billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - april 24, 2021

I think I might be getting worse at these predictions - not only did Taylor Swift not get a full album bomb for her re-release of Fearless, I seemingly missed the surprise big story surrounding yet another new #1 that should have been on my radar. This came out of nowhere for me, and it really shouldn’t have, especially given the hype that I’ve been talking about and encouraging the past few years…

So let’s talk about it: top ten, a new #1: ‘RAPSTAR’ by Polo G. Now I’ll talk more about the song later, and maybe my ear wasn’t to the ground enough to hear this coming, but let’s make this clear, it’s riding off ridiculously strong streaming and YouTube and nothing else - in other words, it’s another weak #1 and given how streaming fluctuates, I can’t predict this is anything close to long-term. Now what gets interesting is ‘Montero (Call Me By Your Name)’ by Lil Nas X held on to #2, riding off the sales pickup and its own solid streaming, although with radio still being very slow to get onboard, I still have big questions about sustainability. And that reflects on ‘Leave The Door Open’ by Silk Sonic slipping back a bit to #3 on sales and streaming despite seizing the top spot on the radio - again, it still has enough forward momentum to be a larger hit and I’d put money on it climbing back to #1, given that it does have at least some consistency. And I’d honestly say the same for ‘Peaches’ by Justin Bieber, Daniel Caesar and Giveon at #4 - sales and streaming might have dropped back a bit, but its strength and radio is making up for it, really just a margins game at this point. Then stepping back to a lower tier of success we have ‘Save Your Tears’ by The Weeknd actually up to #5 - yeah, the radio might be on a run, but that’s all it has, and that’s just barely enough to stay over ‘Levitating’ by Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby at #6, which is going on a small radio run of its own but just can’t keep up. Then we got another new arrival in the top 10, one I actually did hear about ahead of time: ‘Kiss Me More’ by Doja Cat ft. SZA - and if there’s a song I’d put some money on continuing up, it’s this one, because the radio has moved quickly with this and while the sales aren’t really there, the streaming is, so it could have traction. Then we have ‘Up’ by Cardi B at #8, and if her team is not sounding the alarm about how this is now skidding in streaming and radio, that album rollout could be in trouble - and while I wouldn’t really say the same thing with ‘drivers license’ by Olivia Rodrigo down to #9, it only really has radio and it is on the downswing. Finally, holding firm like a lingering fart we have ‘Astronaut In The Ocean’ by Masked Wolf, which took some hits on sales and streaming but is still solid there - the only reason it didn’t pick up slots is because the radio has slowed a bit, but again, just a matter of time here.

Now we have to get to our losers and dropouts… and I’m not sure how I feel about them, because we had a few big ones in the latter category like ‘Body’ by Megan Thee Stallion and ‘Whoopty’ by CJ that nabbed their year-end list spots… and it looks like ‘Buss It’ by Erica Banks and more importantly ‘Put Your Records On’ by Ritt Momney fell short, which is a win! Truth be told, our losers are kind of all over the place, mostly in new arrivals that didn’t hold like from Demi Lovato, with ‘Dancing With The Devil’ and ‘Met Him Last Night’ with Ariana Grande falling to 98 and 93 respectively, along with ‘Run It Up’ by Lil Tjay, Offset and Moneybagg Yo at 79 and ‘4 Da Gang’ by 42 Dugg and Roddy Ricch at 84. Then there are gains that slid back - 'Quicksand’ by Morray just isn’t getting traction back at 85, and ‘Starting Over’ by Chris Stapleton looks to be rotating back at 42, with country seeing a fair amount of losses with ‘What’s Your Country Song’ by Thomas Rhett at 54, ‘Momma’s House’ by Dustin Lynch at 69, and ‘Wasted On You’ by Morgan Wallen at 97. Then you have album bomb losers from Rod Wave with ‘Street Runner’ at 53 and from Justin Bieber with ‘Anyone’ at 70, and the rest are just kind of scattered - ‘My Head and My Heart’ by Ava Max sliding to 73, ‘Masterpiece’ by DaBaby at 82 with no traction whatsoever, and ‘Real As It Gets’ by Lil Baby and EST Gee at 100.

