billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - april 16, 2022

This week wound up busier than I expected. Yes, we got the big new #1 - thank god, although projections have it getting replaced again next week, so it looks like the charts are finally getting into gear, and that means more activity in general. So what I may have projected as a slower week might have more new arrivals than I was expecting - whether they would be enough to break the cruft of mediocrity around the Hot 100, that’s a different question.

But the big change happened in our top 10, where debuting at #1 - the first time any song has this year - it’s ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles. And let’s make this clear: the top of the Hot 100 has been relatively weak, so this doesn’t really surprise me, but it still impressive - enormous streaming breakthrough backed up by a solid radio push and great sales, the rollout for this was sensibly done across the board, so it will be kind of funny if Jack Harlow sweeps in next week as a serious challenger, but I’m not about to complain about the action. The better news is that it pushed back ‘Heat Waves’ by Glass Animals to #2, which is still strong on streaming and rules the radio… but you can also tell they’re pushing it out the door, and that means it could be vulnerable to ‘Big Energy’ by Latto with Mariah Carey and DJ Khaled, which is dominant on sales and has a considerable radio push and streaming… but not enough in any margin to do anything beyond hold up. Hell, that’s what happened as ‘Stay’ by Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber fell past it to #4, which is sinking quickly on radio and streaming right now, which opens up the door for ‘Enemy’ by Imagine Dragons and JID at #5, which still has radio traction but lags there and ever so slightly on streaming. Now this shoves back ‘Super Gremlin’ by Kodak Black to #6 - this is where only having streaming will hold you back - as well as ‘Ghost’ by Justin Bieber to #7, which looks like it’s hit its radio peak and is getting rotated out. Not so with ‘Woman’ by Doja Cat at #8, where its radio growth is slowing but it is making up the margins… more than what I can say for ‘abcdefu’ by GAYLE at #9, which is just fading out naturally, which’ll probably be the case for ‘THATS WHAT I WANT’ by Lil Nas X going forward, as it looks to have finally hit its radio peak.

This takes us to our losers and dropouts, and… honestly, a lot of it has just been newer entries that don’t catch anything, the only real notable dropouts being ‘High’ by The Chainsmokers, ‘Beautiful Lies’ by Yung Bleu and Kehlani, and ‘half of my hometown’ by Kelsea Ballerini and Kenny Chesney; it just never got the extended push it really needed, what a shame. And when we go to the losers… well, outside of the Encanto losses for ‘Surface Pressure’ by Jessica Darrow at 51, ‘Dos Oruguitas’ by Sebastian Yatra at 76, and ‘What Else Can I Do?’ by Diane Guerrero and Stephanie Beatriz at 90, the rest are a bunch of songs that just aren’t catching. ‘What Happened To Virgil’ by Lil Durk and Gunna isn’t much of a second hit at 41, ‘No Love’ by Summer Walker and SZA slid to 56 off the remix, ‘Soy El Unico’ by Yahritza Su Esencia fell off the debut to 57 - as did ‘make up sex’ by Machine Gun Kelly and blackbear to 80 - ‘Nobody Like U’ by 4*TOWN hit 59, and ‘To Be Loved By You’ by Parker McCollum is skidding late to 75. The good news is that there’s a lot of crap not sticking either, like ‘Thinking With My Dick’ by Kevin Gates and Juicy J at 67, ‘Handsomer’ by Russ and ktlyn at 73, and that godawful ‘Tom’s Diner’ cover at 92; hey, maybe we can get lucky here after all.

Well, I say that, but then I look at the gains and returns and I wonder - yes, ‘Get Into It (Yuh)’ by Doja Cat is finally being pushed properly back at 94, but we also saw returns for ‘I Hate YoungBoy’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again at 84 and ‘City Of Gods’ by Fivio Foreign, Kanye West, and Alicia Keys at 97, although I expect that one to get a sizable jump from the album in the next week or so. And when we look to our gains… well, a lot of it is country and not good country at that: ‘Slow Down Summer’ by Thomas Rhett at 43, ‘Trouble With A Heartbreak’ by Jason Aldean at 72, ‘Come Back As A Country Boy’ by Blake Shelton at 81, and ‘She Likes It’ by Russell Dickerson and Jake Scott at 86. You know things might be dire when the best of our gains is ‘Nail Tech’ by Jack Harlow at 58, and even then, not saying much!

