billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - august 21, 2021

You know, I think this might actually be the first week we’ve had on the Hot 100 in a while where I can say it feels ‘normal’ - yeah, it’s in the reset after an album bomb, but it was a small one and with the release schedule drying up for a few weeks, it’s probably going to be the closest to a summer lull we’re going to get.

Just kind of unfortunate to say that when you look at our top 10, particularly the #1 and ‘Stay’ by Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber is squatting on top. Sure, you can argue it’s just winning on the streaming margins, but given its stability on sales and how it’s racing up the radio, I get the depressing feeling this is going to stick for a decent bit - lovely. And at this point with ‘good 4 u’ by Olivia Rodrigo holding its ground on the radio but not able to pick up traction anywhere else, it’s just getting a little sad! What is getting traction is ‘Bad Habits’ by Ed Sheeran up to #3 - yeah, the grime remix was better than it had any right to be, but to me if this is going to seriously challenge for #1 it’s a race against time - radio traction versus streaming and sales that are both collapsing. And yet to my surprise right behind it is ‘Kiss Me More’ by Doja Cat ft. SZA, which looks like it’s finally starting to fizzle on the radio and streaming, as the sales are long gone. But it held over ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa down at #5, where it finally is falling back on the radio and despite residual traction in other channels, it’s probably losing most on the streaming margin here. Then we have a new debut in the top 10: ‘Take My Breath’ by The Weeknd - I’ll talk more about the song later on, but apparently it’s the lead-off single to his next album, which seems to have a bizarrely quick turnaround time, but it saw a strong debut in all channels, especially on how fast he got shipped to radio; looks like Republic isn’t taking any chances with this one. Then we have ‘Butter’ by BTS down to #7 - yes, it’s still selling ridiculously well, but radio seems done with it and you can tell this is going to fade pretty quick as the momentum peters out. Then we have ‘Industry Baby’ by Lil Nas X and Jack Harlow at #8 - for a song that was trying to sound so triumphant the fact that all it really has is streaming and YouTube as the radio struggles to catch up feels weird - and then ‘Montero (Call Me By Your Name)’ by Lil Nas X at #9, which has radio but is on a steady decline. Finally we have ‘deja vu’ by Olivia Rodrigo at #10, where it all it really has now is radio and you can tell it’s starting to slip there.

On that note, losers and dropouts, and we’ve got some notable ones in the latter category: ‘Build A Bitch’ by Bella Poarch is gone after running longer than I thought she would, ‘Way Less Sad’ by AJR didn’t become their next hit, but clinching their spots we have ‘Best Friend’ by Saweetie and Doja Cat and ‘Mood’ by 24kGoldn ft. iann dior finally making its exit. Also ‘One Too Many’ by Keith Urban and P!nk is gone and it’s about time - glad Billboard was done propping up that charade, even if calculations have it making the year-end list for 2021. But easy targets aside, most of the losers this week aren’t surprising: ‘Skate’ by Silk Sonic slipped off the debut to 35, ‘Drinkin Beer, Talkin God Amen’ by Chase Rice and Florida Georgia Line hit 38 as country radio starts rotating it out, ‘Permission to Dance’ by BTS fell hard to 55 because all it had was sales and that’s drying up, ‘NDA’ by Billie Eilish slid back to 77 because the album bomb is gone, and continuing to tank we have ‘Ball If I Want To’ by DaBaby at 91 and ‘Not Sober’ by Kid LAROI, Polo G and Stunna Gambino at 92.

