billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - december 26, 2020

…well, okay, maybe I was just half wrong this week. I knew that we’d be going for a pitched fight between Taylor Swift and holiday music, but I did not expect her to win the way she did. More to the point, between Kid Cudi and Jack Harlow, the artist I did not expect to see come out on top was Kid Cudi - I know that he’s regained some career traction since that slump across most of the 2010s, but 2020 has shown him more chart presence than I think ever before in his career, which was a legit surprise for me. Now this has meant we got two album bombs this week, as both comfortably qualified… which leads to a mess on the rest of the Hot 100, leaving a lot of open questions what will happen when both the album bombs fade with the holidays.

In the meantime, though, our top 10, where to my surprise, ‘willow’ by Taylor Swift actually seized the #1. Now this is not a #1 for which I have the same degree of respect as ‘cardigan’ - it’s a weaker song, and to watch Taylor Swift play the remix game to boost sales because she couldn’t win feels weirdly gauche, especially coming from her - but it was enough to beat ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’ by Mariah Carey, which might have holiday radio and enormous streaming, but got beaten on YouTube and sales to #2. Then we have two more Christmas songs with ‘Rockin Around The Christmas Tree’ by Brenda Lee at #3 and ‘Jingle Bell Rock’ by Bobby Helms at #4 - again, no surprises here - followed by ‘Mood’ by 24kGoldn ft. iann dior stubbornly clinging to #5, mostly because it has a lock on a pretty massive radio margin, even if it looks like it has peaked for the year. Then we got two more Christmas songs with ‘A Holly Jolly Christmas’ by Burl Ives actually penetrating the top 10 to #6 - as a personal favourite of mine, that’s welcome to see - along with ‘It’s The Most Wonderful TIme’ by Andy Williams at #7. Next is ‘positions’ by Ariana Grande at #8 - which I’m going to chalk up to a radio run that has not slowed down in the slightest - but then we have a surprise: ‘Dynamite’ by BTS re-entering the top 10 at #9. Yes, the sales have always been great here, but this looks to be the benefit of last-ditch remixes and an added shot of YouTube to compensate for radio completely abandoning this. And finally, rounding out the top 10 again we have ‘Feliz Navidad’ by Jose Feliciano at #10… honestly, I’ve got nothing on why this song has had the staying power it has in 2020, it’s weird!

But again, our real story comes with the losers and dropouts - and when you factor in holiday music with two album bombs, it was a bloodbath. Just in our notable losers, we had ‘Martin & Gina’ by Polo G, ‘Life Goes On’ by BTS, ‘Don’t Stop’ by Megan Thee Stallion and Young Thug, ‘pov’ by Ariana Grande, ‘Hit Different’ by SZA and Ty Dolla $ign, ‘Midnight Sky’ by Miley Cyrus, ‘Wonder’ by Shawn Mendes, ‘7 Summers’ and ‘More Than My Hometown’ by Morgan Wallen, ‘Happy Anywhere’ by Blake Shelton and Gwen Stefani, and ‘Savage Love’ by Jawsh 685 and Jason Derulo! And that conveyed to our losers too, where a full quarter of the chart fell back! Some you’d expect like our debuts of ‘On Me’ and ‘Errbody’ by Lil Baby at 60 and 98, or ‘Without You’ by Kid LAROI at 81. Then there’s the holiday songs took unexpected hits: ‘Favourite Time Of Year’ by Carrie Underwood at 99, the cover of ‘Rockin Around The Christmas Tree’ by Justin Bieber, and even ‘Here Comes Santa Claus’ by Gene Autry! Also among our gains cut short we saw ‘Good Time’ by Niko Moon fall to 79, and while we’re in Nashville here, ‘Ain’t Always The Cowboy’ by Jon Pardi hit 93, ‘Forever After All’ by Luke Combs slid to 92, ‘Love You Like I Used To’ by Russell Dickerson hit 83, ‘Big Big Plans’ by Chris Lane fell to 73, ‘Starting Over’ by Chris Stapleton skidded to 72, and ‘I Should Probably Go To Bed’ by Dan + Shay hit 70. And then it keeps on coming: ‘Throat Baby (Go Baby)’ by BRS Kash at 97, ‘Prisoner’ by Miley Cyrus and Dua Lipa at 94, ‘Mr. Right Now’ by 21 Savage, Metro Boomin and Drake at 88, ‘my ex’s best friend’ by Machine Gun Kelly and blackbear at 86, ‘you broke me first’ by Tate McRae at 79, and ‘B.S.’ by Jhene Aiko and H.E.R. at 76. And as for the rest… ‘Diamonds’ by Sam Smith hit 66, ‘Hawai’ by Maluma fell to 65, ‘Monster’ by Shawn Mendes and Justin Bieber fell to 62 - and it already looks like the radio is stalling out for this, wow that album is underperforming - ‘WAP’ by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion continuing down to 55, ‘therefore i am’ by Billie Eilish at 36, and even ‘Blinding Lights’ by The Weeknd fell to 18 - it’ll probably rebound, but still!

