billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - february 15, 2020
I expected this week to be less… normal than it is. I guess some of that might be the result of Lil Wayne not getting the album bomb I was predicting - I at least thought more of his collabs would get her on streaming alone - but if we’re looking for a point in after a surprisingly hectic beginning of the year, settling back into some sort of routine is kind of interesting, especially as I’m not sure when the next major disruption might come.
And that’s relevant when you look at our top ten, which thanks to frankly insane YouTube margins now backed by radio and sales growth, ‘The Box’ by Roddy Ricch rules the #1 with an iron fist. I was skeptical at first when people where predicting this would stick around for months… now I’m pretty convinced it just might. This kind of strands ‘Life Is Good’ by Future ft. Drake at #2, which just cannot keep up in any category despite making respectable radio gains. Of course it’s not going to be threatening ‘Circles’ by Post Malone any time soon at #3, which thanks to a mild sales revival actually retook the top spot on the radio, elbowing back ‘Memories’ by Maroon 5 which started slipping in all categories to #4. Next up - to my welcome surprise - ‘Dance Monkey’ by Tones and I went to #5, because even as radio growth has slowed to a crawl, sales and streaming are still pretty robust. It actually overtook ‘Someone You Loved’ by Lewis Capaldi at #6, which is bleeding hard in all categories - especially sales - and is actually in danger of being overtaken by ‘ROXANNE’ by Arizona Zervas up to #7, mostly thanks to stability on streaming and solid radio growth. Hell, it overtook ‘10,000 Hours’ by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber, which slid to #8 on real radio losses, even despite an okay week on streaming of all things. Finally, holding position we have ‘Don’t Start Now’ by Dua Lipa at #9 - which still has radio momentum and seems to be shoring up its sales and streaming, thank god - and ‘everything i wanted’ by Billie Eilish at #10, which despite relatively underwhelming sales and streaming is getting a pretty major radio push - interesting to see how long that’ll last.
Now on a different note, losers and dropouts seem a bit more scattershot, with the only two in the latter category being ‘Panini’ by Lil Nas X finally making its predicted exit and ‘Graveyard’ by Halsey as her album traction evaporates further… shame, I thought that song had more legs. But our losers are also pretty scattered - off the debut both ‘Anyone’ by Demi Lovato and ‘B.I.T.C.H.’ by Megan The Stallion took sharp hits to 56 and 59 alike, ‘Jerry Sprunger’ by Tory Lanez and T-Pain skidded to 92 off the return, and we saw the gains evaporate for ‘Nobody But You’ by Blake Shelton and Gwen Stefani down at 62, ‘No Idea’ by Don Toliver at 78, and ‘homecoming queen?’ by Kelsea Ballerini at 86 - knew that was too good to last. Then in following its mild album bomb ‘Good News’ by Mac Miller makes its slow decline to 82, and the rest… well, ‘Pu$$y Fairy’ by Jhene Aiko fell to 66, ‘Futsal Shuffle 2020’ by Lil Uzi Vert continued its wild run to 70, ‘Ridin’ Roads’ by Dustin Lynch lost off its album boost to 77, ‘Rare’ by Selena Gomez slid to 97, and ‘U Played’ by Moneybagg Yo and Lil Baby went to 98. What I find most interesting is the dip for ‘Start Wit Me’ by Roddy Ricch and Gunna - I know, bit of an older song of what Roddy Ricch has in circulation, but you’d think the success of ‘The Box’ would give it legs a little longer…
Anyway, I bring this up because our gains and returns are hot garbage, so let’s blow through this fast. In the latter category, ‘ORANGE SODA’ by Baby Keem makes an unwelcome return at 100, and ‘Heartless’ by Diplo and Morgan Wallen is back at 75 - and yet it somehow gets worse because not only is ‘BEST ON EARTH’ by Russ and BIA up to 52, ‘Kinfolks’ by Sam Hunt has suddenly gotten a surge to 34! I have to assume this is rooted in the industry moving up behind him for the album push… why do I have the deep-seated dread this is going to be fucking miserable?
