billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - april 1, 2023

I’m a little perplexed on how I want to consider this week. On the one hand, I think Luke Combs is likely getting an album bomb next week, so most of what happened here is not guaranteed to stick around. On the other hand, this week is both busier than you might expect and kind of all over the place, especially when it comes to the new entries, and it’ll be fascinating to see what might gain traction in the long-run… if anything.

Unfortunately, none of this has really carried over into the top 10, where for another week ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus holds the #1… but honestly, I don’t put a lot of stock in it going forward - it’s slipping on streaming, sales are down, and radio may have peaked. That makes it vulnerable to ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen, which is remaining really strong on streaming, and while it lags on sales, it’s going to be a radio rush to see if it can beat the margins here. This places ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA in an awkward position at #3 - it had a really good radio week and positionally it’s right behind ‘Last Night’, but this is where the margin there and little sales to speak of really kill it. Then there’s ‘Creepin’ by Metro Boomin, 21 Savage and The Weeknd up to #4 - it actually surged on streaming to rise on position, but radio is wavering, and I don’t see it breaking the margin here, whereas ‘Die For You’ by The Weeknd and Ariana Grande went to #5 because despite stable streaming the radio margin is not holding up. Then we have ‘Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2’ by PinkPantheress and Ice Spice at #6 - the streaming is stable and the radio is moving fast on it, but this to me feels like a margin’s game - but it held over ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift at #7 as the radio slowly rotates it out. Then we have ‘Calm Down’ by Rema and Selena Gomez holding at #8 - the radio really likes this one even if the streaming isn’t there - and this takes us to the two breakthroughs into the top 10 I was expecting last week. First off is ‘Players’ by Coi Leray at #9 - the radio adores this even if the sales and streaming are iffy - and then there’s ‘Rock and a Hard Place’ by Bailey Zimmerman at #10, which has better streaming than you’d expect and some modicum of radio stability, which is what got it into the top 10 as other songs collapse around him - still a surprise that I did not see coming!

But while we’re in this territory, our losers and dropouts, where outside of a bunch of forgettable Morgan Wallen cuts we have two big ones in the latter category: ‘Lift Me Up’ by Rihanna, and ‘Made You Look’ by Meghan Trainor - both of these are going to make the year end, we just have to deal with that. And for the losers… well, Nicki Minaj once again has no traction with ‘Red Ruby Da Sleeze’ sliding to 47, and Miley Cyrus saw losses off the debut for ‘River’ at 59 and ‘Jaded’ at 97… but this is still the Morgan Wallen story, I have to say it. So with that… ‘I Wrote The Book’ at 46, ‘Man Made A Bar’ with Eric Church at 51, ‘98 Braves’ at 61, ‘Sunrise’ at 62, ‘Whiskey Friends’ at 80, ‘Devil Don’t Know’ at 86, ‘Neon Star (Country Boy Lullaby)’ at 90, ‘Born With A Beer In My Hand’ at 94, and ‘Me + All Your Reasons’ at 99.

But of course things have to eventually replace him, and in our returns and gains… it’s kind of all over the place, and a Luke Combs album bomb is going to destabilize all of this next week! Looking at our returns… I’m happy that ‘Human’ by Cody Johnson is back at 91, but I don’t expect it to last next week, along with ‘Gold’ by Dierks Bentley at 93 and ‘here with me’ by d4vd at 98. Now I think the gains are a bit tough to gauge - on the one hand, I did predict that ‘Favorite Song’ by Toosii would keep rising to 21, and same with’ What He Didn’t Do’ by Carly Pearce at 37, and ‘Love You Anyway’ by Luke Combs is going to surge next week off rising to 49. Then there are the smaller gains I expect to be wiped away for ‘Dancin’ In The Country’ by Tyler Hubbard to 83 and ‘Heaven’ by Niall Horan to 82 off their returns. But the big story is probably the success of Peso Pluma across three gains this week, likely buoyed alongside his new arrivals. Ergo, his debut from last week ‘Por Las Noches’ rose to 72, the return for ‘PRC’ with Natanael Cano went to 73, and ‘AMG’ with Natanael Cano and Gabito Ballesteros went 70… I’m a little baffled as to why he’s getting such a push, I don’t see the starpower, but again, the real key is if he lasts another week.