So okay, what gains and returning entries filled in the gaps here. Well, in the former category - shocker - outside of ‘Dynamite’ it’s just holiday music: ‘It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas’ by Perry Como at 12, ‘Run Rudolph Run’ by Chuck Berry at 29, and even new arrivals like ‘Take Me Home For Christmas’ by Dan + Shay at 58 and ‘Hallelujah’ by Carrie Underwood and John Legend at 84! What caught me off-guard is ‘Cry Baby’ by Megan Thee Stallion and DaBaby making a return to 95… on the backs of what looks like a TikTok challenge. Fantastic, one of the most thoroughly annoying songs on that album is going to become a meme hit, just goddamn wonderful. But again, the real story is the fact we have two album bombs here, where it looked like Jack Harlow got squeezed out - I really thought he had more hype, again, I’m surprised here. Now in Taylor Swift’s case it’s actually pretty easy - the entire album debuted, and the songs that fell below the top 40 and are neither the best nor worst are ‘closure’ at 82, ‘marjorie’ at 75, ‘cowboy like me’ at 71, ‘long story short’ at 68, ‘dorothea’ at 67, ‘coney island’ with The National at 63, ‘ivy’ at 61, ‘evermore’ with Bon Iver at 57, ‘happiness’ at 52, and ‘tolerate it’ at 45. All fine and good - I reviewed Taylor Swift’s album in full on my main channel, I have many more thoughts over there. But given I didn’t review Kid Cudi’s album, I will provide some brief thoughts here before listening the songs that qualify under album bomb rules and reached neither best nor worst… which is basically all of them. So here it goes: I’ve not been on the Kid Cudi train at really any point, and while this is certainly more tolerable than some of his misbegotten experiments in the past and his influence definitely extends over a lot of the current scene, I’ve always found his conceptual experiments undercooked to match their ambition, which has led to a lot of his work feeling hollow and just less interesting than many fans would advocate. And with his pivots towards more modern progressions it’s hard to ignore just how little his content and delivery differentiate him outside of ‘well, he may have done it first’. Ergo, the songs he debuted this week are as follows: ‘Beautiful Trip’ at 100, ‘Damaged’ at 91 - probably the best song here, although ‘Sad People’ at 90 is a good second - ‘Heaven On Earth’ at 85, ‘Dive’ at 80, ‘Mr. Solo Dolo III’ at 78 - definitely appreciated the more spacious, downbeat vibe here - ‘Another Day’ at 64, ‘Show Out’ with Skepta and the late Pop Smoke - which might be one of the more authentic posthumous Pop Smoke cuts we’ve heard, this is a drill cut I dig - ‘She Knows This’ at 49, and ‘Tequila Shots’ at 41.

