper than I’d prefer, overall I think this is pretty damn good.

In fact… and this might surprise some folks - I think ‘Do We Have A Problem’ is the best of the week here, with the Honourable Mention to ‘Black Summer’ by the Red Hot Chili Peppers pretty much on just the guitar solo. Now the worst of the week… oof, we’ve got contenders here, but I’ve giving it to ‘Scared Money’ by YG, J. Cole and Moneybagg Yo because there’s no excuse why it should sound that incompetent - ‘Don’t Play That’ by the late King Von and 21 Savage is getting the Dishonourable Mention mostly on disappointment and that godawful synth. Next week… honestly, I’m not seeing the major album impact, so it might just be another singles rotation, we’ll have to see…