And while we’re in this territory, we have a very healthy list of new arrivals, most of which won’t last, so let’s start with…

100. ‘Cupid’ by Fifty Fifty - I think I need to have a better idea of which k-pop groups have crossover traction, because I feel like I’m encountering more of them seemingly from out of nowhere. Now Fifty Fifty is newer - they only formed last year and dropped their debut - and this appears to be their first single to get serious traction simultaneously in South Korea and the US… and I kind of get it? The nu-disco production is well-balanced with a solid punchy groove with tangible gloss, and the girls have more tangible personality between them - they’re one of the k-pop girl groups where the differing vocal timbres really stick out for a song all about the mingled frustration of falling in love again when they really shouldn’t. I definitely think there’s a lot of Doja Cat in this formula, but especially in the singing I think Fifty Fifty has the edge with a little more polish. So yeah, I actually really dig this - I don’t think it’s gonna last, but good stuff.

96. ‘Nasty’ by Russ - how many times are we going to keep attempting the Russ experiment? He’s one of the most tangible reminders that consistent critical backlash doesn’t really impact you if you have a diehard fanbase who won’t listen, and now with this… good lord, who was asking for another sex song from this guy, especially with the bass that swamps the entire mix including his vocals against the spare clap and faint whistle of melody? And yes, I know that this is built for TikTok as it doesn’t even run two minutes, and to Russ’ credit the only really awful line is ‘topped me off in the morning / now that’s what I call a head start', but I think what annoys me the most is how goddamn basic it sounds with Russ bringing nothing close to intensity; he can’t sell sensuality with any kind of atmosphere, it’s just empty sleaze at the most basic level. Perhaps not his worst song, but certainly disposable… but speaking of basic…

95. ‘Death’ by Melanie Martinez - the last time Melanie Martinez charted on the Hot 100 was back when she was on The Voice - I would preferred that was the last time anyone cared about her. And I’m not even talking about the allegations - the situation is made abundantly easier for me by her music being mediocre at best and rancid, self-impressed garbage at worst. But she’s also cultivated a fanbase who have refused to listen to backlash - or seemingly any of the other artists Martinez has shamelessly ripped off - and that’s led to this single actually charting. And I’ll say this: it’s not as faintly gross as a lot of Melanie Martinez’s material, but that might make it worse in that it exposes how basic her theatricality actually is. A big part of this is how overprocessed her vocals sound against the acoustics and strings - and wow, I forgot how clunky of a songwriter she was and how many rhymes are just dropped - but then she drops into this buzzy electric guitar knock on the hook with bricked-out percussion that sounds like something Halsey would have abandoned in 2019 for good reason. And then there’s the writing - flatly obvious and lacking greater poetic detail as usual, obviously it’s implying some sort of revival for Martinez and you shouldn’t be scared of death anyway as she’s drawn back for some deeply held love and we all die anyways… but that gives away the stakes, people are afraid of death because they don’t know what happens, and who says it’s more than just you who comes back - or the entire song is another extended career metaphor and I’m giving this way more thought than it deserves. Whatever, it’s not as bad as Melanie Martinez can get - I can think of songs on Crybaby and K-12 that are worse - but that’s not an endorsement of this basic junk - next!

92. ‘Moonlight’ by Kali Uchis - okay, one song by Kali Uchis didn’t work for me - actually I had a really strong negative reaction, I’m willing to give another chance here - and to her credit, this is more of a blissed out love song with another blubbery funk bassline and spare melody opposite some sharper percussion and chimes, and a simpler focus lets Kali Uchis rely on her richer vocal tone for a desire to get high and fuck. Her voice reminds me a little of Kimbra when she did R&B - and then I’m reminded of how much of a disappointment Kimbra’s album was this year - and I do think the song is a little overmixed in its glassy humidity, it could afford to be a bit more organic, but that’s nitpicking. Much better song, sets a good vibe, I’ll give it a pass.