But now for our somehow still lengthy list of new arrivals, unfortunately starting with…

89. ‘Reminds Me Of You’ by Kid LAROI & Juice WRLD - I mean, I already don’t like Kid LAROI for nakedly riding the coattails of his mentor to middling at best chart success, so obviously the next step is grab a posthumous verse to slap on an instrumental that samples a Kim Petras song produced by Dr. Luke, because for some reason there’s a connection across management groups and they knew each other. And I’m not going to deny the hook is catchy - but it’s also hyperbolic and completely incoherent across the song! You get the impression that Kid LAROI is framing this as a mostly sincere tribute to Juice WRLD… until he starts saying that he’s cutting off all his friends because they remind him of this person and you suddenly realize he’s not talking about Juice WRLD but just some girl, where Kid LAROI starts thinking about homicide because she left him! I get that this is just melodramatic, but not only can Kid LAROI not sell it, Juice WRLD’s verse feels a bit more detailed and complicated than just getting a glock - I’m not saying it doesn’t have its own unique accusatory vibe, but it feels stitched together in post in the worst way possible. And when you tack on the connections to led to this existing… yeah, no, let’s leave Kid LAROI in 2020, he is not worth keeping around.

74. ‘Way Out’ by Jack Harlow ft. Big Sean - so again, I’m legit surprised that Jack Harlow didn’t achieve more chart success off of this album - the reviews were okay to positive, he has seemed like he’s on the come-up, I had hopes he had picked up more penetration here… and after listening to this, I’m still perplexed as to why it didn’t happen, because this is okay. Yeah, the fizzy trap beat feels distinctly underweight and I don’t think Big Sean’s verse is good at all - telling dumb girls to read while you talk about your pre-cum and reference old girlfriends not still having feelings for you when you’re dating Jhene Aiko who absolutely will cut you, none of this makes you look good - but I think the hook is good and Jack Harlow is a pretty damn competent rapper. Yeah, it’s bragging and it’s overall low key, but his rhyme construction and solid grasp of fundamentals make him hard to dislike, especially as his writing has just enough enough flair to avoid filler bars. I’m not saying this is great by any means - that Big Sean verse, woof - but if more of the album was like this, I’m a little surprised it got overlooked, that’s all I’m saying.

47. ‘Deck The Halls’ by Nat King Cole - okay, I actually like ‘Deck The Halls’ - it’s one of those older carols I’m generally fond of, providing it’s paced and produced well. So why in the build-up to the holidays we get this version charting, because man, it doesn’t flatter Nat King Cole at all! Nat King Cole is such a natural, warm presence on Christmas music because he doesn’t need to lean on theatricality - he’s just that relaxed and poised, so obviously you want a brassy, upbeat version of this song where he’s trying to keep pace, but it feels awkward all around. And the song barely runs a minute - you couldn’t have let Nat King Cole get comfortable or something with this, he could have easily made this work! No, this is a classic case of the wrong arrangement for the performer, and Nat King Cole deserved better - pass!

40. ‘gold rush’ by Taylor Swift - so it certainly helps matters that the majority of the best songs on evermore were near the front of the project, and since that normally translates to better charting positions, I can get into them more easily, with this probably being the most pop-accessible cut on the project, courtesy of the Jack Antonoff production credit. And this is a song I really like, mostly because Swift is letting a little more complexity in; yeah, it shows her nascent jealous streak, but it also shows her great underlying fear of falling too hard for a guy where she just knows she’s going to be captivated by the romance and maybe let him get the better of her sharper instincts. And when you pair it with the subtle shimmer of the keys building behind the percussion and strings, it hits that precise balance of enraptured panic that really makes it work. Terrific song… but not quite as good as…

39. ‘tis the damn season’ by Taylor Swift - ah, this is one of my favourites, the moment where off the echoing electric guitar and deeper thrum of percussion, Swift plays the girl returning to her hometown from L.A. for the holidays, and she hits the precise sour note between small town disillusionment and the part of her that legit wants to stay and pitch the transparently phony side of L.A. because that old flame is rekindled. And yet I like how disposable the entire bitter moment feels - it’s not a moment where she truly allows herself to embrace the romance of reuniting going home, because she did make an effort to leave this guy and she doesn’t want to admit there’s anything left there, especially not in the slow, lingering tacky romanticism of Christmas where she’s stuck staying with family and might want to be anywhere else. I like that the song feels uncomfortable, because it makes the core feel more human and real, and the bridge really clinches it for me. One of her better songs this year, just really damn sharp all the way down.