Now as expected in the wake of an album bomb fading we get a bunch of gains and returns… but I have to be honest, I’m not sure how to read these ones. Yeah, we get the expected low-end bounce back of ‘Twerkulator’ by City Girls at 98 and ‘Next Girl’ by Carly Pearce at 96, but seeing ‘WUSYANAME’ by Tyler, The Creator featuring YoungBoy Never Broke Again and Ty Dolla $ign at 94 did surprise me, given it doesn’t seem to have much of a push behind it. Even more surprising was ‘Woman’ by Doja Cat catching a rebound off YouTube to 84, and ‘Cold As You’ by Luke Combs at 76 - really, you couldn’t push ‘The Other Guy’ instead, it’s a much better song… But our gains, if anything, are more all over the place… but mostly for good? I like ‘Pepas’ by Farruko continuing up to 52, and ‘You Should Probably Leave’ by Chris Stapleton rebounded well to 69, but off the debut we saw ‘You Time’ by Scotty McCreery at 81, ‘Gyalis’ by Capella Grey at 78, and ‘Volvi’ by Aventura and Bad Bunny at 22! Then we got a bunch of country gains of mixed quality - ‘Cold Beer Calling My Name’ by Jameson Rodgers and Luke Combs at 54, but ‘My Boy’ by Elvie Shane at 70 and ‘Memory I Don’t Mess With’ by Lee Brice at 74 - and the rest is tough to gauge. It looks like ‘Need To Know’ by Doja Cat has become a real streaming hit at 20, and ‘traitor’ by Olivia Rodrigo is getting pushed as the next single to 33 - come on, ‘brutal’ was right there - and it looks like ‘Come Through’ by H.E.R. ft. Chris Brown caught another boost to 71. But what I want to focus on is ‘Essence’ by Wizkid ft. Tems up at 44 - I was lukewarm on the song generally, but with the big Justin Bieber remix coming, because Lord knows that’s what anyone with taste really wants to hear, this is going to surge - be prepared for that conversation, because I don’t think it’s going to be fun.

And on a similar note, we’re heading into our healthy list of new arrivals, where we’re starting with…

100. ‘Rare’ by Nas - so to a lot of folks these days, Nas has been seeing a second wind of success and critical acclaim off of his King’s Disease albums with Hit-Boy… and yet I haven’t been interested in the slightest. Part of it is how the content and lyrical structure just doesn’t impress me the way it used to, part of it is knowing just how much of this is legacy reinforcement - I remember when Jay-Z was doing it and I didn’t care for it then either - part of it is Nas’ anti-vaxx bars and everything tied to the Kelis situation which blows holes in his increasingly high-handed moralism. I know I’m in the minority with this, but it’s hard to shake just having no motivation or curiosity to care… but he did debut two songs this week, with this being the first. And… look, I don’t really feel this, but I get someone who would - Hit-Boy’s percussion does knock if the vocals feel a little overcompressed and the blubbery sample sound like they were flipped from an old video game console before the horns and woodwinds flicker behind the buzzy synth, and Nas certainly steps up with some confidence in his bragging. But when Nas references Nietzsche, it makes a lot of sense in its framing in terms of further elevating those who already have success, glorification that feels increasingly hollow surrounding by Biggie references and only the faintest plea for the kids to stop beefing with each other. I’m not denying Nas has skill here - but on another level, I just don’t really care.

93. ‘Knowing You’ by Kenny Chesney - I’ll say this, I was surprised that Kenny Chesney was working another single from Here And Now - at least to me that album came and went in early May of last year - perhaps the worst possible timing for his usual breezy material, but maybe he thinks this summer will work better? Well, in the case of a late summer single, this is actually a post-breakup ballad where he muses about his ex who he got to know fairly well and wishes that she’d drift back into his life, but if she doesn’t… hell, it was a good experience, and he appreciates that. It’s honestly the sort of more mature song that I don’t mind hearing from Kenny Chesney especially as he sticks with more organic country instrumentation with the pedal steel and slightly sandy but live drumwork - although that breakdown at the end of the second verse was weird. But outside of that… yeah, this is well-timed and a pretty good song to boot - not exceptional, but I enjoyed it; nice stuff.

88. ‘I hope ur miserable until ur dead’ by Nessa Barrett - well, this was just a matter of time. Context: Nessa Barrett is a former TikTok star who got picked up by Warner to start releasing music, likely on the basis of having a massive follower count and why not optimize it to save money on promo? It also didn’t surprise me that she’s worked with jxdn before, so I was expecting some clumsily produced pop rock with an emo tinge, especially with that song title… and yet I actually think the production from Evan Blair is above average here. Yeah, the groove is undercooked and the percussion is over-emphasized, but the guitars finally have a bit of crunchy snarl that erupt out of the reverb pretty effectively and build a decent crescendo on the hook. But the problem is twofold, the first being that this is an astoundingly petty song, the sort of breakup kissoff where you expect a little self-awareness or a bit more detail surrounding what this guy actually did, but we get neither, especially as she implies there’s more she could say to ruin his life. But alright, if it’s sold well I might be able to get why it works… but Nessa Barrett is a really underwhelming presence behind the mic. It’s not a baby voiced coo or a coquettish bit of theatricality, she just comes across as really small and underpowered to sell a song this vicious… which only reinforces my thinking she got signed on follower count and virality over musical talent. I didn’t love Bella Poarch’s breakthrough either, but it felt more interesting and potent than this. Good production though, I’ll take that.