But of course, that means we’ve got a solid ten new arrivals to plug up the gaps, so let’s get started with…

99. ‘Desesperados’ by Rauw Alejandro & Chencho Corleone - so this is one of those songs that’s been a global hit for around four months and only now is crossing over to the United States, which did have me curious where it would fall given that Rauw Alejandro has showcase a little more willingness to experiment with his sound, even within reggaeton. Shame that really doesn’t show up with this track - yeah, the fizzy percussion has a bit more gentle bounce off the rubbery bass, but the watery melody is barely audible and it’s hard to escape the feeling that this is just another stock reggaeton cut where the vocals feel overly compressed and the two guys don’t have much chemistry as they croon about being so horny that they can’t even get to the hotel to screw - and really, Chencho Corleone’s squawk is right on the borderline of being really obnoxious. Honestly, if you were hoping for another ‘Todo de Ti’, I’m not sure this lives up to expectations, but as someone who really wasn’t expecting much here… it’s not bad, but it’s not memorable either, and that’s a problem.

98. ‘Blood All On It’ by Gucci Mane ft. Key Glock & Young Dolph - am I the only one bothered by the fact that this feels more like a leftover Young Dolph song than anything Gucci Mane himself put together, especially as he has the hook and the leadoff verse? Seriously, we’re still doing this, especially for a song where the hook’s sentiment is that there’s blood all over the money? It’s not helped by some aggressively tinny synths where higher frequencies pierce through behind the arranged sample and piano touches before the trap percussion picks up more rattling presence, or how Gucci’s vocal fidelity is easily the worst on the entire track, or how none of the content rises to much beyond bargain barrel flexing where Key Glock mentions codeine in his urine and how the girl Young Dolph was fucking caught the flu because he had on too much ice. Honestly, the reason this is getting any traction is the video and name recognition, and even then it feels painfully generic at best - next!

96. ‘4KT Baby’ by YoungBoy Never Broke Again - okay, so apparently the deal here is that this is from the last album YoungBoy has with Atlantic, which he’s prepping to drop this year and it couldn’t come fast enough. Not because it’s going to make his music better without label interference, but likely without a budget or connections it’ll mean the road to getting songs to chart would get a lot steeper. And honestly, if what we’re getting is this, with its weedy synths, YoungBoy barely staying on flow as his voice gets increasingly hoarse as he relishes the thoughts of shooting people, I’m not sure I’m going to miss much. Yeah, the bassline is actually well-developed, but given just how much material YoungBoy has pushed in this lane, that’s not enough; I can’t see myself caring about this.

91. ‘Complete Mess’ by 5 Seconds Of Summer - I’ll admit I’m a little surprised to see a new 5 Seconds Of Summer song on the Hot 100 - their 2020 album didn’t really make much headway, Ashton Irwin actually made a pretty fascinating grunge solo project that same year, and I was just assuming they were on their way out. But hey, given they were trying for pop punk when it was long out of fashion in the mid-2010s, maybe they lasted just long enough to catch the wave again… but that’s not what this is. Hell, if anything especially in the melody it reminds me of a lot of elegantly sweeping late 90s rock timbres with slight electronic augmentation, especially as the guitars open up after the second hook for something I wouldn’t quite call a shredding solo, but it’s not a bad idea - certainly better than that fake snap across the first verse. Hell, for as well as their frontman Michael Clifford produces this song to have some space and bombast, I was surprised how well they replicated that swell, even if I think it’s missing that next gear to truly go over the top. I also think the lyrics are a little underwhelming - the benefit with rock of that era was that it often leaned just abstract enough to justify the gravitas, which is what you can tell they’re trying with how they lean on imagery of colours and heaven and hell, but the relatively basic hook and lovestruck sentiment feels a bit thin; again, it’s looking for that next gear. But hey, this is a tone in 90s nostalgia that I do miss, especially given how well 5 Seconds Of Summer are willing to lean on a more robust vocal arrangement, and… yeah, this is pretty damn good, I’ll take it.

