billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - december 30, 2023

This might not be the worst time of the year to have a busy week for the charts, but it is absolutely the most obnoxious. Not only is it post-album bomb so you’re going to get a flood of returns and new arrivals, but there’s absolutely zero guarantee any of it sticks because a bunch of them are holiday songs and half are in this weird deadzone of a year where trends and traction are tough to gauge, especially given that I’m right in the middle of year-end list season and could really use the extra time not spent on this!

And you want to know what’s most annoying? The fact that basically none of this reached the top ten, where for another week ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’ by Mariah Carey held the #1 because in addition to strong streaming she also has sales. At least she’s consistent… but hell, that’s true with the next six entries, where thanks to streaming their positions are completely stable: ‘Rockin Around The Christmas Tree’ by Brenda Lee at #2, ‘Jingle Bell Rock’ by Bobby Helms at #3, ‘Last Christmas’ by Wham! at #4, ‘A Holly Jolly Christmas’ by Burl Ives at #5, ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow at #6 - okay, chalk more of this one up to sales and the radio, but when you follow it with ‘It’s The Most Wonderful Time’ by Andy Williams at #7, my points effectively stands. The margin gets a bit shakier when you have ‘Let It Snow’ by Dean Martin at #8 and ‘Feliz Navidad’ by Jose Feliciano at #9 edge over ‘Sleigh Ride’ by The Ronettes at #10, but those are minor shifts at best, and nearly all of them will be gone in a few weeks!

Which takes us neatly to our losers and dropouts, and again, have to give credit to this season’s recurrency if nothing else, because it knocked out a few big hits: ‘Need A Favor’ by Jelly Rolly, ‘fukumean’ by Gunna, ‘I KNOW?’ by Travis Scott, ‘Everything I Love’ by Morgan Wallen, and… well, I consider ‘Virginia Beach’ by Drake a big enough hit even if nobody else does. And the losers are all basically remnants of last week’s debuts, with the exception of ‘greedy’ by Tate McRae sliding out of the top ten to 19 as her album fades - might as well factor in ‘run for the hills’ as well at 97. Outside of that it’s all Nicki Minaj - ‘Everybody’ with Lil Uzi Vert at 39, ‘Needle’ with Drake at 65, and ‘Beep Beep’ at 74.

Now you’d think with her album bomb fading we’d get a lot of returns and gains… and this is where things get strange, because remember, Nicki didn’t have much upper chart impact, so the returns we did see actually open with ‘This Christmas’ by Donny Hathaway at 45 and ‘Happy Xmas (War Is Over)’ by John & Yoko and the Plastic Ono Band at 48 with the last splurge of holiday music. Much lower on the Hot 100 we also saw comebacks for ‘Different Round Here’ by Riley Green and Luke Combs at 95 and ‘Great Gatsby’ by Rod Wave at 99, but again, this low on the charts outside of the former maybe getting Nashville radio support, it’s difficult to gauge. It is interesting to look at the gains, though, and let’s get through the holiday shuffle quickly: ‘It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas’ by Perry Como up big to 14, ‘Run Rudolph Run’ by Chuck Berry at 27, and ‘Please Come Home For Christmas’ by The Eagles at 32. But where this gets interesting is trying to assess what has enough momentum to surge when the holiday music all goes away… and I have to be honest, there’s some real potential here! For one, ‘Surround Sound’ by JID ft. 21 Savage and Baby Tate somehow still has momentum at 61, as does ‘Strangers’ by Kenya Grace at 66, ‘get him back!’ by Olivia Rodrigo at 68, and even ‘Where The Wild Things Are’ by Luke Combs at 78, that’s all really promising for 2024! Now we aren’t so lucky with all of these, and I mostly blame Nashville radio for it: ‘Pretty Little Poison’ by Warren Zeiders up to 59, ‘TRUCK BED’ by HARDY at 72, ‘Save Me The Trouble’ by Dan + Shay at 73… I might even throw ‘Wild Ones’ by Jessie Murph and Jelly Roll in there at 67. Hell, given that Morgan Wallen showed up in Drake’s new music video for ‘You Broke My Heart’, where there was a jump to 70, he might count too! Outside of all of those… well, ‘Standing Next To You’ by Jungkook has actually stuck around at 79? No idea if it’s got tangible traction but Jungkook has had better longevity on the Hot 100 than I expected?

