billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - february 11, 2023

Here’s an observation about the Hot 100 right now: it’s always been true that you need a lot of concentrated promo to get into the upper echelons of the chart, but observing the weird, clunky stasis near the top of the charts compared to the wild flurry in the bottom half tells me that radio entrenchment is a much stronger factor in what actually gets momentum to ascend. Yeah, pure streaming or sales can overwhelm a lot, but breaking into that higher tier with any timeliness feels considerably tougher - and given how slow, outdated, and consolidated terrestrial radio can be, I’m noticing a pattern with otherwise busy weeks just replacing each other rather than driving deeper penetration.

Want proof? Okay, top ten, where for another week ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus holds at #1, and nothing’s really close to challenging it right now: dominant on sales and streaming, radio is surging, the margin is only widening between it and ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA at #2, which has the streams but just can’t chase Miley down on sales or the radio. And I don’t really think ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd up to #3 will do it either - it has that radio lead for now, but lags on streaming and sales. This places ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift firmly on the downswing: streaming seems stable, but the radio and sales are dropping sharply to #4. Then we have ‘Unholy’ by Sam Smith and Kim Petras at #5: sales are good, it picked up streams this week, and while radio is on the downturn, it was mostly holding position better than I expected. Compare this to ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd rising to #6: radio growth is slowing down but still robust, but it did see marginal improvements on streaming - so compare to ‘I’m Good (Blue)’ by David Guetta and Bebe Rexha down to #7 because while it rules the radio, it’s losing everywhere else and is very much on the downswing. Then holding pat we have ‘Rich Flex’ by Drake and 21 Savage at #8 - streaming is locked in and radio is basically inert - and ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles at #9, which is definitely losing radio but at such a slow pace it’s not really threatened. And that opens for our one new arrival: ‘Just Wanna Rock’ by Lil Uzi Vert. I have to admit, I’m kind of stunned it got up this high, but the streaming is on the upswing and more importantly, the radio is onboard with it - it’s really the only way you can get penetration this high and it’s been a long, slow climb!

But that’s my point: this top ten feels shockingly locked in place, with only the most modest of shifts. Compare this to our losers and dropouts, where in the latter category it’s long-running cuts like ‘Vegas’ by Doja Cat finally exiting or losers that I’ve mentioned for weeks that never quite took off, like ‘Half Of Me’ by Thomas Rhett and Riley Green or ‘Star Walkin’ by Lil Nas X. And it’s not like we’re seeing big losers in the top half of the charts either - the biggest drop is off the debut for ‘Knight Crawler’ by Trippie Redd and Juice WRLD falling hard to 93, but the rest aren’t surprising. I called the big loss for ‘Nonsense’ by Sabrina Carpenter to 72 as Billboard, Spotify, and the labels figure out their chicanery, SZA is seeing a few lingering album bomb dips for ‘Blind’ to 68 and ‘Love Language’ to 78, similar case for Metro Boomin for ‘Too Many Nights’ with Don Toliver and Future to 84, and I called ‘Gato de Noche’ by Nengo Flow and Bad Bunny the week it came out as it slid to 97. The only disappointing one here is ‘Heart To Heart’ by Mac Demarco losing its gains to 98, but let’s be real, virality for the indie set doesn’t last.

But it’s not the losers that really deserve scrutiny here, it’s the gains. Not so much the returns - ‘Tennessee Fan’ by Morgan Wallen is back at 92 for some reason, likely due to other Morgan Wallen related activity we’ll examine later, and hell, when you look at our gains he’s got ‘One Thing At A Time’ rising to 53. Then off the debut we have ‘AMG’ by Gabito Ballesteros, Peso Pluma, and Natanael Cano at 79 - again, it’s a crapshoot how much any of these pick up - and ‘Do It Again’ by NLE Choppa and 2Rare to 85 which if you’re looking for a pop crossover I’d say it has a shot. But the songs making more tangible gains into the top 50 because the radio got onboard, with ‘Lavender Haze’ by Taylor Swift looking like her next big push at 19 - would not have been my choice, but whatever - but what’s really notable is ‘Players’ by Coi Leray at 38. I’m a little shocked how well it’s selling, but let’s be real, the only reason this is lasting on the Hot 100 at all is radio crossover presence, chasing pop rap sampling cliches of which I’m lukewarm on at best. I like Coi Leray more than most, but this is not the way I wanted to see her get chart traction, that’s all I’m saying.