34. ‘no body, no crime’ by Taylor Swift ft. HAIM - god, I wanted to like this so much more than I do. Yeah, the HAIM team-up is obvious but Taylor Swift making a country murder ballad is something she’s shown the capacity to make for years now… and wow, this is thin. They’ve commented that they were inspired by the former Dixie Chicks song ‘Goodbye Earl’, a song I genuinely dislike because of karaoke overplay but also because it plays it all way too cutesy, which kills any sense of danger and stakes which is half the fun of a great murder ballad! This is better because Swift knows enough to keep this simmering and a bit haunted, but not only is the atmosphere nowhere near thick enough to win me over, the writing is way too tasteful to do more than imply any deaths, where plausible deniability is set up for the audience as well as the story being told. And it feels like such a cop-out, because Swift also misses the opportunity to focus on the larger societal reaction - if she wants to make a story about women taking calculated revenge, show the extra step to highlight the reaction of the small town, or better yet make the details all the more lurid and spend your words on the graphic aftermath. Even if I take the more sensationalist angle where Swift was the mistress in this story… again, why be so tasteful when you could be soapy and fun, especially when you’ve reaped the rewards of doing so before? Ugh, again, this isn’t bad, but it should be way better than it is… and you want to know why?

21. ‘champagne problems’ by Taylor Swift - this could well be among one of her best songs this year; the best song on evermore and exactly what Swift’s wordy brand of storytelling can really do at her best, especially against a pretty simple piano backdrop. Two college sweethearts where he was in love and wanted her to marry into his rich suburban family, but he never quite ‘got’ her rougher edges and it all blows up in their faces - and what I love about this song is the framing that pulls back far enough to show her pain for having to let him down and her hopes that he’ll find a better girl to fit into that story, but also the tragedy of seeing the cushy artifice he built crumble around him, especially as ‘they’ let loose with all the nasty words they’ve hidden behind fake smiles. Really, if folklore and evermore have proven anything it’s showing Swift is writing at her best when she doesn’t conform, ripping the veneer off WASPy, prep school shit where she knows just how comfortably she could be slot into it, but also just how simultaneously alluring and toxic it is.And in terms of pure writing and arrangement - the chorus of backing vocals on the bridge is biting - for me this is easily one of her best songs… maybe beyond just this year.

1. ‘willow’ by Taylor Swift - …okay, at this point I’m just convinced Taylor Swift’s team doesn’t know how to pick good singles, and on a front-loaded album like evermore, why go with this? This feels like an album cut from folklore and not one of the better or more interesting ones. It’s a pretty straightforward love song that shows Swift enamored over a guy where she’d do whatever it takes to truly clinch his affection, even if it could really ruin her prospects. And I get this conflict - I said in my evermore review that Swift is obsessed with these passions that run wild and overtake her life, but more often than not she leans into it and that just doesn’t make the song as interesting, especially when the song here is so plucky and meandering. She’s clearly trying to go for something more mystical, but the atmosphere isn’t there - certainly warm, but it places Swift in her cooing upper register, which is rarely a strength in her arsenal, and there’s little in the arrangement that fleshes out the vibe she’s clearly trying to chase going by the video, even with the strings slipping in. I dunno, it’s fine, but it just feels very safe in comparison with the best songs of both albums she put out this year - can even a Taylor Swift stan say this deserved to go to #1 over ‘the last great american dynasty’ or ‘exile’ or, hell, even ‘gold rush’? That’s what I thought.

Anyway, that was our week - honestly wound up a bit shorter than a double album bomb week normally portends, but the best and worst fell out fast too: in the latter category, ‘Reminds Me Of You’ by Kid LAROI and the late Juice WRLD easily takes the worst and makes me think we owe Nickelback an apology for their biggest hit, and Dishonourable Mention to that truly misguided ‘Deck The Halls’ cover by Nat King Cole… what happened there, my god. Best of the week both go to Taylor Swift: ‘tis the damn season’ gets Honourable Mention, Best of the Week for ‘champagne problems’. Unfortunately, very little of this is likely to last because Eminem decided to release a deluxe edition of a mediocre album and I’d put money on an album bomb from that, so stay tuned…