Anyway, we actually do have a meaty list of new arrivals here, and unfortunately we’re starting with…

100. ‘One Of The Girls’ by The Weeknd, JENNIE & Lily Rose Depp - and here I thought we’d be leaving The Idol in 2023, but no, thanks to the power of k-pop crossover months after the show has been cancelled, we get this… and honestly, if I was a Blackpink, I might be pretty pissed that JENNIE is only here for the intro and the bridge repeating it. And… if I’m being completely honest, I might like this more than ‘Popular’, if only because it just has to be a trashy mixtape-Weeknd era kinky sex jam, with the bass burbling against the chalky but leaden trap percussion, and the synths wailing all over the mix. And yeah, the lyrics are explicit and edgy, with The Weeknd attempting to play up the domme presence until we get the bait-and-switch that - spoilers - is echoed in the show. And that kind of makes sense - The Weeknd getting over his head in a toxic relationship is an archetype that’s worked for a decade - but Lily Rose Depp is really the weak link on this; I don’t any convincing sensuality from her delivery which is overdubbed to the point of covering any slips, and when you factor in the tempo and overprocessed vocals as a whole, there’s no fleshy intensity to this in the same way Illangelo’s production used to deliver. Again, seeing Sam Levinson have a writing credit on this doesn’t surprise me - this song is closer to being edgy or provocative, but it’s gesturing at an idea rather than pulling it off. Just okay, at best.

(not available because Amazon)

96. ‘Winter Wonderland’ by Chloe - ah yes, we’re still in the season of the Amazon exclusive Christmas songs, where for some ungodly reason artists sign up for this and I have to renew my Amazon subscription for the few days required to hear and then grab the necessary song; at least this is a business expense. Anyway, we’ve got two this week, the first from Chloe, who… look, I didn’t think her solo R&B debut was good, but she still has a beautiful voice and this is something she could nail in her sleep. And once I got the handle of the blockier bassline that frankly gives the song a lot more swing to it, I liked this a decent bit - Chloe is a gorgeous singer who can pull this off in her sleep and it feels like there was a little more effort put into the production. At the end of the day, ‘Winter Wonderland’ is in the higher tier of Christmas songs for me and this is a fine version - very solid stuff!

94. ‘DJ Play A Christmas Song’ by Cher - so I know the story here is that this is Cher’s first charting song in years, and she’s long been elevated to legendary diva territory, which probably contributed to why this charted at all from her first ever Christmas album. And… there’s a part of me that desperately wishes I could embrace this as earnestly as everyone else and not hear the autotune as the obvious choice to mimic the persistent lasting success of ‘Believe’, along with the glittery synth pulse of the dance groove that probably leaves a few too many grating high frequencies in the mix - and to get around how Cher being in her late 70s is starting to sound her age. But the benefit of Cher’s voice being so idiosyncratic means that she still wears it all well, and while the song feels like a holiday cash-in down to the final key change, she’s bringing more energy than she has to this many decades in. I’m not going to call it special or well-produced or even all that good, but Cher’s presence in pop is a net positive, this is fine by me.

93. ‘Wondering Why’ by The Red Clay Strays - it’s starting to get weird when the acts I see reviewed on indie country sites now have a higher-than-expected average of showing up on the Hot 100, and the Red Clay Strays are one of those groups, an old-fashioned southern rock group out of Alabama from their 2022 album - and when I say ‘old-fashioned’ I mean a deliberate throwback to the mid-50s, something you would have heard in the era of Elvis and Sun Records, but with little of the stylistic affectations that tend to surround those throwbacks; with Stephen Sanchez you can tell he’s playing into the stylism, the Red Clay Strays are confident enough in their stripped back groove, sandy drums, and frontman Brandon Coleman’s sheer presence to just own a love song for a girl who is plainly out of his league and he’s just along for the ride - I get why this may have caught fire in certain segments of TikTok. That said, I think I respect this more than I like it: these sorts of deliberate throwbacks even down to the chord progressions can feel a bit set in their ways and limited, and from what I’ve heard their live show has way more energy and intensity, which I can buy given that they self-produced this and it does show through in how spare this mix is. Still, I can recognize quality when I hear it, it’s cool to see this stuff crossover, good stuff.