But again, we have a pretty stacked list of new arrivals - most of which aren’t getting that deeper penetration with only one limited, glaring exception, but let’s start with…

100. ‘Dancin’ In The Country’ by Tyler Hubbard - so I had a Patron put the Tyler Hubbard album on my schedule and I heard it… and sadly there’s nothing to really say about it - I’ve heard Florida Georgia Line albums, this is not some grand creative pivot beyond a formula that’s pretty tired and running on Hubbard’s charisma. And while I like ‘5 Foot 9’ a lot, this is another side of it where I’m less forgiving: a loose 2-step dance song where it’s nice that Hubbard and his producers finally discovered what a bassline is that still feels pretty damn flimsy, especially with the overprocessed vocals and lyrics that feel recycled from a dozen other Florida Georgia Line songs. I do like that Hubbard sounds like he’s having fun, but I wish the production or content felt a little warmer or more distinct. As it is, I’m not about to complain about it, but I’m also going to forget it in record time.

99. ‘Never Gonna Not Dance Again’ by P!nk - …maybe the problem is that I still care. P!nk has been incredibly hit or miss since she left a lot of rock behind in the early 2010s, that was over ten years ago, but she came back with ‘Irrelevant’ last year and even if the radio didn’t touch it, it was one of my favourite songs of that year! So maybe it set up expectations for that upcoming album that weren’t realistic, especially as this came out a few months later and is only charting now because radio is dragging it up the Hot 100… and look, if I separate from what I wish P!nk was making, this isn’t bad. Max Martin and Shellback are good producers, this sort of light disco is not difficult to pull together for a breezy dance song with a nice bassline and weedy horns, and P!nk has always been a great performer, even if this feels out of her wheelhouse and she’s not quite loose enough to nail this. But what it reminds me most of is ‘Can’t Stop The Feeling’ by Justin Timberlake, the sort of generally tolerable radio fodder where the disposability only highlights what the main artist used to do so well, and at least JT could handle a groove better. And I’ll say it, the phrase ‘never gonna not dance again’ sounds painfully awkward with the double negative - even in her prime P!nk could get awkward with her phrasing, and for a song that’s all about vibes and groove, it only highlights how much this doesn’t work. It’s nowhere close to the worst thing P!nk has ever made, but it might be the most depressing - it’s not good going into your album called TRUSTFALL that I feel this distrustful of what we’ll get.

96. ‘Hey Mor’ by Ozuna ft. Feid - what’s important to note with this single is not Ozuna - I’ve said my piece how I’m no fan of his - but his guest star Feid, a Colombian singer-songwriter who has been racking up the global hits but this is his first breakthrough stateside. And… look, Feid’s slightly more textured and melodic tone might be the best thing about this song beyond the stock reggaeton percussion, smothered melody, and Ozuna’s nasal croon, and even then you can tell everyone here is underplaying. And for a song regretful that the relationship ended and the girl is still in their heads, Feid seems to get the ambience pretty well… which is not helped by Ozuna’s verse which is considerably hornier and more crass. In other words… I guess I’m pleased with Feid breaking through, but I’m not going back to this.

86. ‘Fin de Semana’ by Junior H & Oscar Maydon - hey look, we’re still not done with the regional Mexican songs, this time by two acts that appear to have massive followings in Mexico but haven’t really broken out of that. And surprise, not fond of this one either - in fact, this might be worse than most of them, with the same slapdash live percussion, but now paired with stiff and staccato accordion warbles, even more brittle acoustics, and tumbling percussion that sounds so slapdash that any consistent rhythm goes out the window. It sounds amateurish in the really bad way, where they forgot to write a proper hook and can’t play in sync with each other. And while neither singer has much personality, the writing isn’t doing them any favours either, where they seem to have a lot of plans for how this hookup is going to proceed and will not take any of your excuses and certainly won’t beg. Frankly, it’s completely unlikable, and I’m thoroughly sick of this trend - I understand something might be getting lost in translation, but I’ve heard enough of this to recognize the bad stuff, and this is certainly it - next!

