billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - april 8, 2023

I feel like I was expecting this week to be more chaotic than it is - I thought Luke Combs was going to get an album bomb and yet that didn’t really happen, much to my chagrin. And that leaves us with a week that I’m not gonna call routine so much as familiar - we’ve been down this road before, it’s a more interesting chart week, I’m certainly intrigued as to where we’re going next!

So let’s start with the top ten, where for a change of pace we have a #1 debut, and one I actually predicted from last week: ‘Like Crazy’ by Jimin. Now I’ll get into the details of the song later on, but it’s very straightforward as to why this debuted at the top: sales, and at frankly absurd margins we haven’t seen since 2021! Now there’s some YouTube, but streaming and radio otherwise are not behind this, this is the sort of mass-buying the BTS fanbase are well-accustomed to delivering - what surprises me is that Jimin got the huge sales push and not some of the other members of BTS, is there something I’m missing there? Regardless, unlike ‘Butter’ I don’t see this lasting in the same way - Billboard has quietly de-emphasized sales and cracked down on some of the loopholes I exposed two years ago, so it’ll be fascinating to see how sharply this falls off. And that probably means that ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus will rise again from #2 - dominant on radio, consistently strong elsewhere, it might just hold off ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen as well at #3, which has considerably better streams but is still chasing that radio margin. And all of this strands ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA at #4 - the streaming is there, it looks like she’s properly getting a radio push, if it gets a discount or the slightest of shifts, I’m not going to count this out of a push for the very top. ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd at #5, I will - streaming is down, radio is peaking, it’s not closing any margins, and ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd and Ariana Grande isn’t even trying as it slips to #6 with its radio in freefall. Then we have ‘Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2’ by PinkPantheress and Ice Spice, and while I thought this had so much momentum to make a run, especially as the streaming is so consistent, it hasn’t been closing the radio margin fast enough, so it’s stranded at #7. Compare this to ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez holding at #8 - streaming is slowly getting onboard, and the radio is only picking up speed, I believe this has the staying power to rise even further! The last two are pretty straightforward here: ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift at #9, clearly on the exit albeit with radio inertia, and ‘Players’ by Col Leray at #10 with the radio keeps plugging this with solid sales, but the streaming isn’t really there - interesting.

But now for the losers and dropouts… where again, there’s not much in the latter category worth discussing outside of maybe ‘Freestyle’ by Lil Baby finally losing the last of its virality and falling away after being given more than a chance to hold on. The losers are a distinctly mixed bag, so let’s get the Morgan Wallen cuts out of the way quickly: ‘Everything I Love’ at 48, ‘Ain’t That Some’ at 49, ‘Sunrise’ at 77, ‘98 Braves’ at 79, ‘Dying Man’ at 90, and ‘Whiskey Friends’ at 98. Then we had the debuts from last week that stalled out - as expected ‘All Of The Girls You Loved Before’ by Taylor Swift slid to 39, as did ‘El Gordo Trae El Mando’ by Chino Pacas at 95 and ‘Eat Your Young’ by Hozier at 96. Then we had the one gain that lost traction with ‘What He Didn’t Do’ by Carly Pearce at 47 - I do wish this song would do a little better, its momentum seems kind of tenuous at the moment - and speaking of momentum ‘River’ by Miley Cyrus continues to collapse at 80. The rest here… ‘Going Going Gone’ by Luke Combs slid to 42 mostly because it’s getting replaced by other Luke Combs tracks and it’s already clinched a year-end list spot, ‘BZRP Music Sessions, vol. 53’ with Bizarrap and Shakira hit 63 as it’s on its way out, then we have two SZA songs that I unironically want to last a bit longer if only so they can hit the year end list with ‘Nobody Gets Me’ at 65 and ‘Low’ at 91 - the former has a shot, the latter… not likely. And finally, ‘ceilings’ by Lizzy McAlpine fell to 70 as it looks like the viral moment is petering out… kind of a shame, not gonna lie.

Now for our returns and gains… well, for some ungodly reason ‘Slut Me Out’ by NLE Choppa is back at 82, and it looks like ‘Low Down’ by Lil Baby is filling the quota of ‘deep cut Lil Baby song going viral for no reason’ at 50, but this is Luke Combs’ story, as ‘Growin’ Up And Gettin’ Old’ is back at 54, and switching over to our gains he saw the most impact with ‘Love You Anyway’ up to 24 and ‘5 Leaf Clover’ at 33 - major win even if he doesn’t get the album bomb, I’m very happy with that. The other gains… well, ‘La Bebe’ by Yng Lvcas and Peso Pluma went to 34, I’m assuming because of Peso Pluma’s push alongside a reggaeton sound being an easier sell on streaming, but what interests me is ‘ICU’ by Coco Jones rising to 74. I’m not sure where her push is manifesting just yet, but I’m going to keep an eye on this and hope the production issues don’t sour me on what is otherwise a sound I really like.

