billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - august 19, 2023

You know, normally post-album bombs the charts are a total mess to wade through, and I’m not going to say this week is great or anything, even if it might be mercifully shorter. But it is one of those fascinating cases where Travis Scott just…lingered and we’re in the middle of the summer doldrums so nothing much came to challenge him. There is definitely more tumult coming, though…

And for once, it’s targeted on the Top 10, because while for another week ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen had the #1, this is nearing the end of the road - yeah, streaming is still good, but the radio is dumping it and I don’t see any sales margin maintaining success here. This opens up the competition I’ve been talking about for weeks now, starting with ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs at #2 - it’s up in all channels, if there’s a time to make a move, it’s going to be next week… and what it’ll come down to is either that Oliver Anthony song coming out of nowhere - we’ll get to that next week - or ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #3, which is also up in all channels and it’s going to come down to the margins, especially as ‘Fast Car’ is edging it out right now but has a little less momentum. What isn’t really in the conversation is ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez at #4 - definitely has peaked on the radio, but it has enough stability that any descent is going to be slower, especially with the little streaming it has. Was enough to hold over ‘fukumean’ by Gunna at #5, where it finally has a little radio, but it’s predominantly here on streaming and is having more longevity that I frankly expected. Next we have ‘vampire’ by Olivia Rodrigo - when the radio has thrown so much behind this, it can kind of skate around how streaming is still softer than you’d expect, and on that note we have ‘Dance The Night’ by Dua Lipa at #7, where the radio growth is strong but slower, and it actually has a slight edge on streams. Then holding quite steady we have ‘Barbie World’ by Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice and Aqua at #8 - the streaming is still really stable for this one, especially given radio slowly sliding in behind it, and on that frustrating note, ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #9, where it might be bleeding radio, but it has so much inertia in that channel that it hasn’t fallen much at all. Finally we actually have a new entry in the top 10, and one I did not see coming: ‘Snooze’ by SZA. I might chalk this one up more to positional losses for Travis Scott rather than its own strength, as the radio run seems about done, but it has just enough in other channels to get it here, not too bad.

This takes us to our losers and dropouts… and in the latter group, it’s just whatever was at the bottom for Post Malone and Travis Scott, very little of note. And when we get to our losers… yeah, that’s still true. Might as well knock out ‘In Your Love’ by Tyler Childers seeing a dip to 55 off the debut, as did ‘Jealousy’ by Offset and Cardi B at 83 - and while we’re here, the Post Malone songs taking losses were ‘Mourning’ at 56 and ‘Overdrive’ at 97. But again, the story here is that Travis Scott and UTOPIA really took their sweet time in a slow descent here: ‘I KNOW?’ at 22, ‘FE!N’ with Playboi Carti at 24, ‘MY EYES’ at 44, ‘TOPIA TWINS’ with Rob49 and 21 Savage at 46, ‘THANK GOD’ at 64, ‘HYAENA’ at 70, ‘MODERN JAM’ with Teezo Touchdown at 71, ‘TIL FURTHER NOTICE’ with James Blake and 21 Savage at 85, ‘SIRENS’ at 87, ‘GOD’S COUNTRY’ at 89, ‘SKITZO’ with Young Thug at 92, and ‘DELRESTO (ECHOES)’ with Beyonce at 93.

Now for our returns and gains… okay, the former group is kind of interesting as the stuff rushing in at the bottom to fill in the gaps… well, except ‘Blank Space’ by Taylor Swift is back at 49 thanks to the announcement that 1989 (Taylor’s Version) is coming later this year. But there are surprises here - I’m legit stunned that Zach Bryan managed to get ‘Oklahoma Smokeshow’ back at 86 and ‘Dawns’ with Maggie Rogers to 99, to say nothing of ‘SEE YOU AGAIN’ by Tyler, The Creator with Kali Uchis leaping back to 94. Outside of those… ‘Angels Don’t Always Have Wings’ by Thomas Rhett is here thanks to the Nashville stimulus package to 78, ‘Save Me’ by Jelly Roll and Lainey Wilson is also on the ascent in the same way at 88, and Peso Pluma got a few returns with ‘Lagunas’ with Jasiel Nunez at 96 and ‘Rubicon’ at 100. Now as for the gains… look, it’s basically a reset post album bomb, there’s forty songs… let’s just run through them all so folks know where we’re at, especially given that we have so few debuts this week and thus have time. Let’s start with the cuts that didn’t lose much last week and saw jumps, like ‘Johnny Dang’ by That Mexican OT, Paul Wall, and DRODi at 79, or ‘What It Is (Block Boy)’ by Doechii and Kodak Black at 50, or ‘Baby Don’t Hurt Me’ by David Guetta, Anne-Marie and Coi Leray at 48, or ‘You, Me & Whiskey’ by Justin Moore and Priscilla Block at 37, or ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift at 18 or ‘Religiously’ by Bailey Zimmerman at 17 - I’m still stunned this is now a hit, my god. Now let’s consider the songs that saw gains of twenty or more positions, which I would assume have more momentum, like ‘Watermelon Moonshine’ by Lainey Wilson up big to 39, or ‘Daylight’ by David Kushner up to 45, or ‘White Horse’ by Chris Stapleton at 59, or ‘TRUCK BED’ by HARDY at 61 or ‘Jaded’ at 73… real emotional whiplash there. Now for the rest… let’s go from the bottom up: ‘Oh U Went’ by Young Thug and Drake at 84, ‘Hearbroken’ by Diplo, Jessie Murph, and Polo G at 81, ‘Memory Lane’ by Old Dominion at 80, ‘Shake Sumn’ by DaBaby at 72, ‘Everything I Love’ by Morgan Wallen at 69, and ‘Popular’ by The Weeknd, Playboi Carti and Madonna at 67. Then we have ‘Super Shy’ by NewJeans at 66, ‘Tulum’ by Peso Pluma and Grupo Frontera at 65, ‘I Can See You’ by Taylor Swift at 63, ‘Eyes Closed’ by Ed Sheeran at 62, and ‘Sabor Fresa’ by Fuerza Regida at 60. Then we have ‘Your Heart Or Mine’ by Jon Pardi at 58, ‘Peaches & Eggplants’ by Young Nudy and 21 Savage at 54, ‘Lady Gaga’ by Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H at 47, ‘LALA’ by Myke Towers at 53, and ‘un x100to’ by Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny at 47 - I’m guessing some of the success here is due to Grupo Frontera’s album, that’s plausible. Then we have ‘Put It On The Floor Again’ by Latto and Cardi B at 41, ‘Search & Rescue’ by Drake at 40, ‘La Bebe’ by Yng Lvcas and Peso Pluma at 38, ‘Bury Me In Georgia’ by Kane Brown at 36, ‘Thought You Should Know’ by Morgan Wallen at 34, ‘Love You Anyway’ by Luke Combs at 33, ‘Next Thing You Know’ by Jordan Davis at 32, ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma at 31, and ‘Dial Drunk’ by Noah Kahan and Post Malone seeing real momentum at 30! Finally, ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii at 26, ‘Cupid’ by Fifty Fifty at 25, ‘Thinkin’ Bout Me’ by Morgan Wallen at 23, ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, The Weeknd and 21 Savage at 20, and ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA at 19.