91. ‘La Victima’ by Xavi - I was not sure to expect from Xavi - nineteen year old Mexican-American out of Arizona, from what I can tell he’s had a bit of buzz in the industry for a bit including a record deal on Interscope that’s also gotten TikTok traction, and… okay, on the one hand I actually like the tone and production of this more than a lot of regional Mexican - there’s more refinement, the acoustics are warmer and better balanced, and that squonking bass is an interesting texture, and Xavi has some tangible presence and a pretty good vocal presence for his age. But when you translate the lyrics, it’s him ripping into a girl who apparently lied or cheated on him, and he’s done with giving her chances and doesn’t want to see her play the victim… mostly so he can play the victim on the verse where he wants to wallow in misery at a party and then sees her having clearly moved on. Apparently this did not happen to Xavi, he was inspired by this happening to a friend, but it’s shockingly obnoxious that kind of soured me - again, the production is good, but it’s hard to recommend.

88. ‘Mind On You’ by George Birge - …it’s not a good sign that I’ve heard more buzz about the independent Red Clay Strays than the newest act out of Nashville backed by Music Row. So enter George Birge - originally part of the duo Waterloo Revival, had a very minor radio hits, broke up a few years ago and this has been crawling up the country radio charts with a TikTok boost since it first dropped in November 2021! And look, I wanted to give Birge some credit for some initial warmer acoustics and pedal steel… but then the fizzy layers and blocky programmed percussion slipped in alongside the guitars buried midway back and the rap cadences with no real personality in his overprocessed vocals or bargain-barrel hookup lyrics that come from the plastic boyfriend country songs that want to get a bit more hot and heavy. It feels incredibly insubstantial, the sort of song chasing where Thomas Rhett and Kane Brown were four years ago; mediocre as hell, I’m gonna forget this in record time.

85. ‘Lace It’ by Juice WRLD, Eminem & benny blanco - he’s been dead for over four years, why the fuck is anyone still doing this? Apparently this is for the ‘final’ Juice WRLD posthumous album - because nobody got the fucking message that the first posthumous album should have been the last because when you keep going this long it makes you out to be milking the legacy for every drop of cash - with interpolations that seem to date as far back as 2018. And it’s not like benny blanco gives this good production - the clattering percussion, the sloppily mastered bass, barely any tune, where Juice WRLD was once again working the drugs as devil metaphor along with a lot of half-formed flexing and gunplay, you can tell exactly why this sat on the shelf for so long. And Eminem… look, he has made some shockingly visceral deep cuts about addiction and overdose, especially on his first underrated comeback Relapse with a song like ‘Deja Vu’, and this verse doesn’t really break that mold, outside of Em listing so many rappers and artists who have died from drugs in recent years and professing he’s not lecturing, just being honest. His verse is probably the song’s saving grace… but I also know he’s done this better, and it drives me nuts seeing his sincere connection with Juice WRLD get exploited. So no, I will not recommend this.

84. ‘Never Lose Me’ by Flo Milli - well about damn time we get something from Flo Milli on the charts! I felt like I was late to Flo Milli last year reviewing her album, but apparently it would take another year for her to properly crossover with a song from her newest EP, where RCA finally pulled their heads out of their asses and decided to promote properly. And shame it’s not very good - or rather it just doesn’t feel that special outside of a pretty high quality trap beat against the whistling melodic touches. Maybe it’s the hook that feels weirdly desperate and ever so slightly offbeat, maybe it’s the content playing to brand name flexing and some sex talk where I wish more intensity came through; like her full-length debut I’m starting to get the nauseating feeling that RCA wants her to be the next Doja Cat, and while Flo Milli’s a good singer, sand-blasting the rest of her personality away is a big mistake. As for this… it’s okay, I guess, but not special.

