billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - april 29, 2023

…so I think I have to come out and say it: there’s a paradigm shift going on with the Hot 100 right now. Things are changing, and while I’ve written some of it off in the past as a trend - and I still think it kind of is, I’m not sure how sustainable any of these shifts are - it’s hard for me not to notice, even if the chart activity seems relatively stable given the relative lack of album bombs. And yes, I know we got a #1, but truth be told, that’s a story that should have happened months ago, the clunky system we have just took too long to get there.

But let’s get it out of the way: our new #1, ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA, her first ever. It’s important to highlight that while the Doja Cat remix likely drove the sales boost and a bit of streaming recovery, it’s still primarily credited to SZA alone here, especially given radio tracking - it reminds me of how ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa was credited on Billboard when it got its remix. Nevertheless, they played the Hot 100 better than I expected, even if in our hearts this probably went to #1 back last December instead of Christmas music dominating everything, and it was enough to crack over ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen at #2, which dominates streaming and spent the week surging on the radio, but this lost on the margins. All of this leaves ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus at #3 - radio has absolutely peaked and it’s on the downswing on streaming, but sales are still strong, so it might have a slower exit. This takes us to a new top ten entry and one that did surprise me a bit: a remix of Ice Spice’s ‘Princess Diana’, now featuring Nicki Minaj. We’ll get into the song more later on, but with a big sales splash and streaming already in, it’s going to be interesting to see how quickly radio decides to get onboard, if at all. But the bigger story here seems to be ‘Ella Baila Sola’ by Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma up big to #5, pretty much on titanic streams alone because the radio’s not touching this, even if sales are better than you might expect. It bowled right past ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd down to #6 - although its radio being in freefall probably had more to do with that - as well as ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez at #7, where the radio growth is still there, but streaming really isn’t, so this became a margin’s game. Then there’s ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd and Ariana Grande at #8 - it had a mostly stable week on the radio but it’s also slipping - the expected falloff for ‘Search and Rescue’ by Drake to #9 - it’s picking up radio faster than you might expect but nowhere enough to offset the streaming losses - and ‘Boy’s A Liar Pt. 2’ by Ice Spice and PinkPantheress at #10, where despite some weight getting thrown behind its radio, with the streaming losses it might be too little, too late.

That takes us to our losers and dropouts, and there are some big notable ones in the latter category, although most we could have seen coming. Falling unfortunately short of year-end list territory we have ‘What He Didn’t Do’ by Carly Pearce, but we did have a bunch of songs handily clinch their year-end list spot with their exits: ‘Golden Hour’ by JVKE, ‘Going, Going, Gone’ by Luke Combs, ‘CUFF IT’ by Beyonce, and ‘Until I Found You’ by Stephen Sanchez. Now our losers are an interesting mix: some are predictable, like off the debut ‘Happy’ by NF plummeting to 87 and ‘Strike (Holster)’ by Lil Yachty at 83, or the continued losers like ‘Fight The Feeling’ by Rod Wave at 55 and ‘5 Leaf Clover’ by Luke Combs at 92 - nothing personal with that one, there’s lots of great Luke Combs on the charts right now. Then there’s ‘Heart Like A Truck’ by Lainey Wilson naturally on its way out at 49 - it’s got its year-end spot locked up - a natural decline for ‘All Of The Girls You Loved Before’ by Taylor Swift at 76, and ‘Like Crazy’ by Jimin continuing to collapse at 85 given that the sales are gone. What did surprise me a bit was ‘Special’ by Lizzo and SZA just never getting going at 91, and ‘Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53’ by Bizarrap and Shakira at 93 - it’s probably going to just miss year-end list territory, it seems quite borderline right now, but frankly, it held better than I expected.

Now to our returns and gains - in the former category it’s just ‘Heaven’ by Niall Horan at 94, given the radio has somewhat gotten onboard - but if you want to look at the paradigm shift, you have to look at our gains. Let’s get the easy ones out of the way: ‘Never Felt So Alone’ by Labrinth saw a nice boost to 62 with some streaming pickup likely thanks to Billie Eilish’s presence on the song, ‘Cupid’ by Fifty Fifty has even better streams rising to 50, and ‘Peaches’ by Jack Black went just viral enough to rise off its debut to 56. But the story this week, like it was last week, is the regional Mexican surge, predominantly helmed by Peso Pluma or Grupo Frontera. For the former, ‘Por Las Noches’ is up to 32, ‘PRC’ with Natanael Cano rose to 35, ‘AMG’ with Natanael Cano and Gabito Ballesteros is up to 40, and ‘El Azul’ with Junior H surged off the debut to 59. In the latter group, ‘Bebe Dame’ with Fuerza Regida rose to 52, and ‘Que Vuelvas’ with Carin Leon going to 82. And then there’s ‘El Gordo Trae El Mando’ by Chino Pacas rising to 75 - look, I don’t know how long this is going to last, I’ve seen waves of music like this come and go before, but there seems to be enough sustained traction that you need to take this seriously… frankly, I just wished I liked more of it or could tell more of it apart, but that’s a journey I’m still taking.