80. ‘the BLACK seminole.’ by Lil Yachty - It’s hard to escape the feeling that this song is emblematic of Lil Yachty’s psychedelic experiment as a whole - cool textures, an absolute throwback to classic rock, specifically Pink Floyd, where on a textural level this sounds impressive as hell as the synth bubbles spill into a bassy, organ-touched swell complete with a sizzling guitar solo after Lil Yachty’s second verse. And the tempo shifts and transitions are executed impeccably and the song can jam into an ethereal outro with crashing drums and Diana Gordon singing over the expanse, it’s a really novel experience… but dig even a bit deeper and even if you like Lil Yachty’s autotuned voice over this like I do, the song starts feeling flabby and you wish there was more meat to it. Hell, there’s traces of it - I think the juxtaposition of ‘the black Seminole’ with ‘African Rambo’ and the verses of spaced out alienation create the feeling of being out of one’s expected place with newfound power, a general with newfound responsibilities… but Yachty’s last words in taking the most politically charged imagery he’s ever had is ‘love is not a lie, it just feels like a Tarantino movie scene’, and it feels weirdly hollow as a result. Don’t get me wrong, I think this is an impressive song, but I don’t know how strong its resonance is outside of its style - still happy it actually got to the Hot 100, though, check it out.

71. ‘I’m Not Here To Make Friends’ by Sam Smith - I don’t really want to wade into the discourse about Sam Smith and this video - it feels gross what image certain subsets of stans - that should know better - demand out of their pop icons, and it really goes to show just how when Sam Smith showcases a more flamboyant side of themself divorced from traditional beauty standards how quickly that audience abandons any progressive principles of acceptance and turns on them - lipservice to a standards that they only use to punch down, forget actually holding themselves to it. And it’s all around a song that’s otherwise so very underwhelming! Calvin Harris co-produces and his brand of light disco doesn’t really add much to this - nor do Jessie Reyez’s ad-libs on the hook - but it’s more because Smith is delivering more intensity than this production really matches, and the shout-along hook is not a lane that fits them well. For this sort of sharp, vamping hookup song, you need much sharper percussion, maybe a faster tempo - basically I want Disclosure to remix this post-haste. As it is… generally fine, but there was better on Gloria, I’ll wait until the next single comes and let’s hope it’s not ‘Gimme’.

64. ‘Growin’ Up & Gettin’ Old’ by Luke Combs - look, I like Luke Combs, he’s really hit a pretty decent stride the past few years… and I think he’s making a mistake by pushing the ‘sister album’ to Growin’ Up from last year this early. You can tell it was clearly his plan, but given the runway required for country singles to work - and how he’s still not pushed ‘Outrunnin’ Your Memory’ with Miranda Lambert which is a single that he could make work - it runs the risk of oversaturation, which has been a problem with Luke Combs before. But hey, new single starting that run… and yeah, it’s good, but I don’t think it’s that special - Combs is getting older and is trying to show a bit more judgement before partying hard, becoming more settled in his life but still wanting to tell everyone he can still cut loose, guys! I think my issue with the song comes in the production or composition - the bridge feels too short, the meatier guitars could use more vibrancy, the groove could have some crunch, it winds up feeling like an album cut that’s not that interesting. Again, I think this is fine… but Combs definitely has better.

61. ‘Everything I Love’ by Morgan Wallen - …so remember that exception I mentioned surrounding songs that get penetration into the higher reaches of the Hot 100? The larger truth is that it’s reserved for the superstars, and increasingly Morgan Wallen, who without even the full benefit of a tracking week dropped another three songs for his upcoming 36-song album. Full warning in advance, that’s probably going to get an album bomb even despite the string of songs the past year he’s been drip-feeding, god help us all, so let’s start with what’s thankfully not an Alan Jackson cover. What it is is a loose interpolation of an Allman Brothers song so a Morgan Wallen cut has more legit twang and old-school country rollick than the majority of his catalog, although smothered in a distressing amount of watery guitar murk. And it runs into the same issue as ‘You Proof’ for being so damn chipper post-breakup talking about this girl ruined everything he loves, from fishing to booze to even his hometown - I get the impression it’s supposed to play more like a joke, but Wallen doesn’t really have the expressive range in his nasal delivery to pull that off. At least there’s no trap elements this time… ugh, let’s move on to…

58. ‘I Wrote The Book’ by Morgan Wallen - can someone tell Joey Moi and the rest of Wallen’s producers to stop smothering their guitars in watery effects, it was tired two years ago! But now we get the brittle programmed skitters of trap percussion - I guess when you get HARDY to cowrite that comes with the territory - and the central conceit, where Morgan Wallen lists off the cliches of the hard nosed tough guy he is, that he wrote the book on them, but when it comes to living by the Bible… well, that’s a book he didn’t write and it cost him his relationship. What feels weird about this hook is that despite the begrudging acknowledgement that Morgan Wallen should indeed read the Bible, the hook ends on the sentiment that it’s something he didn’t write, in comparison with all the stuff he does, which is a weird parallel to land on. I dunno, this isn’t terrible, but it doesn’t impress me either, next!