83. ‘Crazy’ by Lil Baby - I remember back in 2020 when I was still mostly lukewarm on Lil Baby, unconvinced that his hype would last beyond a moment due to how repetitive his content and production would be, and I got an annoying number of folks citing so much potential, that he’d seen his breaktrhough and could be the next big thing… and we’re three years later and I feel like the hype has dissipated considerably. Maybe some of it has to do with the Gunna situation, I’m not sure, but here’s a new single… and look, I don’t see the hype. Yeah, the piano line is good, but Lil Baby just can’t find a pocket with this faster trap percussion and it makes his flow come across really sloppy and offbeat - or really just inconsistent, because there are moments he sounds fine but it rarely lasts. And then there’s the content… look, I’ve heard this aspirational flex paired with ‘more money, more problems’ from Lil Baby for years now, and without much in the way of distinctive detail or storytelling, it’s just forgettable. Maybe that’s the reason it feels like the hype has cooled on Lil Baby for me… I just barely remember it.

(not available because Amazon - trust me, you don’t want to hear it)

81. ‘Jingle Bells’ by Meghan Trainor - alright, the second Amazon song, and honestly, if there’s going to be a pop act who hops on the Christmas bandwagon, Meghan Trainor doing her early pop throwback at least makes sense. But that’s not what she did - what in the Nine Hells even is this? Like with Chloe the percussion has been ramped up for some sort of clattering swagger, but the horns sound like they came from a tin can and the backing vocal mix is weirdly hollow, made even worse by the fact that this is barely even a full performance of ‘Jingle Bells’, just the first verse before Trainor rattles through spelling the word ‘jingle’ multiple times. It has the feel of Meghan Trainor trying to switch something up, especially given how often her child’s giggle peppers the mix, but you’re covering ‘Jingle Bells’ for fucking Amazon, they don’t need your chopped and screwed version that has no coherent tone! This is a shocking disaster, and once again reinforces that Amazon should do everyone a favour and not waste our time or money platforming these exclusives ever again!

76. ‘La Diabla’ by Xavi - okay, maybe I just got off on the wrong foot with Xavi, round two is the charm, where there’s even less of a song with a single verse and two choruses, but hey, again the acoustics sound better and pick up an unique cascading presence that feels different against the loose bass gallop, and the kid clearly has talent and presence. And thankfully the writing is better - it’s playing the ‘hot girl is a devil’ card, but he’s also very clearly into it which is a nice swerve from the usual melodrama with this trope. In other words, I like this a lot more, especially as you can tell more production budget was pushed behind this around the more atmospheric outro - I’m intrigued, this is good stuff!

71. ‘Bellakeo’ by Peso Pluma & Anitta - full disclosure, I don’t know how much longevity Peso Pluma has - he certainly seems to have a wider frame of influences and that might help weather industry trends more effectively, but seeing him with Anitta gave me some pause - maybe I haven’t done enough of a deep dive on her work yet, I know Versions of Me got a lot of praise in certain circles last year, but I remember not caring too much for ‘Envolver’ and I never got around to it. So with this… it hits an odd note, I’ll say that. I’m not been crazy about Peso Pluma hopping on reggaeton grooves, but this production feels more interesting with the rougher groove and those quaking synths constantly on the verge of breakdown - there’s a blocky instability that seems to imply things are going off the rails, which you see in the lyrics with Anitta getting heated at her man and going out with the girls to aggressively flirt, where Peso Pluma plays the baller trying to egg her on, where the out of nowhere gunshot sound makes the menace more palpable. But… I dunno, Peso Pluma and Anitta don’t have much chemistry, the hook feels more basic than it should be, and I feel like we got a strong setup to the story and even an attempted climax but a weak resolution. I get the feeling this might grow on me, but as it is… ehh, not bad.

And that was our week… god, this was long and messy to boot, at least the worst of the week fall out quickly with Meghan Trainor’s godawful cover of Jingle Bells running away with the worst while ‘Lace It’ by the late Juice WRLD, Eminem, and benny blanco gets the Dishonourable Mention. The best… I guess ‘Winter Wonderland’ by Chloe feels like the obvious choice, but I think ‘La Diabla’ by Xavi is a good Honourable Mention, the choice feels shaky here. Next week… tough to gauge, but I think it might be more transitional as the holidays wrap up, so stay tuned for that.