Got all that? Good, because we have a grand total of only three songs to talk about on Billboard BREAKDOWN today! So let’s get this started with…

82. ‘El Amor de Su Vida’ by Grupo Frontera & Grupo Firme - I think I may have even surprised myself when I reviewed the debut album from Grupo Frontera - it wound up on my schedule, I thought it was good while not really being my thing, and I was generally satisfied and curious to see how much of an impact on the charts it would have. Unfortunately, this is one of the songs I didn’t really care for that much: the drums feel weirdly muffled, the groove feel weirdly stodgy and slow, and while the frontmen of both groups have okay chemistry and the bassline is fine, the shaky, live-sounding production isn’t enough to put this among the upper tier of the album. And then there’s the content… it’s a barroom commiseration where the girl has moved on and they’re just getting drunk watching from the sidelines, and I’m not sure they make the best of the interplay, although this may be an issue with the translations I’ve found. Ironically, for as much as this is touted as a big collab, it feels very run-of-the-mill to me - not bad, per se, but I’m gonna struggle to remember much of this.

68. ‘Good Good’ by Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - so look, it’s going to be hard for me to complain that we have a new Usher song - I’m not the biggest Summer Walker fan, but 21 Savage could work with the right production and vibe, I was curious to see how this would turn out, especially given all the buzz Usher has received for a really well-received Vegas residency. And with this… outside of that synth melody reminding me a bit too much of ‘Lovers & Friends’ and the whole mix feeling a little too compressed especially in the vocal mixing, I like that post-breakup sentiment where Usher recognizes that the relationship didn’t work but still has positive feelings towards to that ex; it’s a more mature R&B sentiment that if you get older and have any exes that are friends, it can be a true experience. I don’t think Summer Walker does the most with this, and there’s a slightly defensive angle in 21’s verse that felt a little contradictory to the message of the song - especially when he says he can still come through and fuck, even if it’s just a joke - but the fact that everyone here is as game as they are leads to a really well-constructed R&B song. Not sure I’d place this close to Usher’s best… look, I’m just happy he’s back.

15. ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat - I’ve been conflicted with Doja Cat for a while now: she rakes into all of the pop / R&B she previously released as being mainstream sellout material - and it is - and she’s fighting with her record label saying that her new material is more challenging and alternative, and given said labels are Kemosabe and RCA, I’m entirely okay with her bringing the knives out. But then we get the music and it’s a mid-tempo pop/R&B cut leaning on a Dionne Warwick sample and stock snap beat that has none of that intensity or energy. Now the content is leaning in that direction, with a lot of flexing that she’s doing things her own way, that she’s let our clout and success get to her head and she prefers a rebellious attitude to the point where she’s even slagging her stans - and fair enough, she wouldn’t be the first popstar to do that, but the energy here feels off and I’m not sure why. I think it comes down to how the sound doesn’t reflect rebellion at all, or even the older, wilder pop rap she mostly set aside in the late 2010s, and it doesn’t feel like there’s a purpose behind the transgression outside of the thrill of just doing it… except not much of a transgression, this feels pretty safe. It’s ironic that I’m covering this a day after I reviewed Noname’s most recent album with far more loaded lyrical transgressions while the sound remained very accessible, and it’s a similar discordance, but there’s even less bite or stakes to this, especially as any callout of the labels feels very limited when you had to get that sample cleared. Not saying it’s bad - the song is remarkably catchy - but I absolutely understand if folks are less than impressed by this one.

And that’s our week - yes, it’s shorter, but I think I’ve got the right to take it a bit easier every now and then. It does make picking the best and worst relatively straightforward, though: best is going to ‘Good Good’ by Usher, Summer Walker, and 21 Savage, worst is going to ‘El Amor de Su Vida’ by Grupo Frontera and Grupo Firme. Next week… it might be quiet except for some ridiculous stuff near the top ten with Olivia Rodrigo and Oliver Anthony, we’ll have to see…