Anyway, let’s put all of that out of our mind and start our new arrivals with…
93. ‘Get Me’ by Justin Bieber ft. Kehlani - do you think Justin Bieber realizes that ‘Yummy’ is terrible and gets why it’s generally underperforming? I ask that honestly, especially because superstars like him are often insulated from true fan reaction and backlash, and when I see the second single being with Kehlani - who I can’t remotely imagine having any interesting in Bieber whatsoever since KYLE’s ‘Playinwitme’, expectations were once again rock bottom. And look, at least on production this is better than ‘Yummy’… but that’s because from Bieber’s cadence to Boi-1da’s presence in the rubbery atmospherics, this sounds like a Drake leftover that swapped out the rap verse for Kehlani and less lyrical detail. Now I will say that Kehlani brings more personality than Bieber has - at least until he opens up his surprisingly decent falsetto for the outro - but it actually works better than I expected in describing the odd sense of surprise that comes with finding more legit chemistry… not much more beyond the attempt at the hookup, but for a low-key second single, this isn’t bad? We’ll see how well it lasts.
89. ‘Nice To Meet Ya’ by Meghan Trainor ft. Nicki Minaj - I’ll be honest, I’m shocked there’s any songs from Meghan Trainor’s new album at all, even with her last-ditch publicity blitz to draw attention to it. And while I could complain about this jacking the title from Niall Horan’s much better song, I think my larger problems come with the painfully cheap-sounding fizzy scratch of clapping percussion and synthetic layers drizzled over Meghan’s voice, and that’s before we get the farty squonk on the hook before the popping bass of the drop. And this is the backtrack to a flex from both of them? I kind of get it from Nicki, who frankly is trying way harder than she needs to here and who can handle off-kilter production, but Meghan Trainor’s flat nasal tone isn’t complimented by anything here, and her flex feels both basic and bizarrely awkward; nothing flattered here whatsoever. So yeah, while it’s not the worst cut from that Meghan Trainor project, it’s still pretty bad even with Nicki’s presence, and I would not put money on it sticking around.
88. ‘Funeral’ by Lil Wayne - so we didn’t really get an album bomb from Lil Wayne this week - in fact, in the songs that blew up, it looks like we got the case of people sampling the first four songs and then bouncing out before the experience got too draining. So let’s start with the album opener ‘Funeral’, which is one of the better cuts thanks to the cascading keys and strings that tilt into slightly darker guitar tones and an oversaturation of gothic, bassy reverb… which then lets Wayne drop into a murderous intro. Now I will say that for as many people as he’s trying to gun down, we’re not so much getting punchlines or a crescendo, and outside of the pretty amusing tomato references to headshots, the song doesn’t really explode or show a ton of interesting wordplay… but hey, it’s just an intro, that can be fine enough if it builds into something better down the line, right? Well…
87. ‘Mama Mia’ by Lil Wayne - okay, honest question: why does it sound like we got a PC Music synth behind this rumbling trap beat for Lil Wayne to spit against, and why doesn’t it ever switch up beyond being an offkey headache? I get that it’s supposed to sound extra and wild to match with Lil Wayne talking about titty-fucking your baby mama while she’s breastfeeding your kid - ew - but am I the only one who hears his voice especially on his second verse sounding like Kendrick? Or how the shit puns have made their return on the first verse along with treating women as so disposable even as he douches their vaginas and cannonballs their faces? Now that’s not saying there aren’t a few cool lines here - ‘big rocks in my mouth, can’t tell how many asteroids I ate’ might be the nicest grill line I’ve heard in years, and nobody can fault Lil Wayne’s creativity here… but when paired with that production and his halting flow where he constantly starts and stops himself, I find myself not enjoying the excess as much as I’d like. So… eh, not for me here, next!
69. ‘King Of My City’ by A Boogie wit da Hoodie - granted, going from too much lyrical personality to none at all is absolutely a downgrade, but I’ll give A Boogie a bit of credit for trying to focus on a single topic with focusing on dominating the Bronx against some jagged, desaturated guitars and a sharper trap skitter. So decent production, sure… but we’re stuck with A Boogie who thinks that dropping out his voice behind his backing vocals for half the hook is an interesting switchup and that the rest of the song he can shout out brand names and shooting people. And look, at this many years in with the lead-up to a new album and with rappers who can flip melodic flows into more interesting, A Boogie runs a serious risk of falling out of the limelight if the content doesn’t evolve, because while this is fine and generally catchy… like most of his stuff, I’m going to forget this in record time.