But where this week gets tough is in our gains and returns… well, not really the gains, because they were pretty much all in country sweeping in for the new season, which on the plus side has ‘Made For You’ by Jake Owen getting a lot of radio support at 43. Unfortunately it also has ‘Down To One’ by Luke Bryan at 61 and ‘The Good Ones’ by Gabby Barrett up to 19 - she’s got a shocking amount of sales traction, and that’s not good in the slightest. And it’s not tough because of Taylor Swift, who in our gains saw ‘Mr. Perfectly Fine’ rise to 30 and in our returns had both ‘Love Story’ and ‘You All Over Me’ with Maren Morris back at 52 and 72 respectively. No, this is because of three high charting returns from the late DMX, who passed away on April 9th. I’ll be honest, I wasn’t prepared to say much here because DMX was a bit before my time and I got into New York hip-hop later than any other subgenre, but in truth it’s because my relationship to DMX and his music was messy to say the least. I can say that his first two albums were downright excellent for what they were in a brand of desperate, explosive late 90s rap that became extremely influential, half because DMX was a man who was never able to find personal peace and he was exploited to great effect to create art from that pain in the same way Ol’ Dirty Bastard was. I can also say that after those two albums the quality dropped off sharply, and even the good albums can feel very dated to a very specific window in hip-hop, and there’s no way to ignore the ugly context in how religion, machismo, and a lot of homophobia intermingled to highlight for as much as he accepted his downward spiral, there were many he was going to take down with him. I’m saying all of this not to damn or praise him - because while people were calling all of this out during the time, his attitudes were widespread and commonly held by a lot of folks throughout that era, people tend to forget how much has changed since - but it does a disservice to the man to not see the whole, complicated picture, hate his music or love it. And what that translates to on the charts, ‘Ruff Ryders’ Anthem’ came back to 16, ‘Party Up (Up In Here)’ is at 40, and ‘X Gon’ Give It To Ya’ by DMX at 46… I’m just happy it’s not ‘Where The Hood At’.

But now onto our new arrivals - and spoilers, there’s a lot of Taylor Swift ahead, starting with…

94. ‘The Way I Loved You (Taylor’s Version)’ by Taylor Swift - I’ll be honest, I’m surprised of the deep cuts, this is one that charted - but it’s a good surprise, because along with ‘White Horse’, I’d say it’s one of the best songs on the original album. I like it because she finds that fairytale guy who should blow her mind and be the happy ever after… and yet she feels nothing because sometimes relationships fizzle out and it just doesn’t work, the chemistry’s not there. And frankly, this is the sort of song that only works better with age - and Swift nails it here! The strings arrangement is more robust, the pop country tones are better balanced, even the little chime touches, and Swift can sell this way more effectively in her early 30s than in her late teens. In other words, for a rerecording this is the best possible improvement, a great song made better - if you never heard it because, again, deep cut, this one is worth looking up, unlike…

88. ‘Fifteen (Taylor’s Version)’ by Taylor Swift - okay, let’s not mince words: I’ve always thought ‘Fifteen’ was the worst song on Fearless because it was going for pretensions of wisdom that couldn’t hold up because Swift was still in her teens herself and couldn’t sell it, and the points of emotional resonance were more placed on her friend Abigail than her! And yet this was a song that had me curious - it’s easier when you’re in your 30s looking back at your teenage years and conveying that wisdom, and to Swift’s credit, the song is considerably more convincing with a more refined arrangement and with her being a better singer… or hell, just being older helps. I still don’t really love the song - it feels plaintive and a bit clunky, but wisdom does make resonate a bit more, so I can say it’s not bad to me anymore.

87. ‘Shy Away’ by twenty one pilots - have to be honest, I have no idea where twenty one pilots are going with this next album. It’s called Scaled and Icy, the album art has a dragon on it and reminds me of a specific stripe of fantasy-inspired classic rock from the 60s and 70s, and this is the lead-off single… and I’m not gonna lie, there is something distinctly retro about the song in that in the main guitar riff and quicker groove it reminds me of a specific new wave/post-punk groove that would have come out of the late 70s… or more likely, the post-punk revival and specifically early music from The Strokes. Now that’s not a bad thing - it gives this song a sharp leanness that Tyler Joseph’s production still can lend swell, especially when the vocals get a little more visceral for the final hook. And the content is good too, playing an older brother role to a figure who’s looking to find their own authentic expression in their art, and Joseph hits a good balance between tough love and genuine advice. It just winds up a really damn solid song - not among their best or most climatic, and I question why this was chosen as a lead single, but it’s the sort of cut I suspect will have staying power - good stuff, I like it.

81. ‘Big Gangsta’ by Kevin Gates - look, there’s a part of me that wants to root a bit for Kevin Gates - initially I was onboard before a few serious wrong turns derailed that appeal for me a couple years ago… so it’s not exactly a good sign that his newest charting hit is a song from 2019 that blew up thanks to TikTok. And… I get why this is getting popular off the hook alone, but man, from there it doesn’t turn out well. For one the clicking drum machine sounds painfully thin especially against the faint warble that passes for a melody, but the larger issue might be Kevin Gates, who has a gift for great hooks, but his verses just go off the rails fast. Some of it just feels corny - the ‘I think my plug racist / all he send is white’, talking about how his sister wanted a new body so he got ‘ass delivered’ - but then there are lines about he got fat and grew some titties, or how the drum on his gun looks like tits, and I’m starting to recognize where his mind really is amidst all the drug running. Couple that with how his flow gets sloppier… see, I would say we could just root for Rod Wave and move on, but the hook is good enough here that Kevin Gates could make this a hit if he ran with it. Shame it’s not better, that’s all.