And trust me, we’re not done with regional Mexican music, but before we get to it in our new arrivals, let’s start with…

100. ‘It Matters To Her’ by Scotty McCreery - look, I can’t get that annoyed that Scotty McCreery is trying to get late album singles from Same Truck even though that album dropped in 2021, especially given how well ‘Damn Strait’ performed. I also can’t be mad that he’s not pushing ‘The Waiter’, my other favourite song on that album but is very obviously a deep cut. But man, this is playing it safe in neotraditional boyfriend country even with all of the welcome pedal steel. The hook melody is fine but not special, McCreery isn’t making the most of his impressive voice, and while the writing is generally sweet for highlighting all the little things you can do that will matter to her, it feels very by-the-numbers to me. It’s not bad - McCreery’s got a high floor when it comes to quality - and I know I’m not in the target audience for this… but I’m not sure I’d ever seek this out

99. ‘Di Que Si’ by Grupo Marca Registrada & Grupo Frontera - yeah, we’ve got a lot of regional Mexican music ahead, this time with Grupo Frontera bringing on another group that are new to me and the Hot 100. Now one thing I like with Grupo Frontera is that they bring more accordion to anchor the melody and warmer textures to bear, so while this all still sounds underproduced, overall it’s a slightly more likable sound palette, especially for a yearning apology song trying to win this girl back. Not going to say it’s all that distinctive overall, but it’s on the more likable side of this subgenre for me, I’m fine with this.

90. ‘Igualito A Mi Apa’ by Fuerza Regida and Peso Pluma - yeah, so this is much worse to me - the acoustics are way closer to the front of the mix and sound even more clipped and thin, the trumpets sound even more farty than usual, and the squawking vocal interplay can’t get around how there’s no hook and barely any structure to this! I do think there’s a bit more going on in the content - from what I can translate, this is about these guys are living up to their fathers’ legacies, trying to do them proud with more of a focus on family… and by the second verse the focus is way more on luxury brands and flexing. I dunno, the execution of this doesn’t work for me at all, but I feel like there was the seeds of something here that feels fumbled. So no, I don’t care for it.

88. ‘Chanel’ by Becky G & Peso Pluma - not gonna lie, when I started seeing other Latin pop acts hop on towards the regional Mexican sound my stomach sank - sure, a rising tide lifts all ships, from what I’ve been told this is less a takeover of the sound and more just inviting a guest in to jam, but I’ve seen acts hop on sounds like this for a moment and a cheque and then dip, so even if I mostly like Becky G, I wasn’t sure if I wanted her anywhere near this. I guess it forces there to be a bit more production and structure, but the acoustics are still painfully brittle and the horns are as farty as ever and feel somehow louder, and Becky G trying to bring her brand of slick coolness… she doesn’t have that exuberance to match it at all! Granted, the vibes of this song are sour all around - a post-breakup song where they’re both left hurt and confused and still thinking they might want each other back despite knowing better, especially as Peso Pluma got another girl who picked the same luxury brands and got dumped by her too! I do appreciate there’s a bit more going on here… but man, I just don’t want to listen to this at all.

65. ‘See You Again’ by Tyler, The Creator ft. Kali Uchis - …so I guess we’re just going to make album cuts that should have been smashes six years ago into charting hits now, eh? Now it’s hard for me to complain about this - ‘See You Again’ was one of my favourite songs on Flower Boy back in 2017 and going back to it now it’s still absolutely great. I still don’t love Tyler’s singing but with a little less refinement and processing against the richer pianos and twinkling synths as the strings, rich horns, and percussion punch up, there’s a deeper well of emotion that really works for me, especially with Kali Uchis’ sweeter delivery complimenting him well. And one thing I like is how there’s that wistful frustration at its core - seeing someone you adore in your dreams, but never quite being able to connect more deeply. Not my top favourite from Flower Boy - I think that’s still ‘Garden Shed’ or ‘Boredom’ - but it’s still great, and worth the revisit.