86. ‘Lose’ by KSI & Lil Wayne - It’s funny that just last week in On The Pulse on my main channel, I was on the fence whether KSI would ever cross over to the American charts, and yet with a deluxe single and a Lil Wayne feature, he was able to get there. And full disclosure, the second I heard the watery guitar tone and cheap trap percussion that felt so emblematic of modern emo rap, I had an idea where where this was going - Lil Wayne has never been shy about advertising his fondness for rock music - but what I did not expect was Lil Wayne to start singing the hook through all of the waves of autotune. The first time I heard it I burst out laughing, I couldn’t help myself - are we doing Rebirth again, some of us still remember the last time, or is it how this song is planned for Lil Wayne’s next project I Am Not A Human Being III, as if that’s a series that needs another sequel! What’s really funny is that this could have worked - when KSI takes the hook with his deeper vocal tone it actually could sound pretty good if the vocal mixing wasn’t a total mess, and while the post-breakup misery doesn’t give KSI much to work with, I actually think Lil Wayne’s verse is really damn good and focused! More importantly it feels like a song with an actual identity from both acts - hell, clean up the goddamn vocal mixing, give the percussion some texture and teeth, and keep Lil Wayne away from caterwauling and I’d be praising this! As it is, I had too much fun with this to outright dislike it, but I sure as shit can’t defend it… unless it winds up growing on me. And that could happen, fair warning.

82. ‘Buy Dirt’ by Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan - you know, Nashville, you don’t have to keep on enabling Jordan Davis by calling in a favour from Luke Bryan of all people to prop up his career? Granted, Luke Bryan’s been down this road before - some of us still remember ‘This Is How We Roll’ - but funnily enough 2014 Florida Georgia Line does come to mind with this song, because this is literally taking the exact same formula as ‘Dirt’ in looking to put down roots and playing to more homespun country cliches. And hell, it even shuns a lot of the overproduction that’s ruined so much of Jordan Davis’ music by going for a spare acoustic line across a more spacious mix where the percussion doesn’t overpower the song. Now I could be snide and say that it’s not like the future generations are ever going to be able to afford real estate so ‘buying dirt’ is a lot less of an option in any city, but I think the larger issue is that the gap in charisma between Luke Bryan and Jordan Davis is vast - Bryan’s vocal timbre is older and richer, he fits the texture of this song better, and Davis just comes across as a forgettable presence, which is one major reason why this isn’t as good Florida Georgia Line’s ‘Dirt’ for all of its ridiculous optimism and bombast. But in comparison with most of what Jordan Davis has released… this is fine. Not great, but not bad either.

80. ‘Repeat It’ by Lil Tecca & Gunna - you know, if there’s a song that’s not worth much analysis, especially in lyrics, it’s this one, coming from two of the most vacant performers in trap in the past few years. Kind of a shame because I actually really like this production - the jittery pianos and wiry plucks, fast snare, and more propulsive bass that drops back in harder for the hook is a nice touch, give this beat to a rapper who can do more with it and I’d be really impressed! Sadly, we’re stuck with Lil Tecca and Gunna, who default to a lot of basic flexing that’s unbelievably forgettable, even if they do repeat words to try and get this to stick! And yeah, Lil Tecca’s got a melodic flow that can flatter this, but when you realize how little he’s actually saying, outside of just pure catchiness I’m not sure there’s enough to really hold longer. Maybe hope for a remix with better rappers? Eh, I can dream.