75. ‘You Belong With Me (Taylor’s Version)’ by Taylor Swift - okay, I know she had to rerecord this one, it’s one of her biggest hits from this era, but if ‘Fifteen’ benefited from age to recontextualize the song, ‘You Belong With Me’ has gotten considerably worse. Basically ‘I’m not like other girls: the anthem’, it’s a song that might be relatable in its adolescent whinging and pettiness, but coming from Taylor Swift it’s never been that believable, especially as she stopped playing the outcast in record time. So now in her 30s when you tack on that ugly fizzy guitar over the bridge that doesn’t blend with anything, it makes a barely passable song over a decade ago just not any good. I get why this has an audience and why it ‘worked’ at the time, but I’ve also heard way too many “ironic” frat boys sing this at karaoke and even if Swift is a better singer now, this is a worse arrangement - next!

71. ‘Fearless (Taylor’s Version)’ by Taylor Swift - have to be honest, I’m a little surprised that of the rerecordings, it’s these ones that charted. Now a title track, you can explain - it’s the first song on the album, apparently it’s a fan favourite - but I was lukewarm on this years ago and I still am. The rerecording punches up the bass and hammond organ a bit and Swift might sound better, but still can’t get around some inconsistent drum mixing and the fact that it’s still a pretty clumsy track from a writing standpoint. I could see how it might have more resonance with experience - not having any fear to fall in love is more relevant when you’ve been burned so many times before, but again, there’s no rewrites or tuning to the content so this is still her first kiss and I’m left thinking teenagers often aren’t scared to fall in love! For me, this is just fine - not all that good, not bad either, I couldn’t care less.

65. ‘Forever & Always (Taylor’s Version)’ by Taylor Swift - okay, so we have another fan favourite, this one also apparently about Joe Jonas, and this one I do understand why it picked up the traction it did - it’s a song that captures the panic of the relationship in mid-collapse, where you don’t know what’s happening or why, especially when they said forever. And this… just feels like a more polished version of the original, where Swift sounds better and the mix is balanced but the song doesn’t hit as strongly, which I think holds true to the content which still feels really adolescent and kind of passive aggressive in approaching all of this. It doesn’t really feel like something Swift would write today, and it doesn’t quite work as well - I put this one up to more nostalgia than anything else… I just wish the rerecording of ‘White Horse’ charted.

7. ‘Kiss Me More’ by Doja Cat ft. SZA - so this is Doja Cat’s lead off single for her next album and I have to be honest, with ‘Streets’ still on its run I’m a little surprised that she’s now pushing another single… but then I remember Hot Pink dropped in late 2019 and then realize this timetable makes sense, where I think Doja Cat has just had more sustainability than expected. But alright, she’s teaming up with SZA and Dr. Luke is nowhere near the production, how did this turn out? Honestly, I dig this - yes, it’s pulling on an interpolation of Olivia Newton-John’s ‘Physical’ and I’m left thinking that there’s other pop disco cuts from that era that you could draw on, and it’s probably not the best idea to draw a comparison to Dua Lipa’s ‘Physical’ which is on a different tier, but the guitar-backed groove is well balanced, there’s a playfulness to the song that adds a lot of charm, and while I’m not sure Doja Cat and SZA make the most of any interplay, they’ve got a lot of loose, horny energy on the song that’s playful and likable. I’m not sure it’s got a factor to make it more than just very good - which has been a recurring issue I’ve had with Doja Cat - but outside of that, I can dig this; good song.

1. ‘RAPSTAR’ by Polo G - it’s funny, I’ve been cooler on Polo G in recent weeks as it has felt like his content has lost a bit of flavour in comparison with the more developed and mature insight he previously showcased, so I’ll admit I was nervous about this song going to #1… but it turns out I wound up liking this a decent bit. Now I will say it is what you’d expect from Polo G in terms of somewhat melodic delivery, a desaturated melody this time coming from a ukulele, a trap beat that really could be a bit better blended, some nice touches of pianos, but this is the good side of Polo G meeting expectations. Yes, the hook is a flex, but it sure as hell doesn’t sound like he’s getting much out of it, especially by the verses where you can tell he’s drained and tired in trying to split both the street life and his newfound success, especially if it doesn’t really feel rewarding and he has to go back to the drugs. In particular the second verse is really strong, where he wants to talk about his feelings but it feels rehearsed and mechanical to do so, and so he’s got to throttle back his frustration and anger because he doesn’t want to burn more bridges. There’s a legit core here - and while I don’t love how easily it can slip towards cliche and I don’t put it among his best, it’s a nice upturn and I’m fine with this being his first #1 - solid stuff.

So yeah, this wound up a pretty good week, where I can even see the appeal in the songs I don’t like. Because yeah, ‘Big Gangsta’ by Kevin Gates is getting the Dishonourable Mention, but the hook is still strong… and while that might be true about ‘You Belong With Me’ by Taylor Swift, that song has long-exhausted all my patience and is the worst here, especially with this rerecording. Best of the week… I have to give that to Taylor as well, because ‘The Way I Loved You’ is a legit great song made better, and I’m going to give a tie for Honourable Mention: ‘Shy Away’ by twenty one pilots and ‘RAPSTAR’ by Polo G, because I do see both of them working for what they are even if they don’t blow my mind. Next week… the fallout unless Slime Language 2 dominates the Hot 100, so stay tuned for that…