48. ‘Daylight’ by David Kushner - not gonna lie, when I saw this guy’s name the first person I thought of was Jared Kushner, who had connections to the ex-POS-in-chief. Thankfully that’s not the case - he’s a TikTok influencer from Chicago, he had a breakout EP and single last year, and this is the first one that landed on the US charts… and wow, someone really wants to be Hozier, down to getting Rob Kirwan to produce to get that haunted sound around his pianos and heavier drums and the roiling sizzle of guitars on the final hook, although I have no idea why he smothered the vocals with that fuzz on the chorus. So why do I like this a lot less? Well, it’s tough to pin down, but I think the root of it comes in the lyrics and framing, half because a lot of the metaphors feel like diet Hozier, but also that this is weirdly sexless. The obvious comparison is ‘Take Me To Church’, but that song - and a lot of Hozier’s catalog - is very horny, with a lot of swampy swagger that’s rooted in blues, whereas when I discovered how much of Kushner’s writing is heavily inspired by his Christian faith, it completely sucks out that danger and comes across as ponderous and clunky. And if you’ve heard enough Christian music in this lane, the formula begins to feel very obvious - no doubt the kid has talent, but what he’s choosing to make… yeah, I can’t get behind this, in more ways than one.

15. ‘Un x100to’ by Grupo Frontera & Bad Bunny - not gonna lie, like with Becky G I was kind of worried about this, the major label acts hopping on the sound to appropriate the sound and then bounce… but Bad Bunny has always been liberal with his cosigns and using his starpower to elevate his peers, and Grupo Frontera is one in the regional Mexican scene I like a little more, so maybe it would work? Honestly… I still have issues with the acoustic mixing sounding a bit canned - and I don’t know why they piled on so many effects for Bad Bunny’s verse when he actually fits well alongside Grupo Frontera on the hook - but there’s more structure to this, the bass and drum mixing feels a bit sharper, and while I could wish for more interplay, I think Bad Bunny’s presence makes a bit more sense in regional Mexican music in matching the broad melodrama. And that kind of works for the content as well, where they all have 1% left of battery on their phones and their ex has already moved on and they’re in their feelings about it - there’s a messiness in the framing that feels emotionally resonant. So yeah, I’m not totally sold, but this worked for me more than I thought it would - not my favourite within this subgenre, but I did like it, good song.

13. ‘Chemical’ by Post Malone - so here’s my hypothesis - after Twelve Carat Toothache and the infamously troubled promotion behind the scenes for that album, I knew it was only a matter of time before Post Malone was back in earnest, they weren’t going to try to milk that many songs out of the album - even if it was leaving money on the table to not push ‘Wasting Angels’ with Kid LAROI, that one was a slam dunk. Anyway, he’s got Louis Bell and watt back behind the boards for this song tacked onto Post Malone’s first greatest hits album and… I get the feeling I should like this a bit more than I do? Going for more of a driving pop rock groove with the jingling live drums and driving twinkle in the guitars and piano, it almost feels like someone was listening a bit too much to The War On Drugs especially with how much reverb swells through the song. And the messy, drug-infused back-and-forth relationship of the song could very easily work for an ex or his well-documented substance abuse issues… and thus it’s so damn frustrating that Post Malone spends so much of his delivery in his warbling upper register! I don’t get this, he’s got so much power and richness in his lower range, it’d be closer to the Americana he idolizes, it makes the song feel more brittle than it needs to be. I have to hope he pitches it down live… but otherwise, this is a good track - seems very built for summer radio, let’s see if it has legs.

4. ‘Princess Diana’ by Ice Spice & Nicki Minaj - …well, it was my favourite song on Ice Spice’s EP before the remix, and I’ve liked more Nicki Minaj verses as of recently, I had some hope this could be good? Well, let me mention the things I liked about the original - the percussion is better balanced against the plucky melody with the bass having a sharper, tuneful whir to match the drill beat, and a faster tempo helps Ice Spice sound more invested, even if she’s still pretty monotone and the content isn’t that special. Enter Nicki, who is actually a pretty good contrast to Ice Spice in terms of her expressiveness and while I don’t think many of her punchlines are that special either, I like her intensity, she and Ice Spice have okay chemistry, and how she noticeably wants to christen Ice Spice as a successor in New York rap is a good touch. It reminds me a little of ‘Whole Lotta Money’, the collab Nicki did with BIA two years ago, but Ice Spice has better flows and better production so… yeah, this is good too, I’ll take it.

And that’s the week… a bit of a broader spread than I expected, but there’s quality here. For the worst… ‘Chanel’ by Becky G and Peso Pluma feels like a total misfire, and Dishonourable Mention… I was tempted to give it to Peso Pluma again, but it’s going to ‘Daylight’ by David Kushner because I frankly find it way more offensive to rip off Hozier this badly for Christian schlock. Best of the week… it has to go to ‘See You Again’ by Tyler, The Creator and Kali Uchis, but I’m giving a tie for Honourable Mention… ‘Chemical’ by Post Malone, and ‘Un x100to’ by Bad Bunny and Grupo Frontera - Nicki and Ice Spice were close, but the collab energy between Grupo Frontera and Bad Bunny feels like a better vibe. It’ll be fascinating to see how all of this falls out next week - or if YoungBoy Never Broke Again manages to snag an album bomb, we’ll have to see…