88. ‘ICU’ by Coco Jones - I feel like I should have known about Coco Jones before now - she’s been putting out EPs for over a decade, although it looks like it’s taken more of a backseat to her film and TV career, which has predominantly been driven off of Disney. But now apparently she’s signed to Def Jam with this being her first single that’s taken off… and I’m a bit conflicted. On the one hand, I actually really like the instrumentation here with the spare percussion, playful pianos, gentle guitars, and ethereal vocals - it’s absolutely going for a throwback R&B vibe but that could really work… but man, the vocal production lets her down here, between the weird flatness to the backing vocals to how compressed and processed her lead is. And I don’t know why this is - she’s been in the industry working for years, if she’s got tangible talent they shouldn’t have to do this. Outside of that… the lyrics are a bit thin in this love that she’s constantly drawn back to, but it’s not a deal breaker - honestly, I just want whoever engineered this to fail because this is decent, but should be excellent.

87. ‘Coco Chanel’ by Eladio Carrion & Bad Bunny - okay, Eladio Carrion feels like the sort of artist I should have known about - he’s in the reggaeton scene, he’s been releasing albums and charting pretty consistently, and on his newest project he got cosigns from both Lil Wayne and Bad Bunny, with this being his breakthrough. And I’m not sure about this one - the squonking synth that gets washed out as the percussion switches from a padded groove to clicking Latin trap, and while Eladio Carrion has a bit more personality and actually balanced with Bad Bunny pretty well, when you translate the song and realize it’s glorified brand name porn where the disinterest from both men is palpable, you realize that this only got here on groove and while it’s nice, it’s not exceptional. I just don’t see much of a reason why I’d go back to this - not bad, not exactly good either.

84. ‘El Gordo Trae El Mando’ by Chino Pacas - So there’s a significant chunk of regional Mexican music that charted this week… from what I can tell, this guy has about three songs and this is the only one with him solo that dropped in January this year, and it doesn’t even eclipse two minutes. And I’m starting to run out of things to say about these - the nasal vocals, the clicking acoustics and farty horns because it’s still produced to sound like a demo, and in this case translating the lyrics about flexing and gunplay that really clashes with this production. Hell, there’s not even a hook here, it feels like a damn fragment - not a bad one per se, I’ve heard worse in this scene, but the fact that these songs run together so quickly is not a good sign long term, just saying

77. ‘La Bebe’ by Yng Lvcas & Peso Pluma - I get the feeling that Peso Pluma is the guy from the Mexican scene getting something of an industry push… which is why he’s now on a remix of a song that dropped in late 2021. The original artist is Yng Lvcas - from what I can tell he’s got a few mixtapes that didn’t seem to go far, I can’t be the only one who thinks this feels exploitative in the same way record labels grab other viral acts for one song to then leave them - and with this… they dropped Peso Pluma on a stock reggaeton groove with blocky percussion, a muted melody, no momentum, and everyone sounding like they’re on a steady IV drip of lean. I discovered that Peso Pluma did say he wanted to make reggaeton, but he blew up with that Mexican sound, so going for an already dated reggaeton groove feels like bad label advice, especially for the sort of stock horniness and flexing I feel like I’ve seen done far better so many times before. Just going to say it now, this feels like a big misstep, we’ll have to see how it falls out.

67. ‘Eat Your Young’ by Hozier - So I was going to review the Hozier EP - I was really excited for it - but it was only three songs and the one I actually liked is not going to chart, but this one did. And as someone who likes Hozier a lot… I think this is a miss, I’m sorry. Yes, the opulent strings and bombast against the echoing guitars sound epic and I really like the fluttery piano against the cello on the outro, the sort of gothic swell that Hozier could normally command… so why in the Nine Hells is he spending his hook in his falsetto register? He’s got one of the richest timbres in his midrange working today, why abandon it for this crooning that doesn’t remotely flatter his strengths? What sucks is that the lyrics are good too - the sort of graphic, late capitalist nightmare written from the villain’s perspective that goes into cannibalism building off of Jonathan Swift’s A Modest Proposal, that’s potent as hell! But it feels neutered of that darker power, and it’s so damn frustrating as someone who wants to see Hozier get more traction! I don’t think this is bad, but given that it’s so obvious where it could kick ass and it doesn’t… man, that’s frustrating.