88. ‘Take My Name’ by Parmalee - this is the sort of song that gets made when a band is utterly out of ideas but saw a smidge of success with ‘Just The Way’ so they’re choosing to lean into it - on some level it’s essentially harmless, but it feels so sterile that any attempt at romance feels utterly plastic, between the fake handclaps and drum machines to the beyond basic melody to how the writing feels like a first draft at best. I’m not against bands making a sentimental proposal song - although centering so much of it around the conceit of the girl taking his name is iffy - but you want to include details or flavour to give this love story character, where the most we get is how they reflect how anybody might think he’s the last guy to talk like this. And I don’t buy that for a second - you’re a band that’s beyond generic and has been out of ideas for damn near a decade, of course you’re going to sound like this! I don’t think this is quite as humiliating as ‘Just The Way’, even if I’m fairly certain this is reusing so many of the same chords, but that doesn’t make it remotely good, and if Nashville radio doesn’t find something better to replace it, we might be stuck with it. Thankfully, we have another option…

82. ‘Damn Strait’ by Scotty McCreery - so I didn’t review Scotty McCreery’s album from last year, mostly because it had two songs I considered legit great and the rest felt like boyfriend country filler, which I expected would be the stuff pushed to radio. Thankfully, I was very wrong, because this is the best song from that album and it’s now getting a proper push and… yeah, this is excellent! I’m normally pretty harsh on songs that lean heavily on references to other tracks - and let’s be real, this song is pulling on a lot of same formula as McCreery worked in his best song ‘Feel Good Summer Song’, struggling with the emotional power of country music that only serves to remind him of the girl who has left him - but that’s a great formula and this doesn’t just recycle that sound, especially leaning into the warm, pedal steel-saturated neotraditional tones that George Strait made his own for decades. I think the major difference - outside of the piano accents and an excellent vocal arrangement for McCreery - comes in the writing, not just in the clever ways that McCreery folds in the song titles but also how much it hurts to see an artist you dearly love and can quote back to front become associated with real loss and heartbreak, especially when you’re very much not over it; compare to when Old Dominion put out ‘Song For Another Time’ and that feels like a gimmick, it’s hollow in comparison. So yeah, it’s legit terrific and while I’m not sure I’d put it among the best of any given year, I’m thrilled McCreery made the bold choice to push it - let’s make it a hit.

71. ‘Stick’ by JID & J. Cole ft. Kenny Mason & Sheck Wes - so, Dreamville as a label put out a Gangsta Grillz mixtape with DJ Drama and everything - after a listen or two I think it’s decent, I’m still on the fence whether or not I might cover it - but I will say I’m a bit surprised it hasn’t received more traction this week outside of one song, which gives me the impression that they’re throwing as much muscle behind pushing JID as they possibly can. Not about to complain about that, so the song in question… have to be honest, I immediately started laughing when amidst all the arranged bombast of the instrumental and the gritty trap percussion and the slapdash mixing that you expect from a mixtape, Kenny Mason is hollering about how he got a brand new stick; not saying he can’t sell it, he absolutely can, but it’s teetering on the line of abject silliness when you can imagine pairing that hook with tiktoks of giving puppies some tree branches; not gonna lie, I checked TikTok and there were far less of those videos than I was hoping, less workout montages, more puppies! It’s not helped by JID starting his verse with the line, ‘hand on my dick and hand on my gun' - and honestly I don’t think his verse is all that impressive, it’s not a good sign when Sheck Wes sounds like he’s trying harder. But then J. Cole ends the song and steals the entire show, mostly with the basketball references that guarantee this’ll wind up in a playoff playlist, but then he ramps up his intensity to finish the song and even if it ultimately is just about gunplay, there’s more intensity and character here. So yeah, I’m a bit surprised I enjoyed this as much as I did, but this is solid for what it is - I’ll take it.