61. ‘Mahogany’ by Lil Wayne - I’ve seen this song get a lot of praise from those who like Funeral, and I’m a little perplexed as to why that is - the minimalist crooning sample flip isn’t bad into the trap beat, and Lil Wayne’s flow is pretty tight, am I the only one who feels like he’s sounding more like Drake than himself in the flow, especially given the interpolation of ‘Family Feud’, one of his own songs with Drake? And outside of that, what is there much to be said about his bragging here about being faster and ahead of the curve than everyone… when in execution it feels like he’s looking backwards. Now it does have two legit good references - one to shooting Satan in the face and the other saying he’s got napkins to waste, which is the sort of great fine detail that stands out amidst other flexes - but outside of that… eh, not quite feeling more of this, just saying.
60. ‘Physical’ by Dua Lipa - okay, following in the wake of ‘Don’t Start Now’ - which thankfully has grown on me - I was curious what would be coming next from Dua Lipa, especially as she’s the sort of pop star to have staying power… and I’m not at all surprised that she’s doubling down on the sharper, 80s pop groove that inspires a song that openly interpolates the Olivia Newton-John song of the same name. But unlike that song she’s ramped up the tempo, and while she made the comparison to ‘Flashdance’, with the slightly eerier synth and darker warbles it kind of reminds me a little more of ‘Maniac’ minus the guitar solo… and yet in comparison with the huge swell of 'Blinding Lights’, I’m a bit more lukewarm on ‘Physical’, mostly because it feels like the intensity doesn’t really ramp up properly in the melody until the bridge and final hook. Hell, if there was a song that could have used the roaring solo on the outro, it was this one, but as it is… again, it took a while for ‘Don’t Start Now’ to grow on me fully, so I will say it’s good, but I’m not sure it’s great yet. Get back to me in a month or so, that’s all I’m saying.
50. ‘Only The Young’ by Taylor Swift - so one of the themes in that new Taylor Swift documentary was her steady desire and real conflict in possibly getting more political, especially given the broad stripes of her image, where she came from in country, and the very real risk of alienating a huge core audience. But along with the doc we got this song that’s clearly trying to place itself in this territory and… okay, let me get the obvious criticism out of the way, the kid’s choir feels forced and if you were expecting Taylor Swift to get direct and detailed as is her hallmark, that didn’t happen. This song is more about looking to the next generation who have been consistently outnumbered at the polls and not seen any real systemic change, especially from a current establishment content to do nothing and prop up an ignorant status quo - which is about as broad and non-confrontational as you can get in this territory, but since mobilizing our generation to vote generally favours one side over the other side’s suppression, it’ll be seen as more political than it is. So in general a good positive message - and honestly when it comes to the tune and production, a pretty good song too - the clicking oscilation and deeper kickdrum reminds me a bit of ‘Beautiful People’ by Ed Sheeran, but the sweeping swell behind it does build into the brighter keyboard line well. It does feel a little short to explode properly, but as it is… yeah, good tune, and for a loose non-album cut, I like it.
33. ‘I Do It’ by Lil Wayne ft. Big Sean & Lil Baby - am I the only one kind of surprised that this is the only collaboration from Funeral that actually charted, likely most on the presence of Lil Baby of all people - who to the surprise of nobody is the worst part of the song as he sleepwalks through another verse that’s utterly forgettable; it’s almost as if so many rappers took Lil Wayne’s flow and autotuned mumble and proceeded to say nothing with it, or something! And if you’re going to build so much of the song around a hook from Big Sean, you couldn’t bother to give him a verse, even opposite that underweight click of the hi-hat and faded melody? And then we have Lil Wayne… busting down a noose, putting it on his neck, now he’s a nuisance - get it? Or how he thinks bullets going through you is equivalent to being translucent amidst an otherwise tedious flexing verse? That might be the most frustrating thing about this song: if we’re comparing this to other hype anthems that have moved for Lil Wayne, this is just kind of underweight and tepid and seemingly missing a third verse - not terrible by any means, but of all the songs that could have broken through, this isn’t really a good one.
And that ends off this week… yeah, the best goes to ‘Physical’ by Dua Lipa and Honourable Mention to ‘Only The Young’ by Taylor Swift, shocker! But the worst of the week is a bit tougher… I think I have to go with ‘Nice To Meet Ya’ by Meghan Trainor and Nicki Minaj if only on bad production alone, with Dishonourable Mention on ‘Mama Mia’ from Lil Wayne - sorry, one good line doesn’t save you here. Next week… honestly, the charts seem to be stabilizing and I don’t see any major debuts disrupting things, so we’ll have to see!