79. ‘EPMD 2’ by Nas ft. Eminem & EPMD - a song like this is tough for me to talk about, because in terms of pure commercial attention it’s a cool moment: Eminem and Nas on the same track, and they got EPMD their first Hot 100 hits since the early 90s, that’s all cool, right? And yeah, I think EPMD is often slept on and two rap nerds using their platform to get them a minor hit is pretty cool - I honestly wish Eminem did a lot more of that. Well, I say that, because at first I was pretty into this with Nas building off an old EPMD hook and then PMD and Erick Sermon trading bars back and forth and it sounded cool and even if it’s just flexing backing the fuzzy choppy sample and sputtering percussion, that kind of thing works for a celebration, especially with just how much they’re all focused on legacy. And then Eminem comes in and even if his vocal pickup sounds rough and the puns he throws across his bars just made me wince, by the time he got to talking about the rappers we’ve lost and legacy and reconnecting with 50, I was trying to buy in… and then he ends the verse going offbeat for no adequate reason to rattle through name dropping and it just kills the mood. I want to say Eminem is better than this, but he’s been doing this all the time for the past few years - shame because I wanted to get behind this song, and now… it should be better.

67. ‘SUVs (Black On Black)’ by Jack Harlow & Pooh Shiesty - okay, on paper this makes sense - Jack Harlow has yet to stabilize his commercial appeal, so why not team up with Pooh Shiesty for a track, especially if he takes more of the lead as the better rapper. And you know, at first I was into this too - the fluttery horns and Spanish guitar sample is a pretty good compliment to the sandy trap percussion that feels a little better produced, and even if Jack Harlow is a bit of a goofball - there’s no excuse for that Life Alert line - he’s just relaxed and poised enough to pull me in… and then Pooh Shiesty shows up. And it reminds me of my issues with Blueface - it’s not that he's going off rhythm to sound uncanny or accentuate weird content, it feels more like a desperate attempt to be interesting and it comes across as incompetent, especially alongside Jack Harlow who is so technically sound. And again, it’s not like Pooh Shiesty is witty or interesting with his gunplay or brand name references, he’s just a lousy rapper who sounds a little like Gucci Mane but with somehow less talent. So yeah, this could have had promise… shame we lost that.

6. ‘Take My Breath’ by The Weeknd - I remember thinking that it’s weird The Weeknd is pushing a new album already, but After Hours did drop nearly a year and a half ago and it’s not his fault that the singles from that project have had such longevity. Now if I was in his camp I’d take a break, really refine the songs he has as to not oversaturate the market, but apparently this is his next lead-off single, and given his pretty impressive track record here, I did have some expectations. And… it’s an odd case, I have to say, not so much a clash of genres but a clash of eras. The vocal line and tighter bassline remind me of late 90s pop, especially with as much as The Weeknd spends in his falsetto, but then there’s the buzzy synthwave tones in his keyboards and percussion that feels very reminiscent of the 80s, especially with as much as The Weeknd has cribbed from Michael Jackson. I dunno, I’m not sure the fusion is hitting as strongly as I’d like, even if you can tell Max Martin punched up the melodies; granted, that’s often true with me and The Weeknd that his stuff takes a bit to grow on me, but the lyrics feel a little undercooked too, the sort of dancefloor hookup jam that’s very much in his wheelhouse but feels a little lacking for detail. Don’t get me wrong, this is good… but at least right now it’s not on the level of his best breakthrough singles, and the sooner he gets to working with Oneohtrix Point Never and Arca like he’s been saying he will, the better.

So it places me in an odd spot for this week, as while I have the best and worst, there’s not a lot that really jumps out. I’m a little surprised to admit this, but ‘Knowing You’ by Kenny Chesney is going to get my best of the week, with ‘Take My Breath’ by The Weeknd with the Honourable Mention - I know it’s probably to grow on me, I’ll say it again, but it’s not there yet. Now for the worst… ‘I hope ur miserable until ur dead’ by Nessa Barrett doesn’t work for me, with the Dishonourable Mention going to ‘SUVs (Black On Black)’ by Jack Harlow and Pooh Shiesty - tempted to throw KSI and Lil Wayne here, but at least that song’s redeeming moments and hilarity pulled through, whereas Pooh Shiesty just sucks. Next week… I still get the impression it’s going to be a bit quiet at least for another week or two, we’ll have to see…