38. ‘When You’re Gone’ by Shawn Mendes - you know, after Wonder and the subsequent breakup with Camila Cabello, who was the central figure behind the majority of that album, I had a lot of open questions where the hell Shawn Mendes would take his career, especially as Wonder was pretty awful and by many metrics outside of Canada an absolute bomb. But hey, the buzz with this song was pretty high… and wow, it was actually mostly worth it, because for a well-balanced, slick pop song that screams ‘not over her’, Mendes delivers. Now I’m on the fence whether this is great - the acoustics and vocal pickups feel a little overcompressed alongside some of the gauzy layers on the hook and Mendes is not exactly a strong presence that can sell this - give this to Niall Horan and I think I’d be a lot more impressed - but the groove is more defined that the majority of Mendes’ material, and even if the writing is basic, it effectively gets across the ideas underneath it just fine. And considering this is probably the sharpest hook he’s had in years… yeah, it’s a good song. Not great, but I’ll take it.

33. ‘In My Head’ by Lil Tjay - you know you’re getting old or have been doing this too long when the first thing you note about a Lil Tjay drill song is how they sampled Iyaz’s ‘Replay’, a song that I’m fairly certain everyone has mostly forgotten unless you’re a pop nerd. Now I never disliked that song much, but it feels like nobody understood the greatest strength of that sample came in how catchy the vocal melody is, so suffocating it behind the shuffling drill skitter, some very barebone acoustics, and Lil Tjay flowing off rhythm from the sample leaves the track feeling really off-balance, and not in the good way. Now the one thing I’ll give Lil Tjay is that he gets that the song should be playing for the more sentimental side, which is a very different lane than his player side, but there’s no sweetness to play into it - it’s more trying to go far darker angst, and with that sample, it feels off. Granted, I don’t think this is precisely bad so much as a failed experiment - if this tanks on the charts quickly, I wouldn’t be surprised.

1. ‘As It Was’ by Harry Styles - and now, the big new single for Harry Styles, the one we’ve all been waiting for since Fine Line had a shockingly strong singles run even as I consider the album a tedious step down from this debut… and I’m not sure about this one. Let me start by saying that the springy synth tune playing off the sharper drums gives the song some 80s retro flavour - reminds me a solid bit of Lower Dens, especially with these synth tones and this tempo - and while the bells coming in are a nice touch, outside of that synthline there’s not much in the way of a hook that really takes advantage of that tempo, and it’s not like Harry Styles is giving it much in the way of a striking performance. Now the idea behind the lyrics is pretty cool - the world is passing him by, where there’s this figure still in his life that cares about him but he knows that it doesn’t feel the same and has to let go, where the drama comes between that dull-eyed pragmatism and any sort of romantic gesture. But I’ve never been all that fond of songs that indulge this sort of stasis, where it might be more realistic but kind of misses a major opportunity to ramp up the emotion. I dunno, for a while now I’ve had the feeling that Harry Styles is trying to write himself as weirder than he actually is, and this song is a prime example of it; certainly catchy and well-composed, but it’s not really clicking for me, in terms of style or substance. Not bad by any means, not great either.

But that being said, this was a pretty damn solid week, and I’ve got some choices here. For the worst… that’s going to ‘Take My Name’ by Parmalee, with Dishonourable Mention to ‘Blood All On It’ by Gucci Mane, Key Glock, and the late Young Dolph, it just feels in poor taste there. But Best of the Week… well, ‘Damn Strait’ by Scotty McCreery locks that up, but I’m going to go for a tie for Honourable Mention, with ‘Complete Mess’ by 5 Seconds Of Summer alongside ‘Stick’ by JID, J. Cole, Kenny Mason and Sheck Wes - yeah, I think I’m about as surprised as anyone. Next week… well, a big song from Jack Harlow, plus whatever Fivio Foreign and Coi Leray do, so stay tuned!