45. ‘5 Leaf Clover’ by Luke Combs - See, this is why I’ve come to like Luke Combs and his consistency, especially in the wake of the newest album cycle where he put out his best work to date and is picking really good singles, with ‘5 Leaf Clover’ being another winner for me! Of course he leans on the fiddle and warm acoustics that slight Irish touch in the melody - kind of inspired timing for St. Patrick’s Day for the release - and it’s a song all about being thankful for all the fortune he’s found in his life, where he’d have been content with just getting by and he’s now received way more. It does have that feel of being a little too comfortable - I feel like the song is missing maybe a short bridge to really put it into a higher tier, with a shade more complexity - but this is absolutely me nitpicking; this is a great song and single choice, looking forward to the nice spike it’ll get next week!

30. ‘Set Me Free, Pt. 2’ by Jimin - alright, we’re now adding to the canon of BTS solo releases with Jimin’s turn - and make no mistake, the stans have really gotten behind him, with his single for next week targeting a really big debut. And… oof, I’m not sure I’m on board with this one, with the huge operatic horns and bombastic backing vocals and percussion that don’t match JImin’s overproduced squawking rapping - he’s a considerably better singer and he does a lot less of that - but even when he does, his timbre just does not have the power to command this mix for as much as he darts into his falsetto. And the problem is that there’s just not much to support that bombast - it has the feel of a ‘I’m back, bitch’ single, where there’s so much about seeking freedom and everyone getting out his way that it feels really overblown if you’ve not bought into the BTS story. In other words, I come down on NF when he says a lot more and it feels just as hollow with all the bombast… this just doesn’t work for me.

26. ‘Ella Baila Solo’ by Eslabon Armado & Peso Pluma - okay, this looks like something that resembles a better push for Peso Pluma - Eslabon Armado already got a charting single back in 2021, both acts have more of a traditional Mexican sound, this makes all the sense in the world for synergy and a proper push… the difference would be to make something that feels like a fully composed and produced song instead of with all the staccato horns sounding as flat and squonking at the front of the mix with the fast-picked brittle acoustics competing for oxygen alongside the spare groove and bare-bones harmonies - there’s not even a hook on this thing! I guess for these guys playing wingmen for each other there’s not much needed, and I’m sure there’s a communal, cultural context that is not clicking for me but works for the target audience. I also know that if these songs had structure and competent production and weren’t obviously getting rushed for a quick buck by their labels, I wouldn’t hear all the same excuses. It’s not even that it’s bad, it’s just nowhere near as good as it could be, that’s all.

12. ‘All Of The Girls You Loved Before’ by Taylor Swift - So I’m in Canada and the Eras tour dates have not been announced up here yet, but I don’t expect I’ll go because I’m not really interested in taking out a second mortgage on my condo. But hey, Taylor Swift has something for all the folks not going or who were thoroughly fucked by Ticketmaster, in this case a song that was intended for Lover in 2019 but missed the cut, and as someone who actually likes that album more than most - I go back to it as a whole more than folklore - I was curious about it. And… I get why this was cut? Lover is probably overlong as it is and this doesn’t really wow me - the spare reverbed synths with the faint guitars and leaden percussion, where the song almost seems to be leaning towards some smoky R&B courtesy of Louis Bell’s production, and while the sentiment of all of their past partners being who shaped them to now work together is a decent one, I don’t love how Swift ended the hook with ‘but I love you more’ - it’s definitely one of those catty moments that doesn’t feel as sharp it would become a few years later. I get why it was pushed, it’s generally fine, but after Midnights I’ve discovered I’ve got higher standards for Swift, and throwaways just don’t cut it for me anymore.

So that was a long week… the worst fall out easy, ‘Death’ by Melanie Martinez with ‘Nasty’ by Russ as the Dishonourable Mention. Best of the week though… okay, ‘5 Leaf Clover’ by Luke Combs is running away with that, but Honourable Mention is trickier… I really wanted it to be Hozier, but I think I have to go with ‘Cupid’ by Fifty Fifty, that was a really nice pleasant surprise. But speaking of Luke Combs, he’s likely got a big album bomb incoming next week, so stay tuned for that!