42. ‘Dawns’ by Zach Bryan ft. Maggie Rogers - this caught me off-guard - I know Zach Bryan has been building a lot of buzz the past year or so, and Maggie Rogers while having a bumpy few years did seem to get some credible acclaim for her sophomore album Surrender last year, so why not team up? I think what surprises me is that it debuted this high, especially because as a song it’s tough to quantify. For one, Zach Bryan’s production shows a lot of rough edges here in the vocal mixing and ragged arrangement, and his delivery sounds more fried than normal - he and Maggie Rogers have some chemistry, but it definitely feels slapdash, which is also how I’d describe a song with very little groove and has a wonky relationship with tempo. And yet somehow, it actually works - a relationship that’s very much on its last moments where especially in the wake of Bryan’s mother passing away, Rogers’ lack of faith forces Bryan to grapple with grief in an ugly way, and then we actually get her side of the story where she has faith but it’s more complicated, and she wants to spend more of her life happy outside of what feels like a toxic relationship with an uncertain future ahead. It’s the sort of relationship drama that feels very adult and raw where nobody is precisely in the wrong here and nobody looks that great, and the messy disintegration backed by these climatic strings sliding in against the rough guitars sells how huge that dramatic scene can be. If anything, I’m more impressed by the audacity of pushing a song this long and ambitious in its concept this high, and I have no idea if it’ll last… but damn, I respect them for pulling it off.

40. ‘Love Again’ by Kid LAROI - maybe it’s just me, but I thought Kid LAROI would have way more traction coming out of last year to fully kick his career into motion - I remember how quickly it worked for Juice WRLD, but hey, he’s got his lead single for the debut album proper… and look, there’s actually parts of this I don’t mind. How the acoustics rise out of the reverbed guitars, a pretty decent hook, the messy back-and-forth of the relationship drama feels tangible… but Kid LAROI is delivering the most basic version of it for just over two minutes and it feels very hollow, especially given that you can tell one of his label bosses saw the success of ‘Without You’ and thought they should hone in on that formula. It doesn’t feel as clueless as ‘Without You’ was, but that just makes it feel really damn generic - I’d skip it.

27. ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen - alright, last of the Morgan Wallen songs - this is projected to jump into the top 10 next week, y’all have been warned - and I get why, because while you can tell this was built for TikTok with that runtime, I can’t deny there’s a really solid melodic hook here. Yes, the snap beat is a throwback to something in country I thought we left behind in 2019, and Wallen’s vocals sound really overprocessed - the entire song could have played more acoustic and it probably would have been better - and Wallen playing the other side of a will-they/won’t-they bad relationship song with a weirdly presumptive angle doesn’t flatter his strengths as a performer - but again, I get the feeling this is a hook that’s really going to work. Ultimately, it’s not the worst thing ever - again - but my big concern with this avalanche of Morgan Wallen songs was the same as with Dangerous, disposable quantity over quality, and nothing seems to be changing. I’m not looking forward to this album, in case you can’t tell.

But for the best and worst of this week… Wallen’s getting the Dishonourable Mention for ‘I Wrote the Book’, mostly because the worst is going to ‘Fin de Semana’ by Junior H and Oscar Maydon, what a mess of a song - P!nk’s song this week was a runner up because man, that made me sad. Best of the week… yeah, ‘Dawns’ by Zach Bryan and Maggie Rogers is obvious, but well deserved, with ‘the BLACK seminole’ by Lil Yachty as the Honourable Mention - it’s not really surprising now, but go back before this January and I think that might blow some people’s minds. Anyway, next week might be a bit of a breather - I certainly hope so, given that I’m going to be on vacation, so I’m praying for a light week, stay tuned!