But now onto our new arrivals… and again, it’s all over the place this week, starting with…

100. ‘Memory Lane’ by Old Dominion - look, I know some folks have turned around on Old Dominion over the past few years and while I can admit their music has gotten a bit better, I’m still waiting for the moment for them to really click… and yeah, this isn’t quite working either, have to say it. Don’t get me wrong, if you’re going to have a programmed drum machine I prefer it to keep a nice shuffling rollick, but in this case it comes at the expense of any robust bassline or indeed much low-end presence at all, even if the guitar work is brighter. Granted, that raises questions of tone, where this song seems to be yearning for an old relationship, which they even describe as a happy delusion… which okay, but normally you shade with some melancholy in the writing or especially the vocal delivery and it just doesn’t really manifest, it feels too polished and thin to get there. I dunno, I get what this is trying to do…I’m still not wowed, though.

97. ‘CH y La Pizza’ by Fuerza Regida & Natanael Cano - Okay, so one thing I’ve been told surrounding the regional Mexican scene is that it’s designed for more of a communal experience - it’s why the production tends to suck, it’s more for the live flair. That seems a bit incongruent with this new track, which is all about praising the Sinaloa drug cartel, specifically the new generation a part of it. and what makes this interesting is that the gang flexing is more between the lines, so it comes across as tangibly dangerous, especially as the duo doesn’t center themselves like a lot of rappers do with their street connections, and even they are more careful than to namedrop gangs as explicitly these days. Either way, I’m not surprised we eventually wound up here but the tone overall is weird… thankfully with all the staccato trumpets and painfully brittle guitars and amateurish song construction, I can point to another failure in execution even Fuerza Regida’s rougher tone kind of fits it. Still… I’m not a fan of this sound as it is, I’d prefer this goes away. Speaking of which…

86. ‘The Light’ by Juice WRLD - I don’t think I can be angry about this anymore. I want to be - it’s been over three years since he died, this has long passed the point of good taste - and I do take some cold comfort in the songs charting lower all the time, but nothing is changing and the fans still clearly want it. And to be fair, this is a version of Juice WRLD’s sound that I’d be closer to liking - the jangling guitars balanced with percussion that builds a solid clattering groove with a lot of fake handclaps before switching into a sharper trap groove, Juice WRLD singing more, a slightly more optimistic outlook in the love song framing, albeit a very clingy and conflicted version of it with some pretty basic observations of how some handle heartbreak that he wants to avoid going forward. And as such… I can’t get angry at this outside of the circumstances of its release, and away from that… eh, it’s fine, let’s move on.

81. ‘DOGTOOTH’ by Tyler, The Creator - so we might get a minor album bomb from Tyler, The Creator with the deluxe tracks from CALL ME IF YOU GET LOST - I’m not normally a fan of deluxe album bombs but that album has aged a bit better than I frankly expected and its best songs are among my favourites in Tyler’s catalog, so I was excited for this… and while I don’t think this is bad by any means, I do get why it was left off the album two years ago. The bleeping gloss of the synths alongside the rumbling trap bounce that’s actually better blended than the majority of that album, but I’m not really wowed by Tyler’s hook or flexing here; he brags better than most, but this texture of his chill is more high fashion and it doesn’t really have a swerve to give it more bite or flair. So yeah, it’s not bad… but I’m not wowed by it either, just saying.

69. ‘Don’t Play With It’ by Lola Brooke x Latto x Yung Miami or ft. Billy B - okay, how to explain this one: Lola Brooke is a Brooklyn rapper who released the original version of this song with Billy B back in 2021, where it caught some virality on TikTok, got her signed and opening for A Boogie, and now a big remix with Latto and Yung Miami of City Girls to actually chart. Shame because the Billy B original is better - it fits the rougher underground vibe and I frankly like her verse than either of what we got from Latto or Yung Miami, the former who tries to clap back at the payola accusations - Latto, you’re signed to Dr. Luke, we know how the radio traction got rolled in - and Yung Miami makes me wish that City Girls could have stuck the landing more effectively. Otherwise this is actually pretty decent - Lola Brooke has some tangible, contemptuous intensity and flair against the skittering rumble, and the sexually charged bars blurring across the gunplay hits a decent enough mark of being explicit across the grind. As an MC she’s technically sharper than GloRilla and has more charisma than Ice Spice, so… maybe this works? We’ll have to see?

52. ‘Beso’ by ROSALIA & Rauw Alejandro - so these two are engaged now - they’ve been romantic partners for years but now appear to be planning to tie the knot and they dropped a collaborative EP, with this being the song that’s getting a push. And despite have some limited expectations around this, I found myself liking the chalky groove as the keys and watery guitars well up around the groove, and the duo has pretty good chemistry. I do think I’m losing a bit having to translate the steamy love jam to English, where the poetry doesn’t quite have that same touch, but at the same time, I think it still works - I’d be fine if this stuck around, good song.

44. ‘Fast Car’ by Luke Combs - This has been longer in coming than some will realize - Luke Combs first covered ‘Fast Car’ during his pandemic sessions, it’s long been a staple of his live shows, and Combs clearly loves the original so much that he doesn’t do any hacky changes - he still is writing from the perspective of the girl caught in a cycle of poverty who wants to chase the dreams but is stuck trying to support her alcoholic father and deadbeat partner, where the hardest choice comes in breaking that cycle. So does it scan a little weird to hear his gruff, masculine voice singing from the perspective of the checkout girl, maybe, but there’s gonna be some queer folks who didn’t hear the Xiu Xiu cover who’ll find a resonance in this mode of performance. Granted, some will argue that coming from Tracy Chapman that subtext has always been there, and this is not better than the original - hell, if asked I know Luke Combs would admit that in a heartbeat. But it’s also one hell of a cover of one of the best songs of all time in my humble opinion, and while I’m not one to often praise covers that feel so obviously faithful and don’t do much to distinguish themselves beyond it… I think there’s going to be a moment with this song, and any opportunity to get back on folks’ radar is a win - fantastic stuff.

26. ‘Eyes Closed’ by Ed Sheeran - something very odd is happening with the rollout of this next Ed Sheeran album. You get all this buzz with his connection to Aaron Dessner of The National and bringing Fred again… back in, looking to go more in an indie folk direction… and then on the lead-off single we have Max Martin and Shellback, who are good songwriters but they don’t exactly blend? Here’s the thing, Ed Sheeran has written a lot of excellent songs about loss and death that’s touched people in his life - ‘Afire Love’, ‘Supermarket Flowers’, ‘Visiting Hours’ - and you can tell he’s trying to lean into the autotune-inflected brittle acoustics where he tries to find a moment to commemorate his lost friend on the dancefloor; hell, that could be a natural fit for Fred again…’s production. But then you have the leaden, clunky percussion, the very stark pop post-chorus, the weird changes in rhythm on the prechorus, and neither the sense of intimacy nor bombast really manifest well - it falls into an awkward middle ground that unfortunately leaves Sheeran in his upper register for a lot of this song. I’m not going to call it bad - the sentiment somehow still slips through, Sheeran is really good at selling that sincerity - but it’s awkward; if this underperforms even outside of the expected radio push, I wouldn’t be surprised.

1. ‘Like Crazy’ by Jimin - and here’s the big one, the single that all the BTS army came out in force to muscle to the very top of the charts… and I’ll give him this, I think I like this more than the single from last week, especially for as much the song tries to embrace a sizzling, pulsating synthwave grandeur, especially with that fizzy gated percussion and fat low-end. And that does add some mystique to the lovestruck content, although all the whispered samples drawing reference to the 2011 romantic drama Like Crazy feels odd - the stylism of this song doesn’t match the movie at all outside of the gentle acoustics on the intro. I think what’s weirder about this song is that it seems like it’s building to a strong melodic hook and I’m not sure one really manifests - the song meanders and builds some impressive atmosphere, but it doesn’t really have a climax moment, and that might be a flaw of Jimin’s delivery; he’s got an expressive register, but it feels swallowed by production this huge. Again, this song is not here because it’s some masterclass of composition, it’s on fandom, and it leads to the same lingering hollowness I found with ‘Butter’ - it’s not bad, but I’m not sure there’s enough of a reason for me to care.

And that was our week… kind of a weird one, not going to mince words. The worst falls out easy with ‘CH y la Pizza’ by Fuerza Regida and Natanael Cano, but Dishonourable Mention is tricky… you know what, I’d be giving it to Juice WRLD on principle and the song is otherwise fine, so let’s go with a tie for Honourable Mention between ‘Beso’ by ROSALIA and Rauw Alejandro and ‘Don’t Play With It’ by Lola Brooke but specifically the Billy B version - the best of the week is the ‘Fast Car’ cover by Luke Combs, I have a sneaking suspicion this cover is going to be way bigger this year than folks might expect, just wait. Next week… maybe with Interscope backing them boygenius might get something? We’ll have to see…